Actually that's the very reason his opinion should be discounted: He has a very heavily-vested interest in pumping the stock. (Don't get me wrong: I'd love to see AAPL at $200. It's just that if we're to listen to anyone, it should be a neutral 3rd party.)
The problem is that most neutral 3rd parties don't look closely enough at Apple to understand it, otherwise, they wouldn't be neutral 3rd parties, they'd be shareholders!
I generally agree that Wall Street doesn't understand Apple.
But I'm very sympathetic to their lack of understanding. Apple is totally unprecedented. How do you fit this data point into your statistical model? You can't -- there's nothing remotely like it in anybody's data.
To buy Apple stock, you have to believe that Apple can make monopolistic-ish profits even though they don't have a monopoly in anything. You have to believe that customers will continue to buy their products simply because customers like the products, not because customers have no other options. And that means Apple has to keep making products people like, year in and year out. Basically, you've got to have some pretty radical beliefs.
But if you have those beliefs, and act on them, and turn out to be right -- you can make a lot of money.
We're not due yet for a dividend increase. Expect Apple to iterate on a yearly basis just like their products.
Keep in mind, I was not expecting or calling for a dividend increase. In fact, I've been lukewarm on the idea since it was first proposed, despite being rewarded handsomely by its existence to date. I think large dividends for Apple attract fair-weather investors, many of which pile in, then sell off AAPL to collect their paycheck. I know my opinion on this matter is in the minority. A stock buyback program, minus the dividend would have been my druthers.
3 months ago, I was talking to someone about how Apple might earn $10 a share this fiscal year, which would be stunning growth from this past year's $6.45. Now, with $3.06 in the Xmas quarter and a guidance for $2+ in the next quarter, based upon revenue and GM guidance, Apple is well on its way to $9+ for this fiscal year. Stunning.
Apply an average market multiple to the $9+ in eps and you get something around $150, before you factor in its cash. That's pretty insane. Even Carl Icahn can see the obvious, what's the market's problem?
I generally agree that Wall Street doesn't understand Apple.
But I'm very sympathetic to their lack of understanding. Apple is totally unprecedented. How do you fit this data point into your statistical model? You can't -- there's nothing remotely like it in anybody's data.
To buy Apple stock, you have to believe that Apple can make monopolistic-ish profits even though they don't have a monopoly in anything. You have to believe that customers will continue to buy their products simply because customers like the products, not because customers have no other options. And that means Apple has to keep making products people like, year in and year out. Basically, you've got to have some pretty radical beliefs.
But if you have those beliefs, and act on them, and turn out to be right -- you can make a lot of money.
Why are they radical beliefs? Hasn't Apple been making the lion's share of the PC market's profit with only a tiny fraction of unit share? Somewhere between 5 and 10%. They've been able to do that year in year out. Maybe, the market hasn't been paying attention to what Apple has been doing, since they wrote off Apple in the PC wars a long time ago.
I recall many thought the iPhone flopped at first. It is unlikely IMHO that the ?Watch will be a home run out of the box, say the way the iPhone 6 was, it will take time. It may well be a few years before it hits its stride, possibly a second or third generation ?Watch before that happens. I just believe it will eventually. Between now and then we still have a few 'watch-gates' to go no doubt ...
If you are a shareholder, this guy made you some money.
I still have a fresh memory from a few years ago of a heated conversation I had with ExtremeSkater. I called-him out on his prediction that AAPL will NEVER hit $170/share which quickly went to $200, then skirted at the $700 not much later. Mysteriously, he kind of went dark after all this. He was very anti-AAPL.
what goes up usually come down, what goes down usually goes up. It just doesn't happen in a straight line. The only question is timing your trades. I'm long on Apple. Icahn has made me a lot of money Thnak you
I don't know about Apple being worth $203 but I think I'd like to see Apple sitting at $120 after stellar earnings and breaking all-time corporate profit records. I wasn't too happy to see Apple's P/E ratio suddenly compress overnight after earnings. Apple did great on earnings so I feel the price should be a bit higher than it is. I'm totally baffled about how Apple's fair value is determined, but I was hoping for Apple to get back to $120 at some point this week. However, I'll take whatever share price I can get and simply hope for Apple to increase the dividend a little bit more. At least that's something Apple has control over.
