They use statistical sampling from survey's. IMO this is much more accurate than what IDC pushes out since this is units that were ACTUALLY SOLD to end users instead of shipped. This is also worldwide unlike just a US survey.
Secondary evidence is Apple profits (80% of the industry) and web usage (80%).
I have seen ZERO secondary evidence that Samdung phones are outselling or even close to either the 5S or 5C.
When did Apple release sales figures for the 5C? And do you really believe Samsung is shipping phones that they ever sell? Eventually that would show up in financials, like Microsoft's Surface write down, no?
With all the talk about larger iPhone 6 models I think it's very important to ask whether the 5s is #1 because it's an iPhone or because it's a good size for a lot of customers. It can be argued the the market has chosen large phones because small Android phones are never more than a blip on the sales radar, but most small Android phones are horribly crippled devices. Apple is the only company making a flagship quality 4" phone.
What happens if Apple drops 4" in favour of 4.7" and Samsung (as you know they will) jumps into the hole with a flagship 4"-4.2" phone? Might Apple lose as many customers as it gains?
Probably not, but every thread about phone size attracts people who claim that most current phones are too big and some who even think the iPhone 5 is.
island hermit: "... and yet the S4, now a year old, is still in 2nd or 3rd place. Makes that "no longer 'new'" argument seem a bit pale."
The iPhone 5s is also a 2013 model. Samsung will be coming out soon with the Galaxy S5, and shortly after that Apple will come out with the iPhone 6... but in the meantime, it is fair to compare the two 2013 model phones.
Probably not, but every thread about phone size attracts people who claim that most current phones are too big and some who even think the iPhone 5 is.
Not really. It is the same 5 or 10 people that are just prolific posters and every single story about a new larger iPhone they chime in talking about their desire for another 3.5" or to keep a 4". I wonder how many people really would prefer a 4" iPhone to a 4.7" when they are side by side. Probably not that many especially since it likely will not be much larger in the actual dimensions to a 4". In survey after survey of iPhone owners larger sizes are preferred. Apple has shown no hesitation in the past at ending popular designs for something new. I expect the 5s will be the last flagship iPhone at 4". They may sell a iPhone 6c as a 4" but I see all premium iPhone models being the larger ones.
I wonder how many people really would prefer a 4" iPhone to a 4.7" when they are side by side.
It all depends on what you lose for that enlarged display. AI uses the same silly side-by-side mockups that not only increases the screen size but the header, footers, bezel and every other aspect of the footprint in relation to the screen size. I don't think we'll see an iPhone that is literally built for giants. I suspect something like they did with the iPhone 4S to the iPhone 5, but I think it's a reach to expect them to be able to make it both lighter and smaller than the previous model with the smaller display. I think they'll do wonders to get as close to that as possible so that the user experience isn't hindered in relation to the gain in screen real-estate. It's all about tradeoffs.
Also working in Apple's favor is the increasing number of consumers who are choosing new service plans with early-upgrade options, rather than traditional two-year contracts with large handset subsidies, he argued. This could help to augment Apple's growth in mature markets where the majority of target customers already own recent-model iPhones.
The counterpoint to this view is the parallel trend of consumers migrating over to contract-free plans with zero subsidies on AT&T and T-Mobile. With consumers paying the full cost of the phone up front (or financing it on an installment plan), I would think that creates a disincentive to frequent upgrades. Much of the analyst speculation is that any move away from subsidized two-year plans towards a contract-free BYOD market hurts high end smartphones, which in turn disproportionately impacts Apple.
I'm on a BYOD prepaid plan, and paid the full $749 cost for a 32GB 5s. I certainly don't feel like making that kind of up front outlay again anytime soon. Then again, one advantage of buying a factory unlocked phone is the higher resale value, which reduces the net cost for the next round.
