Yet another anal-y-sis
I think there is something that report overlooked, the actual hardware account for a fraction of Apple revenu. Apple is makings a lot more money selling digital media and apps than selling iOS or Mac hardware.
Simply not true. If this is your analysis, you have little business criticising others'.
Not much wrong with the article apart from the comparison to MicroSoft. Apple has the premium end of the market sewn up with iPhone/iPad, and shows no serious inclination to go after the sectors which are growing. (Hey, we'll build a cheaper plastic iPhone and ... still charge a premium price for it.)
Of course Apple could spring on us a whole new category of devices, but I can't imagine it. The iPhone/iOS was brilliantly executed, but smartphones were in existence before the iPhone, and tablets before the iPad, just a world apart in usability. There may be a market for an iWatch, but I can't see this being as big as, or as profitable per device as the iPhone. Anyway, I want fewer gadgets, not another one.
They're not saying "Apple is doomed". It should grow solidly. But it's going to take something special, different, to regain the meteoric growth levels. Non story.
That would apply if the users were the end game for Facebook.
But Facebook has an ever-increasing amount of personal information that it can whore out to everyone and his mother in law, so they’ll keep growing.
A trip down memory lane to Dec 2008 yields:
This analyst's 12 month target price? $115
Apple's actual price Dec 2009? $195
Investors have been stepping aside from Apple since the infamous share price fiasco in 2012 when Apple handed over the smartphone market to Samsung. There's probably no recovery from that. It definitely left Wall Street and Apple shareholders with a bitter taste in their mouths. Most successful companies with wads of cash don't give their market share position away that easily. Even after this recent buyback Apple shares are still stuttering and misfiring like some ancient engine with bad plugs and fouled carbs. Everything Apple does is like pouring sugar into a gas tank and the share price tanks. Meanwhile, Google is running like a world-class F1 racer leaving Apple sucking fumes.
Apple really should have gone after Tesla to show that it means business. Every time Apple's share price moves up a bit, an analyst or two will jump in and say Apple has gone up TOO much and downgrade the stock. Apple's iPhone and tablet business has been completely overwhelmed by half-priced Android devices. Most consumers simply can't resist really cheap devices because they think they're getting a bargain. I'm not sure whether Apple deserves a downgrade or not but I always expect it to happen. The stock has no momentum whatsoever. It will move up and bit and then boom, analyst downgrade and share collapse. It's really a pain to be an Apple shareholder nowadays while the rest of the market is on a roll. At least I can count on the dividends to see me through. Apple refuses to play Wall Street's game and would rather sit on a mountain of cash than excite Wall Street investors. That's the breaks. Apple can't seem to increase institutional ownership which pretty much shows Apple has stagnated.
Well, it is. Eventually there comes a point where there isn’t a new audience for your product. It happened with the telephone, then the radio, then the television.
Thing is, it hasn’t even happened with the computer yet. And it won’t happen with the cell phone for quite some time, either.
And even when it does happen, that doesn’t mean the market is dead. Previous owners will always be buying new products of that category. Any fear in this regard is borne of idiocy.
pazuzu wrote: »
They called it right
Apple needs a new product line very soon.
tnsf wrote: »
Oh please, maturing smartphone market... Its not a real thing.
What about something which would enable you to monitor the most precious thing you possess : your health ?
Been reading this board for several years but first time post. Yeah, I am a share holder. I have to laugh to the responses here when investment firms downgrade APPL, Face it folks, until Apple develops new products the stock is range bound. I think we have been fortunate it has stayed above $500. Apple is a growth company and until there are signs of growth, no buy back, dividend increase, etc., is going to really move the valuation or the stock price. Its the way of the market. I own a few shares of Tesla, unfortunately not enough, and it announced it is going to sell an additional 3-5,000 cars next year and the stock price doubled. makes no sense, but that is the way it is....
You're on the wrong forum if you own APPL stock. The fundamental issue is that AAPL's valuation is already artificially low. When you remove cash, it's P/E is less than 8. For sure, a company's actual value versus the stockmarket's valuation is not going to match up because most stock traders are nothing more than gamblers. Over the next 10 years, AAPL will continue to increase in actual value. Whether the stock price reflects that is, as always, a guess.
Well, we have to separate what Wall Street wants from Apple from what WE want out of Apple, and they are two different things. Wall Street wants continuous growth to justify the stock price. WE want great, quality products, innovation, etc., and don’t really care about marketshare and the race to the bottom. Instead of Microsoft let’s take AT&T. T has been trading in a narrow range ($30-$35) for at least the last decade and they are still one of the most widely held stocks in the world. They pay a nice dividend and nobody is worried about AT&T going out of business. It’s a safe stock for mom and pop’s retirement IRA. As a few analysts have pointed out Apple is bedeviled by the law of large numbers. There’s no way they can continue to grow at the pace they have for the last decade. So Wall Street is apoplectic.
Finally, whoever said the stock market is rational? Just look at GOOG for the perfect example of this irrationality.
Apple really should have gone after Tesla to show that it means business. I do not think you would have been happy because here what would have happened if Apple had done or does as you write... Every time Apple's share price moves up a bit, an analyst or two will jump in and say Apple has gone up TOO much and downgrade the stock. Wall Street would have found a way to shred the purchase and make it a negative. Not one positive would have been written about the purchase.
After selling 51 million iPhones and 26 million iPads, which were more than it had ever sold in a three-month period, Wall Street and you were not happy. Apple earned more money than it had ever earned. The amount ranked Apple as the fourth largest ever earned by any company in the world and the largest by a non-oil company. Wall Street dumped Apple's stock. You now write... Apple's iPhone and tablet business has been completely overwhelmed by half-priced Android devices.
Of the 210 million mobile phones in the USA market in 2013, Apple reportedly captured 45% or 94.5 million of the sold mobile phones. What does Barclay's decide to do? Downgrade Apple. What do you write? Apple refuses to play Wall Street's game and would rather sit on a mountain of cash than excite Wall Street investors.
Apple cannot win because Wall Street has chosen to not allow it to win.