Earnings preview: Wall Street expects flat March quarter, awaiting new products in late 2014

13

Comments

  • Reply 41 of 67
    Yes!

    Interesting. Considering that Apple hasn't done that in quite a while.

    Yeah, but both you and I (and many others here) think that they are overdue.

    Apple has at least a year lead with the 64-bit A7/A8 -- they need to exploit that lead. AFAIK, the only tech that could hold that back is availability of LPDDR4 DRAM - which provides double bandwidth at equal power to current LPDDR3, Apple could mitigate that by releasing a larger (12"} iPad with more (4GB - 8GB) LPDDR3 DRAM and a bigger battery. Also, while not an iPad, Apple could release a MacBook Air with ARM -- running OSX and/or iOS.

    I could see announce at WWDC, June 9 Pre-order, and availability July-August.

    1000
    According to Margolis, Micron is ramping up production of its LPDDR4 RAM and will supply Apple with memory chips for its 2014 iPad, iPhone and Mac models, which are expected to debut later this year. Margolis believes a "mystery" $250 million payment Micro received for "product to be supplied through September 2016" is from Apple as part of a multi-year deal

    http://www.macrumors.com/2014/04/03/micron-apple-ddr4-ram/
  • Reply 42 of 67
    tkell31tkell31 Posts: 216member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    First off revenue growth does not mean jack sheet if you are not increasing profit.

     

    Second, don't take the BS non-GAAP Google numbers.  GAAP is the standard for financial reporting and it blows my mind that Wall Street allows Google to use their own reporting standards.  Google's non-GAAP reporting does not take into account stock compensation and losses from discountinued operations (aka Motorola) how convient.  Lets look at GAAP Earnings per share growth.

     

    Google

    Q1 2013 - $4.97 earnings per share

    Q1 2014 - $5.04 earnings per share

    1.4% earnings growth

     

    Apple

    Q1 2013 (Dec Qtr) - $13.81 earnings per share

    Q1 2014 (Dec Qtr) - $14.50 earnings per share

    5.0% earnings growth

     

    Now tell me which company is growing earnings?

     

    Google is BUYING revenue with acquisitions but their earnings is stalling.

     

    And Google's monopoly in search is no longer relevant:

    Facebook has its own search feature without Google

    Twitter has its own search feature

    Apple App store also.

    And Yahoo is trying to be the default search on iOS devices. 

     

    The last one alone could take away 20% of Google's revenues.


    Please tell me you aren't this stupid.  Did Apple's earnings grow or did the number of shares outstanding just decrease?  

  • Reply 43 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    WTF are you talking about.

     

    Those things have ALREADY happened (Twitter search, Facebook search, Siri search, App store search, Yahoo talking to Apple about default iOS search).  Google's search business is already threatened by being splintered.  Not to mention that mobile search margins are much lower than desktop.  Google's cost per click has been going down 10 straight quarters.

     

    In order to justify its share price relative to Apple, Google would need to increase revenues by 100% (to match Apple's $40 EPS per year).  You really think Google can double its search revenue by 100%????


    Can't you discuss in adult manner, or you are just another teen? Then I shouldn't have replied to you in first place.

    You answered your own question. Since all those thing already happened to Google and even after that Google Got 31% growth last year same quarter and 19% this quarter.

    Apple with close to no competition in high end, got 10% growth last year same quarter and expected 0% growth this quarter.

    This explains high valuation for Google :)

  • Reply 44 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post

     

    I don't disagree that analysts look at facts but for every analyst that recommends a "buy" there are as many that recommend a sell/hold. That tells me that one analyst happens to be right and one happens to be wrong. Maybe that's why the average engineer makes more than the average analyst?

     

    Or are you advising us to just listen to the analysts who earn millions and to ignore the others?

    Or should we just listen to the analysts that are right all the time? /s

     

    Hmmm...I don't hear you shouting support for the analyst that has a $745 target on aapl.

     

    edit: I don't think any of us disagree that analysts impact the market, but you seem to only be cherry-picking reasons why we should be accepting this analysts analysis.


    I was not quoting analyst comment.

