With regards to the Mac going away; It's the desktop Mac that is losing sales, not the laptop. Apple's laptops, especially the MBA, are doing fine. The build quality is so much better then the other brands that most of the Apple laptops eventually end up running Windows. In fact, if you check out Apple's site, it is possible to have the laptop ship to you with Windows installed, in place of OSX.
Rather then call it a post-PC world, it's more of a post-desktop world. I love it!!
I have an iMac and had a rMBP 15". Just sold the macbook because we never use it. Still use the iMac quite a bit. I actually think the laptop will be gone before the desktop. Although we're still talking severall years.
With regards to the Mac going away; It's the desktop Mac that is losing sales, not the laptop. Apple's laptops, especially the MBA, are doing fine. The build quality is so much better then the other brands that most of the Apple laptops eventually end up running Windows. In fact, if you check out Apple's site, it is possible to have the laptop ship to you with Windows installed, in place of OSX.
Please post a link from Apple's site offering to install Windows. I looked and it wasn't there, including pretending to buy one.
Also, where is your evidence that most Apple laptops end up running Windows. I'm calling pure BS on that. It is true, however, that the best machine to run Windows (at least pre 8) is the Macbook Pro. That has been proven by a PC publication.
iOS is a subset of OS X so a convergence is very possible, whether likely or not. There is currently cooperation as I experience using the iPad as a controller for Logic Pro X where I can do things on the iPad that are impossible without it; eg, I can strum a guitar chord convincingly on the iPad with sounds from Logic that sound very convincing, and I can control Logic remotely from a proper music station. Such cooperation and mutual reliance can only move forward. Whether convergence will happen only time will tell.
Seriously...what I had in mind for this implementation of "multi-touch" technology was not a stand-up iMac or vertical display.
It is a large-screen "table top" computer...large 24" 27" or 30" display, multitouch running Mac OS X or a variant of iOS for desktop use and desktop application use.
Such a technology has already been demonstrated by Microsoft.
This is a large, multi-touch surface that is a computer....like a giant iPad, that sits flat on the table or at a slight angle tilt. The reason that multi-touch for desktop has been debunked is because the vertical situation of a computer monitor is not a comfortable computing experience for an extended period of time. Something more like this "tabletop computer" is much more natural, like using an iPad on a table or with a smart cover stand to elevate it slightly....but a MUCH MUCH larger surface...something you could edit FinalCut movies on or run Adobe Photoshop on....
I have yet to see Apple go in this direction. The iPads are so tiny, I cannot believe Apple has not made a larger surface touch computer at this point. But, the way I see it...tabletop computers are where the future of multitouch computing is.
Forward head posture would go from bad to worse. We already sit too much looking down as it is.
Please post a link from Apple's site offering to install Windows. I looked and it wasn't there, including pretending to buy one.
Also, where is your evidence that most Apple laptops end up running Windows. I'm calling pure BS on that. It is true, however, that the best machine to run Windows (at least pre 8) is the Macbook Pro. That has been proven by a PC publication.
Well, dip me in dog shit, I can't find that option now, either. It may only be available to certain large volume buyers. I remember if from Windows 7 days.
Just great! I really appreciate these "Weekend" articles!
It's a good thing I don't work for Apple, b/c I think the MBA is perfect. I don't see how they can improve it. But, I'm sure they will.
The iMac is the most beautiful desktop ever. Again, maybe they can make an edge to edge screen and once and for all get rid of the "chin!" But, even if they don't, I wouldn't mind.
iOS7 and OSX iLife/iWork are wonderful.
As much as I would love to just only have an 5s and an iPad Mini as my only tech. I think I will have to buy the 27" iMac and an 11" MBA.
Soon though, very soon, I think I will need the iMac and the MBA less and less!
Desktop sales had been dropping in comparison to the notebook for years before the iPad came along. The modern tablet is hurting both desktop and notebook sales. There are just too many people that don't need either, or at least not enough that they will update their "PC" as often as they would before now that they can buy an iPad.
I agree with you. I'm still running an orig. white intel 20" iMac with SL. And an iP4s.
My purchasing plans are: 5s, iPad Mini and when the iMac dies, probably an MBA 11" and then, maybe a 27" iMac. But, doubtful on the iMac.
I have an iMac and had a rMBP 15". Just sold the macbook because we never use it. Still use the iMac quite a bit. I actually think the laptop will be gone before the desktop. Although we're still talking severall years.
