Apple predicted to sell as many as 10M 'iWatches' in first year

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited January 2014
A new poll suggests that as many as 4 percent of iPhone owners would be early adopters of a so-called Apple "iWatch," positioning the company to sell up to 10 million in its first year of availability.

Wearable Device
AppleInsider was first to discover an Apple patent filing describing a watch design with flexible display.


Investment firm Piper Jaffray surveyed 799 U.S. consumers about Apple?s rumored wrist-worn device and concluded that an ?iWatch" could have a penetration rate of between 2 and 4 percent among iPhone owners. With an estimated user base of 293 million iPhone owners, that would translate to between 5 million and 10 million sales in the first year, analyst Gene Munster said.

"While we do not view the watch as a likely needle-mover for Apple in terms of revenue in 2014, we put it in a similar category as the television in that it could demonstrate Apple?s ability to innovate (good for the multiple) and potentially lead to a more meaningful new product category in wearable tech," Munster wrote.

Munster?s survey asked respondents whether they would buy an iPhone-connected ?iWatch" at a price of $350. Among those polled, 12 percent said they would be interested in an Apple wrist watch at that price, while 88 percent said they would not.

But Munster noted that U.S. consumers are wealthier than the average international iPhone owner. And many consumers who are interested in a product may not actually buy it, leading him to conservatively push his estimated adoption rate downward.

iWatch
Artist's rendition of purported Apple smartwatch. | Source: Yrving Torrealba


If Apple were to sell 7.5 million ?iWatches? in the first year ? the midpoint of Munster?s prediction ? at a price of $350 with 30 percent gross margin, it would lead to an additional $2.6 billion in revenue and $790 million in profit in 2014. Those numbers would add 1 percent to Piper Jaffray?s forecasts for the year.

Munster?s prediction is much lower than analyst Wang Wanil of CIMB Securities Limited, who forecast in August that Apple would ship nearly 65 million ?iWatch" units priced at $199 in the device?s first year. That would be well above the 14.8 million iPads Apple sold in that product?s first month, though the iPad carried an entry price of $499.

Rumors have suggested Apple could be eyeing the launch of a new wearable device next year, featuring a 1.5- or 2-inch touchscreen panel. It?s been claimed the new product will focus on biometrics, offering users feedback on health and activity by acting as a pedometer, heart rate monitor, and possibly more.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 63
    Never going to happen. It's all a smoke screen!
  • Reply 2 of 63
    ceek74ceek74 Posts: 324member

    Headline on 17-Jun-2014 - "Apple sells 10M iWatches, analysts predicted 5M.  Apple fails again."

  • Reply 3 of 63

    iWatch with interest ;)

     

     

    Sorry

  • Reply 4 of 63
    Oh it's going to happen but these predictions are meaningless.
    In order to accurately gauge interst you would need to know.
    1 what it actually looks like
    2 what it actually does
    3 what it actually costs
  • Reply 5 of 63
    allenbfallenbf Posts: 993member
    I can see why his predictions stink. He pulls ideas out of his arse.

    If/when Apple releases an iWatch, I'm sure it'll sell well. But how do you predict sales for a rumored product, one with ZERO product leaks at this time??
  • Reply 6 of 63
    macapfelmacapfel Posts: 575member
    I think Apple will at least sell 12M iWatches. Mark my word!
  • Reply 7 of 63
    irelandireland Posts: 17,794member

    Apple predicted to sell as many as 30M iDildos.

  • Reply 8 of 63
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post



    Oh it's going to happen but these predictions are meaningless.

    In order to accurately gauge interst you would need to know.

    1 what it actually looks like

    2 what it actually does

    3 what it actually costs

     

    Could not agree more.

     

    If it has the same connotation as wearing a calculator on you belt mid to late 1970's that number is going to be low. If it provides lots of biometrics that can be gathered via an M7 altar low power device and then provides good reports by analyzing that data ~realtime then the adoption rate goes up but if the price is close to $400 then I think it will be very slow to adopt. $250-$275 is probably a reasonable experimenters price -- but still AppleTV like adoptions at first.

     

    The other thing (and I am sure with Apple this wouldn't happen) is they can't make it look like a smartphone duct taped to your wrist - that Scamsung thing is HUGE.

  • Reply 9 of 63
    no wait, it was 65 Million only a month ago: http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/08/28/apple-projected-to-ship-nearly-65m-iwatch-units-priced-at-199-in-first-year

    dude, that's a hell of a negative trend: Apple is doomed by the time it finally will release iWatch.

    *woof*
  • Reply 10 of 63
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

     

    Apple predicted to sell as many as 30M iDildos.


     

    Yeah but they would never be able to get a patent because of prior art (Steely Dan in "Naked Lunch" by William S. Burroughs).

  • Reply 11 of 63

    Apple should thank Samsung for the Gear and showing everyone how NOT to do a smartwatch.