    I was just trying to explain general misunderstanding, why companies like Amazon with zero profit has such high valuations vs Apple with such high earnings has low valuations.

  • Reply 45 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    FACT: Google makes $20 profit per share

    FACT: Apple makes $40 profit per share

    FACT: there stock price are both in the $530 area

    FACT: Google grew profits 1% last quarter

    FACT: Apple grew profits 5% last quarter

     

    So tell me Mr Facts:

     

    How the HELL will Google DOUBLE their PROFITS when they only grew them 1% last quarter?

    Tell me how they can justify their $530 stock price when Apple makes DOUBLE the profits at the same stock price?


    Go back and read my first article again and again and again. PEG ratio, PEG ratio, PEG ratio.......

    Valuations are based on PEG ratio and not earnings.

    Where is growth for Apple in last 1.5 years?

    If you still can't get it, you don't deserve anymore replies. Bye.

  • Reply 46 of 67
    tkell31tkell31 Posts: 216member

    I own Apple stock, but I'm amazed at the stupidity of the people on here talking about 5% earnings growth.  Net revenue was flat YoY, but the number of shares outstanding decreased and that is where ALL the EPS "growth" came from.  In other words there was no growth, zero, zilch, nada when it comes to net revenue and in fact there was net revenue decrease last year.

     

    Sure they can keep buying stock back which will increase the EPS assuming they can maintain current net revenue, but don't confuse that with growth.

     

    As for releasing new products.  Well they haven't done that in over four years so lets not rush them.  Granted they are only the biggest company by market cap on the planet (or are they second now?) so it's probably expecting too much to come up with another product line.

  • Reply 47 of 67
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post

    Go back and read my first article again and again and again. PEG ratio, PEG ratio, PEG ratio.......

     

    Is “PEG ratio” the new IGZO? 

     

    If you still can't get it, you don't deserve anymore replies. Bye. 


     

    Ah, “I’m leaving, therefore I’m right,” how I’ve not missed you at all.

  • Reply 48 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     

     

    Is “PEG ratio” the new IGZO? 

     

    Ah, “I’m leaving, therefore I’m right,” how I’ve not missed you at all.


    Here comes Mr. Always Right :) Wikipedia is your help.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEG_ratio

    "PEG is a widely employed indicator of a stock's possible true value."

    btw, I am also investor of Apple stock, but not sentimentally connected to Apple stock, I am there for investment point of view :)

  • Reply 49 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    So wikipedia is your go to for investment advice? wow.


    Its advice for people who are connected to Apple sentimentally :)

    Do you have technical reason why Apple has such low valuations and Amazon has such a high valuations?

    Why did Analyst loved Apple 1.5 years ago (When it hit $700) and now suddenly that don't like Apple.

    Believe me, there is no love/hate from Analysts, it's plain fact that they are not seeing new stream of revenue which tells that existing market is saturated and that's why stock has suffered.

    Why Analysts love Amazon even with years of no earnings?

    Don't tell me bs like they hate apple and love Amazon etc etc.

     

    All these are multi-billion dollar companies, not easily manipulated by couple of analysts comments. Also there is no agenda of 20 analyst working together to bring Apple stock down, unlike few crazy people like to think.

  • Reply 50 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Why are bringing up the 31% growth from 2012 to 2013 quarter? Thats TWO YEARS AGO.  The most recent growth was 18% on revenue and 1% on earnings.

     

    And a big chunk of that 18% increase in revenue was from Motorolla and 'Other Income' (over $1.5B in other income).

     

    The bottom line is THE BOTTOM LINE.  Go ahead and think Revenue is the end all.  It isn't.  Its all about PROFITS.  Anyone can increase revenue by dropping prices or selling things below cost (see Amazon).


    I did said earlier, they don't count Motorola revenue/earnings as their operating segment.

    It is not counted in their revenue. 

  • Reply 51 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Calling other people stupid and then spewing out false information is beyond stupid.

     

    Net Revenue was up 6% last quarter from $54.5B to $57.6B

     

    Learn the difference between Net Revenue vs Profits before you start calling other people idiots.

