Looks like a good number for the iPhone, but it will have to be if the other lines arent growing.
The focus on declining YoY increases is to evaluate the growth left in that segment. I cant even believe I have to write that.
As for next quarter they sold 43 million phones in Q1 2012. A 20% beat would be about 51.5 million phones and put them on pace to see about 20 million more phones than the year before. Everything being equal that's about a 7% increase in the EPS yoy.
None of this means the products aren't great or the company isnt healthy it's simply means the stock's explosive growth is over until a profitable new product line comes out.
None of youre metrics are true, you are pulling numbers out of youre butt?
Q1 2012 - 37 millions iphones
Q1 2013 - 47 millions iphones
Google just had revenue growth of 12% YoY, and last I checked their stock was up 8% in after hours trading.
Oh, that's right: This kind of "analysis" is only meaningful if it's Apple.
Google is on a steady EPS climb while Apple EPS is flat for almost a full year now. The stock behave like it should imo. Apple needs to prove it can growth EPS again to go back to real stock price movement.
In 2013 Apple had small unit sales increase but with decreasing margins, so its flat on EPS. On the other hand its looking good for Q1 2014 since its looks like we will have significant unit sales increase with better margins. So probably better EPS.
None of youre metrics are true, you are pulling numbers out of youre butt?
Q1 2012 - 37 millions iphones
Q1 2013 - 47 millions iphones
My apology. I did indicated incorrectly it was Q1 2012 when it should have been Q1 2013, and for some reason I really screwed up on the iPhone number. In any event it was 47.8 million and the principal remains the same
In any event that just sets the bar even higher and the point remains the same. With a 20% beat now being close to 57 million phones and still having the same 7% impact on quarterly EPS. Hey, that's great, but next year are they going to do over 70 million in the quarter to keep that yoy growth at 20%? and the year after that about 84 million?
In any event that just sets the bar even higher and the point remains the same. With a 20% beat now being close to 57 million phones and still having the same 7% impact on quarterly EPS. Hey, that's great, but next year are they going to do over 70 million in the quarter to keep that yoy growth at 20%? and the year after that about 84 million?
Any thing wrong with my butt on that?
Yes. Last year 47 millions iphones came with very low margins. Lets assume they sell 57 millions iphones (probably too bullish) that is 21% YoY increase in unit sales. Margins will be better than last year by at least 2%, probably 3%. That means EPS will be much better.
"Yes. Last year 47 millions iphones came with very low margins. Lets assume they sell 57 millions iphones (probably too bullish) that is 21% YoY increase in unit sales. Margins will be better than last year by at least 2%, probably 3%. That means EPS will be much better."
I guess if they could get margins back up to the mid-40s it would move the share price, but that's a one time even and isnt a substitute for Revenue/EPS growth in the long run. Now you are calling 36% "very low," but even next quarter only projects to be around 38%. That will certainly be a positive for EPS, as will the share buybacks, but it's not the same as long term growth.
"Yes. Last year 47 millions iphones came with very low margins. Lets assume they sell 57 millions iphones (probably too bullish) that is 21% YoY increase in unit sales. Margins will be better than last year by at least 2%, probably 3%. That means EPS will be much better."
I guess if they could get margins back up to the mid-40s it would move the share price, but that's a one time even and isnt a substitute for Revenue/EPS growth in the long run. Now you are calling 36% "very low," but even next quarter only projects to be around 38%. That will certainly be a positive for EPS, as will the share buybacks, but it's not the same as long term growth.
We'll see how next year plays out.
Apple never stop growing in terms of revenu and unit sales. It stop growing EPS on lower margins. That effect will stop in Q1 2014 for a least a year on better margins on the 5c and 5s. The ipad mini margins should also improve, it was a new product last year, now its just a refresh.
The risk that remains are unit sales decrease or a bad ipad refresh but it doesnt look we are getting lower sales. So its time to get bullish on Apple imo.
