Apply playing with its channel inventory prior to launches ...
You're using the wrong word here and it gives away your bias. Apple doesn't play with its channel inventory, it manages it. If Apple allowed the stock of the 5 to be high just when the 5c was launched, they would be conducting their business poorly. Likewise, if they didn't ship enough 5c's to keep retailer's shelves as full as possible, they wouldn't be doing their job. Apple is doing its job like a responsible corporation should. Armchair and professional analysts like you and Munster are seeing manipulative spin where it doesn't exist.
Munster owes the community an apology, a mea culpa, but I don't see it coming. He grossly missed the big picture on the 9 million weekend units. We don't care about nit-picky details about channel management. We care about why and how he (and others) got it so very wrong. Why should we give him any credibility at all when he doesn't take ownership of his mistake and try to explain to us why it happened and why it won't happen again in the future? Distribution channel discussions are a distraction from the real story.
5C i selling like hell as well. Who thinks opposite, has no clue about Apple and its customers...
Who does have real clues about Apple and its customers? Many pretend to know, but no one does. To wit: this whole shipped v. sold argument. Repeated n times every month, and everyone is purely guessing (sooooo passionately too) every time of out of n.
D!ck head misk is at it again. I just wish he gets fired
"Shares of Apple (AAPL) are up $1.61 at $492.25, after Jefferies & Co.‘s Peter Misek issued a skeptical view of the company’s reported 9 million in first-weekend sales of the iPhone 5S and 5C. Based on reviews of the supply chain, Misek estimates the company sold 4 million of the 5S and 2.5 million of the 5C, with the rest being sold into the channel, meaning non-Apple stores. Misek opines “While 6.5 million sell-through is still solid, it is not a huge amount of upside.” He reiterates a Hold rating on Apple shares and a $425 price target."
If he really said that, then he's even more of an idiot than I thought.
Apple is currently at 490. If you have a target of 425, why would you have a 'hold' rating? Anyone thinking that it's really going to hit 425 should be selling.
Munster is right, like it or not. Read my post above
He may be right that "some" were sold to channel, but he has no way of coming up with the number. Conveniently, his estimate of channel stuffing is the difference between reality and his estimates. Go figure.
These guys are all morons. They have less credibility than my cat.
Why would it? Apple Stores are not considered channel, and they don't "sell" to themselves. Carrier stores are part of channel, as are non-Apple retail stores. These ARE counted in "sold" as there are contracts to buy them.
This is all dumb. Not only did Apple report sales, they also upped their guidance. Why would they up their guidance if they're going to report a crapload of 5C's in channel?
Also, the 9M "sold" number isn't necessarily including ANY from channel, as it was an informal announcement. It probably does include orders that haven't shipped yet, however.
Wow, I ordered mine online at 7:40 last night with in-store pickup, and picked it up at about 8:15. Looks like I got in right under the wire.
For what it's worth, I waited in line for 2 hours yesterday morning before opening only to be turned away because I was told they didn't have the one I wanted.
D!ck head misk is at it again. I just wish he gets fired
"Shares of Apple (AAPL) are up $1.61 at $492.25, after Jefferies & Co.‘s Peter Misek issued a skeptical view of the company’s reported 9 million in first-weekend sales of the iPhone 5S and 5C. Based on reviews of the supply chain, Misek estimates the company sold 4 million of the 5S and 2.5 million of the 5C, with the rest being sold into the channel, meaning non-Apple stores. Misek opines “While 6.5 million sell-through is still solid, it is not a huge amount of upside.” He reiterates a Hold rating on Apple shares and a $425 price target."
Even if the rest of his "methodology" is correct (which I doubt) isn't he asserting that it's reasonable to assume that not a single phone that was shipped to Best Buy, WalMart, AT&T, etc., etc. sold?
There is no f'ing way that Tim "Inventory Master" Cook would have Apple release a number of phones "sold" by including every phone passed on to a third-party reseller. A) I don't think he's the kind of guy to do that (because he doesn't really care what Wall Street thinks on a day to day basis, and he strikes me as a high-integrity guy); He'd be asking for trouble (and law suits) if he intentionally mischaracterized sales to boost the stock price. Apple says 9 million; I believe 9 million.
5C i selling like hell as well. Who thinks opposite, has no clue about Apple and its customers...
According to numerous reports it appears the 5S made up 78% of all iPhone sales last weekend.
In China where the 5C was supposed to do well, the 5S made up 91% of iPhone sales. The only placed the 5C sold at 20% or more of all sales were places where subsidized phones are the norm. In places such as China and other parts of Europe the 5C was a non-starter and the 5S dominated.
Not bad for Apple but overall but the 5C is still a dud in it's current state.
According to numerous reports it appears the 5S made up 78% of all iPhone sales last weekend.