The counterpoint to this view is the parallel trend of consumers migrating over to contract-free plans with zero subsidies on AT&T and T-Mobile. With consumers paying the full cost of the phone up front (or financing it on an installment plan), I would think that creates a disincentive to frequent upgrades. Much of the analyst speculation is that any move away from subsidized two-year plans towards a contract-free BYOD market hurts high end smartphones, which in turn disproportionately impacts Apple.
I'm on a BYOD prepaid plan, and paid the full $749 cost for a 32GB 5s. I certainly don't feel like making that kind of up front outlay again anytime soon. Then again, one advantage of buying a factory unlocked phone is the higher resale value, which reduces the net cost for the next round.
I have a 5s I bought with subsidy that I was able to unlock very easily with a phone call to Sprint. I also unlocked my 4s and sold it on Ebay as unlocked to a guy in UAE for $370 even though I paid $199 for it. But I take your point about the changing subsidy models. Sprint Framily plans for example require you to pay full price but also allow you to pay in installments over 24 months with 0% interest. Once it is paid off your monthly plan is reduced to just the plan which can be as low as $45 a month for unlimited everything or $$25 a month for unlimited texts/voice and 1GB data. Those types of plans can appeal to a lot of people that don't mind keeping a phone 2 or 3 years.
The Galaxy S4 is a a much older phone than the 5s. Wasn't it released around April last year? For all the people here that continue to say large display phones don't sell in any significant quantity, the chart above seems to disagree with you. In fact nearly all the 2nd and 3rd place spots are large display phones. Once the Galaxy S5 is released soon it could move the iPhone 5s to 2nd place. The only way Apple has any hope of ever maintaining 1st place throughout the year is to release a larger display. If the rumors of the 5.5" iPhone turn out to be true, they should release the 4.7" around the same time they have always used for new iPhones and a 5.5" around 6 months later to help maintain excitement and dampen enthusiasm for Samsung's Galaxy intro around the same time.
Nobody knows because there isn't a true apples-to-apples comparison case out there. All of the flagship Android phones use larger screens than the iPhone. Those Android phones that feature smaller screens are crippled with slower processors and missing features. Someone who wants a top-of-the-line Android phone must also take the large screen. With both iOS and Android, consumers don't have true screen size choices, so nobody can authoritatively say what sales would be if a true option between comparably spec'd 4" and 4.7"+ models actually existed.
The only 4" top-of-the-line smartphone on the market is the iPhone 5s, which also happens to be the best selling model worldwide. Maintaining 1st place year-round is meaningless, given how front-loaded flagship model sales are in their introductory quarter. Anyone looking at historical trends can see the seasonality of iPhone sales.
island hermit: "... and yet the S4, now a year old, is still in 2nd or 3rd place. Makes that "no longer 'new'" argument seem a bit pale."
The iPhone 5s is also a 2013 model. Samsung will be coming out soon with the Galaxy S5, and shortly after that Apple will come out with the iPhone 6... but in the meantime, it is fair to compare the two 2013 model phones.
HTC One M8 was released on March 25. How does it take second place at Verizon? So the numbers are shipped not actual sales? Further, it easily trumped Samsung in March. Does it mean Verizon did not order too much Samsung S4 and did not order any S5?
There was an immediate BOGO offer on the M8. I initially thought it was for the remaining stock of M7s.
Apple is #1, #2 and #5. So they are #1. Samsung meanwhile has half the devices in the top 10 including 2 in the top 5. That is a great spot to be in. They are clearly the #2 smartphone maker. Clearly a good position to be in. Also, Apple is not going to be the only smartphone maker in the world. Everyone else is not going to just give up and stick with feature phones. Folks are not going to just stop making tablets either. So if it wasn't Samsung on that list, it would just be somebody else.
P.S. Amazon is going to come out with their own Android (actually Kindle) smartphone later this year. So I guess you are going to root for them? Or against?
island hermit ignoring the fact that 5C is the #2 phone in the world for Jan and Feb 2014
And you're ignoring the diagram included in the article. I can't remember ever not seeing a iPhone in the number 3 spot until now. I wouldn't be surprised if sales fail to meet expectations.