Interesting. It's still hard for me not to see the iMac as the digital hub. And when my 7 year old iMac gives up the ghost, it would indeed be hard to see replacing said digital hub with an MBA.
I like what Apple is trying to do with iCloud and I would love to have only SSD devices, 5s, iPad Mini, and maybe an MBA...but its my damn cable company's high cost and slow speed that makes me worry about accessing everything online. I don't have a lot of faith in them.
Why are the article's apostrophes coming up as question marks?
Go to Safari > Preferences > Appearance > Default Encoding's drop down menu and choose Western (Mac OS Roman) if your running Western (ISO Latin 1). Worked for me.
You may have to close Safari and reopen for changes to take effect.
Forward head posture would go from bad to worse. We already sit too much looking down as it is.
Agreed! I'm very close to getting a stand up desk with a treadmill for my iMac and a recumbent bike for when I'm watching F1, Tiger or tennis and movies.
Why are the article's apostrophes coming up as question marks?
Because Kasper's Automated Slave is written by idiots who know nothing about properly translating CP-1252 Extended ANSI characters to UTF-8. One way to avoid this mess when writing articles is to STOP USING MICROSOFT WORD.
The market shifts and it's been a little hard to predict. Here's my take FWIW.
1. Laptops are obviously where the desktop computing has been shifting since the power inside a portable device is getting to the point where it does enough and people want that portability.
2. Desktops will still be here. Apple makes a decent amount of money and they are just updating their products normally as new processors come out and other advancements for those devices. But due to the newness and the portability people find that a tablet is enough, or a smartphone is enough.
3. I still think that as Apple opens up more stores in China and other countries, it will open up more desktop and laptop sales in the long term. Just because there's a retraction of unit sales for a year doesn't predict a long term sales growth. Things come and go in different cycles.
4. Obviously, the PC desktop and laptop haven't seen anything more than the incremental advances. On the top end Thunderbolt, but that's geared more towards the high end market until compelling devices come out for the masses. Otherwise it just incremental advances in CPU/GPU processors, faster RAM, faster SSD, faster WiFi and maybe some new screen technology in the next year or two.
5. Apple is now on a yearly OS update path now and I don't know what major changes in the desktop they could make to make the desktop/laptop compelling enough for people to buy them in the manner in which they already are. Most of the development is going in the tablet development for software especially.
6. I think there will be more growth coming from countries that are coming up to speed in the desktop/laptop markets and China seems to be an area set for growth for Apple. As they open up more stores, they increase their business for all products from what I can tell.
Because Kasper's Automated Slave is written by idiots who know nothing about properly translating CP-1252 Extended ANSI characters to UTF-8. One way to avoid this mess when writing articles is to STOP USING MICROSOFT WORD.
A bit harsh! Probably right on the crappy Word use!
To me the future is convergence done well. A desktop OS requires a different GUI metaphor than a mobile one. Apple is doing this right (exceptions like the dreadful scrollbar inversion and stupid Launchpad left aside).
What I see is that the iPhone 7 or so will be able to transform into a desktop OS by hooking it up to your monitor. You essentially get an evolved version of OSX. When you disconnect, it just uses the iOS portion.
Content and settings are shared through the local and remote filesystem. Let's hope iCloud makes sense by then.
Well said...I like the idea of one "brain." Imagine iPhone being the brain and you have a monitor at work and at home. The iPad just becomes another monitor and you don't have to have a large SSD on your iPhone b/c all your stuff is in the cloud.
I think it would be nice to see a convergence of some kind between iOS and OS X but there isn't a logical progression towards it. The Mac still misses out on important software and support due to the small marketshare and iOS or mobile in general doesn't get many fully fledged apps due to sandboxing (no scripting outside Javascript, shared file access), the UI, the mobile limitations etc. There is a divide between the two and to bridge the gap would require compromises to both designs.
You can't put the windowed OS X UI into a tablet because it doesn't work on such a small screen or with touch. You can't easily cut off a shared filesystem, scripting capability and implement the same kind of sandboxing in OS X as iOS because it would kill a productive environment.
Dealing with x86 and ARM is another hurdle. If they moved everything to x86, they are stuck with Intel's pricing, rollout schedule and the tech being available to competitors. Even at the lowest-end, Intel charges far more for their chips than companies can source ARM chips and would make them completely non-competitive with anyone using ARM. If it was possible, there would be no such thing as Windows RT because they'd simply use cheaper Intel x86 chips. If Apple moved everything to ARM, we take a few steps back to the PPC era where we deal with software incompatibility, the inability to run Windows natively again, having to get new versions of all productive software, command-line tools and drivers, as well as losing some of the IO standards mentioned in the article.
