UBS data suggests Apple sold 69M iPhones in blockbuster December quarter

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2015
The latest research from UBS has prompted the firm to advise investors that it believes Apple sold a massive 69 million iPhones in the just-concluded December quarter -- a sum that would obliterate the company's previous all-time record.

iPhones 2014


Using its proprietary UBS Evidence Lab iPhone Monitor, the investment firm told investors on Wednesday that it now expects Apple to have sold a total of 69.3 million iPhones in the December quarter. That's beyond Wall Street consensus of 65.5 million units for the three-month span.

To put the estimates in perspective, Apple's previous all-time record came a year ago, when the company sold a massive 51 million iPhones in the holiday 2013 quarter. An increase of 18.3 million units would amount to nearly 36 percent growth in iPhone sales from the year-ago quarter.

It should be noted, however, that Wall Street expectations were too high last year, as Apple was unable to build enough iPhones to meet demand. Prior to its December 2013 results, investors expected Apple to report sales of 56.5 million iPhones for the quarter.

Whether market expectations are again out of hand for the December 2014 quarter will be revealed on Tuesday, Jan. 27, when Apple reports its fiscal 2015 first-quarter results.




UBS analyst Steven Milunovich noted that his company's latest data reveals a likely surge in demand for the new iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus in China. The research suggests that China could account for as much as 35 percent of all iPhone shipments for the quarter, compared with 22 percent a year ago.

His estimates call for Apple to earn total revenue of $68 billion, up significantly from $57.6 billion in revenue a year ago.

UBS's estimates come from search results tracked in over 20 countries, weighted by respective country data from Gartner Market Statistics. Further adjustments are made for quarterly variances and seasonal effects, built on a model using a sample period from late 2008 to the end of 2012.

UBS has maintained its "buy" rating on shares of AAPL with a 12-month price target of $125.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 48
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,927member
    If true, it would be awesome. Can Apple make that many phones in a qtr?

    It's probably a "pump and dump" ploy by analysts.
  • Reply 2 of 48
    IF UBS is confident in its data, its price target would be $125 for next month. A 35% iPhone growth will move the stock massively. I assumed UBS back tested its model against past iPhone sales. What's the outcome of that experiment?
  • Reply 3 of 48
    Cue the analyst hand wringing because it wasnt 70 million.

    Still, this is a blockbuster result if true.
  • Reply 4 of 48
    schlackschlack Posts: 729member
    69 million? how can apple beat that next year?! doomed!!
  • Reply 4 of 48
    schlackschlack Posts: 729member
    69 million? how can apple beat that next year?! doomed!!
  • Reply 6 of 48

    I still think that they should sell 3 up-to-date models (5.5, 4.7, 4. All with 64 and 128 GB options)" and 1 year old versions of those devices with 32 GB of memory.

     

    As it stands, memory is the thing that will still give Android OEMs some room on the high end. Like big screens (especially) and 4g did. Less than 32GB (16 or 8) is just an insult and results in a crap product.

     

    Same strategy for iPads (12.2, 9.9, 7,9). 3 Laptops: The rumored 12" Air, starting with 256GB of memory for 999 $ (in place of the 11 and 13" Air and 13" rMBP), 15" rMBP starting at 1499$ and 17" rMBP at 1999$. **** the mini. 21" retina IMAC and 27" and keep updating the Pro.

     

    Focus more on software. Stop being greedy and unpleasant to users (low memory options, like the 8GB 5c and 16GB models. Stupid decisions, like the 2011 MBAir not supporting handoff (despite having the whole set of requirements) and having the worst display of every single laptop sold above 600$ since 2012).

     

    That would be nice. Also, 2 year schedule for OS and a bigger workforce on software. /rant

     

    Despite all that, what an amazing company.

  • Reply 7 of 48
    Trying to imagine what 69 million iPhones would look like if they were all set out together.
  • Reply 8 of 48
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MikeSmoke View Post



    Trying to imagine what 69 million iPhones would look like if they were all set out together.

     

    That would be one huge porn fest.

  • Reply 9 of 48
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    sog35 wrote: »
    Ridiculous.

    If they sold 69 million phones this stock should be $140 a share

    When has Apple stock ever been where it should be? It's always been undervalued.
  • Reply 10 of 48
    linkmanlinkman Posts: 1,046member
    Apple will announce their results and regardless of those results some joker will say they didn't meet expectations and the stock will drop. The next week Amazon will announce a $1 billion loss for the quarter and Amazon stock will increase in value. Much of the stock market makes no sense.
  • Reply 11 of 48
    Definitely Doomed™
  • Reply 12 of 48
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member

    ...Analysts quickly raised their estimates above 70M so that they could be disappointed when results were announced, thereby driving AAPL down. Most analysts were unavailable for comment as they were all vacationing on the Samsung private yacht. In other news...

     

    69 Million? I wish but that sounds a little too high.

  • Reply 13 of 48
    The haters now pin all their hopes for Apple's doom on the failure of the Apple WATCH.
  • Reply 14 of 48
    knowitallknowitall Posts: 1,648member
    mikesmoke wrote: »
    Trying to imagine what 69 million iPhones would look like if they were all set out together.

    That's not that difficult, if Apple sold only iPhone6 it is about 4405 m3 or a cube of 16,4m x 16,4m x 16,4m (16,4m3).
  • Reply 15 of 48
    iaeeniaeen Posts: 588member
    mikesmoke wrote: »
    Trying to imagine what 69 million iPhones would look like if they were all set out together.

    They would fill two Olympic size swimming pools and weigh more than three Saturn V rockets.
  • Reply 16 of 48
    knowitallknowitall Posts: 1,648member
    jungmark wrote: »
    If true, it would be awesome. Can Apple make that many phones in a qtr?

    It's probably a "pump and dump" ploy by analysts.

    They cannot make that many iPhones, but they can order them (like we do).
  • Reply 17 of 48
    Thanks, UBS...now analysts can say the quarter was disappointing if Apple only sold 68M phones.
  • Reply 18 of 48
    knowitallknowitall Posts: 1,648member
    knowitall wrote: »
    That's not that difficult, if Apple sold only iPhone6 it is about 4405 m3 or a cube of 16,4m x 16,4m x 16,4m (16,4m3).

    And about 9030 metric tons, impressive.
  • Reply 19 of 48
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,927member
    knowitall wrote: »
    They cannot make that many iPhones, but they can order them (like we do).

    True but orders don't count as sales until they ship.
  • Reply 20 of 48
    fracfrac Posts: 480member
    mikesmoke wrote: »
    Trying to imagine what 69 million iPhones would look like if they were all set out together.

    That would be one huge porn fest.

    I must be visiting the wrong sites :D
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