Then, there are those who play the virtuous circle game ... they invest in AAPL, use proceeds to buy Apple ... which gooses [appreciates] AAPL ...
In my case, I loved using Apple computers before I thought of investing in the stock. If I had done it much earlier I'd be rolling around in Scrooge McDuck money by now. ????
In my case, I loved using Apple computers before I thought of investing in the stock. If I had done it much earlier I'd be rolling around in Scrooge McDuck money by now. ????
Yeah, I got in at a good time in mid 2004. I'm just sorry I was screwing around about it for almost a year. If I hadn't, I could have bought an additional 20%.
No. That's not true. It doesn't work that way. Stock price is as much a psychological number as a technical one. Look at Amazon, and tell me why the stock is priced where it is. It's expectations that make a stock price as much as anything else.
Apple stands a very good chance of hitting a trillion. When exactly, is another story. Good luck with Stratasys, you'll need i
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
It's all about iPhone. Apple has one bad quarter where iPhone sales aren't great or margins have declined and Wall Street will dump the stock in a hurry. There's nothing fundamentally different about Apple now as there was in the fall of 2012 when the stock started taking a nose dive. The stock market has never been rational when it comes to Apple.
I think what has Wall Street interested now is the collaboration with IBM. Reaching the business market with an established player could mean huge new revenues. The business market is huge, and apple has still barely tapped it.
Yeah, I got in at a good time in mid 2004. I'm just sorry I was screwing around about it for almost a year. If I hadn't, I could have bought an additional 20%.
When I did buy AAPL I actually bought an equal dollar amount of MSFT because it wasn't clear who would come out on top at the time...one guess which stock won in that race.
In my case, I loved using Apple computers before I thought of investing in the stock. If I had done it much earlier I'd be rolling around in Scrooge McDuck money by now. ????
Yeah, I got in at a good time in mid 2004. I'm just sorry I was screwing around about it for almost a year. If I hadn't, I could have bought an additional 20%.
Yeah ... I was trying to learn the market via ChannelingStocks.com. They didn't have any recommendation on AAPL -- but I'd been watching it for years, and noticed it seemed to channel on a range between $17-$35...
So I bought some, and sold it a few weeks later at ~ 6% profit ...
$1T eventually, sure. But "next year"? You have to be outrageously bullish on AAPL to expect it to increase nearly 50% over the next 13.5 months. (Not that I'd complain.)
Valuations are based on expectations of future profit. If people's perceptions about Apple's profitability drastically change from one moment to the next (such as the day before the watch is released for sale and the day sales figures get reported), AAPL can easily increase 50% over the next 13.5 months. (Or go the opposite way.)
Look, Nov 22 last year, AAPL was at 74.26, today it's around 115. That's about a 45% increase in a year.
When I did buy AAPL I actually bought an equal dollar amount of MSFT because it wasn't clear who would come out on top at the time...one guess which stock won in that race.
Unless, of course, you bought MSFT in 1988-89. <I lost my ability to post emoticons>
I readily admit I'm a fucking idiot for not buying even more when it was hovering around $100 not that long ago, was close to doing it so many times then stopped myself for some reason. That would have been a few more grand easy.
Oh, and these analysts are complete fuckwits. The same ones now saying Apple stock is an "incredible value" when it's at an all time high, were the same ones proclaiming doom and gloom @$400, publishing negative article after negative article, and encouraging everyone to sell off. Bunch of shit-eating asshats. And yes, the universal "ITS A GREAT BUY" sentiment coming from analysts and investors now strongly reminds me of what was going on when it hit $700 and dropped like a rock. Not saying thats gonna happen this time, but illustrates the sheer lunacy of listening to these fucks. My damn financial advisor was implying that I was a moron when I kept snatching up more in the 400-600 range, and he was encouraging me to dump it all at 400. These assholes get paid to give this advice.