In China where the 5C was supposed to do well, the 5S made up 91% of iPhone sales. The only placed the 5C sold at 20% or more of all sales were places where subsidized phones are the norm. In places such as China and other parts of Europe the 5C was a non-starter and the 5S dominated.
Not bad for Apple but overall but the 5C is still a dud in it's current state.
Yet the iPhone 5c would still have sold between 1 and 2 M using your figures. That's amazing performance for a 'last year's phone'. Please name any other phone that has done that.
He may be right that "some" were sold to channel, but he has no way of coming up with the number. Conveniently, his estimate of channel stuffing is the difference between reality and his estimates. Go figure.
These guys are all morons. They have less credibility than my cat.
I agree with you, "some" units in the channel are unsold, but the numbers he comes up with is another story.
Even if the rest of his "methodology" is correct (which I doubt) isn't he asserting that it's reasonable to assume that not a single phone that was shipped to Best Buy, WalMart, AT&T, etc., etc. sold?
There is no f'ing way that Tim "Inventory Master" Cook would have Apple release a number of phones "sold" by including every phone passed on to a third-party reseller. A) I don't think he's the kind of guy to do that (because he doesn't really care what Wall Street thinks on a day to day basis, and he strikes me as a high-integrity guy); He'd be asking for trouble (and law suits) if he intentionally mischaracterized sales to boost the stock price. Apple says 9 million; I believe 9 million.
Indeed.
And people still give more credit to some much-of-the-time-wrrong-analysts with little to lose, because integrity worth not much for those analysts, than they give to a CEO who have much to lose.
Apple is a very peculiar corporation, Apple has a zillion of competitors, and it is in bed with very few players, so it has allot to lose if it cook the books.
They sell 9 million phones and the analysis's say they did not have enough phones. If Apple had made, let say, 15 million phones and had plenty on hand to satisfy immediate demand and did not sell out over the weekend, they would claim that demand is weak...
It is my "OPINION" that Apple is doing much better than expected on all fronts... Most here (some of the biggest fans) were predicting 6-7 million. I think that they had BETTER supply than in years past. So maybe they did not have enough gold phones, but that one would be hard to predict by anyone...
Sooner or later common sense is going to take over and the stock market is going to realize that Apple is significantly undervalued...
I bought APPL at $400 and bough some more when it dipped to about $450...
Want win big on stocks? Listen to the Analysis and do the exact opposite of their recommendations. You will be right more than 50% of the time. The investors (Not gamblers) in Las Vegas get very rich on 51%....
Why would it? Apple Stores are not considered channel, and they don't "sell" to themselves. Carrier stores are part of channel, as are non-Apple retail stores. These ARE counted in "sold" as there are contracts to buy them.
As long as you are absolutely certain about that. " src="http://forums-files.appleinsider.com/images/smilies//lol.gif" />
[What I was told is that Apple Retail is no different than Walmart or any other vendor... and I really doubt that Pendergast can prove otherwise... so everybody is guessing]
[What I was told is that Apple Retail is no different than Walmart or any other vendor... and I really doubt that Pendergast can prove otherwise... so everybody is guessing]
"The Company recognizes revenue when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery has occurred, the sales price is fixed or determinable, and collection is probable. Product is considered delivered to the customer once it has been shipped and title and risk of loss have been transferred. For most of the Company’s product sales, these criteria are met at the time the product is shipped. For online sales to individuals, for some sales to education customers in the U.S., and for certain other sales, the Company defers revenue until the customer receives the product because the Company retains a portion of the risk of loss on these sales during transit."
Are you implying that Apple Retail is considered a customer of Apple, Inc?
"The Company recognizes revenue when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery has occurred, the sales price is fixed or determinable, and collection is probable. Product is considered delivered to the customer once it has been shipped and title and risk of loss have been transferred. For most of the Company’s product sales, these criteria are met at the time the product is shipped. For online sales to individuals, for some sales to education customers in the U.S., and for certain other sales, the Company defers revenue until the customer receives the product because the Company retains a portion of the risk of loss on these sales during transit."
Are you implying that Apple Retail is considered a customer of Apple, Inc?
I have to wonder how accurate the in-store inventory indicator is, especially for a high-demand product like the 5s. When I looked at the in-store pickup availability, I saw that several Apple stores in my area had the Space Gray models available, especially the Sprint and Verizon configurations.
But, considering the high demand for the 5s, I really wonder just how "real time" that inventory check really is. When you check the in-store pickup availability, the online store says either "Available today" or "Unavailable for pickup." Does that mean that the store will receive a shipment today sometime, or does it mean that they actually have units in-store right this moment? From what I've been reading, the 5s shipments are trickling into Apple stores with shoppers already waiting for new inventory to arrive.
