Apple likely to ship only 3 million 'iWatch' units this year, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited August 2014
Market expectations for Apple's anticipated "iWatch" may be grossly overestimated, as well-connected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said on Thursday that he expects that only 3 million wrist-worn smart devices from Apple will make it to store shelves by the end of this year.

iWatchiWatch concept by Todd Hamilton


In a note to investors, a copy of which was obtained by AppleInsider, Kuo of KGI Securities said he believes the market is expecting that Apple will ship between 5 million and 10 million "iWatch" units before the end of 2014. But he now expects that issues will push production of the device will be pushed back from September to the second half of November, resulting in fewer units available.

This anticipated shorter period of production has prompted Kuo to decrease his projected build plans from 5 million units this year to just 3 million units.

In addition, Kuo also anticipates that Apple may face sapphire cover lens production bottlenecks. As a result, he predicts that at least half of finished "iWatch" products will ship with glass covers instead of sapphire.

Kuo said that his checks within Apple's supply chain suggest that TPK will supply the touch module for the "iWatch," while the lamination services of the touch module and accompanying AMOLED display will be handled by LG Display.

Thursday's note is just the latest in a series of reports that have claimed that the "iWatch" has hit a number of issues in its development as Apple races to bring the product to market. A number of rumors have pegged manufacturing of the device to begin in the fourth quarter, which would be very late for a product expected to launch in time for the holiday shopping season.

Kuo himself had already reported earlier this month that wide distribution of the "iWatch" won't happen until December, and cautioned that availability will likely be well below market expectations. He reiterated that stance again Thursday, emphasizing that "excess market optimism" could have a negative affect on shares of the company.

Part of the issues are said to stem from the fact that Apple is deviating from its normal component cache to more advanced -- and difficult to manufacture -- parts and materials.

For example, the iWatch is thought to sport a flexible AMOLED display complete with sapphire cover glass. Apple has never deployed an OLED display in a consumer product, nor has the company fielded a product with such a large sapphire glass installation. So far, the largest sapphire part in any iOS device has been the protective Touch ID covering seen on the iPhone 5s.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 71
    negafoxnegafox Posts: 480member

    Sweet! I want to be an analyst. Let me give it a shot: I predict zero iPhone 7's will be sold this year because there were production problems and its release was delayed until fall of 2015 or 2016.

  • Reply 2 of 71
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Apologies for the language but how the f*ck does this qualify as "breaking" anything?!? :rolleyes:
  • Reply 3 of 71
    palominepalomine Posts: 362member
    Yeah he predicts a lot of junk. Shameless stock manipulation .
  • Reply 4 of 71
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    palomine wrote: »
    Yeah he predicts a lot of junk. Shameless stock manipulation .
    And yet AI throws this up on their website under the red "breaking" banner.
  • Reply 5 of 71
    freshmakerfreshmaker Posts: 532member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    And yet AI throws this up on their website under the red "breaking" banner.

    Boggles the mind, doesn't it?  Unsubstantiated rumors on an unannounced product push back a made-up launch date and reduce a wild-guess number of sales.  Oy.

  • Reply 6 of 71
    adonissmuadonissmu Posts: 1,774member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Freshmaker View Post

     

    Boggles the mind, doesn't it?  Unsubstantiated rumors on an unannounced product push back a made-up launch date and reduce a wild-guess number of sales.  Oy.


    Marketing. 

  • Reply 7 of 71
    As a note to investors, who takes this guy seriously, seriously. Glass instead of Sapphire really? you think they would make two versions or ship something that is half done.
  • Reply 8 of 71
    starbird73starbird73 Posts: 538member
    negafox wrote: »
    Sweet! I want to be an analyst. Let me give it a shot: I predict zero iPhone 7's will be sold this year because there were production problems and its release was delayed until fall of 2015 or 2016.

    Aww, Man! I was holding out. Boo!

    rogifan wrote: »
    Apologies for the language but how the f*ck does this qualify as "breaking" anything?!? :rolleyes:

    And an alert on the iPhone app. Amazing! Apple may only sell a few million of an item they've yet to announce!
  • Reply 9 of 71
    kent909kent909 Posts: 730member

    This should be quite the accomplishment, since there never will be an iWatch.

  • Reply 10 of 71
    addicted44addicted44 Posts: 826member

    These analysts cannot get shipment and release numbers AFTER the quarter has passed, and now they expect us to buy their numbers from before the product has even been announced?

  • Reply 11 of 71
    j1h15233j1h15233 Posts: 274member

    Why is it breaking news that Apple might ship a number of a rumored product?

  • Reply 12 of 71
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    j1h15233 wrote: »
    Why is it breaking news that Apple might ship a number of a rumored product?
    AI involved in stock manipulation?
  • Reply 13 of 71
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,408member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    And yet AI throws this up on their website under the red "breaking" banner.

     

    Breaking wind, perhaps.

     

    I think it would be awesome if either Apple sued these analysts for slander/libel or if the SEC were to investigate these mouthpieces for blatant stock manipulation or misrepresentation of facts.

     

    Although there was this in 2010:  http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/115027/apple-analysts-under-sec-investigation-for-channel-checks

  • Reply 14 of 71
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Breaking wind, perhaps.

    I think it would be awesome if either Apple sued these analysts for slander/libel or if the SEC were to look into these mouthpieces.
    So AI wants us to believe Apple will ship some "iWatches" with glass and some with sapphire and I guess it's just consumers luck of the draw whether they get sapphire or not? I mean seriously?!?
  • Reply 15 of 71
    rs9rs9 Posts: 68member
    Shouldn't it be...."well-Disconnected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo....."
  • Reply 16 of 71
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,408member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    AI involved in stock manipulation?

     

    The whole stock market hit the skids today, so I don't think AI has that much influence. ; )

  • Reply 17 of 71
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,408member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    So AI wants us to believe Apple will ship some "iWatches" with glass and some with sapphire and I guess it's just consumers luck of the draw whether they get sapphire or not? I mean seriously?!?

     

    But they'll only ship THREE MILLION of a fictitious product! How many fictitious products did Samsung ship? Clearly Apple is falling behind!  /s

  • Reply 18 of 71
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Breaking wind, perhaps.

    I think it would be awesome if either Apple sued these analysts for slander/libel or if the SEC were to investigate these mouthpieces for blatant stock manipulation or misrepresentation of facts.

    Although there was this in 2010:  http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/115027/apple-analysts-under-sec-investigation-for-channel-checks
    It would be nice if rumor sites didn't publish this stuff which just pushes it out there even more. You know sites like Business Insider are constantly checking Apple rumor sites for D&G and FUD they can publish.
  • Reply 19 of 71
    Stop the presses!
  • Reply 20 of 71
    Quote:


     a copy of which was obtained by AppleInsider,...


     

    Kuo sent it to your gmail account?

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