Apple says its 'ambitious' sapphire manufacturing process is 'not ready for production'

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  • Reply 41 of 69
    mpantonempantone Posts: 2,507member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

    I'd argue that Apple'S expertise is not software, but systems integration and design; they're bringing systems to the masses. They prefer letting others build the blocks they assemble to their specs and then insure they mesh well together. The only big holdout is Software, maybe because software is the framework for this integration and thus they can't really outsource that block.

     

    There are no company really doing something similar in the consumer space.


    Apple's system integration is better because they are writing the software. That's why Steve called Apple a software company at heart.

     

    Which would you prefer: A.) Microsoft Windows running on Apple hardware or B.) OS X running on Wintel hardware?

     

    Remember, your typical PC company is also doing systems integration and design, but they aren't writing the software. They have outsourced  that to Microsoft (or to Google ChromeOS, Linux, etc.).

     

    The smartphone world is a bit different, although the big Asian players have outsourced the software (Android running on Samsung, HTC, etc. handsets). Samsung does have their own home-grown software in Tizen, and BlackBerry has their own software. Microsoft has purchased the Nokia handset division.

     

    Don't forget what an operating system is. It's a big complicated program that allows other big complicated programs to co-exist peacefully on the same system.

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  • Reply 42 of 69
    flaneur wrote: »
    Serious question, what is being said about the future of sapphire as a material, or what search terms might one try?

    That's the rub. You have a better chance of looking up the next iPad Air. All of that info is mostly proprietary. I will take solace in believing that Apple knows what they are doing.

    Also keep in mind that everyone is arguing secrecy in this matter is because it revolves around unreleased tech. Not because some idiot couldn't keep their end of the bargain.

    Edit: there's nothing stopping you from looking up Silicone and Saphire and doing your own research.
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  • Reply 43 of 69
    mpantonempantone Posts: 2,507member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by EMoeller View Post



    So someone tell me, "Who the heck is going to purchase 2,000 of these machines?"



    I think there are only a handful of these things in existence now. Apparently they didn't work, or at least GTAT couldn't get them to work for Apple. Apple would have been the logical purchaser of any machines, but that's not in cards now.

    Other sapphire and glass manufacturers.

     

    Remember that these furnaces can be used for other purposes, although their intent is to make sapphire. There are other companies to have been providing sapphire for decades (things like armored vehicle cockpit windows, wristwatch faces, etc.). Note that there are companies who make proprietary glass in a similar manner to sapphire.

     

    If I recall correctly, Seiko uses sapphire in certain watches, but uses their own proprietary glass for other watches; sapphire's cost is too prohibitive to use in the entire product line. Sapphire has a 9 rating on the Mohrs scale of mineral hardness, but Seiko makes proprietary glass with a 7 rating which is still quite hard, but considerably cheaper than sapphire to produce.

     

    GT Advanced was working on new sapphire manufacturing processes to improve yield, cut costs, and provide a better product than current solutions (like Corning's Gorilla Glass). They promised Apple that they would hit certain technical milestones and they failed, which is why Apple withheld the final loan installment.

     

    Likely, these furnaces can be used to produce sapphire (and other similar glass) using existing techniques and processes. Whether or not these furnaces were "good enough" to produce the sapphire in the manner that GT Advanced was hoping is unclear, but GT Advanced bought them as tools that would get them to hit their development and production milestones.

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  • Reply 44 of 69
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    That's the rub. You have a better chance of looking up the next iPad Air. All of that info is mostly proprietary. I will take solace in believing that Apple knows what they are doing.

    Also keep in mind that everyone is arguing secrecy in this matter is because it revolves around unreleased tech. Not because some idiot couldn't keep their end of the bargain.

    Well, since no one knows anything and speculation is free, then I'll come down on the side that says Apple had something very real, specific and big in mind, or they wouldn't have invested at this level.

    Then, trials showed that GTAT had underestimated their success rate, capital burn-through or both, but the statement from Apple indicates there is still expectation of eventual success. They will probably find a surrogate owner, maybe even a reformed GTAT, and keep the trials going.

    There's something they want out of that transparent aluminum. I'm thinking it's a new kind of display, but I wouldn't want to guess what. Like I said, speculation is free, but I don't want to accidentally be a spoiler, like you almost said.
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  • Reply 45 of 69
    mpantonempantone Posts: 2,507member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post



    Serious question, what is being said about the future of sapphire as a material, or what search terms might one try?