In my experience, Apple's in-store pickup seems run at a leisurely pace and does not seem well suited to handling high-demand items.
I remember when I bought an iPad using in-store pickup, I placed the order and then I received an e-mail telling me that the order was received and being prepared for pickup. That first e-mail also said that I needed to wait for another confirmation message before heading to the store to actually pick up the iPad, and that the confirmation would usually take less than two hours. I received the confirmation about 90 minutes later. The process was orderly and the in-store service was great. But, I was surprised that Apple did not provide something comparable to the real-time inventory indicator and 30 minute pickup window that other electronics and office supply stores use for their online/in-store pickup services.
Comments
Apply playing with its channel inventory prior to launches ...
You're using the wrong word here and it gives away your bias. Apple doesn't play with its channel inventory, it manages it. If Apple allowed the stock of the 5 to be high just when the 5c was launched, they would be conducting their business poorly. Likewise, if they didn't ship enough 5c's to keep retailer's shelves as full as possible, they wouldn't be doing their job. Apple is doing its job like a responsible corporation should. Armchair and professional analysts like you and Munster are seeing manipulative spin where it doesn't exist.
Munster owes the community an apology, a mea culpa, but I don't see it coming. He grossly missed the big picture on the 9 million weekend units. We don't care about nit-picky details about channel management. We care about why and how he (and others) got it so very wrong. Why should we give him any credibility at all when he doesn't take ownership of his mistake and try to explain to us why it happened and why it won't happen again in the future? Distribution channel discussions are a distraction from the real story.
5C i selling like hell as well. Who thinks opposite, has no clue about Apple and its customers...
Who does have real clues about Apple and its customers? Many pretend to know, but no one does. To wit: this whole shipped v. sold argument. Repeated n times every month, and everyone is purely guessing (sooooo passionately too) every time of out of n.
If he really said that, then he's even more of an idiot than I thought.
Apple is currently at 490. If you have a target of 425, why would you have a 'hold' rating? Anyone thinking that it's really going to hit 425 should be selling.
Munster is right, like it or not. Read my post above
He may be right that "some" were sold to channel, but he has no way of coming up with the number. Conveniently, his estimate of channel stuffing is the difference between reality and his estimates. Go figure.
To the best of my knowledge, it would.
Why would it? Apple Stores are not considered channel, and they don't "sell" to themselves. Carrier stores are part of channel, as are non-Apple retail stores. These ARE counted in "sold" as there are contracts to buy them.
I'd want a gold one, but I'm not a proud large wig-wearing black woman.
If you saw one in person, I don't think you would say this. Gold iphone or a black woman.
If you saw one in person, I don't think you would say this. Gold iphone or a black woman.
I have yet to see one in person, but from pictures it looks quite classy.
I have yet to see one in person, but from pictures it looks quite classy.
Yep, the gold is really light and understated. In the Apple Store it was sort of hard to even see that it was gold. I liked it.
Wow, I ordered mine online at 7:40 last night with in-store pickup, and picked it up at about 8:15. Looks like I got in right under the wire.
For what it's worth, I waited in line for 2 hours yesterday morning before opening only to be turned away because I was told they didn't have the one I wanted.
D!ck head misk is at it again. I just wish he gets fired
"Shares of Apple (AAPL) are up $1.61 at $492.25, after Jefferies & Co.‘s Peter Misek issued a skeptical view of the company’s reported 9 million in first-weekend sales of the iPhone 5S and 5C. Based on reviews of the supply chain, Misek estimates the company sold 4 million of the 5S and 2.5 million of the 5C, with the rest being sold into the channel, meaning non-Apple stores. Misek opines “While 6.5 million sell-through is still solid, it is not a huge amount of upside.” He reiterates a Hold rating on Apple shares and a $425 price target."
Even if the rest of his "methodology" is correct (which I doubt) isn't he asserting that it's reasonable to assume that not a single phone that was shipped to Best Buy, WalMart, AT&T, etc., etc. sold?
There is no f'ing way that Tim "Inventory Master" Cook would have Apple release a number of phones "sold" by including every phone passed on to a third-party reseller. A) I don't think he's the kind of guy to do that (because he doesn't really care what Wall Street thinks on a day to day basis, and he strikes me as a high-integrity guy);
He'd be asking for trouble (and law suits) if he intentionally mischaracterized sales to boost the stock price. Apple says 9 million; I believe 9 million.
5C i selling like hell as well. Who thinks opposite, has no clue about Apple and its customers...
According to numerous reports it appears the 5S made up 78% of all iPhone sales last weekend.
Yet the iPhone 5c would still have sold between 1 and 2 M using your figures. That's amazing performance for a 'last year's phone'. Please name any other phone that has done that.
He may be right that "some" were sold to channel, but he has no way of coming up with the number. Conveniently, his estimate of channel stuffing is the difference between reality and his estimates. Go figure.
