Apple unlikely to launch 12.9" iPad or third-gen iPad mini in 2014, iPad Air to gain A8 & Touch ID

Posted:
in iPad edited March 2014
The iPad Air may be the only model in Apple's tablet lineup to receive a refresh this year, with an allegedly still-in-development 12.9-inch model unlikely to launch, and even a successor to the iPad mini with Retina display in doubt, according to one well-connected insider.

Retina iPad mini review


Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities issued a report Saturday evening obtained by AppleInsider, in which he predicted that overall iPad shipments will actually decline this year. That's because he expects that the iPad Air will be the only iPad model to see a refresh in 2014, gaining a next-generation A8 processor and Touch ID fingerprint sensor late in the third quarter of the year.

According to Kuo, development of the next iPad Air and a new 12.9-inch iPad will be the main focus for Apple in the tablet market this year. As such, progress on a new iPad mini will be affected, he believes.

As a result, Kuo said that the chances of a new iPad mini model in the second half of 2014 are "slim." He also doesn't expect that development on a new, larger 12.9-inch mode, sometimes referred to as an "iPad Pro," will be completed in time for a launch this year, leaving just an iPad Air with A8 CPU and Touch ID as the company's refreshed tablet.

Regarding the rumored 12.9-inch iPad, Kuo said he expects it to be a growth driver for the company, and will require a revised operating system to take advantage of the larger display. Apple's current iPad lineup tops out with a 9.7-inch screen on the iPad Air.

According to Kuo, Apple has placed its priorities on finishing the operating system for its anticipated "iWatch," which he says will launch this year. As a result, he doesn't expect that Apple will be able to finish the software for a larger "iPad Pro" by the end of 2014.

"Even if it (a larger iPad) does make an appearance this year, shipments will be low," he wrote.

Retina iPad mini review


Kuo has a strong track record with respect to predicting Apple's future product plans, having correctly predicted most of the company's 2013 product releases months before anyone else. He also revealed the company's entire fall 2012 lineup a year prior.

He predicts that total iPad shipments will fall from 34 million units in the first half of 2013 to below 30 million units in the first half of 2014. Without a new iPad mini or 12.9-inch iPad, he predicts that iPad shipments will decline this year, "unless more aggressive promotions are launched."

His forecast calls for iPad Air shipments to drop between 30 and 40 percent sequentially in the first quarter of calendar 2014, which runs through the end of March, which he referred to as a "slow season."

Kuo also claims that shipments of the new iPad mini with Retina display have been "weak" since that product debuted in the fourth quarter of calendar 2013. Apple's second-generation iPad mini is said to not have seen as strong of a debut as the first-generation model, which launched in late 2012 and was Apple's first tablet with a 7.9-inch display.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 75
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    What a steaming pile of crap!

    Even if the Mini doesn't get a complete redesign it would likely get bumped. Even if that bump is Touch ID and nothing else. Touch ID is a huge initiative for Apple, as such they will want to spread it across all hardware as soon as production capacity allows. Frankly Touch ID is a better fit for the Mini than the Air or Pro.

    Beyond that --- duh, a larger screen will require OS updates. This guy must think the rest of the world is composed of idiots. Apple has been working towards a more flexible OS for different sized displays for years now, they have this under control.

    The ore thing is this, Apple hasn't been sleeping through the winter like a bear. If there is an iPad Pro it likely has been in development for years now. If we are hearing rumors I can't see it being that far off.
  • Reply 2 of 75

    QUICK. BACKTRACK AND SHORT AAPL.

  • Reply 3 of 75
    The man is clueless - China Mobile taking off now and predicting decline?

    I say units will ramp - with Obamacare loaded up - ramping - small businesses are busy firing people - and need to be more efficient - Apple lets us small business operators to survive with this "great" health care plan

    As we saw in 2008-9 Apple sales started to ramp - horrible economy means we small business people have to be efficient - With Obamacare, more efficiency is required since we need to cut staff/do more ourselves or with fewer.

