Gene Munster's iPhone launch estimates off by 5M units for the second year in a row

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  • Reply 61 of 128
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by KiltedGreen View Post

     

     

    Not for Apple. :smokey:


     

    Funny! I love it! Made me laugh.

  • Reply 62 of 128
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

     

     

    Huh?!?   We got exactly what leaked at the event...  WTF are those jaw-dropping surprises?


     

    Speed from new A7 64 chip and M7. Improved Camera....

  • Reply 63 of 128
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,293member
    jragosta wrote: »
    First, it is an editorial.

    Second, even if it weren't, it's not character assassination. It is simply pointing out that some of the analysts are consistently wrong and no one should pay attention to them.

    You seem to be justifying the major flaw in the system. There is no feedback. An analyst can be wrong 100% of the time and they get the same press attention as one who is wrong only 10% of the time. Investors should be looking at how accurate a given analyst is before deciding whether to believe their commentary.

    This article is a first step at bringing out the facts that would allow investors to evaluate the reliability of a given analysts' opinions. Rather than arguing against this report, it would be more rational to ask for more reports like this. I'd like to see a centralized score card that lists all the major analysts and the accuracy of their predictions.
    I agree with you - and also have been saying that the $200-300 price targets for a 'cheap' iPhone were unrealistic. However, I disagree that $700 was unjustifiable. At the time, the P/E ratio was well below market averages and growth was well above market averages. Typically, when you have a company that is growing faster than the market, the P/E should be higher, rather than lower. The exception would be if you expect the company to fall off a cliff, but that clearly hasn't happened and there was no rational reason to think that it would.
    The rules are somewhat arcane, but they're also very specific.

    For example, you can not trade stock on the basis of insider information. However, if you get that information from a third party, it's usually OK.

    Similarly, you can not spread lies and directly benefit from share price swings by trading shares or options. That is, you can't buy an option betting on a share price decline and then send out false information to drive down the share price - and then cash in your options. However, you can benefit in other ways without difficulty. For example, as an analyst, you can have agreements with multiple customers. If Munster has an agreement with Samsung, he can receive money from Samsung at the same time he's driving down APPL. The two can't be linked - that is, his agreement with Samsung can't say that he gets $10 K for every point that AAPL drops, but it's not that hard to benefit in other ways. At the very least, Samsung is willing to spend money on people who badmouth Apple, so simply writing negative reports about Apple might get him a more lucrative Samsung contract - even without tying it to share price drops. That certainly happens (Microsoft is strongly suspected of having done the same thing), but it's not illegal.

    In the end, stock manipulation is very difficult to prove and there are only a handful of cases. Most of those are people who are stupid - officers trading on inside information before public release of financials and similar situations. It would be extremely difficult to prove that an analyst did anything illegal with their stories unless they were stupid enough to actively trade in a company just before and after releasing a report.

    Then at the very least, having a law on the books stating they must list all compensations they receive directly or indirectly linked to their prognostications would be a good start. That would certainly make for good reading on these articles. I don't ever watch TV these days, only Netflix and Apple TV but on the odd occasion I do those pharm ads have me doubled over. I recall a Monty Python skit based on that idea before anyone actually did it (or had to). I am sure folks become deaf to it but hearing one after a long time not, is like watching John Cleese all over again.

    And is always … if they hide pertinent information, that in of itself could be used against them more easily probably than the actual 'crime'. as Nixon and many others have found out.
  • Reply 64 of 128
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post



    What can Apple offer new in the iPhone 6? I don't know either, but I'm sure they'll find something. There are a few possibilities:



    - New design is pretty much a given. I don't know what it will look like, but they'll probably maintain their process of making every other phone look different.



    - Screen size. While I think the 5 and 6" phones out there are ridiculous (especially with the huge bezels that some have), I think the screen size could be increased slightly without hurting usability. Perhaps 4.3" or so.



    - Of course, continued improvements in CPU and GPU speed.



    - Universal cellular chip to reduce the number of components and SKUs.



    - 802.11ac



    Now, none of those are sufficiently impressive to wow anyone, so I expect that there will be at least one great new feature. I just can't guess what it will be.