Tim said quite explicitly that they don't see a convergence between iOS and OS X happening. Obviously iOS is a form of OS X anyway so the other possibility is for iOS to make OS X redundant. The way it would do this is by becoming capable of the same productive tasks that OS X currently is. This would either require scripting technologies and certain languages to die out or for there to be a less constrained version of iOS - one that by default ships as a consumer OS but has a configuration mode to allow you to set it up as a productive OS.
The benefits would of course be far cheaper Macs and laptops that run longer on battery and can even be passively cooled. It comes with a lot of risks though because if it fails to support productive workflows fully, those tasks just stop being possible on the Mac platform. I think developers and users care too much about the user experience Apple's OS offers to let that happen though and would jump through a lot of hoops to make any productive workflow feasible somehow, even if it meant relying heavily on server-side services.
It's also a consideration whether or not Apple needs to or wants to do this. People who rely on productive workflows aren't huge in number. The PC audience is huge but how many of them have PCs for the wrong reasons? They may need a big screen but the software doesn't have to be Windows nor the hardware x86. Would having a productive OS bring them over any more than plain old iOS?
Perhaps Apple just needs a low-end ARM laptop and desktop that runs iOS at lower price points to bring those people over from Windows. But then they'd have to map an older interaction scheme onto iOS. It works as the iOS simulator shows but a 3D gesture space would help. For the foreseeable future, I think iOS and OS X will have to co-exist as is. This works out very well from a security point of view because it limits the range of possible attacks on a large number of people.
I'd like to see a productive touch OS though. I don't like the keyboard and mouse at all and I'd like to see some replacement that still works horizontally with a surface but is not a fixed state. I don't like how commands are all mapped to binary presses of letters of the alphabet, productive software should be more contextual like the iPad is. I would like to be able to run a stick over the desk to draw on the screen like a Wacom but with no extra hardware and at the same time, have precise control over the rest of the functions just using my hands. This could be done by just lying the screen flat but that's not enough. Ideally the display won't dictate how people interact with the software but the Google Glasses route doesn't work either.
The iPad is a consumption device from the beginning. The entire embedded space is a consumption solution with mobile needs.
To think it's replacing the desktop/laptop instead of providing a natural extension is ludicrous.
I take your point, but, I think most people are just using the iPad for email, facebookie, photos, video and surfing. Pretty much what they were doing when they had a PC "truck" under their desk.
I don't know about everyone else, but I'm using my iMac less and less and my iPhone and iPad more (Just sold my iPad 2 to get a Mini). I'm using my printer less and less. I mean a lot less!
Granted you're not going to create the movie "Gravity" on iPad, but for the vast majority of people the iPad is the future not the PC under the desk or even a laptop for that matter.
Comments
In fact, if you check out Apple's site, it is possible to have the laptop ship to you with Windows installed, in place of OSX.
Maybe you can provide a link for this configuration from apple.com. Given Apple's brand protection tendencies, I cannot believe this is true.
I have an iMac and had a rMBP 15". Just sold the macbook because we never use it. Still use the iMac quite a bit. I actually think the laptop will be gone before the desktop. Although we're still talking severall years.
With regards to the Mac going away; It's the desktop Mac that is losing sales, not the laptop. Apple's laptops, especially the MBA, are doing fine. The build quality is so much better then the other brands that most of the Apple laptops eventually end up running Windows. In fact, if you check out Apple's site, it is possible to have the laptop ship to you with Windows installed, in place of OSX.
Please post a link from Apple's site offering to install Windows. I looked and it wasn't there, including pretending to buy one.
Also, where is your evidence that most Apple laptops end up running Windows. I'm calling pure BS on that. It is true, however, that the best machine to run Windows (at least pre 8) is the Macbook Pro. That has been proven by a PC publication.
Interesting and well thought out article.
iOS is a subset of OS X so a convergence is very possible, whether likely or not. There is currently cooperation as I experience using the iPad as a controller for Logic Pro X where I can do things on the iPad that are impossible without it; eg, I can strum a guitar chord convincingly on the iPad with sounds from Logic that sound very convincing, and I can control Logic remotely from a proper music station. Such cooperation and mutual reliance can only move forward. Whether convergence will happen only time will tell.