Top 10 smartphone* list of February 2014
Rank Brand Model Category
1 Apple iPhone 5S smartphone
2 Apple iPhone 5C smartphone
3 Samsung Galaxy S4 smartphone
3 Samsung Note 3 smartphone
5 Apple iPhone 4S smartphone
6 Samsung Galaxy S4 Mini smartphone
7 Xiaomi Hongmi Redrice smartphone
8 Samsung Galaxy S3 smartphone
9 Samsung Galaxy S3 mini smartphone
10 Xiaomi MI 3 smartphone
Apple is #1, #2 and #5. So they are #1. Samsung meanwhile has half the devices in the top 10 including 2 in the top 5. That is a great spot to be in. They are clearly the #2 smartphone maker. Clearly a good position to be in. Also, Apple is not going to be the only smartphone maker in the world. Everyone else is not going to just give up and stick with feature phones. Folks are not going to just stop making tablets either. So if it wasn't Samsung on that list, it would just be somebody else.
P.S. Amazon is going to come out with their own Android (actually Kindle) smartphone later this year. So I guess you are going to root for them? Or against?
(Quote formatting removed because Huddler still lets posters use HTML without correcting issues)
I don't think that chart is working for you the way you think it is. Apple has 30% of the Top 10 spots which include a device that came out back in 2011 at spot number 5. Those are the all the smartphones they are selling. They don't sell the iPhone 5, iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4G or original iPhone so they can't possibly dominate those other spots.
On top of that your un-cited chart has the Samsung Galaxy S4 and Note 3 between the iPhone 5C and iPhone 4S. Higher than an iPhone came out 30 months ago v two flagship device that came 11 and 6 months ago, respectively, doesn't look good. The article in which you're posting has charts that make the 5C and 4S look bad and the Galaxy S4 et al. Android-based devices look good, but your chart do not.
Finally, just mentioning anything after the 30 month old iPhone 4S and Xiaomi hurts Samsung's image even further.
And you're ignoring the diagram included in the article. I can't remember ever not seeing a iPhone in the number 3 spot until now. I wouldn't be surprised if sales fail to meet expectations.
Actually, I'm just ignoring Sog. I have had him blocked for quite a while now. One rampage too many... lol
(Quote formatting removed because Huddler still lets posters use HTML without correcting issues)
I don't think that chart is working for you the way you think it is. Apple has 30% of the Top 10 spots which include a device that came out back in 2011 at spot number 5. Those are the all the smartphones they are selling. They don't sell the iPhone 5, iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4G or original iPhone so they can't possibly dominate those other spots.
On top of that your un-cited chart has the Samsung Galaxy S4 and Note 3 between the iPhone 5C and iPhone 4S. Higher than an iPhone came out 30 months ago v two flagship device that came 11 and 6 months ago, respectively, doesn't look good. The article in which you're posting has charts that make the 5C and 4S look bad and the Galaxy S4 et al. Android-based devices look good, but your chart do not.
Finally, just mentioning anything after the 30 month old iPhone 4S and Xiaomi hurts Samsung's image even further.
I said that Apple was the #1 smart phone maker, did I not?
2. "Those are the all the smartphones they are selling. They don't sell the iPhone 5, iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4G or original iPhone so they can't possibly dominate those other spots."
True but irrelevant. Having more devices on the market is part of Samsung's strategy. Since Samsung is one of the biggest electronics manufacturers in the world, they can leverage that by making more devices and writing off the phones that do not sell. Apple doesn't need to do that, which is why they are #1. But that is not the point. The point is that the other, smaller manufacturers like LG, HTC, Nokia etc. can't do that because that business model would cause them to go bankrupt in 18 months. They can't match Samsung's range of devices on the market or volume manufacturing/shipping or huge advertising strategy. That is why they are, well, behind Samsung and will stay there. Samsung's only real competition in the Android space right now is Amazon, and will be until Google gets serious about their Google Play line in 2015.