Apple never stop growing in terms of revenu and unit sales. It stop growing EPS on lower margins. That effect will stop in Q1 2014 for a least a year on better margins on the 5c and 5s. The ipad mini margins should also improve, it was a new product last year, now its just a refresh.
The risk that remains are unit sales decrease or a bad ipad refresh but it doesnt look we are getting lower sales. So its time to get bullish on Apple imo.
Revenue has been pretty flat the last two quarters, and growth as a % has slowed dramatically. The stock price reflects that and will continue to reflect it.
With the added carriers and nations in opening weekend, wouldn't Verizon likely lose share of overall iPhone sales? I realize that AAPL is making some of its best headway in the US, eating into Blackberry and other companies' market shares. Nonetheless, I'd think Verizon will play a smaller, albeit still meaningful, role in total unit sales this year. Any thoughts or insights?
My point, if it was unclear, is that Verizon's 3.9M would imply a larger Q4 number if it is making up 8-9% of sales this year instead of 11-12%. My apologies for the incomplete comment.
Comments
None of youre metrics are true, you are pulling numbers out of youre butt?
Q1 2012 - 37 millions iphones
Q1 2013 - 47 millions iphones
Google is on a steady EPS climb while Apple EPS is flat for almost a full year now. The stock behave like it should imo. Apple needs to prove it can growth EPS again to go back to real stock price movement.
In 2013 Apple had small unit sales increase but with decreasing margins, so its flat on EPS. On the other hand its looking good for Q1 2014 since its looks like we will have significant unit sales increase with better margins. So probably better EPS.
None of youre metrics are true, you are pulling numbers out of youre butt?
Q1 2012 - 37 millions iphones
Q1 2013 - 47 millions iphones
My apology. I did indicated incorrectly it was Q1 2012 when it should have been Q1 2013, and for some reason I really screwed up on the iPhone number. In any event it was 47.8 million and the principal remains the same
In any event that just sets the bar even higher and the point remains the same. With a 20% beat now being close to 57 million phones and still having the same 7% impact on quarterly EPS. Hey, that's great, but next year are they going to do over 70 million in the quarter to keep that yoy growth at 20%? and the year after that about 84 million?
Any thing wrong with my butt on that?
Yes. Last year 47 millions iphones came with very low margins. Lets assume they sell 57 millions iphones (probably too bullish) that is 21% YoY increase in unit sales. Margins will be better than last year by at least 2%, probably 3%. That means EPS will be much better.
"Yes. Last year 47 millions iphones came with very low margins. Lets assume they sell 57 millions iphones (probably too bullish) that is 21% YoY increase in unit sales. Margins will be better than last year by at least 2%, probably 3%. That means EPS will be much better."
I guess if they could get margins back up to the mid-40s it would move the share price, but that's a one time even and isnt a substitute for Revenue/EPS growth in the long run. Now you are calling 36% "very low," but even next quarter only projects to be around 38%. That will certainly be a positive for EPS, as will the share buybacks, but it's not the same as long term growth.
We'll see how next year plays out.
Apple never stop growing in terms of revenu and unit sales. It stop growing EPS on lower margins. That effect will stop in Q1 2014 for a least a year on better margins on the 5c and 5s. The ipad mini margins should also improve, it was a new product last year, now its just a refresh.
The risk that remains are unit sales decrease or a bad ipad refresh but it doesnt look we are getting lower sales. So its time to get bullish on Apple imo.
Apple never stop growing in terms of revenu and unit sales. It stop growing EPS on lower margins. That effect will stop in Q1 2014 for a least a year on better margins on the 5c and 5s. The ipad mini margins should also improve, it was a new product last year, now its just a refresh.
The risk that remains are unit sales decrease or a bad ipad refresh but it doesnt look we are getting lower sales. So its time to get bullish on Apple imo.
Revenue has been pretty flat the last two quarters, and growth as a % has slowed dramatically. The stock price reflects that and will continue to reflect it.
My point, if it was unclear, is that Verizon's 3.9M would imply a larger Q4 number if it is making up 8-9% of sales this year instead of 11-12%. My apologies for the incomplete comment.