    Add to this Cooks great work adding Enterprise/schools/govt to iPADs - this broker analysis is dead wrong for ipad sales.

    Also expect IPHONE 6, WATCH, AND TV (OR BOX WITH GAMES) - SALES THIS YEAR WILL BE EXPLOSIVE!
  • Reply 4 of 75
    The man is clueless - China Mobile taking off now and predicting decline?

    I say units will ramp - with Obamacare loaded up - ramping - small businesses are busy firing people - and need to be more efficient - Apple lets us small business operators to survive with this "great" health care plan

    As we saw in 2008-9 Apple sales started to ramp - horrible economy means we small business people have to be efficient - With Obamacare, more efficiency is required since we need to cut staff/do more ourselves or with fewer.

    Add to this Cooks great work adding Enterprise/schools/govt to iPADs - this broker analysis is dead wrong for ipad sales.

    Also expect IPHONE 6, WATCH, AND TV (OR BOX WITH GAMES) - SALES THIS YEAR WILL BE EXPLOSIVE!
  • Reply 5 of 75
    The man is clueless - China Mobile taking off now and predicting decline?

    I say units will ramp - with Obamacare loaded up - ramping - small businesses are busy firing people - and need to be more efficient - Apple lets us small business operators to survive with this "great" health care plan

    As we saw in 2008-9 Apple sales started to ramp - horrible economy means we small business people have to be efficient - With Obamacare, more efficiency is required since we need to cut staff/do more ourselves or with fewer.

    Add to this Cooks great work adding Enterprise/schools/govt to iPADs - this broker analysis is dead wrong for ipad sales.

    Also expect IPHONE 6, WATCH, AND TV (OR BOX WITH GAMES) - SALES THIS YEAR WILL BE EXPLOSIVE!
  • Reply 6 of 75
    The man is clueless - China Mobile taking off now and predicting decline?

    I say units will ramp - with Obamacare loaded up - ramping - small businesses are busy firing people - and need to be more efficient - Apple lets us small business operators to survive with this "great" health care plan

    As we saw in 2008-9 Apple sales started to ramp - horrible economy means we small business people have to be efficient - With Obamacare, more efficiency is required since we need to cut staff/do more ourselves or with fewer.

    Add to this Cooks great work adding Enterprise/schools/govt to iPADs - this broker analysis is dead wrong for ipad sales.

    Also expect IPHONE 6, WATCH, AND TV (OR BOX WITH GAMES) - SALES THIS YEAR WILL BE EXPLOSIVE!
  • Reply 7 of 75
    The man is clueless - China Mobile taking off now and predicting decline?

    I say units will ramp - with Obamacare loaded up - ramping - small businesses are busy firing people - and need to be more efficient - Apple lets us small business operators to survive with this "great" health care plan

    As we saw in 2008-9 Apple sales started to ramp - horrible economy means we small business people have to be efficient - With Obamacare, more efficiency is required since we need to cut staff/do more ourselves or with fewer.

    Add to this Cooks great work adding Enterprise/schools/govt to iPADs - this broker analysis is dead wrong for ipad sales.

    Also expect IPHONE 6, WATCH, AND TV (OR BOX WITH GAMES) - SALES THIS YEAR WILL BE EXPLOSIVE!
  • Reply 8 of 75
    kpomkpom Posts: 653member
    Color me skeptical. Maybe Apple would attempt to differentiate the models more, but I'd think that both would get at least the bumps to the A8 and Touch ID.
  • Reply 9 of 75
    lerxtlerxt Posts: 186member
    Here we go again, the usual instant skeptics trash his analysis. The fact is that Ming is usually right.
  • Reply 10 of 75
    john.bjohn.b Posts: 2,740member

    Patiently waiting for an iPad mini with support for multiple profiles and Touch ID to select between them.  8-)