     

    Interesting, thoughtful post. 

     

    I really can't think of anything, either. I agree with the 802.11ac., Making the iPhone a "universal" cell phone, new form factor, and improvements in speed. As far as screen size...maybe they should also offer a larger iPhone. If nothing else, just to shut everyone up! :)

     

    Apple seems to be working on improving all aspects of the iPhone to keep it years ahead of the competition. From alloys/antenna/chassis, glass/display, battery life, chips/speed, software, GPS/maps, camera, security, music, and Siri/voice/search.

     

    With the M7 there seems to be growth potential for fitness.

     

    I for one, was amazed at the improvements Apple made in the 5s from the 5. Speed, Security, Camera/flash. And keep the same beautifully thin and light form factor. Coupled with iOS7 it is a fantastic piece of equipment.

     

    Best

  • Reply 65 of 128
    This is not journalism; this is tabloid trash.

    It seems reasonable to me. I've been following Munster for years from MacNN. IN the beginning he was pro-Apple. IN the last few years he's been pro idiot excusing himself and blaming others. Sometimes you have to take out the trash. Munster should be fired... and, so should you!
  • Reply 66 of 128
    Its amazing that Gene Munster iS stiill making his notoriously wrong Apple predictions. This Anal-ist us nothing more than a stock manipulator and it's obvious that he has no 'connection' or 'supply check' knowledge of any sort. What's more amazing is that he's still employed by Piper Jaffray.
    Not only has Gene Munster been totally wrong for the last 2 years he has the worst record going back further than that.
    He appeared on CNBC the other day and continued to defend his horrific predictions and his stupidity.
    This is one Anal-ist I think that we'll soon see disappearing as his education , bulls--t and fabricating skills are of little use to anybody
    It also makes us wonder about Piper Jaffray. Why would they continue to allow this guy to do what he's doing. Perhaps the SEC needs to get involved
  • Reply 67 of 128
    Wow. This is the first time I've seen a picture of Gene Munster. He looks like Ed O'Neill, late of Modern Family, who played the clueless husband Al Bundy on Married with Children.

    Munster is channeling poor Al Bundy?
  • Reply 68 of 128
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Then at the very least, having a law on the books stating they must list all compensations they receive directly or indirectly linked to their prognostications would be a good start. That would certainly make for good reading on these articles. I don't ever watch TV these days, only Netflix and Apple TV but on the odd occasion I do those pharm ads have me doubled over. I recall a Monty Python skit based on that idea before anyone actually did it (or had to). I am sure folks become deaf to it but hearing one after a long time not, is like watching John Cleese all over again.

    And is always … if they hide pertinent information, that in of itself could be used against them more easily probably than the actual 'crime'. as Nixon and many others have found out.

    That would also be difficult to enforce. How do you define 'competitor'? For example, Apple sells phone and computer hardware with software and services being a minor part of their revenues. Google sells advertising with hardware being a tiny part of their sales. Does that make them competitors? Probably not - if you look at sales figures. But Android clearly competes with iOS. So how do you define 'directly or indirectly linked'?

    Personally, I believe that analysts should voluntarily list all of their contracts - and investors should simply refuse to pay any attention to the analysts who fail to do so. It all comes down to the investors. As long as investors believe idiots, the idiots will continue to babble.
    I really can't think of anything, either. I agree with the 802.11ac., Making the iPhone a "universal" cell phone, new form factor, and improvements in speed. As far as screen size...maybe they should also offer a larger iPhone. If nothing else, just to shut everyone up! :)

    Maybe they'll offer a pear-shaped phone. (If you have a teenage daughter, you'll know what I mean).
  • Reply 69 of 128
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,312member

    Poor old Gene Munster. Hated by Apple haters. Hated by Apple lovers.

     

    I like him. He's mostly good on peer quarter estimates, although clearly not so good with first week totals or new products.

  • Reply 70 of 128

    The cheap China phone is a figment of ignorant passportless pundits.

  • Reply 71 of 128
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post



    Maybe they'll offer a pear-shaped phone. (If you have a teenage daughter, you'll know what I mean).

    I had a "teenage daughter." 

