Apple's 1st quarter is already history. Stock performance (share price) is based on future growth and earnings, so, yes, an argument can be made that Apple is messing up now. Why? Because in order to keep the juggernaut going, something has to happen in one way or another, like another killer iPhone app or a new killer category device.
People are expressing their concern that Apple's growth machine (the iPhone) is reaching its unit sales limit (indicated by ~10% YoY sales growth) and you joke about it?
The joke was people that believed that exponential growth could be maintained perpetually. Now I'd say it might be time to worry if a competitor was gaining but while Apple went forward its nearest competitor went back.
The joke was people that believed that exponential growth could be maintained perpetually. Now I'd say it might be time to worry if a competitor was gaining but while Apple went forward its nearest competitor went back.
I'd say they are all equally in trouble... some just have more to lose than others.
In the most basic layman's terms, then: Virtually everyone has an iPhone - or rather, nearly all of Apple's target demographic is already using Apple products and is well-invested in Apple's proven ecosystem - so "new growth" will slow.
So Apple owning the most desirable parts of the market that it created is a major problem? Growth will slow but Apple will still keep selling new devices to these consumers. But you've (that is, Apple) basically won the game here. So you can either continue to keep selling to these consumers and sustain *some* growth that will keep you lush and flush for years to come, or you can open up new revenue streams by keynoting The Next Big Thing and tying that in to what you already have, or taking it all to a new platform paradigm.
All I see here is a) something all companies aspire to but which Apple has mastered in their area(s) of competence, and b) astounding opportunity. You've basically got a customer base that *you own*, and which depends on you for their tech lifestyle. To whom you can now turn around and with a more than even chance bind them further to you with The Next Big Thing.
And none of the foregoing even considers China as a source *brand new* (rather than sustained) virgin growth.
Let's pretend everyone on Earth has an iPhone. Then what? How could Apple grow?
Would Apple need to open an Apple Store on Mars?
Exactly.
Steve saw this problem and knew that Apple would have to enter new markets for growth. Cook knows this too, of course, so it will be interesting to see what he picks. As Steve would agree... it's about picking that one thing in a hundred.
I can see the line-up at the Mars store from here...
People said the same thing when it dropped below 700
then 650
than 600
than 575
than 550
Personally I'm getting out ASAP. Once I can get a decent exit about $530. I will stay out until they release an amazing product.
I find myself feeling exactly the same. I spent a lot of time scraping money together to build a position in AAPL because I believed in the company and loved the products. I hoped that it would help to secure my retirement. But now I am not so sure. Cook is a weak leader who inspires no confidence. As CEO he has a fiduciary responsibility to the stockholders that I feel he has failed at. Yes, the stock is higher now than the day he got the job, but it may not be for long unless something changes. A new product catagory. Expanding market share of current product categories. Something to reignite growth.
As a financial analyst I am disturbed when I hear "we've had the best week of activations ever in China" and then hear that he expects revenues to be flat or even down from a year ago, which was before adding a potential of up to a Billion new customers. This tells me that he is expecting the gains from China to only (maybe) offset losses in other areas. At least in the next quarter or two.
Long term I am disturbed by the hoarding of cash. What exactly is Cook afraid of that he feels it is necessary to keep $150 Billion or so in (net) cash? Is he afraid that growth is slowing to the point that it will cease altogether? That they will actually have YoY sequential declines in profit until they are making no profit at alll? That sounds absurd on the face of it, but his refusal to do anything with that cash is also absurd, in my opinion. I would love them to buy DuckDuckGo and have their own search engine. I would love them to agressively go after content for Apple TV. I would love them to reduce the float by buying back more shares. But as of now they don't seem inclined to.
So i will be selling my entire position soon. I am hoping for a dead cat bounce tomorrow or Monday so I can get a decent exit point. Then I will wait. Since Cook has already told us not to expect any growth for at least the next three months I don't expect the stock to do much until the summer. Hopefully the iPhone 6 will have a larger screeen which might get new customers as well as current customers who are upgrading. Hopefully they will come out with a NEW product catagory, and get into mobie payments. Otherwise the stock may continue to disappoint.
Of course AAPL is also one of the largest holdings in many mutual funds, so even after I sell my common shares I will still have some skin in the game, but at least it won't be as painful as watching my stock portfolio die a slow death because of one bad investment.
Another thing people forget is that in the midst of exponential growth the stock went down to $80 in 2008. If the stock price is bothersome than don't pay it any mind.