3."Higher than an iPhone came out 30 months ago v two flagship device that came 11 and 6 months ago, respectively, doesn't look good."
Is looking good the object, or is selling phones? Windows and HTC look good but they have like 5% of the smartphone market between them.
4. "Android-based devices look good, but your chart do not."
How, when 7 of the 10 devices on the chart are Android phones?
5. "Finally, just mentioning anything after the 30 month old iPhone 4S and Xiaomi hurts Samsung's image even further."
If being the #2 smartphone maker is bad for your image, what does that say about #3?
Any way you slice it, Samsung is in a good position. They are the #2 smartphone and tablet maker despite having no ecosystem to drive their devices like Microsoft, Apple and Amazon (tablets and streaming device with a phone coming out this year). And should they ever have any reason to switch from Android, they can just switch to their own OS which natively runs Android apps.
Samsung only "looks bad" to those who have convinced themselves that Apple would be the only smart device maker on the planet with absolutely no competition were it not for Samsung. But as stated earlier, if Samsung weren't #2, another Android smart device maker would be.
Comments
I'm under the impression that the announcement and release happened then same day.
What happens if Apple drops 4" in favour of 4.7" and Samsung (as you know they will) jumps into the hole with a flagship 4"-4.2" phone? Might Apple lose as many customers as it gains?
Probably not, but every thread about phone size attracts people who claim that most current phones are too big and some who even think the iPhone 5 is.
The iPhone 5s is also a 2013 model. Samsung will be coming out soon with the Galaxy S5, and shortly after that Apple will come out with the iPhone 6... but in the meantime, it is fair to compare the two 2013 model phones.
Probably not, but every thread about phone size attracts people who claim that most current phones are too big and some who even think the iPhone 5 is.
Not really. It is the same 5 or 10 people that are just prolific posters and every single story about a new larger iPhone they chime in talking about their desire for another 3.5" or to keep a 4". I wonder how many people really would prefer a 4" iPhone to a 4.7" when they are side by side. Probably not that many especially since it likely will not be much larger in the actual dimensions to a 4". In survey after survey of iPhone owners larger sizes are preferred. Apple has shown no hesitation in the past at ending popular designs for something new. I expect the 5s will be the last flagship iPhone at 4". They may sell a iPhone 6c as a 4" but I see all premium iPhone models being the larger ones.
It all depends on what you lose for that enlarged display. AI uses the same silly side-by-side mockups that not only increases the screen size but the header, footers, bezel and every other aspect of the footprint in relation to the screen size. I don't think we'll see an iPhone that is literally built for giants. I suspect something like they did with the iPhone 4S to the iPhone 5, but I think it's a reach to expect them to be able to make it both lighter and smaller than the previous model with the smaller display. I think they'll do wonders to get as close to that as possible so that the user experience isn't hindered in relation to the gain in screen real-estate. It's all about tradeoffs.
The counterpoint to this view is the parallel trend of consumers migrating over to contract-free plans with zero subsidies on AT&T and T-Mobile. With consumers paying the full cost of the phone up front (or financing it on an installment plan), I would think that creates a disincentive to frequent upgrades. Much of the analyst speculation is that any move away from subsidized two-year plans towards a contract-free BYOD market hurts high end smartphones, which in turn disproportionately impacts Apple.
I'm on a BYOD prepaid plan, and paid the full $749 cost for a 32GB 5s. I certainly don't feel like making that kind of up front outlay again anytime soon. Then again, one advantage of buying a factory unlocked phone is the higher resale value, which reduces the net cost for the next round.
The counterpoint to this view is the parallel trend of consumers migrating over to contract-free plans with zero subsidies on AT&T and T-Mobile. With consumers paying the full cost of the phone up front (or financing it on an installment plan), I would think that creates a disincentive to frequent upgrades. Much of the analyst speculation is that any move away from subsidized two-year plans towards a contract-free BYOD market hurts high end smartphones, which in turn disproportionately impacts Apple.