This site is best viewed with an IE6 browser...
Forward head posture would go from bad to worse. We already sit too much looking down as it is.
Well, dip me in dog shit, I can't find that option now, either. It may only be available to certain large volume buyers. I remember if from Windows 7 days.
Just great! I really appreciate these "Weekend" articles!
It's a good thing I don't work for Apple, b/c I think the MBA is perfect. I don't see how they can improve it. But, I'm sure they will.
The iMac is the most beautiful desktop ever. Again, maybe they can make an edge to edge screen and once and for all get rid of the "chin!" But, even if they don't, I wouldn't mind.
iOS7 and OSX iLife/iWork are wonderful.
As much as I would love to just only have an 5s and an iPad Mini as my only tech. I think I will have to buy the 27" iMac and an 11" MBA.
Soon though, very soon, I think I will need the iMac and the MBA less and less!
Desktop sales had been dropping in comparison to the notebook for years before the iPad came along. The modern tablet is hurting both desktop and notebook sales. There are just too many people that don't need either, or at least not enough that they will update their "PC" as often as they would before now that they can buy an iPad.
I agree with you. I'm still running an orig. white intel 20" iMac with SL. And an iP4s.
My purchasing plans are: 5s, iPad Mini and when the iMac dies, probably an MBA 11" and then, maybe a 27" iMac. But, doubtful on the iMac.
I have an iMac and had a rMBP 15". Just sold the macbook because we never use it. Still use the iMac quite a bit. I actually think the laptop will be gone before the desktop. Although we're still talking severall years.
Interesting. It's still hard for me not to see the iMac as the digital hub. And when my 7 year old iMac gives up the ghost, it would indeed be hard to see replacing said digital hub with an MBA.
I like what Apple is trying to do with iCloud and I would love to have only SSD devices, 5s, iPad Mini, and maybe an MBA...but its my damn cable company's high cost and slow speed that makes me worry about accessing everything online. I don't have a lot of faith in them.
Why are the article's apostrophes coming up as question marks?
Go to Safari > Preferences > Appearance > Default Encoding's drop down menu and choose Western (Mac OS Roman) if your running Western (ISO Latin 1). Worked for me.
You may have to close Safari and reopen for changes to take effect.
Best
Forward head posture would go from bad to worse. We already sit too much looking down as it is.
Agreed! I'm very close to getting a stand up desk with a treadmill for my iMac and a recumbent bike for when I'm watching F1, Tiger or tennis and movies.
Why are the article's apostrophes coming up as question marks?
Because Kasper's Automated Slave is written by idiots who know nothing about properly translating CP-1252 Extended ANSI characters to UTF-8. One way to avoid this mess when writing articles is to STOP USING MICROSOFT WORD.
Augmented reality technology will most likely be the 'convergence' of desktop/mobile.
AR is just now budding out of it's infancy - but I imagine we are still 5 years or more away from having it replace conventional 'displays'.
I think that Jony Ive alluded to this at the end of the iOS7 video. AR will manifest using Parallax and iBeacons in the mobile sphere.
1. Laptops are obviously where the desktop computing has been shifting since the power inside a portable device is getting to the point where it does enough and people want that portability.
2. Desktops will still be here. Apple makes a decent amount of money and they are just updating their products normally as new processors come out and other advancements for those devices. But due to the newness and the portability people find that a tablet is enough, or a smartphone is enough.
3. I still think that as Apple opens up more stores in China and other countries, it will open up more desktop and laptop sales in the long term. Just because there's a retraction of unit sales for a year doesn't predict a long term sales growth. Things come and go in different cycles.
4. Obviously, the PC desktop and laptop haven't seen anything more than the incremental advances. On the top end Thunderbolt, but that's geared more towards the high end market until compelling devices come out for the masses. Otherwise it just incremental advances in CPU/GPU processors, faster RAM, faster SSD, faster WiFi and maybe some new screen technology in the next year or two.
5. Apple is now on a yearly OS update path now and I don't know what major changes in the desktop they could make to make the desktop/laptop compelling enough for people to buy them in the manner in which they already are. Most of the development is going in the tablet development for software especially.
6. I think there will be more growth coming from countries that are coming up to speed in the desktop/laptop markets and China seems to be an area set for growth for Apple. As they open up more stores, they increase their business for all products from what I can tell.
