U.S. stock volatility blamed on Apple bears in options market

2

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 44

    In a perverted way this makes sense.  The largest market capped companies, typically are products that are either a monopoly (ATT, MS/Intel, IBM, NTT, utilities), conglomerates, or consumer/industry essentials (oil, big box generic retail [walmart]),  addictions {Coke, Pharma], and less so, 'have all your money' Banks/Financials (CitiGroup, JPMorgan).

     

    Each of those basically have very little short term risk.

     

    Apple is neither a monopoly , or a consumer essential, and really only had 4 products all really in one sector [consumer electronics - a computer, a phone, a tablet, and music player - AppStore/ITMS/ApplePay/iCloud,  even AppleWatch would die on the vine without the other 4], so it's not a conglomerate.  It's really not an addiction [fanbois excepted], and it isn't a bank [yet.;=)].

     

    A bad chip,  a true '-gate' event, a massive security breach, or the inability to develop a 4th product to replace first the iPod, then the Mac (yes, the Mac will die, probably in 10 years... Computing will be all cloud and/or mobile and/or 'built-in' (hence why AppleTV may be a bigger thing... it may be your home computer some day)...  Or less likely, Samsung, or Google will come up with a killer product that will make the iPhone look like the crater that BlackBerry made [100X larger of course] well before people expected it to die.   That are truly huge risks.

     

    It's also a huge dividend (2% is pretty big in a 0% inflation world) for a 'tech stock with startup/growth tendencies'. 

     

    The Market isn't comfortable with this and has no protections in place for this sort of thing, especially in the major indices.   That's one of the major reason why it's not in the Dow Jones... It's not really an 'industrial' bellwether, because it's so narrow focused, and so much dependent on consumer 'desire' (vs need).  That and the fact it would come in on 'top' (most come in in the middle, knocking out a bottom 'dog,' that isn't tracking the market anymore)

     

    This shorting, is usually done by corps that have major stakes in Apple.  They will lose a little money if it goes up, but lose less if it goes down.  

    True speculators, those spinning gloom and doom, are minor players, or those who are financially strapped and are gambling for survival. 

     

               "It's All in the Game, Yo!" - Omar Little

  • Reply 22 of 44
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by amoradala View Post



    Why is there no incentive for these traders to drive the stock UP to make money ?

    Someone explain, what is the benefit for traders to keep a stock steady ?

     

    A stockbroker typically makes money on both the selling or buying of a stock....that's why one has to be aware of the "churn rate" of a "managed" portfolio. The transaction itself almost always creates profit for someone.  8-)

  • Reply 23 of 44
    "The Bears Family" (Papa Bear, Mama-Bear and Baby-Bears, strictly in that order) tries to steal our honey-pots.
  • Reply 24 of 44
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,557member

    I’m impressed that Apple has become so large, so dominant, that the entire stock market swoons or sways to Apple’s heartbeat. That’s one hell of a big company.

  • Reply 25 of 44
    calicali Posts: 3,494member
    "Apple may have an opportunity to turn things around soon,"

    C'mon Apple! If you don't get it right soon you'll be out of business next year!
  • Reply 26 of 44
    cali wrote: »
    "Apple may have an opportunity to turn things around soon,"

    C'mon Apple! If you don't get it right soon you'll be out of business next year!

    "/s"?
  • Reply 27 of 44
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

    "/s"?

     

    I’m sure it is, given the context.

  • Reply 28 of 44
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member

    Everything in tech is a risk.  Everything.  Swim with the fast fishes.

     

    AAPL is subject to great mood swings lol.

     

    Just as one bendgate or one bad iOS update can trigger a decline in the stock, BUT, so, too, one piece of great news or great promise can cause AAPL to soar.

     

    I think those shorting the stock are about to get caught with their hands in the cookie jar.  

     

    4 Million advance activations from China?  

     

    Even Youtube videos posted by teenagers of phones bending in Apple Stores can't compete with that.