I agree with you, "some" units in the channel are unsold, but the numbers he comes up with is another story.
Even if the rest of his "methodology" is correct (which I doubt) isn't he asserting that it's reasonable to assume that not a single phone that was shipped to Best Buy, WalMart, AT&T, etc., etc. sold?
There is no f'ing way that Tim "Inventory Master" Cook would have Apple release a number of phones "sold" by including every phone passed on to a third-party reseller. A) I don't think he's the kind of guy to do that (because he doesn't really care what Wall Street thinks on a day to day basis, and he strikes me as a high-integrity guy);
He'd be asking for trouble (and law suits) if he intentionally mischaracterized sales to boost the stock price. Apple says 9 million; I believe 9 million.
Indeed.
And people still give more credit to some much-of-the-time-wrrong-analysts with little to lose, because integrity worth not much for those analysts, than they give to a CEO who have much to lose.
Apple is a very peculiar corporation, Apple has a zillion of competitors, and it is in bed with very few players, so it has allot to lose if it cook the books.
Apple just can't catch a break.....
They sell 9 million phones and the analysis's say they did not have enough phones. If Apple had made, let say, 15 million phones and had plenty on hand to satisfy immediate demand and did not sell out over the weekend, they would claim that demand is weak...
It is my "OPINION" that Apple is doing much better than expected on all fronts... Most here (some of the biggest fans) were predicting 6-7 million. I think that they had BETTER supply than in years past. So maybe they did not have enough gold phones, but that one would be hard to predict by anyone...
Sooner or later common sense is going to take over and the stock market is going to realize that Apple is significantly undervalued...
I bought APPL at $400 and bough some more when it dipped to about $450...
Want win big on stocks? Listen to the Analysis and do the exact opposite of their recommendations. You will be right more than 50% of the time. The investors (Not gamblers) in Las Vegas get very rich on 51%....
Why would it? Apple Stores are not considered channel, and they don't "sell" to themselves. Carrier stores are part of channel, as are non-Apple retail stores. These ARE counted in "sold" as there are contracts to buy them.
As long as you are absolutely certain about that.
" src="http://forums-files.appleinsider.com/images/smilies//lol.gif" />
[What I was told is that Apple Retail is no different than Walmart or any other vendor... and I really doubt that Pendergast can prove otherwise... so everybody is guessing]
[What I was told is that Apple Retail is no different than Walmart or any other vendor... and I really doubt that Pendergast can prove otherwise... so everybody is guessing]
"The Company recognizes revenue when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery has occurred, the sales price is fixed or determinable, and collection is probable. Product is considered delivered to the customer once it has been shipped and title and risk of loss have been transferred. For most of the Company’s product sales, these criteria are met at the time the product is shipped. For online sales to individuals, for some sales to education customers in the U.S., and for certain other sales, the Company defers revenue until the customer receives the product because the Company retains a portion of the risk of loss on these sales during transit."
Are you implying that Apple Retail is considered a customer of Apple, Inc?
"The Company recognizes revenue when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery has occurred, the sales price is fixed or determinable, and collection is probable. Product is considered delivered to the customer once it has been shipped and title and risk of loss have been transferred. For most of the Company’s product sales, these criteria are met at the time the product is shipped. For online sales to individuals, for some sales to education customers in the U.S., and for certain other sales, the Company defers revenue until the customer receives the product because the Company retains a portion of the risk of loss on these sales during transit."
Are you implying that Apple Retail is considered a customer of Apple, Inc?
That I am.
I have to wonder how accurate the in-store inventory indicator is, especially for a high-demand product like the 5s. When I looked at the in-store pickup availability, I saw that several Apple stores in my area had the Space Gray models available, especially the Sprint and Verizon configurations.
But, considering the high demand for the 5s, I really wonder just how "real time" that inventory check really is. When you check the in-store pickup availability, the online store says either "Available today" or "Unavailable for pickup." Does that mean that the store will receive a shipment today sometime, or does it mean that they actually have units in-store right this moment? From what I've been reading, the 5s shipments are trickling into Apple stores with shoppers already waiting for new inventory to arrive.
In my experience, Apple's in-store pickup seems run at a leisurely pace and does not seem well suited to handling high-demand items.
I remember when I bought an iPad using in-store pickup, I placed the order and then I received an e-mail telling me that the order was received and being prepared for pickup. That first e-mail also said that I needed to wait for another confirmation message before heading to the store to actually pick up the iPad, and that the confirmation would usually take less than two hours. I received the confirmation about 90 minutes later. The process was orderly and the in-store service was great. But, I was surprised that Apple did not provide something comparable to the real-time inventory indicator and 30 minute pickup window that other electronics and office supply stores use for their online/in-store pickup services.