One-third of US smartphone consumers plan to buy an iPhone in the next 3 months

Posted:
in iPhone edited May 2014
Apple's current iPhone lineup is showing strong staying power, with more than a third of prospective U.S. smartphone customers saying they plan to buy either an iPhone 5s or an iPhone 5c in the next three months, despite the fact that new models are expected to launch around September.

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Investment firm Piper Jaffray surveyed 1,016 U.S. consumers about their smartphone purchase intent over the next three months, and found that 29 percent of those polled plan to buy an iPhone 5s, while 5 percent said they will opt for the 5c. With a total of 34 percent planning to buy one of those two models, the survey did not include purchase intent for Apple's legacy iPhone 4S, which is available free on-contract at most carriers.

Apple's share of purchase intent as tracked by Piper Jaffray has steadily declined from a peak of 50 percent of U.S. smartphones following the launch of the iPhone 5s. While this trend is expected as customers wait to see what Apple's next iPhone might be, analyst Gene Munster said the figures show that the current iPhone lineup is staying strong longer in its lifespan than previous models.


Source: Piper Jaffray.


"While our survey is U.S. focused, we believe the data suggests that the iPhone, particularly the highest-end 5s model, continues to have staying power given about a third of U.S. smartphone customers expect to purchase an iPhone in the next three months," Munster said.

Apple reported strong iPhone sales in the March quarter, surprising market watchers who expected more of a post-launch decline. Apple's performance was benefitted largely from international iPhone sales, reaching a record 43.7 million total units shipped worldwide.

Munster has forecast for Apple to sell 35 million iPhones in the current June quarter, which would represent a 12 percent year over year increase.

He also expects iPhone demand will move back toward the 50 percent mark in the U.S. after Apple unveils its next iPhone models, which are expected to feature larger displays in two sizes of 4.7 and 5.5 inches.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 14
    irelandireland Posts: 17,771member

    They've bad timing.

  • Reply 2 of 14
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    No reason to start trusting Munster and his polling methods or assumptions.
  • Reply 3 of 14
    Looks like Apple threw some money their way this time.
  • Reply 4 of 14
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,001member
    Headline is misleading.
  • Reply 5 of 14
    red oakred oak Posts: 907member
    Please stop it with the misleading headlines
  • Reply 6 of 14
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by LordJohnWhorfin View Post



    Looks like Apple threw some money their way this time.

    hardly. 

     

    This is typical of the analysts etc. They play this game that a poll will make them look more authoritative. Which it does, until you look at the numbers. 

     

    "Investment firm Piper Jaffray surveyed 1,016 U.S. consumers about their smartphone purchase intent over the next three months, and found that 29 percent of those polled"

     

    ?Thats the same number of folks that buy an iPhone on launch weekend at a mid level non flagship store. With something like 300 such stores, plus online, plus Best Buy etc, one has to seriously question the validity of that sample size. Not to mention how they got it. Typically Piper Jaffray has someone stand outside 3-4 stores and just ask whoever walks by. Since malls and stores tend to have a distinct socioeconomic fingerprint the sample is likely biased

  • Reply 7 of 14
    The phrase "the fact that" bugs the heck out of me. It is unnecessary. It could easily be replaced with just the word "that".
  • Reply 8 of 14
    constable odoconstable odo Posts: 1,041member

    I wouldn't put any faith in Munster's sales predictions about Apple.  After hearing his negative opinion about the Beats Electronics deal, I've decided he's likely clueless concerning anything about Apple.  We really do not need the analysts and their polls.  Apple will sell what they can sell and that's it.  I'm going to follow Apple's guidance and that's good enough for me.  In the end the only thing that matters is when Apple makes it quarterly financial call and the actual numbers are laid bare.  Guessing sales numbers is a waste of time.

  • Reply 9 of 14
    airnerdairnerd Posts: 693member
    My 4s is struggling, but I'm gonna keep babying it along until the new iphone comes out. I have zero interest in the 5s or 5c. Even if the 6 doesn't have a game changer, 3 years is long enough for the current phone.
  • Reply 10 of 14
    lawrancelawrance Posts: 86member
    Well I'd speculate the poll did not clarify the iPhone 6 vs the iPhone 5s or 5c. - I would also guess they did not clarify that the iPhone 6 was 4 months away!
  • Reply 11 of 14
    charlituna wrote: »
    hardly. 

    This is typical of the analysts etc. They play this game that a poll will make them look more authoritative. Which it does, until you look at the numbers. 

    "Investment firm Piper Jaffray surveyed 1,016 U.S. consumers about their smartphone purchase intent over the next three months, and found that 29 percent of those polled"

    ?Thats the same number of folks that buy an iPhone on launch weekend at a mid level non flagship store. With something like 300 such stores, plus online, plus Best Buy etc, one has to seriously question the validity of that sample size. Not to mention how they got it. Typically Piper Jaffray has someone stand outside 3-4 stores and just ask whoever walks by. Since malls and stores tend to have a distinct socioeconomic fingerprint the sample is likely biased

    Do you know anything about a sample size. Its when you take a small cross section of a population and ask them a question. These answers generally with a low margin of error give you an approximate estimate of a populations opinion. 1000 is a good size sample to represent the United States.
  • Reply 12 of 14
    arlorarlor Posts: 528member

    Yeah, the headline and the first sentence are a bit far removed from one another. Will 1/3 of *prospective* smartphone customers buy an iPhone (first sentence) or 1/3 of *all* smartphone consumers buy one (title)? If the title's right, it's going to be a record-breaking quarter for Apple, even though they're not releasing a new phone! If the first sentence is right, it would be interesting to know how many prospective customers there are.

     

    Those complaining about the small sample size should take a stats class. There could be all kinds of problems with the poll, but the sample size isn't one of them (provided they note the margin of error). (It's not clear from the AI article whether the sample is everybody they called or just those who plan to buy a phone in the next 3 months -- the margin of error could be pretty wide if it's the latter.)

  • Reply 13 of 14
    raptoroo7raptoroo7 Posts: 138member
    I just picked up an iphone 5S 64GB for the simple reason I want lots of storage, BUT, I don't see me picking up a new phone in the fall even with the screen bump unless Apple addresses the poor battery life their phones have. Say what you want about Android but there are key factors, swappable batteries (in most phones) and BIGGER BATTERIES in their phones. I mean the 5S has what 1570mAh which is up from 1440mAh on the iphone 5. The issue is Apples desire to be thin thin thin like a super model but you need space to pack a real battery. So what will likely happen is my wife gets my iphone 5s when the Note 4 comes along or something else with a real battery.

    Now if apple puts a 2800mAh battery in the next phone which it will need to even compete on battery life then I would reconsider.
  • Reply 14 of 14
    aegeanaegean Posts: 156member

    I just returned 5S for the sake of 6. Will wait.

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