     

    We will all smell barbecue bear shortly is my personal prediction.

  • Reply 29 of 44
    mj webmj web Posts: 918member
    TG I'm an investor, not a trader. Holding AAPL through all the ups and downs since 2007, when Apple adopted Intel and intro'd Boot Camp. Reckon I'm up around 700% and I expect AAPL to hit $125 within a quarter or two.
  • Reply 30 of 44
    sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,789member

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

    Apple may have an opportunity to turn things around soon, with the company expected to be planning another media event this month to unveil new iPad models with Touch ID fingerprint sensors, as well as a 27-inch iMac with 5K Retina display.

     

    And, of course, there will be an earnings call a few days after the "iPad event."

    There should be minor sell-offs and recoveries just before, during, then after the call.

    (Possibly because of major shareholders like Deutchebank trying to manipulate the price.)

    But if the news is good, the stock usually creeps upward gradually after each call.

    Seems to happen like that every quarter.

     

    AAPL investor rule #1: Buy on rumor, sell on news.

  • Reply 31 of 44
    APPL investors have proven easy to spook, and magnifying Apple "problems" is easy to do and spread virally. Hence, extreme volatility in the stock.
  • Reply 32 of 44
    jasenj1jasenj1 Posts: 923member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pmz View Post

     

    I often wonder how many times we'll go through this cycle before people realize its not the current administration...its every administration, because not a damn one of them is a genuine entity with benevolence in mind.




    It's all FDR's fault!

     

    ---

    As a long time AAPL share holder (over 20 years for some of my shares), it still boggles my mind that they are so big. I just bought & own the shares because I think they make quality products, and have figured out how to make a profit selling those products. I still think of them as the scrappy Macintosh maker in a world of PC clones, a niche player in a world dominated by beige boxes.

  • Reply 33 of 44

    The best I can take comfort in owning Apple is the generous dividends I'm getting every quarter.  I truly believe Tim Cook is doing the best he can to make Apple a valuable company for shareholders.  They've done nearly everything asked of them by shareholders and they're selling plenty of products and have introduced new ones.  It just seems as though Wall Street either has no faith in the company or the manipulation of Apple stock is far too beneficial for them to allow the stock to rise higher.  I really have to scratch my head when I see Apple stock trade in such a narrow range like someone is just holding it there no matter how many upgrades or how many products get sold or any other good news.  One bad news article can seem to outweigh a half-dozen favorable ones.  Why other stocks can climb and fall naturally while Apple gets pinned seems so obvious but maybe because of its sheer size it just acts that way.

     

    I'm not going to really concern myself with how Wall Street controls Apple's share price movement.  I know that as long as Apple is making decent revenue and profits, the company should be relatively safe as an investment and I'll likely see dividend increases.  If Apple's share price isn't allowed to rise even with strong revenue and profits then there's nothing I can do about it.  No point in crying over things one can't change.  The market is up huge today and when I checked Apple was up a penny.  All the other tech stocks has major share gains.  Apple, nada.  Apple is being pinned to around $100 for days at a time and not straying much either way.  Rather quite amazing.

  • Reply 34 of 44
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,851member

    You‘ll notice that’s not what he said.


    So the fed setting interest rates, that… doesn’t count?

    I thought we were discussing a single stock not the market.
  • Reply 35 of 44
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

    I thought we were discussing a single stock…



    Oh, if that’s what you meant I agree entirely. Speculation on Apple stock did diddly to the market.

  • Reply 36 of 44
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,851member

    Oh, if that’s what you meant I agree entirely. Speculation on Apple stock did diddly to the market.


    I did and you're forgiven ;)
  • Reply 37 of 44
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

     

    In a perverted way this makes sense.  The largest market capped companies, typically are products that are either a monopoly (ATT, MS/Intel, IBM, NTT, utilities), conglomerates, or consumer/industry essentials (oil, big box generic retail [walmart]),  addictions {Coke, Pharma], and less so, 'have all your money' Banks/Financials (CitiGroup, JPMorgan).