  • Reply 11 of 75
    'lather, rinse and repeat'...
  • Reply 12 of 75
    Ming is usually right so it excited me with his prediction of the iWatch.... but I'm so against an iPad pro cause who the hell wants to carry a heavy ass tablet? Even if its just for businesses, thats really limiting your customers... I dunno.
  • Reply 13 of 75
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    So let me get this straight...in 2013 Apple updated the full size iPad and iPad mini to wherethe only differentiator was size, but now we're supposed to believe they'll go away from that in 2014 and let the mini fall behind a generation? That makes zero sense. And what does working on new products have to do with updating the specs of the mini? One would assume Apple can do both at the same time.
  • Reply 14 of 75

    My immediate reaction was to protest Kuo's latest predications. I decided to dig into the archives to remind myself of any previous predictions Kuo made about the rumored 12.9" iPad. On Saturday, October 12, 2013, the following was attributed to Kuo, "Contrary to recent rumors, he doesn't expect Apple to launch a 12-inch iPad next year." Here is the link to the article... http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/10/12/apple-planning-to-launch-all-new-12-macbook-higher-res-sixth-gen-ipad-in-2014. So, Kuo's opinion has not changed in four months. Still, I look forward to learning if Kuo is proven correct or not with his latest predictions about the iPad mini.

  • Reply 15 of 75
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Shipments of the mini have been weak...what is he basing this on?

    If there is an issue with the mini it could be that the Air with its reduced size and weight because such a compelling product, or people were put off by the price increase. I still think not updating the mini this year is BS but IF Apple doesn't update it then I expect the current retina mini to get a price cut and the original mini to possibly be discontinued. This sh be the year where all Apple iOS devices are retina only.
  • Reply 16 of 75
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    john.b wrote: »
    Patiently waiting for an iPad mini with support for multiple profiles and Touch ID to select between them.  8-)

    That would be nice but I am not sure that will happen.

    For starters — and probably the simplest to overcome — Touch ID currently has a 5 finger limit. Is this limit because it felt right, you do have 5 fingers on a hand*, or because of some technical reason? If we assume they keep this 5 finger limit** for each user profile how many user profiles could there be before this gets overwhelming to process quickly? Lets say they make it 5 users, could Touch ID match against 25 potential prints as quickly as it can match up to 5?

    The bigger problem I see is making each account secure with as little redundancy as possible. Do you have Mail, Safari, Angry Birds, Kingdom Rush, whatever installed once with the user profiles separate or do you have the apps work as they do now but each user has their own installation? In either case how quickly would it load the new user profile. There are settings that require a quasi-reboot*** and even though is fast is it fast enough make this a viable feature? Could Apple just have all user profiles loaded and be switched like virtual desktops to make this faster? If so, how would this affect RAM and system performance?

    Perhaps Apple can solve all these issues but it would come at the expense of selling more devices to a family, right? I hate to be such a killjoy but this isn't sounding like it'll be coming.


    * I'm counting the thumb.
    ** I wonder if having one finger as opposed to five different fingers in Touch ID affects how long it takes to find a match? I wonder if the first finger is processed faster than the 5th finger in the list?
    *** Seems faster than having to restart but the UI and other services seem to be restarted. Changing the default system language seems to do this if my memory serves.
  • Reply 17 of 75
    The pro version will not be anything like the air. Apple will most likely have different features, multi-user support and some kind of integration with the Mac. It'll be a whole new platform not just a size increase. Making a bigger iPad isn't their goal, it'll be whole new computing paradigm. Can't wait to see what's in store.
  • Reply 18 of 75
    eriamjheriamjh Posts: 1,341member

    Touch ID is not much of an upgrade if you don't use a passcode.

     

    This garbage is why Apple doesn't like leaks.  It's just FUD.

  • Reply 19 of 75
    bobschlobbobschlob Posts: 1,074member

    Not enough touch Id material to go around.

     

    We know this is the way it goes (yeah, ok that could change), but we all know Apple has had significant problems with quantity production for almost 'everything' they come out with, for quite awhile.

     

    We'll see if that's going to change.

  • Reply 20 of 75
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by nyuestateplanninglawyer View Post



    The man is clueless ...

     

    actually, clueless is posting the same rant five times

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