Dude, Apple services alone would put it in the Fortune top 100. That having been said, people do seem to love them some new iPhone 6! For me it's gonna be ... iPhone 7! My iPhone 5S cost me eight hundred bucks and that has gotta last at least 2.19 years.
When I did buy AAPL I actually bought an equal dollar amount of MSFT because it wasn't clear who would come out on top at the time...one guess which stock won in that race.
Unless, of course, you bought MSFT in 1988-89. <I lost my ability to post emoticons>
Feh! Invested in Microsoft for a bit over a year during the early mid '90s. Did pretty well, but I thought it had gone as far as it would. I should have held for another three years or so. Oh well. Never invested in them again.
I started investing when I was 13. My parents allowed me to invest my Bar Mitzvah money, when I asked. They introduced me to their broker, and he told me to invest in maybe 8 stocks from different industries, so if 4 went down, 4 would go up, and I wouldn't lose any money. That's the strategy of current money managers.
I told him that that didn't seem like a good idea, because when 4 went up, 4 would go down, and I wouldn't make any money, and so why couldn't I just buy the 4 that went up? He told me that people couldn't do that. I disagreed. I was always very stubborn, though I know that people here will find that hard to believe.
So I started to invest by buying Digital Equipment Corp. This was in 1963. I did very well with that, because I found the stock was very cyclic. Almost on schedule, it would go from about $70 to $120 three months later, and then back down to $70. So I would buy at $80 and sell at $110. Easy peasy. I already was interested in the computer industry as a kid, and so I've always stuck with that. I almost never invest anywhere else. Stay with what you know.
Why do you keep buying when the stock hits a high? Momentum investing is far too risky for me.
Ok, this is where investors who aren't very successful get their nut broken.
How do you know a vehicle is at a high? You only know historically. That is, with hindsight..
A while ago, a friend had about $100,000 in cash to invest. He has a fair investment portfolio, though he doesn't really invest, as he has a managed account (the thought of which, gives me the shivers). He asked, as I'm an Apple guy, whether he should get some Apple. I told him to do that. Apple was at $220. He goes to his guy, who says that Apple is a good idea, and he'll do that after Apple pulls back.
Well...
Apple never pulled back, and he never bought the stock.
You'll also notice... like AAPL's forward p/e at one time, Amazon's forward p/e is slowly coming down.
Looking at stocks over a 10 year period it becomes more obvious that technical always trumps psychological... even if psychological plays a big part at times.
The point I'm making is that it's not one thing, and not the other, it's both. Obviously, if the psych is high, but the company doesn't perform, the psych will move down. The psych is the expectation that the company will do this or that, but in the longer run, if it doesn't, the stock will crash. I predict that Amazon's stock will crash at some point.
The point I'm making is that it's not one thing, and not the other, it's both. Obviously, if the psych is high, but the company doesn't perform, the psych will move down. The psych is the expectation that the company will do this or that, but in the longer run, if it doesn't, the stock will crash. I predict that Amazon's stock will crash at some point.
I think you said the same thing I did... just differently.
Technicals always trump psych after a certain amount of time. People just can't stay psyched about a stock if the technicals keep proving them wrong. Eventually they run.
Apple slipped into its high p/e like it was an old pair of slippers and continued to increase valuation and the p/e went down.
Amazon's slippers are on the wrong feet and, yes, it will eventually crash if it doesn't improve its bottom line.
I think you said the same thing I did... just differently.
Technicals always trump psych after a certain amount of time. People just can't stay psyched about a stock if the technicals keep proving them wrong. Eventually they run.
Apple slipped into its high p/e like it was an old pair of slippers and continued to increase valuation and the p/e went down.
Amazon's slippers are on the wrong feet and, yes, it will eventually crash if it doesn't improve its bottom line.
What's interesting is that Apple has a great bottom line. Net margins are 20%. That's awfully good for a consumer electronics company. Amazon has no bottom line, just a lot of red ink.