Didn't they announce already for dividend of $0.47 payable on Feb 12?
the strength of the iPhone can carry this to $140 easily. Any Watch profit is a bonus.
Apple Watch will kill them all when it's released. Even though I don't like the rumored battery life, I still believe Apple Watch will rule wearable devices in 2015.
I generally agree that Wall Street doesn't understand Apple.
But I'm very sympathetic to their lack of understanding. Apple is totally unprecedented. How do you fit this data point into your statistical model? You can't -- there's nothing remotely like it in anybody's data.
To buy Apple stock, you have to believe that Apple can make monopolistic-ish profits even though they don't have a monopoly in anything. You have to believe that customers will continue to buy their products simply because customers like the products, not because customers have no other options. And that means Apple has to keep making products people like, year in and year out. Basically, you've got to have some pretty radical beliefs.
But if you have those beliefs, and act on them, and turn out to be right -- you can make a lot of money.
it's less about monopoly vs growth. People want to see growth, and when you're the largest company in a 'discretionary' product field, growth is unlikely (erosion from below, highly dependent on general economy, and consumer growth is unlikely, unless you price your self into lower margin products), hence the back pressure on P/E.
Face it, if you've sold a BILLION things, and the assumption is that consumer set is saturated, you now need to sell to the next billion people who earn 1/2 have of the top billion (read: you need to cut your margins quite a bit)... there is a point of no return [on investment](see: Samsung).
What they don't understand is that Apple's Value Proposition is less about luxury, and more about functionality. As iOS and iPads/iPhones become pervasive, they become more valuable to everyone, and much like cars (or PCs in the 80's), people will stop eating to get $$ for an iPhone (addiction? maybe).
Once we move away from Active Directory and fat clients as a limiting factor for corporate productivity, you'll see iPads and ASeries Macbooks explode in growth. That's the next curve Apple will ride.
Apple Watch will kill them all when it's released. Even though I don't like the rumored battery life, I still believe Apple Watch will rule wearable devices in 2015.
Apple Watch will kill them all when it's released. Even though I don't like the rumored battery life, I still believe Apple Watch will rule wearable devices in 2015.
It will rule smartwatches, but personally I still don't believe the market is that huge. Certainly not as large as the phone market and especially when functionality is limited by the lack of a GPS.
It will rule smartwatches, but personally I still don't believe the market is that huge. Certainly not as large as the phone market and especially when functionality is limited by the lack of a GPS.
If the apple watch starts like the first iPhone, in 7 years it could be huge. Even iPhone started large but not huge.
In 7 years, the latest apple with May still be $349, effectively half price in adjusted dollars. That's apple. That's the iPhone.
They created the touchscreen market.
As for their stock, I see it going up. Up, up, UP!
Comments
No dividend increase at this time, according to Apple's dividend web page.
http://investor.apple.com/dividends.cfm
We're not due yet for a dividend increase. Expect Apple to iterate on a yearly basis just like their products.
Actually that's the very reason his opinion should be discounted: He has a very heavily-vested interest in pumping the stock. (Don't get me wrong: I'd love to see AAPL at $200. It's just that if we're to listen to anyone, it should be a neutral 3rd party.)
The problem is that most neutral 3rd parties don't look closely enough at Apple to understand it, otherwise, they wouldn't be neutral 3rd parties, they'd be shareholders!
But it will go to $120 and IMO $140 this year.
Then again, if the Apple Watch is a flop...
I generally agree that Wall Street doesn't understand Apple.
But I'm very sympathetic to their lack of understanding. Apple is totally unprecedented. How do you fit this data point into your statistical model? You can't -- there's nothing remotely like it in anybody's data.
To buy Apple stock, you have to believe that Apple can make monopolistic-ish profits even though they don't have a monopoly in anything. You have to believe that customers will continue to buy their products simply because customers like the products, not because customers have no other options. And that means Apple has to keep making products people like, year in and year out. Basically, you've got to have some pretty radical beliefs.
But if you have those beliefs, and act on them, and turn out to be right -- you can make a lot of money.
We're not due yet for a dividend increase. Expect Apple to iterate on a yearly basis just like their products.