I'm on a BYOD prepaid plan, and paid the full $749 cost for a 32GB 5s. I certainly don't feel like making that kind of up front outlay again anytime soon. Then again, one advantage of buying a factory unlocked phone is the higher resale value, which reduces the net cost for the next round.
I have a 5s I bought with subsidy that I was able to unlock very easily with a phone call to Sprint. I also unlocked my 4s and sold it on Ebay as unlocked to a guy in UAE for $370 even though I paid $199 for it. But I take your point about the changing subsidy models. Sprint Framily plans for example require you to pay full price but also allow you to pay in installments over 24 months with 0% interest. Once it is paid off your monthly plan is reduced to just the plan which can be as low as $45 a month for unlimited everything or $$25 a month for unlimited texts/voice and 1GB data. Those types of plans can appeal to a lot of people that don't mind keeping a phone 2 or 3 years.
The Galaxy S4 is a a much older phone than the 5s. Wasn't it released around April last year? For all the people here that continue to say large display phones don't sell in any significant quantity, the chart above seems to disagree with you. In fact nearly all the 2nd and 3rd place spots are large display phones. Once the Galaxy S5 is released soon it could move the iPhone 5s to 2nd place. The only way Apple has any hope of ever maintaining 1st place throughout the year is to release a larger display. If the rumors of the 5.5" iPhone turn out to be true, they should release the 4.7" around the same time they have always used for new iPhones and a 5.5" around 6 months later to help maintain excitement and dampen enthusiasm for Samsung's Galaxy intro around the same time.
Nobody knows because there isn't a true apples-to-apples comparison case out there. All of the flagship Android phones use larger screens than the iPhone. Those Android phones that feature smaller screens are crippled with slower processors and missing features. Someone who wants a top-of-the-line Android phone must also take the large screen. With both iOS and Android, consumers don't have true screen size choices, so nobody can authoritatively say what sales would be if a true option between comparably spec'd 4" and 4.7"+ models actually existed.
The only 4" top-of-the-line smartphone on the market is the iPhone 5s, which also happens to be the best selling model worldwide. Maintaining 1st place year-round is meaningless, given how front-loaded flagship model sales are in their introductory quarter. Anyone looking at historical trends can see the seasonality of iPhone sales.
well, that kills the idea that people in the US only buy cheap or free android phones.
island hermit: "... and yet the S4, now a year old, is still in 2nd or 3rd place. Makes that "no longer 'new'" argument seem a bit pale."
The iPhone 5s is also a 2013 model. Samsung will be coming out soon with the Galaxy S5, and shortly after that Apple will come out with the iPhone 6... but in the meantime, it is fair to compare the two 2013 model phones.
That wasn't the point.
There was an immediate BOGO offer on the M8. I initially thought it was for the remaining stock of M7s.
A bit more context for the Samsung basher:
Top 10 smartphone* list of February 2014
Apple is #1, #2 and #5. So they are #1. Samsung meanwhile has half the devices in the top 10 including 2 in the top 5. That is a great spot to be in. They are clearly the #2 smartphone maker. Clearly a good position to be in. Also, Apple is not going to be the only smartphone maker in the world. Everyone else is not going to just give up and stick with feature phones. Folks are not going to just stop making tablets either. So if it wasn't Samsung on that list, it would just be somebody else.
P.S. Amazon is going to come out with their own Android (actually Kindle) smartphone later this year. So I guess you are going to root for them? Or against?
And you're ignoring the diagram included in the article. I can't remember ever not seeing a iPhone in the number 3 spot until now. I wouldn't be surprised if sales fail to meet expectations.
(Quote formatting removed because Huddler still lets posters use HTML without correcting issues)
I don't think that chart is working for you the way you think it is. Apple has 30% of the Top 10 spots which include a device that came out back in 2011 at spot number 5. Those are the all the smartphones they are selling. They don't sell the iPhone 5, iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4G or original iPhone so they can't possibly dominate those other spots.