  • Reply 12 of 63
    alanhalanh Posts: 75member
    Quote: "Wang Wanil of CIMB Securities Limited, who forecast in August that Apple would ship nearly 65 million iWatch units priced at $199 in the device's first year. That would be well above the 14.8 million iPads Apple sold in that product's first month, though the iPad carried an entry price of $499."

    14.8 million iPads in the 1st month? I don't think so. !st year probably.
  • Reply 13 of 63
    jax44jax44 Posts: 79member
    Calculating iWatch sales, analyst style:

    2 hands on watch. 12 numbers:
    2x12= 24

    24 hours in day:
    24x24=576

    60 minutes in an hour:
    60x576=34,560

    60 seconds in a minute:
    60x34,560=2,073,600

    30 days in a month:
    30x2,073,600=62,208,000

    62 million!
  • Reply 14 of 63
    akqiesakqies Posts: 768member
    Oh it's going to happen but these predictions are meaningless.
    In order to accurately gauge interst you would need to know.
    1 what it actually looks like
    2 what it actually does
    3 what it actually costs

    Even if an analyst came out with "Assuming its features include yada, yada, yada and starting price comes n under blah blah we believe Apple could sell x-many" I could get behind such a statement.
  • Reply 15 of 63

    and my thought... much like every computer, and phone Apple makes (it almost has to with NTP and GPS requirements... it's got to have an accurate (more than you or I want it to be) timepiece on the inside), the next personal thing Apple makes will display the time.   

     

    But I doubt it's a watch.   It may be worn on the wrist, but it's not a watch.

    Note:  10 million thingees now... in Apple's portfolio, is almost non-news.  Especially at  $199 or less price point.

     

    so, to maintain a $199 price point, and have a target market equal to that of the world wide consumers of smart phones, or computers, or iPods...  what problem does it need to solve to make it worth while to someone who has $200 free cash in their pocket.  In otherwords, can it 'do a job' that is worth more than $200 to the consumer.

     

    I first think of health.  and not a super pedometer like a FuelBand.  No, this has to do more for the people who walk because they have to, not because they have time to put on lululemon clothing and $125 Nike Shoes.    Heart rate, bloodpressure, bloodsugar, AS A MINIMUM monitor.  Metabolism monitoring (kCal expenditure) would be nice too, but a 2nd tier, as is medication reminders, and crisis detection (I'VE FALLEN AND I CAN'T GET UP!").   Wifi/BT/tethered to another iDevice or local WiFi.  Telemetry uploaded to an iHealth account.

     

    The only other thing is 'finance.'  (TouchID on a watch... or better, your Heart Twave as a biometric).  No need to fish for a phone.   Touch your watch and buy.  

     

    Even the latter doesn't sound like a $199 value.   But when 'proof of wellness' is a requirement of your health plan (The $199 is an approved HSA/insurance expense, because health care providers will be dinged if someone gets diabetes on their watch (no pun intended)), then it's like printing money.   Helicopter (hovering) health obsessed parents will be buying them for their kids at birth (gotta monitor their blood sugar, incase grandma poisons them with frosted flakes)

     

    'Watch.'    Not so much.   that job is solved.

  • Reply 16 of 63

    Why is it that whenever an ANALyst predicts an iWatch I visualize Jim Carrey talking out of his ass in Ace Ventura?

  • Reply 17 of 63
    2old4fun2old4fun Posts: 237member
    An unannounced product is getting sales and profit projections from analysts that are lost now that the iPhones. What parts of this unannounced product are in short supply that is going to limit the sales because Mr. Cook can not manage the supply chain?
  • Reply 18 of 63
    lilgto64lilgto64 Posts: 1,147member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

     

    Apple predicted to sell as many as 30M iDildos.


     

    You can already buy a prodcut such as this: 

    http://www.ohmibod.com/wired-vibrators/ohmibod.php

  • Reply 19 of 63
    If and when Apple does comes out with an iWatch it unfortunately won't be a surprise. The watch casing will get leaked, the screen will get leaked, the watchband(s), will get leaked, the internals, the button(s), etc. All leaked.

    I miss the days of being genuinely surprised...
  • Reply 20 of 63
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    racingbull wrote: »
    no wait, it was 65 Million only a month ago: http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/08/28/apple-projected-to-ship-nearly-65m-iwatch-units-priced-at-199-in-first-year

    dude, that's a hell of a negative trend: Apple is doomed by the time it finally will release iWatch.

    *woof*

    Exactly. There's absolutely no basis for the 65 M number, nor is there any basis for the 10 M number. They're both clearly fabricated from thin air.

    The correct number for today is 0. There is no product and no announcement that there will be a product. It's ridiculous to even speculate on such a thing.

    Of course, we could have some fun with it:

    When Apple begins its space flights to Mars, they will have 20,000 customers per year.

    When Apple introduces sexbots, they will sell 14 M the first year (with availability surely limited by supply of the eyeball units which require special handling). CPU will be an A17 manufactured by Samsung.

    When Apple introduces their own sitcom, they will have 42 M viewers each week.

    And so on.
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