    I don't know why there would be much discussion of the matter. 

     

    Sapphire has a long history of being used in diverse applications (wristwatch crystals, armored vehicles, grocery store scanner windows). The problem is the difficulty of working with the material and cost. The standard response would be "we regularly review options for new components and materials", regardless of the industry.

     

    Improvements in manufacturing processes result in better products, more uses, and less cost. The original aluminum beer uses less aluminum over the years due to improved manufacturing processes. That results in less weight and less cost. The original pull tab is now a level attached to the can.

     

    Notoriously difficult materials like carbon fiber were only used in very simple shapes in the late Seventies: like rudder poles in expensive yachts. Over the years, the processes improved and the costs fell, which let the material be used in cheaper applications, like golf club shafts, and in more complex shapes, like tennis racket frames, etc.

     

    Improvements in manufacturing processes can bring new materials to a given object like tennis rackets going from wood to other materials: aluminum, fiberglass, carbon fiber, etc. or disc brakes from steel to aluminum to ceramic.

     

    Sometimes improvements in manufacturing processes result in better characteristics in the existing product, like thinner condoms. :D

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  • Reply 46 of 69
    So many sapphire manufacturing experts in this forum thread! If only GTAT hired you guys, they'd be in business.
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  • Reply 47 of 69
    You mean this one?
    flaneur wrote: »
    Well, since no one knows anything and speculation is free, then I'll come down on the side that says Apple had something very real, specific and big in mind, or they wouldn't have invested at this level.

    Then, trials showed that GTAT had underestimated their success rate, capital burn-through or both, but the statement from Apple indicates there is still expectation of eventual success. They will probably find a surrogate owner, maybe even a reformed GTAT, and keep the trials going.

    There's something they want out of that transparent aluminum. I'm thinking it's a new kind of display, but I wouldn't want to guess what. Like I said, speculation is free, but I don't want to accidentally be a spoiler, like you almost said.


    You mean this one?

    Aluminium oxynitride or AlON is a transparent polycrystalline ceramic with cubic spinel crystal structure composed of aluminium, oxygen and nitrogen. It is currently marketed under the name ALON by Surmet Corporation. Wikipedia
    Formula: (AlN)x·(Al2O3)1-x, 0.30 ? x ? 0.37
    Density: 3.70 g/cm³

    I was hoping we jumped transparent aluminum and went to Saphire. The next step is Diamond, which has been manufactured in labs for more than 15 years. Just as we learned how to treat metal alloys for the last 4000 years, we are currently just learning how to treat crystals. It's an exciting future.

    Sorry if you didn't know transparent Aluminum existed.. It was patented long ago. It's just way out of date. A case of holding onto the patent and not capitalizing on it I suspect, be Apple is moving us towards Saphire. Saphire chips should bring in the 8Ghz age.
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  • Reply 48 of 69
    So many sapphire manufacturing experts in this forum thread! If only GTAT hired you guys, they'd be in business.

    I'm guessing it may have helped, but I think they know what they are doing.

    Edit: No. I take that back. GTAT was definitely mismanaged.
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  • Reply 49 of 69
    So many sapphire manufacturing experts in this forum thread! If only GTAT hired you guys, they'd be in business.

    What is great is that I can be a materials "expert" and have absolutely no affiliation with any corporation that was ever mentioned on this site. Imagine that? :)
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  • Reply 50 of 69
    Yeah, sounds to me like process engineers were overly optimistic in scale-up or QC, and the exec's didn't have the experience or wisdom to see it.
    I think the opposite is probably true. The engineers probably said we can't do it, but the execs said we can do anything for $439 million. Not to mention the value added to the brand by being an iPhone component supplier...
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  • Reply 51 of 69
    I think the opposite is probably true. The engineers probably said we can't do it, but the execs said we can do anything for $439 million. Not to mention the value added to the brand by being an iPhone component supplier...

    I agree, but I think you are giving a lot of leeway to regular Apple employees. Steve himself said that they have weekly meetings, they discuss current tech and the state of the company, then the officers are left to get what they proposed done. done! I'm pretty sure there wasn't much of an abstract concept when you walked out of a room with him.

    Perhaps this was a breakdown, perhaps it was calculated "they are way biting off way more than they can chew, we can manage that plant better." We will only know later.