Amazon may never be able to produce any real profits, because its business model is screwed up, and they keep digging the hole deeper. They can never stop, because if they do, then they stop growing. Bozos has been fooling the Street for years.
Ok, cool, keep your Apple stock. Hopefully, no one is betting on one horse!
I'm not sure I get your point. Everything could go down in a correction. Apple dropped by more than a half during 2007. I bought another 1,000 shares then. It cost $80 thousand, which is not a lot from an investment perspective. What is that worth now? Exactly!
Is the market up ten times since then? Exactly!
Speaking of which, I wonder when the next major correction will be.
Comments
In my case, I loved using Apple computers before I thought of investing in the stock. If I had done it much earlier I'd be rolling around in Scrooge McDuck money by now. ????
Yeah, I got in at a good time in mid 2004. I'm just sorry I was screwing around about it for almost a year. If I hadn't, I could have bought an additional 20%.
No. That's not true. It doesn't work that way. Stock price is as much a psychological number as a technical one. Look at Amazon, and tell me why the stock is priced where it is. It's expectations that make a stock price as much as anything else.
Apple stands a very good chance of hitting a trillion. When exactly, is another story. Good luck with Stratasys, you'll need i
It's all about iPhone. Apple has one bad quarter where iPhone sales aren't great or margins have declined and Wall Street will dump the stock in a hurry. There's nothing fundamentally different about Apple now as there was in the fall of 2012 when the stock started taking a nose dive. The stock market has never been rational when it comes to Apple.
I think what has Wall Street interested now is the collaboration with IBM. Reaching the business market with an established player could mean huge new revenues. The business market is huge, and apple has still barely tapped it.
When I did buy AAPL I actually bought an equal dollar amount of MSFT because it wasn't clear who would come out on top at the time...one guess which stock won in that race.
I always love it when people put an "if" in a statement that is supposed to be absolute.
How do you feel about "if and when"?
There's nothing fundamentally different about Apple now as there was in the fall of 2012 when the stock started taking a nose dive.
In the fall of 2012, AppleWatch was just a faintly rumored product. Today it is a real product. That is a fundamental difference.
Yeah ... I was trying to learn the market via ChannelingStocks.com. They didn't have any recommendation on AAPL -- but I'd been watching it for years, and noticed it seemed to channel on a range between $17-$35...
So I bought some, and sold it a few weeks later at ~ 6% profit ...
I piddled around a bit, like this then decided to invest in AAPL for the long haul.
$1T eventually, sure. But "next year"? You have to be outrageously bullish on AAPL to expect it to increase nearly 50% over the next 13.5 months. (Not that I'd complain.)
Valuations are based on expectations of future profit. If people's perceptions about Apple's profitability drastically change from one moment to the next (such as the day before the watch is released for sale and the day sales figures get reported), AAPL can easily increase 50% over the next 13.5 months. (Or go the opposite way.)
Look, Nov 22 last year, AAPL was at 74.26, today it's around 115. That's about a 45% increase in a year.
When I did buy AAPL I actually bought an equal dollar amount of MSFT because it wasn't clear who would come out on top at the time...one guess which stock won in that race.
Unless, of course, you bought MSFT in 1988-89. <I lost my ability to post emoticons>
Ah, we all seen it here before:
http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/149970/apple-stock-seen-hitting-2-000-by-the-end-of-2015
I readily admit I'm a fucking idiot for not buying even more when it was hovering around $100 not that long ago, was close to doing it so many times then stopped myself for some reason. That would have been a few more grand easy.
Oh, and these analysts are complete fuckwits. The same ones now saying Apple stock is an "incredible value" when it's at an all time high, were the same ones proclaiming doom and gloom @$400, publishing negative article after negative article, and encouraging everyone to sell off. Bunch of shit-eating asshats. And yes, the universal "ITS A GREAT BUY" sentiment coming from analysts and investors now strongly reminds me of what was going on when it hit $700 and dropped like a rock. Not saying thats gonna happen this time, but illustrates the sheer lunacy of listening to these fucks. My damn financial advisor was implying that I was a moron when I kept snatching up more in the 400-600 range, and he was encouraging me to dump it all at 400. These assholes get paid to give this advice.
