I'm just calling it as I see it, and don't appreciate terse posting doom/gloom (i.e. $300) based only on flat EPS this Q.
Let me rephrase, money/mouth is just calling posters out who like to say something to manipulate, if that's not you, my apologies, but again, that $300 post of yours kind of deserved it? I'm in no way saying investors should put all their money in something just because they "believe" in it.
I'll un-grump myself now.
If, that is "if", you reread my post you will note that it says nothing about this quarter.
[it's a long term statement... 'if Apple ever does this then this' sort of thing]
Someday, if EPS is flat...someday it may go to $300?
Just asking.
Sorry, I'm getting grumpy again.
No no... eps is already fairly flat. If margins are hit drastically then you will see $300... and I'm talking about over the next year or, sure, whenever.
It's not a statement that says that margins "will" be hit but, rather, a statement that shows what Apple cannot do if it wants to maintain the current share price.
Any hit to the margins will cause a hit to the stock. Margins keep AAPL alive and well at the moment.
Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.
For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS
I keep thinking that any indication of Apple's margin going south along with flat eps will send AAPL to $300.
Island, you may well be right and I may be wrong. I'm fully aware that Apple is walking a tightrope between growth and earnings. Somehow though, I can't help but feel they got the 5c wrong and erred too much on the side of earnings. The lead tech story on CNN today was "Is the iPhone 5c a flop" and other media outlets were running similar stories as was much of the tech. press. No matter how well the 5s (or even the 5c) sells, this kind of bad publicity is not helpful for the Apple brand.
I'd still like to see Apple go after the developing markets in a big way and I haven't seen anything yet that leads me to believe that they've figured out an effective strategy.
Island, you may well be right and I may be wrong. I'm fully aware that Apple is walking a tightrope between growth and earnings. Somehow though, I can't help but feel they got the 5c wrong and erred too much on the side of earnings. The lead tech story on CNN today was "Is the iPhone 5c a flop" and other media outlets were running similar stories as was much of the tech. press. No matter how well the 5s (or even the 5c) sells, this kind of bad publicity is not helpful for the Apple brand.
I'd still like to see Apple go after the developing markets in a big way and I haven't seen anything yet that leads me to believe that they've figured out an effective strategy.
I know what you're saying. It comes down to, 'how many units would Apple have to sell at a reduced margin to give enough comfort to Wall Street to raise their targets'. What constitutes growth. Would lowering prices, therefore reducing margins, have any effect. Questions questions.
I can't help think that Apple is better off staying the high margin course, at least for now. The devil you know. China and the developing nations seem to be the only areas where a lot of growth, the same type of growth we've seen from 2007 till now in the developed countries, can occur. The US and Europe are getting saturated.
The fiscal q4 coming at the end of the month isn't of too much interest to me but I always like to see the holiday fiscal q1 numbers.
Comments
grumpy?...ahem, yes a little. :-)
I'm just calling it as I see it, and don't appreciate terse posting doom/gloom (i.e. $300) based only on flat EPS this Q.
Let me rephrase, money/mouth is just calling posters out who like to say something to manipulate, if that's not you, my apologies, but again, that $300 post of yours kind of deserved it? I'm in no way saying investors should put all their money in something just because they "believe" in it.
I'll un-grump myself now.
If, that is "if", you reread my post you will note that it says nothing about this quarter.
[it's a long term statement... 'if Apple ever does this then this' sort of thing]
Yes, possibly...money flows in/out. Makes sense. Time value of trading is how big bucks are made, no doubt.
Common sense should reveal something more like 25/17 goog/aapl.
But I'll be the first to admit that share prices are anything but common sense. Can you admit the same?
Let's put it this way... there is a lot more common sense to share prices than the average joe blow is able to see.
Btw, the last time a tech stock rose over $100 in one day was 1999. Can you say bubble???
If, that is "if", you reread my post you will note that it says nothing about this quarter.
[it's a long term statement... 'if Apple ever does this then this' sort of thing]
....so you meant "someday"? As in:
Someday, if EPS is flat...someday it may go to $300?
Just asking.
Sorry, I'm getting grumpy again.
....so you meant "someday"? As in:
Someday, if EPS is flat...someday it may go to $300?
Just asking.
Sorry, I'm getting grumpy again.
No no... eps is already fairly flat. If margins are hit drastically then you will see $300... and I'm talking about over the next year or, sure, whenever.
It's not a statement that says that margins "will" be hit but, rather, a statement that shows what Apple cannot do if it wants to maintain the current share price.
Any hit to the margins will cause a hit to the stock. Margins keep AAPL alive and well at the moment.
Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.
For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS
Which the buyback should help with this.
I keep thinking that any indication of Apple's margin going south along with flat eps will send AAPL to $300.
Island, you may well be right and I may be wrong. I'm fully aware that Apple is walking a tightrope between growth and earnings. Somehow though, I can't help but feel they got the 5c wrong and erred too much on the side of earnings. The lead tech story on CNN today was "Is the iPhone 5c a flop" and other media outlets were running similar stories as was much of the tech. press. No matter how well the 5s (or even the 5c) sells, this kind of bad publicity is not helpful for the Apple brand.
I'd still like to see Apple go after the developing markets in a big way and I haven't seen anything yet that leads me to believe that they've figured out an effective strategy.
Island, you may well be right and I may be wrong. I'm fully aware that Apple is walking a tightrope between growth and earnings. Somehow though, I can't help but feel they got the 5c wrong and erred too much on the side of earnings. The lead tech story on CNN today was "Is the iPhone 5c a flop" and other media outlets were running similar stories as was much of the tech. press. No matter how well the 5s (or even the 5c) sells, this kind of bad publicity is not helpful for the Apple brand.
I'd still like to see Apple go after the developing markets in a big way and I haven't seen anything yet that leads me to believe that they've figured out an effective strategy.
I know what you're saying. It comes down to, 'how many units would Apple have to sell at a reduced margin to give enough comfort to Wall Street to raise their targets'. What constitutes growth. Would lowering prices, therefore reducing margins, have any effect. Questions questions.
I can't help think that Apple is better off staying the high margin course, at least for now. The devil you know. China and the developing nations seem to be the only areas where a lot of growth, the same type of growth we've seen from 2007 till now in the developed countries, can occur. The US and Europe are getting saturated.
The fiscal q4 coming at the end of the month isn't of too much interest to me but I always like to see the holiday fiscal q1 numbers.