    Edit: If you really want to see what that plant can do, put Craig in charge. He may be funny, but I bet anyone would love to work for him. Moreover, usually you over perform for people you like. I'm quite sure I don't have to tell you how well you work for someone you don't like. MHO.
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  • Reply 52 of 69
    malax wrote: »
    But they didn't lose half a billion dollars.  Assuming this fire sale -- err, furnace sale pans out, they won't have lost any money except the interest they could have made on that half $B on another investment.  Not even close to talking about "real money" for Apple.  Assuming the sale pans out.
    That's radically optimistic. The gently-used furnace market is saturated with 2000 new furnaces for sale. That will depress prices. Apple announcing that it's process is not ready for production will discourage other companies from attempting what GTAT failed to do. That will also depress prices. Fire sales don't work. They are a way of hopefully not losing all of your ass. Apple will be lucky to recover half of this loan.
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  • Reply 53 of 69
    That's radically optimistic. The gently-used furnace market is saturated with 2000 new furnaces for sale. That will depress prices. Apple announcing that it's process is not ready for production will discourage other companies from attempting what GTAT failed to do. That will also depress prices. Fire sales don't work. They are a way of hopefully not losing all of your ass. Apple will be lucky to recover half of this loan.

    There isn't any depression. They get repurposed. They can be used in metal and glass manufacturing. They are not selling their patent on ionic "slicing". They are only selling the furnaces.

    Edit: after digesting your post. You do not know what this means. It was a management mishap. GTAT does still hold their patents. Furnaces can be used everywhere. Please look into what you are posting about.

    So what is it going to discourage against if you don't mind? Someone else doing Saphire on chip instead of Silicone on chip? Help me out?
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  • Reply 54 of 69
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mpantone View Post

     

    Apple's system integration is better because they are writing the software. That's why Steve called Apple a software company at heart.

     

    Which would you prefer: A.) Microsoft Windows running on Apple hardware or B.) OS X running on Wintel hardware?

     

    Remember, your typical PC company is also doing systems integration and design, but they aren't writing the software. They have outsourced  that to Microsoft (or to Google ChromeOS, Linux, etc.).

     

    The smartphone world is a bit different, although the big Asian players have outsourced the software (Android running on Samsung, HTC, etc. handsets). Samsung does have their own home-grown software in Tizen, and BlackBerry has their own software. Microsoft has purchased the Nokia handset division.

     

    Don't forget what an operating system is. It's a big complicated program that allows other big complicated programs to co-exist peacefully on the same system.


     

    I'm thinking system in the the largest sense. Integrating outside devices, other software, users, environment, society as a whole (often abreviated to ecosystem, but even that word doesn't really cover what Apples seeks to do). That's how you create ultimate value added. Something everyone cannot easily imitate. Tying everything together and managing the experience. Selling the experience. That's apple. They have to talk spec to placate the spec jockeys, but in the end, the specs are at the service of their overall systemic experience.

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  • Reply 55 of 69
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Silver Shadow View Post





    There isn't any depression. They get repurposed. They can be used in metal and glass manufacturing. They are not selling their patent on ionic "slicing". They are only selling the furnaces.



    Edit: after digesting your post. You do not know what this means. It was a management mishap. GTAT does still hold their patents. Furnaces can be used everywhere. Please look into what you are posting about.



    So what is it going to discourage against if you don't mind? Someone else doing Saphire on chip instead of Silicone on chip? Help me out?

     

    Apple's patent of joining Gorilla glass (or something similar) to Saphire would have to replicated to really want to recreate what Apple wanted to do. Don't think Apple is going to volounteer that to any other maker :-).

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  • Reply 56 of 69
    foggyhill wrote: »
    Apple's patent of joining Gorilla glass (or something similar) to Saphire would have to replicated to really want to recreate what Apple wanted to do. Don't think Apple is going to volounteer that to any other maker :-).

    In this case I'll follow the lead here on A.I. Apple patents many things that they never use and will never use in one of their products.
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  • Reply 57 of 69
    There isn't any depression. They get repurposed. They can be used in metal and glass manufacturing. They are not selling their patent on ionic "slicing". They are only selling the furnaces.

    Edit: after digesting your post. You do not know what this means. It was a management mishap. GTAT does still hold their patents. Furnaces can be used everywhere. Please look into what you are posting about.