     

    You are also forgetting to take into account what has caused gross margins to go down:

     

    1) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for operating system updates

    2) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for free software

    3) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for warranty repairs

    4) Currency flucations

     

    Those three items alone account for over a BILLION in net income.  But you would have known this already if you listened to the conference call.  The accruals are extremely conservative and if they were not increased earnings would be up 5-10% last quarter.  But Apple is being safe and does not want to mislead investors (unlike Google who releases non-GAAP financials in which they don't count stock compensation and losses from Motorola)


    I am guessing you already know the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP.

    Layoffs, Sale of divisions (For Motorola) etc are called not repeatable expenses. (Motorola is sold to Lenovo), so their revenue/earnings/loss don't reflect true earnings for Google.

    Just because Google is taking too many risks with multiple companies with high hit/fail rate, they have higher one time expenses.

    They are looking for next big thing and don't want themselves limited to Search. (And that's why there is Android or Nest or Motorola or Drones etc etc)

    These are two different investment strategies from two different companies. 

  • Reply 52 of 67
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pmz View Post



    Its not shaping up to be a blockbuster year for Apple at all. I may be a big fan and often apologist, but I do not make excuses for no new products since Oct 2013.



    Furthermore, its not possible for Apple to release everything that people are predicting this year. Not only do they never release the full boat of rumored products that arise during the year, but the amount on the table this year is insane: iWatch, AppleTV, iOS 8, OS 10.10, 4.7" iPhone, updated iPads, Retina MacBook Air, overdue Mac mini, iMac spec bump....



    Its not all happening before the end of this year, and as much as I wish it would.

     

    Would you rather have a bunch of half-developed junk coming out now or would you rather wait until Apple is ready to release something really cool?

  • Reply 53 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    So why is revenue up 18% but earnings only up 1%?


    Look it up yourself. You are smart enough to find from their earnings report :)

  • Reply 54 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Why are bringing up the 31% growth from 2012 to 2013 quarter? Thats TWO YEARS AGO.  The most recent growth was 18% on revenue and 1% on earnings.

     

    And a big chunk of that 18% increase in revenue was from Motorolla and 'Other Income' (over $1.5B in other income).

     

    The bottom line is THE BOTTOM LINE.  Go ahead and think Revenue is the end all.  It isn't.  Its all about PROFITS.  Anyone can increase revenue by dropping prices or selling things below cost (see Amazon).


    That was not two years ago, that was 1 year ago. It was for Jan-March of 2013. 

    That is the time-frame where Apple revenue got stalled  to steady pace and stock price got stalled as well. (About last 1.5 years)

  • Reply 55 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    non-repeatable?  Google has been losing billions every year from discountinued operations and stock compensation.

     

    How on earth is that not part of the cost of running a business?  Flat out they are trying to deceive investors.


    That's what person attached to one stock or other stock thinks. Not the Analysts. 

    Amazon can stop investing millions or billions in their own growth and then they will see earnings (Since no loss from creating/setting up new business), but not re-investing means you are compromising with growth.

    That's Where, Google/Facebook/Amazon doesn't wants to go.

     

    You know that even if you want to start your own business, you are not going to make money from day one correct? You have to invest and take losses before you start realizing any profits.

    It's simple business metrics.

  • Reply 56 of 67
    drewys808drewys808 Posts: 549member

    Originally Posted by shahhet2 View Post

     

    They are looking for next big thing and don't want themselves limited to Search. (And that's why there is Android or Nest or Motorola or Drones etc etc)


    I must disagree...or at least let's clarify.

    History has shown that google is not primarily interested in innovation and development of the next big thing, instead, they are interested in disruption of the next big thing...for the sake of ad/search.

     

    That's why they have flung whatever technologies against the wall just to see what sticks. What do you think Android was for?.. it was for ad/search. Same for Motorola. Time will tell re: Nest/Glasses/drones.

     

    google is scared crapless knowing that it could lose big in ad/search in the mobile space...but at least its forward P/E isn't stratospheric, like AMZN.  Sure, Amazon can monetize with its near monopoly, but can only raise retail prices so much to remain competitive.

