They have 60 million subscribers which if we assume 70% are on smartphones
Way too high. The last number I found was 40% in 2012. Japan was late to the smartphone game thanks to weird networks and trade protectionism giving the phone market to locals. It will also surprise you, but Japan also has a lot of working class and poor people.
That's not how this one is reported tho. It says that Apple's agreed-upon contract stipulates that 40% of DoCoMo's smartphone sales would have to be iPhones. That would probably necessitate dropping any further Android or WinPhone promotional activity for the time being. Perhaps the report is inaccurate of course.
Yup because Apple and the carriers regularly make their contracts public. Nope.
Apple probably allowed them to put a DoCoMo sticker, no larger than 1" squared, on the bottom of the iPhone box.
I doubt Apple allowed that. It would be a seriously slippery slope. Other carriers might soon begin to demand such a concession. Would Apple go down that road for ~10 million phones a year, if that?
But, neither you nor I know. We'll see shortly after iPhones ship to Docomo and photos hit the net.
Nice 2-3% bump to EPS. Certainly not a game changer, but any positive impact on revenue and EPS helps with things looking flatline at best.
Not a game changer in/of itself. But add China Mobile (coming), aTV, developing markets, iTunes, laptops, iPads, software and its ridiculously low PE ratio (that could easily be justified higher) and you have yourself an $800 stock in 12 months. If Apple increases market share with desktops and/or larger screen touch appliances...it'll further surprise wall street.
Not a game changer in/of itself. But add China Mobile (coming), aTV, developing markets, iTunes, laptops, iPads, software and its ridiculously low PE ratio (that could easily be justified higher) and you have yourself an $800 stock in 12 months. If Apple increases market share with desktops and/or larger screen touch appliances...it'll further surprise wall street.
A TV that's been coming for years, laptops are at best treading water, desktops are declining, it has a low PE because revenue growth topped out and EPS is shrinking. China Mobile isnt going to be much more of a boost than this. The iPhone wont penetrate more than 5% of China Mobile's customers which spread over a couple of years isnt going to move the needle that much.
They need additional revenue streams, they've gotten about all the mileage they are going to get out of smartphones. They shipped about 136 million in 2012. In order to improve EPS by 10% they need to ship about about 27 million more a year...so lets say they manage that and can keep it up going forward, any additional EPS increase will have to come from other avenues.
A TV that's been coming for years, laptops are at best treading water, desktops are declining, it has a low PE because revenue growth topped out and EPS is shrinking. China Mobile isnt going to be much more of a boost than this. The iPhone wont penetrate more than 5% of China Mobile's customers which spread over a couple of years isnt going to move the needle that much.
They need additional revenue streams, they've gotten about all the mileage they are going to get out of smartphones. They shipped about 136 million in 2012. In order to improve EPS by 10% they need to ship about about 27 million more a year...so lets say they manage that and can keep it up going forward, any additional EPS increase will have to come from other avenues.
Doesn't China Mobile have 700 MM subscribers? So isn't 5% of that 35 MM iPhones sold. That's a lot of iPhones in addition to the rest of the fraking world.
A TV that's been coming for years, laptops are at best treading water, desktops are declining, it has a low PE because revenue growth topped out and EPS is shrinking. China Mobile isnt going to be much more of a boost than this. The iPhone wont penetrate more than 5% of China Mobile's customers which spread over a couple of years isnt going to move the needle that much.
They need additional revenue streams, they've gotten about all the mileage they are going to get out of smartphones. They shipped about 136 million in 2012. In order to improve EPS by 10% they need to ship about about 27 million more a year...so lets say they manage that and can keep it up going forward, any additional EPS increase will have to come from other avenues.
Dude, anyone can come on here and just repeat exactly what I said in the opposite.
So while i agree that I have no crystal ball, I do rely more on probability...and on that, I stand by my position (and with my wallet). The weaknesses that I see is not that China Mobile won't be much more of a boost, but more that supply won't be able to keep up with demand. Anyone who thinks that all mileage is accounted for in smartphones is plainly an idiot...you decide. Take one look at statistics, the increasing market of smart phones and the dynamics in play.
In addition, I don't think that Tim Cook just talked out of his butt during the last conference call spewing crap about 2014 being a year of great things...I don't know, maybe. Maybe he has no idea what product/service roll outs are coming so he just made sh!t up.
Desktops are declining but Apple's share will increase. I'm sure you can at least see it's a probability.
You just happen to think that every revenue stream will tank for Apple while I think that most will increase. Time will tell. I have a feeling that 24 months from now, I'll still be on this forum and you'll be long gone.