    So what is it going to discourage against if you don't mind? Someone else doing Saphire on chip instead of Silicone on chip? Help me out?
    I'm talking about supply and demand. Greater supply creates a buyers' market with lower prices. There are now 2000 furnaces on the market that weren't there a week ago. Obviously they can be repurposed. But whatever the end use, is there a market out there that will allow GTAT to be able to actually sell these furnaces at a price high enough to repay Apple in full?

    I never said anything about patents--only furnaces. If you want to disagree with what I wrote, that's fine. If I can learn something from you, that's great. But don't add your own assumptions to what I wrote and then disagree with me.

    If an entrepreneur believed that this was mostly GTAT's failure to execute a sound process, that entrepreneur might consider trying to partner with Apple to deliver where GTAT failed. Now that Apple has said that it's process is not ready for production, that entrepreneur would certainly reconsider the risk. That this was a two-party failure would increase the risk to the entrepreneur and discourage speculation.
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  • Reply 58 of 69
    mpantonempantone Posts: 2,507member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

    I'm thinking system in the the largest sense. Integrating outside devices, other software, users, environment, society as a whole (often abreviated to ecosystem, but even that word doesn't really cover what Apples seeks to do). That's how you create ultimate value added. Something everyone cannot easily imitate. Tying everything together and managing the experience. Selling the experience. That's apple. They have to talk spec to placate the spec jockeys, but in the end, the specs are at the service of their overall systemic experience.




    Okay then, I concur.

     

    Apple's entire ecosystem is unique: the hardware, the software, the digital content stores (digital media, apps, etc.), cloud services, etc. It is very well integrated. For a while, BlackBerry had some of that magic, then lost it, albeit they were never in the digital content market.

     

    There might have been instances of other great ecosystems (NTT DoCoMo fifteen years ago), but in today's world, Apple is the ruler.

     

    Amusingly, Apple walks away with most of the profits of any market sector they participate in; they may not be the biggest smartphone manufacturer, but they are walking away with the lion's share of the profits. As an AAPL shareholder, I appreciate the focused efforts.

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  • Reply 59 of 69
    I'm talking about supply and demand. Greater supply creates a buyers' market with lower prices. There are now 2000 furnaces on the market that weren't there a week ago. Obviously they can be repurposed. But whatever the end use, is there a market out there that will allow GTAT to be able to actually sell these furnaces at a price high enough to repay Apple in full?

    I never said anything about patents--only furnaces. If you want to disagree with what I wrote, that's fine. If I can learn something from you, that's great. But don't add your own assumptions to what I wrote and then disagree with me.

    If an entrepreneur believed that this was mostly GTAT's failure to execute a sound process, that entrepreneur might consider trying to partner with Apple to deliver where GTAT failed. Now that Apple has said that it's process is not ready for production, that entrepreneur would certainly reconsider the risk. That this was a two-party failure would increase the risk to the entrepreneur and discourage speculation.

    Yes. Very sorry. Wasn't trying to insinuate anything.

    Those machines/furnaces what-not are bolted to a concrete slab. They will not be going anywhere for a while. It's all paperwork pushing at the moment. It generally takes months before assests start to move.

    I may be completely wrong, but I don't envision any equipment going anywhere. Right now it's all paperwork.

    Again, sorry if I presupposed anything.
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  • Reply 60 of 69
    Yes. Very sorry. Wasn't trying to insinuate anything.

    Those machines/furnaces what-not are bolted to a concrete slab. They will not be going anywhere for a while. It's all paperwork pushing at the moment. It generally takes months before assests start to move.

    I may be completely wrong, but I don't envision any equipment going anywhere. Right now it's all paperwork.

    Again, sorry if I presupposed anything.
    No worries. I'm probably overly sensitive.

    If I remember correctly, Apple owns the building, and GTAT is staying rent-free as a part of the settlement. I agree that the furnaces may never leave the building. I doubt they get repurposed. What's really for sale is an opportunity to partner with Apple. Hopefully the new partner picks up the good GTAT employees that lost their jobs to bad management. I don't see Apple taking over operations directly, but I would not be surprised if there were an announcement soon that Apple will be taking ownership of the equipment. Then they could just solicit for an operator.

    There are a lot of possibilities for what did happen and what will will happen. This is pretty interesting to watch. Sapphire was probably Apple's do-want feature for the iPhone 6. However, they knew that not having it wouldn't hurt sales.
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