Why do you keep buying when the stock hits a high? Momentum investing is far too risky for me.
not too late to buy IMO. Just bought 200 more shares and $7k in options on Monday.
I think we see $120 by EOY and $135 by Feb2015 if the Dec earnings are great.
You're most probably right. I'm just paranoid I guess.
I don't know, that's a tough one.
Feh! Invested in Microsoft for a bit over a year during the early mid '90s. Did pretty well, but I thought it had gone as far as it would. I should have held for another three years or so. Oh well. Never invested in them again.
I started investing when I was 13. My parents allowed me to invest my Bar Mitzvah money, when I asked. They introduced me to their broker, and he told me to invest in maybe 8 stocks from different industries, so if 4 went down, 4 would go up, and I wouldn't lose any money. That's the strategy of current money managers.
I told him that that didn't seem like a good idea, because when 4 went up, 4 would go down, and I wouldn't make any money, and so why couldn't I just buy the 4 that went up? He told me that people couldn't do that. I disagreed. I was always very stubborn, though I know that people here will find that hard to believe.
So I started to invest by buying Digital Equipment Corp. This was in 1963. I did very well with that, because I found the stock was very cyclic. Almost on schedule, it would go from about $70 to $120 three months later, and then back down to $70. So I would buy at $80 and sell at $110. Easy peasy. I already was interested in the computer industry as a kid, and so I've always stuck with that. I almost never invest anywhere else. Stay with what you know.
Ok, this is where investors who aren't very successful get their nut broken.
How do you know a vehicle is at a high? You only know historically. That is, with hindsight..
A while ago, a friend had about $100,000 in cash to invest. He has a fair investment portfolio, though he doesn't really invest, as he has a managed account (the thought of which, gives me the shivers). He asked, as I'm an Apple guy, whether he should get some Apple. I told him to do that. Apple was at $220. He goes to his guy, who says that Apple is a good idea, and he'll do that after Apple pulls back.
Well...
Apple never pulled back, and he never bought the stock.
The point I'm making is that it's not one thing, and not the other, it's both. Obviously, if the psych is high, but the company doesn't perform, the psych will move down. The psych is the expectation that the company will do this or that, but in the longer run, if it doesn't, the stock will crash. I predict that Amazon's stock will crash at some point.
The point I'm making is that it's not one thing, and not the other, it's both. Obviously, if the psych is high, but the company doesn't perform, the psych will move down. The psych is the expectation that the company will do this or that, but in the longer run, if it doesn't, the stock will crash. I predict that Amazon's stock will crash at some point.
I think you said the same thing I did... just differently.
Technicals always trump psych after a certain amount of time. People just can't stay psyched about a stock if the technicals keep proving them wrong. Eventually they run.
Apple slipped into its high p/e like it was an old pair of slippers and continued to increase valuation and the p/e went down.
Amazon's slippers are on the wrong feet and, yes, it will eventually crash if it doesn't improve its bottom line.
What's interesting is that Apple has a great bottom line. Net margins are 20%. That's awfully good for a consumer electronics company. Amazon has no bottom line, just a lot of red ink.
Amazon may never be able to produce any real profits, because its business model is screwed up, and they keep digging the hole deeper. They can never stop, because if they do, then they stop growing. Bozos has been fooling the Street for years.
The whole market is up, so of course Apple is up.
Apple could go down in a correction.
Ok, cool, keep your Apple stock. Hopefully, no one is betting on one horse!
I'm not sure I get your point. Everything could go down in a correction. Apple dropped by more than a half during 2007. I bought another 1,000 shares then. It cost $80 thousand, which is not a lot from an investment perspective. What is that worth now? Exactly!
Is the market up ten times since then? Exactly!
Speaking of which, I wonder when the next major correction will be.