Comments
They have 60 million subscribers which if we assume 70% are on smartphones
Way too high. The last number I found was 40% in 2012. Japan was late to the smartphone game thanks to weird networks and trade protectionism giving the phone market to locals. It will also surprise you, but Japan also has a lot of working class and poor people.
It reminded me that Apple requiring quotas in European carrier contracts has prompted a preliminary EU investigation over anti competitive practices.
http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/05/27/apples-iphone-sales-tactics-in-europe-under-antitrust-investigation
http://www.dailytech.com/European+Carriers+Tattle+on+Apple+to+EU+for+Anticompetitive+Contracts/article30188.htm
A "preliminary investigation" often amounts to a hill of beans in the EU.
Here's a recent example of the kind of stupidity that is on display with stuff they 'investigate' all the time (look at the last two paras): http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/01/uk-fights-eu-speed-limit-devices
Yup because Apple and the carriers regularly make their contracts public. Nope.
Apple probably allowed them to put a DoCoMo sticker, no larger than 1" squared, on the bottom of the iPhone box.
That. Is. Nuts.:\
Ooh. When the EU collapses, it's going to be worse than I thought.
It is unclear how the two companies came to an agreement and what, if any, concessions Apple made in the process.
[/quote]
I would imagine the conversation went something like this.
A: F*#@ off. OK, how about this, you agree to a quota of 40% of iPhone sales and we give you nothing in return.
I doubt Apple allowed that. It would be a seriously slippery slope. Other carriers might soon begin to demand such a concession. Would Apple go down that road for ~10 million phones a year, if that?
But, neither you nor I know. We'll see shortly after iPhones ship to Docomo and photos hit the net.
Nice 2-3% bump to EPS. Certainly not a game changer, but any positive impact on revenue and EPS helps with things looking flatline at best.
Not a game changer in/of itself. But add China Mobile (coming), aTV, developing markets, iTunes, laptops, iPads, software and its ridiculously low PE ratio (that could easily be justified higher) and you have yourself an $800 stock in 12 months. If Apple increases market share with desktops and/or larger screen touch appliances...it'll further surprise wall street.
Not a game changer in/of itself. But add China Mobile (coming), aTV, developing markets, iTunes, laptops, iPads, software and its ridiculously low PE ratio (that could easily be justified higher) and you have yourself an $800 stock in 12 months. If Apple increases market share with desktops and/or larger screen touch appliances...it'll further surprise wall street.
A TV that's been coming for years, laptops are at best treading water, desktops are declining, it has a low PE because revenue growth topped out and EPS is shrinking. China Mobile isnt going to be much more of a boost than this. The iPhone wont penetrate more than 5% of China Mobile's customers which spread over a couple of years isnt going to move the needle that much.
They need additional revenue streams, they've gotten about all the mileage they are going to get out of smartphones. They shipped about 136 million in 2012. In order to improve EPS by 10% they need to ship about about 27 million more a year...so lets say they manage that and can keep it up going forward, any additional EPS increase will have to come from other avenues.
Doesn't China Mobile have 700 MM subscribers? So isn't 5% of that 35 MM iPhones sold. That's a lot of iPhones in addition to the rest of the fraking world.
A TV that's been coming for years, laptops are at best treading water, desktops are declining, it has a low PE because revenue growth topped out and EPS is shrinking. China Mobile isnt going to be much more of a boost than this. The iPhone wont penetrate more than 5% of China Mobile's customers which spread over a couple of years isnt going to move the needle that much.
They need additional revenue streams, they've gotten about all the mileage they are going to get out of smartphones. They shipped about 136 million in 2012. In order to improve EPS by 10% they need to ship about about 27 million more a year...so lets say they manage that and can keep it up going forward, any additional EPS increase will have to come from other avenues.
Dude, anyone can come on here and just repeat exactly what I said in the opposite.
So while i agree that I have no crystal ball, I do rely more on probability...and on that, I stand by my position (and with my wallet). The weaknesses that I see is not that China Mobile won't be much more of a boost, but more that supply won't be able to keep up with demand. Anyone who thinks that all mileage is accounted for in smartphones is plainly an idiot...you decide. Take one look at statistics, the increasing market of smart phones and the dynamics in play.
In addition, I don't think that Tim Cook just talked out of his butt during the last conference call spewing crap about 2014 being a year of great things...I don't know, maybe. Maybe he has no idea what product/service roll outs are coming so he just made sh!t up.
Desktops are declining but Apple's share will increase. I'm sure you can at least see it's a probability.
You just happen to think that every revenue stream will tank for Apple while I think that most will increase. Time will tell. I have a feeling that 24 months from now, I'll still be on this forum and you'll be long gone.
It's actually jam packed with innovation, struggling? Onslaught?