Didn't <span style="line-height:1.231;">Verizon suggest that half of the iPhone sales are IP5? That would suggest iP5 is selling well, too.</span>
I do wonder, if the so-called low cost iP does emerge, would it sell better than iP4 and iP4S? After all, Apple can't go cheaper than free.
The low cost iPhone will sell better internationally than the 2 year old iPhone 4.
In the US I would think more than half of new iPhones will still be the high end model as it is today due to the high subsidies from wireless carriers.
Since the iPhone came out on Verizon in early 2011, then for the past two years, activations have probably been very close to new unit sales.
However, starting in 1Q 2013, millions of users came due for an upgrade after two years. That means for 2Q 2013, we should begin seeing a much higher percentage of activations being done by used devices.
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How much higher? In the past, used device activations on AT&T (who has had the iPhone the longest) have ranged from 11% to over 20% of all activations.
If similar, Verizon's reported 3.9 million activations would mean they actually sold between 3.1 and 3.5 million new iPhones.
Now, and this is the leap in logic, IF the usual Verizon NEW phone activations = about 11% of new sales continues to hold up, then that would predict total world sales between 28 to 31.5 million.
It'll be interesting to see what it really is.
Very good point, and very important one.
But I wasn't aware there were reliable data on activations of used devices.
Didn't Verizon suggest that half of the iPhone sales are IP5? That would suggest iP5 is selling well, too.
I do wonder, if the so-called low cost iP does emerge, would it sell better than iP4 and iP4S? After all, Apple can't go cheaper than free.
50% iP5 vs 4/4s was last quarter. Not sure if its the same this quarter or not, but I'd imagine it could very well be. The 4/4s are selling very well when given away for free, and the iP5 also gets a huge boost by being given away as a free upgrade.
My guess on the cheap iPhone is it will kind of depend on which is 'nicer'... the cheap iPhone or a two year old iPhone 4. If the cheap phone rivals the 4 it would make more sense for Apple to sell the cheap phone instead and stop the practice of selling old phones. If the cheap phone cut enough corners that the 4/4s is still nicer- people will pick the nicer phone since its 'free' In that case the US market would remain pretty much the same, and the cheap phone would only be offered in other markets.
What numbers is Apple releasing that Samsung isn't?
When does Samsung report numbers? The report total revenue for their "mobile division" and occasionally report certain data points for vague product categories like the "Galaxy S4" (which could include a half dozen devices).
Comments
The low cost iPhone will sell better internationally than the 2 year old iPhone 4.
In the US I would think more than half of new iPhones will still be the high end model as it is today due to the high subsidies from wireless carriers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook
The low cost iPhone will sell better internationally than the 2 year old iPhone 4.
Why? I'd imagine it'd vary from region to region, particularly since Apple is only offering the free iPhone 4 in a small number of regions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KDarling
Of course, those percentages are actually comparing two different measurement units... activations and sales.
(VZ new iPhone activations + VZ used iPhone activations)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(total world new iPhone sales)
Since the iPhone came out on Verizon in early 2011, then for the past two years, activations have probably been very close to new unit sales.
However, starting in 1Q 2013, millions of users came due for an upgrade after two years. That means for 2Q 2013, we should begin seeing a much higher percentage of activations being done by used devices.
--
How much higher? In the past, used device activations on AT&T (who has had the iPhone the longest) have ranged from 11% to over 20% of all activations.
If similar, Verizon's reported 3.9 million activations would mean they actually sold between 3.1 and 3.5 million new iPhones.
Now, and this is the leap in logic, IF the usual Verizon NEW phone activations = about 11% of new sales continues to hold up, then that would predict total world sales between 28 to 31.5 million.
It'll be interesting to see what it really is.
Very good point, and very important one.
But I wasn't aware there were reliable data on activations of used devices.
I'm looking at you Samsung, HTC, LG. Let's free that data into a world of transparency? What are you hiding?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater
Didn't Verizon suggest that half of the iPhone sales are IP5? That would suggest iP5 is selling well, too.
I do wonder, if the so-called low cost iP does emerge, would it sell better than iP4 and iP4S? After all, Apple can't go cheaper than free.
50% iP5 vs 4/4s was last quarter. Not sure if its the same this quarter or not, but I'd imagine it could very well be. The 4/4s are selling very well when given away for free, and the iP5 also gets a huge boost by being given away as a free upgrade.
My guess on the cheap iPhone is it will kind of depend on which is 'nicer'... the cheap iPhone or a two year old iPhone 4. If the cheap phone rivals the 4 it would make more sense for Apple to sell the cheap phone instead and stop the practice of selling old phones. If the cheap phone cut enough corners that the 4/4s is still nicer- people will pick the nicer phone since its 'free' In that case the US market would remain pretty much the same, and the cheap phone would only be offered in other markets.
Quote:
Originally Posted by clayder
Great, but the consensus estimate is 25.5 million and we are not letting you change that now.....
Do you know what consensus estimate means?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spacepower
While all the speculation is fun, it would be nice if other companies released numbers.
I'm looking at you Samsung, HTC, LG. Let's free that data into a world of transparency? What are you hiding?
What numbers is Apple releasing that Samsung isn't?
When does Samsung report numbers? The report total revenue for their "mobile division" and occasionally report certain data points for vague product categories like the "Galaxy S4" (which could include a half dozen devices).
By 'pop' you mean 'tank', right? This is Apple, after all; the only way the stock can go is down.