     

    She's now 29 and I know exactly what you mean! I can't believe I created another woman to boss me around. :)

     

    Best thing I ever did, though, and it was easier than making a peanut butter and jelly sandwich! :)

     

    Best

  • Reply 72 of 128
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    mjtomlin wrote: »
    That's a really good point and he should be called out on it. If all these analysts talk up "shipment" numbers for every other company why wouldn't his 5-6 million figure count shipments and not just sales? Sounds like a double standard - Apple is only allowed to count actually sales, while every other OEM can count shipments.
    But it's not even about other companies. Apple's sales figures include products sold to resellers. Gene Munster knows this.
  • Reply 73 of 128
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    I had a "teenage daughter." 

    She's now 29 and I know exactly what you mean! I can't believe I created another woman to boss me around. :)

    Best thing I ever did, though, and it was easier than making a peanut butter and jelly sandwich! :)

    Best

    Yeah, but a peanut butter and jelly sandwich doesn't cost you tens of thousands of dollars year after year.
  • Reply 74 of 128
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    Yeah, but a peanut butter and jelly sandwich doesn't cost you tens of thousands of dollars year after year.

     

    I know! :)

  • Reply 75 of 128
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member

    well, i'd like to turn our attention to Joe Wilcox. that guy is a true piece of work, a true "hack." a lifelong MS sycophant, he's written dozens of contrived posts bashing Apple. but this one might be the most ludicrous ever - and that's saying something. and he's beyond claim chowder - he just ignores everything he's written that turns out utterly wrong. there is so much of it, why bother?

     

    what's really great is knowing how the huge success of the 5s combined with the huge flop of the Surface and stagnation of Windows Phone must be totally eating him up inside, tearing at his guts ...

     

    i feel his pain - and it feels great!

  • Reply 76 of 128
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,312member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    But it's not even about other companies. Apple's sales figures include products sold to resellers. Gene Munster knows this.

    Isn't that what he is saying?

  • Reply 77 of 128
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ulfhednar View Post



    I don't fault Gene Munster for not being able to come up with the correct numbers. It's a tough business predicting the future. The disturbing thing to me is that, even when given the correct numbers, he still gets it wrong. I don't think the man is incompetent. So it really begs the question: What's going on here? Why would he publicly shout: Hey, everybody, look at me, I'm an idiot? What does he have to gain? Some are suggesting it's ego, or an inability on his part to admit when he's wrong, but I doubt that.



    Which brings us back to the big question: Why would he do this? What does he get from this?



    Any suggestions?

     

    It's ego.  This is classic for someone that thinks they aren't wrong when presented with opposing evidence to blame others for their error.  I've seen this in many people that I live and work with.

  • Reply 78 of 128
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sambira View Post

     

     

    It's ego.  This is classic for someone that thinks they aren't wrong when presented with opposing evidence to blame others for their error.  I've seen this in many people that I live and work with.


     

    yup. his everyday life is probably full of people who blow smoke up his butt and tell him how brilliant he is ... (they need their jobs).

  • Reply 79 of 128
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

    Gene Munster still employed for the second year in a row


     

    That’s the more important headline.

     

    What happens if I screw up on the job for two years in a row? I get fired, like any sane person would be. If I screw up for two months in a row, I get fired, and many places it would be weeks.

     

    Originally Posted by patrickwalker View Post

    To me, the problem with Apple is what are they going to add to the iPhone 6 next year now that iOS7 has been revamped and these new features added?



    Only thing I can think of is wireless charging.

     

    Nope. But that new battery tech that charges in minutes? That’s more Apple’s speed. Granted, I’d say it’s a few years (read: roughly iPhone 6S (9th iPhone)) before it could happen, but…

  • Reply 80 of 128
    runbuh wrote: »
    True.

    These analysts are doing what they always do: making educated guesses.  Anyone who treats their advice as fact should not be allowed to make their own investment decisions.

    I would really like to know who is issuing better or more accurate information?  No one?  Anyone?  Bueller?

    Can DED do better?

    That's not the point. If you're wrong, admit you're wrong. Don't go blaming others. There isn't any accountability for these morons.
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