Because Kasper's Automated Slave is written by idiots who know nothing about properly translating CP-1252 Extended ANSI characters to UTF-8. One way to avoid this mess when writing articles is to STOP USING MICROSOFT WORD.
A bit harsh! Probably right on the crappy Word use!
To me the future is convergence done well. A desktop OS requires a different GUI metaphor than a mobile one. Apple is doing this right (exceptions like the dreadful scrollbar inversion and stupid Launchpad left aside).
What I see is that the iPhone 7 or so will be able to transform into a desktop OS by hooking it up to your monitor. You essentially get an evolved version of OSX. When you disconnect, it just uses the iOS portion.
Content and settings are shared through the local and remote filesystem. Let's hope iCloud makes sense by then.
Well said...I like the idea of one "brain." Imagine iPhone being the brain and you have a monitor at work and at home. The iPad just becomes another monitor and you don't have to have a large SSD on your iPhone b/c all your stuff is in the cloud.
You can't put the windowed OS X UI into a tablet because it doesn't work on such a small screen or with touch. You can't easily cut off a shared filesystem, scripting capability and implement the same kind of sandboxing in OS X as iOS because it would kill a productive environment.
Dealing with x86 and ARM is another hurdle. If they moved everything to x86, they are stuck with Intel's pricing, rollout schedule and the tech being available to competitors. Even at the lowest-end, Intel charges far more for their chips than companies can source ARM chips and would make them completely non-competitive with anyone using ARM. If it was possible, there would be no such thing as Windows RT because they'd simply use cheaper Intel x86 chips. If Apple moved everything to ARM, we take a few steps back to the PPC era where we deal with software incompatibility, the inability to run Windows natively again, having to get new versions of all productive software, command-line tools and drivers, as well as losing some of the IO standards mentioned in the article.
Tim said quite explicitly that they don't see a convergence between iOS and OS X happening. Obviously iOS is a form of OS X anyway so the other possibility is for iOS to make OS X redundant. The way it would do this is by becoming capable of the same productive tasks that OS X currently is. This would either require scripting technologies and certain languages to die out or for there to be a less constrained version of iOS - one that by default ships as a consumer OS but has a configuration mode to allow you to set it up as a productive OS.
The benefits would of course be far cheaper Macs and laptops that run longer on battery and can even be passively cooled. It comes with a lot of risks though because if it fails to support productive workflows fully, those tasks just stop being possible on the Mac platform. I think developers and users care too much about the user experience Apple's OS offers to let that happen though and would jump through a lot of hoops to make any productive workflow feasible somehow, even if it meant relying heavily on server-side services.
It's also a consideration whether or not Apple needs to or wants to do this. People who rely on productive workflows aren't huge in number. The PC audience is huge but how many of them have PCs for the wrong reasons? They may need a big screen but the software doesn't have to be Windows nor the hardware x86. Would having a productive OS bring them over any more than plain old iOS?
Perhaps Apple just needs a low-end ARM laptop and desktop that runs iOS at lower price points to bring those people over from Windows. But then they'd have to map an older interaction scheme onto iOS. It works as the iOS simulator shows but a 3D gesture space would help. For the foreseeable future, I think iOS and OS X will have to co-exist as is. This works out very well from a security point of view because it limits the range of possible attacks on a large number of people.
I'd like to see a productive touch OS though. I don't like the keyboard and mouse at all and I'd like to see some replacement that still works horizontally with a surface but is not a fixed state. I don't like how commands are all mapped to binary presses of letters of the alphabet, productive software should be more contextual like the iPad is. I would like to be able to run a stick over the desk to draw on the screen like a Wacom but with no extra hardware and at the same time, have precise control over the rest of the functions just using my hands. This could be done by just lying the screen flat but that's not enough. Ideally the display won't dictate how people interact with the software but the Google Glasses route doesn't work either.
The iPad is a consumption device from the beginning. The entire embedded space is a consumption solution with mobile needs.
To think it's replacing the desktop/laptop instead of providing a natural extension is ludicrous.
I take your point, but, I think most people are just using the iPad for email, facebookie, photos, video and surfing. Pretty much what they were doing when they had a PC "truck" under their desk.
I don't know about everyone else, but I'm using my iMac less and less and my iPhone and iPad more (Just sold my iPad 2 to get a Mini). I'm using my printer less and less. I mean a lot less!
Granted you're not going to create the movie "Gravity" on iPad, but for the vast majority of people the iPad is the future not the PC under the desk or even a laptop for that matter.
Everything I do is more fun on the iPad.