On top of that your un-cited chart has the Samsung Galaxy S4 and Note 3 between the iPhone 5C and iPhone 4S. Higher than an iPhone came out 30 months ago v two flagship device that came 11 and 6 months ago, respectively, doesn't look good. The article in which you're posting has charts that make the 5C and 4S look bad and the Galaxy S4 et al. Android-based devices look good, but your chart do not.
Finally, just mentioning anything after the 30 month old iPhone 4S and Xiaomi hurts Samsung's image even further.
And you're ignoring the diagram included in the article. I can't remember ever not seeing a iPhone in the number 3 spot until now. I wouldn't be surprised if sales fail to meet expectations.
Actually, I'm just ignoring Sog. I have had him blocked for quite a while now. One rampage too many... lol
2 of those 'select' carriers account for 2 out of 3 people in the US. Their sales numbers are not something to be taken lightly.
(Quote formatting removed because Huddler still lets posters use HTML without correcting issues)
I don't think that chart is working for you the way you think it is. Apple has 30% of the Top 10 spots which include a device that came out back in 2011 at spot number 5. Those are the all the smartphones they are selling. They don't sell the iPhone 5, iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4G or original iPhone so they can't possibly dominate those other spots.
On top of that your un-cited chart has the Samsung Galaxy S4 and Note 3 between the iPhone 5C and iPhone 4S. Higher than an iPhone came out 30 months ago v two flagship device that came 11 and 6 months ago, respectively, doesn't look good. The article in which you're posting has charts that make the 5C and 4S look bad and the Galaxy S4 et al. Android-based devices look good, but your chart do not.
Finally, just mentioning anything after the 30 month old iPhone 4S and Xiaomi hurts Samsung's image even further.
My un-cited chart? http://www.counterpointresearch.com/top-10-smartphones-in-february-2014
With that out of the way:
1. "Apple has 30% of the Top 10 spots".
I said that Apple was the #1 smart phone maker, did I not?
2. "Those are the all the smartphones they are selling. They don't sell the iPhone 5, iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4G or original iPhone so they can't possibly dominate those other spots."
True but irrelevant. Having more devices on the market is part of Samsung's strategy. Since Samsung is one of the biggest electronics manufacturers in the world, they can leverage that by making more devices and writing off the phones that do not sell. Apple doesn't need to do that, which is why they are #1. But that is not the point. The point is that the other, smaller manufacturers like LG, HTC, Nokia etc. can't do that because that business model would cause them to go bankrupt in 18 months. They can't match Samsung's range of devices on the market or volume manufacturing/shipping or huge advertising strategy. That is why they are, well, behind Samsung and will stay there. Samsung's only real competition in the Android space right now is Amazon, and will be until Google gets serious about their Google Play line in 2015.
3."Higher than an iPhone came out 30 months ago v two flagship device that came 11 and 6 months ago, respectively, doesn't look good."
Is looking good the object, or is selling phones? Windows and HTC look good but they have like 5% of the smartphone market between them.
4. "Android-based devices look good, but your chart do not."
How, when 7 of the 10 devices on the chart are Android phones?
5. "Finally, just mentioning anything after the 30 month old iPhone 4S and Xiaomi hurts Samsung's image even further."
If being the #2 smartphone maker is bad for your image, what does that say about #3?
Any way you slice it, Samsung is in a good position. They are the #2 smartphone and tablet maker despite having no ecosystem to drive their devices like Microsoft, Apple and Amazon (tablets and streaming device with a phone coming out this year). And should they ever have any reason to switch from Android, they can just switch to their own OS which natively runs Android apps.
Samsung only "looks bad" to those who have convinced themselves that Apple would be the only smart device maker on the planet with absolutely no competition were it not for Samsung. But as stated earlier, if Samsung weren't #2, another Android smart device maker would be.