Another thing people forget is that everything went down 50% in 2008
I find myself feeling exactly the same. I spent a lot of time scraping money together to build a position in AAPL because I believed in the company and loved the products. I hoped that it would help to secure my retirement. But now I am not so sure. Cook is a weak leader who inspires no confidence. As CEO he has a fiduciary responsibility to the stockholders that I feel he has failed at. Yes, the stock is higher now than the day he got the job, but it may not be for long unless something changes. A new product catagory. Expanding market share of current product categories. Something to reignite growth.
As a financial analyst I am disturbed when I hear "we've had the best week of activations ever in China" and then hear that he expects revenues to be flat or even down from a year ago, which was before adding a potential of up to a Billion new customers. This tells me that he is expecting the gains from China to only (maybe) offset losses in other areas. At least in the next quarter or two.
Long term I am disturbed by the hoarding of cash. What exactly is Cook afraid of that he feels it is necessary to keep $150 Billion or so in (net) cash? Is he afraid that growth is slowing to the point that it will cease altogether? That they will actually have YoY sequential declines in profit until they are making no profit at alll? That sounds absurd on the face of it, but his refusal to do anything with that cash is also absurd, in my opinion. I would love them to buy DuckDuckGo and have their own search engine. I would love them to agressively go after content for Apple TV. I would love them to reduce the float by buying back more shares. But as of now they don't seem inclined to.
So i will be selling my entire position soon. I am hoping for a dead cat bounce tomorrow or Monday so I can get a decent exit point. Then I will wait. Since Cook has already told us not to expect any growth for at least the next three months I don't expect the stock to do much until the summer. Hopefully the iPhone 6 will have a larger screeen which might get new customers as well as current customers who are upgrading. Hopefully they will come out with a NEW product catagory, and get into mobie payments. Otherwise the stock may continue to disappoint.
Of course AAPL is also one of the largest holdings in many mutual funds, so even after I sell my common shares I will still have some skin in the game, but at least it won't be as painful as watching my stock portfolio die a slow death because of one bad investment.
Cook has made me $125 per share since he took over. So sweet!
Sounds like a good choice for you. From your recent posts, I can feel your frustration like you don't have the stomach for the ride ahead. Too bad, because when you look at it objectively you'll be hard pressed to find a stock at this price, at this P/E (and don't forget to minus cash), at this EPS and with a platform so massive and with so much potential. For your sake, I hope you at least keep a few shares.
If you wait for the next big thing, you'd have missed the large rise in price...but then again, that's what happens with the masses (of us common investors). It's no wonder there are very few who make a LOT of money in the stock market. If you can't handle the heat, get out of the kitchen.
You want Apple to be bought out?! Or did you forget the /s?
The only entity on Earth with enough money to even make it be possible is themselves. I’d love them to go private. No more idiots who don’t comprehend the company decreasing its value, no more idiots who’ve done no work whining about how they “deserve” the money earned by others…
Comments
This is why stock buybacks are useless. Apple spent $50 billion buying their shares and the stock price is back to where it was last October.
Just think of where it would be if Apple hadn't bought back any shares.
The joke was people that believed that exponential growth could be maintained perpetually. Now I'd say it might be time to worry if a competitor was gaining but while Apple went forward its nearest competitor went back.
Smart investors have already done that.
Smart investors know that posting rants here will not change their fortunes.
True... but ranting can have its own positive psychological effects.
Ye of little faith.
The joke was people that believed that exponential growth could be maintained perpetually. Now I'd say it might be time to worry if a competitor was gaining but while Apple went forward its nearest competitor went back.
I'd say they are all equally in trouble... some just have more to lose than others.
[pointless and irrelevant comment about word a day calendars]
Stock would be $400-$450
I’m all for dropping the market cap to a purchasable level.
Exactly. It blows my mind people on this site have such a hard time understanding this. Apple isn't Doomed, but AAPL isn't quite as clear.
Considering the mean education level of the people on this site, it doesn't blow my mind.
Let's pretend everyone on Earth has an iPhone. Then what? How could Apple grow?
Would Apple need to open an Apple Store on Mars?
Still not right. The correct number would be 4.25.
In the most basic layman's terms, then: Virtually everyone has an iPhone - or rather, nearly all of Apple's target demographic is already using Apple products and is well-invested in Apple's proven ecosystem - so "new growth" will slow.