     

    Apple, OTOH, can monetize on ads, software, accessories, media, etc. (not to mention hardware) but it balances making more money with strengthening its incredible brand/reputation. So which company has the highest probability of increasing profits in the near term and the long term...I'd say Apple, hands down.

     

    I'm not ignoring the fact that Apple has challenges with maintaining margins and growing units sold. Should be an interesting year.

  • Reply 57 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    lol.  And all the warehouses by Amazon will all of a sudden be FREE?  No cost to maintain or repair? Property taxes?  Insurance?

     

    But I was talking about Google and how they don't count stock compensation as part of their non-GAAP earnings.  Thats total BS.  Stock compensation will continue until they go bankrupt.  Stock comp is the definition of a re-occuring expense.


    So does Apple. Just because, you can't find doesn't mean there is no SBC for other companies.

    You just have to look little dipper.

    http://investor.apple.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-14-24487&CIK=320193

    Apple reported SBC of $681 million last reported quarter, just like any other company and it is reproted same as Google.

     

    Besides, What does this has anything to do with Revenue growth? My original point was still the revenue growth.

  • Reply 58 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Jan2013 is ancient history.  Those results have nothing to do with the current stock price.


    Look how  things are changing. Initially you replied 2 years ago comparison, and now Last March report (1 year ago) is ancient history!!! :)

    It has everything to do with why Apple stock has not risen in last 1.5 years or Google Stock has gone up in 1.5 years.

  • Reply 59 of 67
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by drewys808 View Post

     

    I must disagree...or at least let's clarify.

    History has shown that google is not primarily interested in innovation and development of the next big thing, instead, they are interested in disruption of the next big thing...for the sake of ad/search.

     

    That's why they have flung whatever technologies against the wall just to see what sticks. What do you think Android was for?.. it was for ad/search. Same for Motorola. Time will tell re: Nest/Glasses/drones.

     

    google is scared crapless knowing that it could lose big in ad/search in the mobile space...but at least its forward P/E isn't stratospheric, like AMZN.  Sure, Amazon can monetize with its near monopoly, but can only raise retail prices so much to remain competitive.

     

    Apple, OTOH, can monetize on ads, software, accessories, media, etc. (not to mention hardware) but it balances making more money with strengthening its incredible brand/reputation. So which company has the highest probability of increasing profits in the near term and the long term...I'd say Apple, hands down.

     

    I'm not ignoring the fact that Apple has challenges with maintaining margins and growing units sold. Should be an interesting year.


    Yes Android was to get Mobile ad revenue, since they knew Mobile was next big thing. (To grow revenue and ultimately profit)

    Motorola was just for defensive patent protection and nothing else.

     

    Apple is already master of HW. They are trying to monetize ads, but still not much success yet. As I said, I want Apple to succeed from investor point of view. But they have to come up with something where they can show revenue growth, which is stalled from couple of years.

     

    If you check history of Apple stock from 2004-2014, You will not find consecutive two years without double digit revenue growth until last two years. That's why Apple has gone up from $50 in 2004 to $700 in 2012. They need to come up with something to resume that growth.

  • Reply 60 of 67
    tkell31tkell31 Posts: 216member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Calling other people stupid and then spewing out false information is beyond stupid.

     

    Net Revenue was up 6% last quarter from $54.5B to $57.6B

     

    Learn the difference between Net Revenue vs Profits before you start calling other people idiots.

     

    You are also forgetting to take into account what has caused gross margins to go down:

     

    1) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for operating system updates

    2) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for free software

    3) Deferred Revenue accrual has increased for warranty repairs

    4) Currency flucations

     

    Those three items alone account for over a BILLION in net income.  But you would have known this already if you listened to the conference call.  The accruals are extremely conservative and if they were not increased earnings would be up 5-10% last quarter.  But Apple is being safe and does not want to mislead investors (unlike Google who releases non-GAAP financials in which they don't count stock compensation and losses from Motorolla)


    Do you even know what net revenue is?  You just cited gross revenue so my guess is you do not.  Thanks for proving my point.

Sign In or Register to comment.