     

    Each of those basically have very little short term risk.

     

    Apple is neither a monopoly , or a consumer essential, and really only had 4 products all really in one sector [consumer electronics - a computer, a phone, a tablet, and music player - AppStore/ITMS/ApplePay/iCloud,  even AppleWatch would die on the vine without the other 4], so it's not a conglomerate.  It's really not an addiction [fanbois excepted], and it isn't a bank [yet.;=)].

     

    A bad chip,  a true '-gate' event, a massive security breach, or the inability to develop a 4th product to replace first the iPod, then the Mac (yes, the Mac will die, probably in 10 years... Computing will be all cloud and/or mobile and/or 'built-in' (hence why AppleTV may be a bigger thing... it may be your home computer some day)...  Or less likely, Samsung, or Google will come up with a killer product that will make the iPhone look like the crater that BlackBerry made [100X larger of course] well before people expected it to die.   That are truly huge risks.

     

    It's also a huge dividend (2% is pretty big in a 0% inflation world) for a 'tech stock with startup/growth tendencies'. 

     

    The Market isn't comfortable with this and has no protections in place for this sort of thing, especially in the major indices.   That's one of the major reason why it's not in the Dow Jones... It's not really an 'industrial' bellwether, because it's so narrow focused, and so much dependent on consumer 'desire' (vs need).  That and the fact it would come in on 'top' (most come in in the middle, knocking out a bottom 'dog,' that isn't tracking the market anymore)

     

    This shorting, is usually done by corps that have major stakes in Apple.  They will lose a little money if it goes up, but lose less if it goes down.  

    True speculators, those spinning gloom and doom, are minor players, or those who are financially strapped and are gambling for survival. 

     

               "It's All in the Game, Yo!" - Omar Little


     

    So, what's their excuse for the stock prices of companies like Facebook or even crazier, Amazon. Amazon with its razor thin margins and less and less market differentiation makes so little sense in the current market it is not even funny? What will Alibaba do to it? My mother, who is 67 bought stuff on Alibaba!!

     

    The stock market valuations are totally incoherent and make only sense to a psychologist looking at mass psychosis, not to anyone else.

  • Reply 38 of 44
    kent909kent909 Posts: 731member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

     



    only if she likes it that why


    Not funny or appropriate

  • Reply 39 of 44
    heliahelia Posts: 170member

    I've heard Ebola virus came to US misusing an exploit on IOS 8, let's splash the stock price to $60

  • Reply 40 of 44
    paul94544paul94544 Posts: 1,027member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

     

    Everything in tech is a risk.  Everything.  Swim with the fast fishes.

     

    AAPL is subject to great mood swings lol.

     

    Just as one bendgate or one bad iOS update can trigger a decline in the stock, BUT, so, too, one piece of great news or great promise can cause AAPL to soar.

     

    I think those shorting the stock are about to get caught with their hands in the cookie jar.  

     

    4 Million advance activations from China?  

     

    Even Youtube videos posted by teenagers of phones bending in Apple Stores can't compete with that.

     

    We will all smell barbecue bear shortly is my personal prediction.




    if you ask me APPL stock has "actually" not been very volatile the last few months . it has rolled between 98 and 103 recently. +/- 3%  not really much , the overall market is more volatile .  The Value line BETA= 0.85 which indicates low volatility and means that APPL is not a very lucrative stock to trade options in.

     

     I'm sorry folks, using facts is not entertaining enough for you,  I know using actual facts to backup my argument flies in the face of 99% of posters here but hey! that will never stop a good TROLL now will it?

     

    FYI Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility in relation to the market. By definition, the market has a beta of 1.0, and individual stocks are ranked according to how much they deviate from the market. A stock that swings more than the market over time has a beta above 1.0.

Sign In or Register to comment.