So Apple owning the most desirable parts of the market that it created is a major problem? Growth will slow but Apple will still keep selling new devices to these consumers. But you've (that is, Apple) basically won the game here. So you can either continue to keep selling to these consumers and sustain *some* growth that will keep you lush and flush for years to come, or you can open up new revenue streams by keynoting The Next Big Thing and tying that in to what you already have, or taking it all to a new platform paradigm.
All I see here is a) something all companies aspire to but which Apple has mastered in their area(s) of competence, and b) astounding opportunity. You've basically got a customer base that *you own*, and which depends on you for their tech lifestyle. To whom you can now turn around and with a more than even chance bind them further to you with The Next Big Thing.
And none of the foregoing even considers China as a source *brand new* (rather than sustained) virgin growth.
Let's pretend everyone on Earth has an iPhone. Then what? How could Apple grow?
Would Apple need to open an Apple Store on Mars?
Exactly.
Steve saw this problem and knew that Apple would have to enter new markets for growth. Cook knows this too, of course, so it will be interesting to see what he picks. As Steve would agree... it's about picking that one thing in a hundred.
I can see the line-up at the Mars store from here...
I find myself feeling exactly the same. I spent a lot of time scraping money together to build a position in AAPL because I believed in the company and loved the products. I hoped that it would help to secure my retirement. But now I am not so sure. Cook is a weak leader who inspires no confidence. As CEO he has a fiduciary responsibility to the stockholders that I feel he has failed at. Yes, the stock is higher now than the day he got the job, but it may not be for long unless something changes. A new product catagory. Expanding market share of current product categories. Something to reignite growth.
As a financial analyst I am disturbed when I hear "we've had the best week of activations ever in China" and then hear that he expects revenues to be flat or even down from a year ago, which was before adding a potential of up to a Billion new customers. This tells me that he is expecting the gains from China to only (maybe) offset losses in other areas. At least in the next quarter or two.
Long term I am disturbed by the hoarding of cash. What exactly is Cook afraid of that he feels it is necessary to keep $150 Billion or so in (net) cash? Is he afraid that growth is slowing to the point that it will cease altogether? That they will actually have YoY sequential declines in profit until they are making no profit at alll? That sounds absurd on the face of it, but his refusal to do anything with that cash is also absurd, in my opinion. I would love them to buy DuckDuckGo and have their own search engine. I would love them to agressively go after content for Apple TV. I would love them to reduce the float by buying back more shares. But as of now they don't seem inclined to.
So i will be selling my entire position soon. I am hoping for a dead cat bounce tomorrow or Monday so I can get a decent exit point. Then I will wait. Since Cook has already told us not to expect any growth for at least the next three months I don't expect the stock to do much until the summer. Hopefully the iPhone 6 will have a larger screeen which might get new customers as well as current customers who are upgrading. Hopefully they will come out with a NEW product catagory, and get into mobie payments. Otherwise the stock may continue to disappoint.
Of course AAPL is also one of the largest holdings in many mutual funds, so even after I sell my common shares I will still have some skin in the game, but at least it won't be as painful as watching my stock portfolio die a slow death because of one bad investment.
And do you really think that things would be different if Jobs was still alive? Only your mindset would be different.
I know they would be different, but I don't know in what way.
Another thing people forget is that in the midst of exponential growth the stock went down to $80 in 2008. If the stock price is bothersome than don't pay it any mind.
Another thing people forget is that everything went down 50% in 2008
Cook has made me $125 per share since he took over. So sweet!
Sold 150 shares at $500
I give up on this POS
Sounds like a good choice for you. From your recent posts, I can feel your frustration like you don't have the stomach for the ride ahead. Too bad, because when you look at it objectively you'll be hard pressed to find a stock at this price, at this P/E (and don't forget to minus cash), at this EPS and with a platform so massive and with so much potential. For your sake, I hope you at least keep a few shares.
If you wait for the next big thing, you'd have missed the large rise in price...but then again, that's what happens with the masses (of us common investors). It's no wonder there are very few who make a LOT of money in the stock market. If you can't handle the heat, get out of the kitchen.
Then I'm charging $125/hour to be their goddamned therapist.
I’m all for dropping the market cap to a purchasable level.
You want Apple to be bought out?! Or did you forget the /s?
You want Apple to be bought out?! Or did you forget the /s?
The only entity on Earth with enough money to even make it be possible is themselves. I’d love them to go private. No more idiots who don’t comprehend the company decreasing its value, no more idiots who’ve done no work whining about how they “deserve” the money earned by others…