Keep in mind, I was not expecting or calling for a dividend increase. In fact, I've been lukewarm on the idea since it was first proposed, despite being rewarded handsomely by its existence to date. I think large dividends for Apple attract fair-weather investors, many of which pile in, then sell off AAPL to collect their paycheck. I know my opinion on this matter is in the minority. A stock buyback program, minus the dividend would have been my druthers.
3 months ago, I was talking to someone about how Apple might earn $10 a share this fiscal year, which would be stunning growth from this past year's $6.45. Now, with $3.06 in the Xmas quarter and a guidance for $2+ in the next quarter, based upon revenue and GM guidance, Apple is well on its way to $9+ for this fiscal year. Stunning.
Apply an average market multiple to the $9+ in eps and you get something around $150, before you factor in its cash. That's pretty insane. Even Carl Icahn can see the obvious, what's the market's problem?
What am I missing?
I generally agree that Wall Street doesn't understand Apple.
But I'm very sympathetic to their lack of understanding. Apple is totally unprecedented. How do you fit this data point into your statistical model? You can't -- there's nothing remotely like it in anybody's data.
To buy Apple stock, you have to believe that Apple can make monopolistic-ish profits even though they don't have a monopoly in anything. You have to believe that customers will continue to buy their products simply because customers like the products, not because customers have no other options. And that means Apple has to keep making products people like, year in and year out. Basically, you've got to have some pretty radical beliefs.
But if you have those beliefs, and act on them, and turn out to be right -- you can make a lot of money.
Why are they radical beliefs? Hasn't Apple been making the lion's share of the PC market's profit with only a tiny fraction of unit share? Somewhere between 5 and 10%. They've been able to do that year in year out. Maybe, the market hasn't been paying attention to what Apple has been doing, since they wrote off Apple in the PC wars a long time ago.
I recall many thought the iPhone flopped at first. It is unlikely IMHO that the ?Watch will be a home run out of the box, say the way the iPhone 6 was, it will take time. It may well be a few years before it hits its stride, possibly a second or third generation ?Watch before that happens. I just believe it will eventually. Between now and then we still have a few 'watch-gates' to go no doubt ...
If you are a shareholder, this guy made you some money.
I still have a fresh memory from a few years ago of a heated conversation I had with ExtremeSkater. I called-him out on his prediction that AAPL will NEVER hit $170/share which quickly went to $200, then skirted at the $700 not much later. Mysteriously, he kind of went dark after all this. He was very anti-AAPL.
Barclays just made the same consclusion $150 it will just take it 3 months to get there, pretty safe bet really. Stocks don't go up in a straight line
I don't know about Apple being worth $203 but I think I'd like to see Apple sitting at $120 after stellar earnings and breaking all-time corporate profit records. I wasn't too happy to see Apple's P/E ratio suddenly compress overnight after earnings. Apple did great on earnings so I feel the price should be a bit higher than it is. I'm totally baffled about how Apple's fair value is determined, but I was hoping for Apple to get back to $120 at some point this week. However, I'll take whatever share price I can get and simply hope for Apple to increase the dividend a little bit more. At least that's something Apple has control over.
Didn't they announce already for dividend of $0.47 payable on Feb 12?
does not matter if the watch 'flops' this year.
the strength of the iPhone can carry this to $140 easily. Any Watch profit is a bonus.
Apple Watch will kill them all when it's released. Even though I don't like the rumored battery life, I still believe Apple Watch will rule wearable devices in 2015.
I generally agree that Wall Street doesn't understand Apple.
But I'm very sympathetic to their lack of understanding. Apple is totally unprecedented. How do you fit this data point into your statistical model? You can't -- there's nothing remotely like it in anybody's data.
To buy Apple stock, you have to believe that Apple can make monopolistic-ish profits even though they don't have a monopoly in anything. You have to believe that customers will continue to buy their products simply because customers like the products, not because customers have no other options. And that means Apple has to keep making products people like, year in and year out. Basically, you've got to have some pretty radical beliefs.
But if you have those beliefs, and act on them, and turn out to be right -- you can make a lot of money.
it's less about monopoly vs growth. People want to see growth, and when you're the largest company in a 'discretionary' product field, growth is unlikely (erosion from below, highly dependent on general economy, and consumer growth is unlikely, unless you price your self into lower margin products), hence the back pressure on P/E.
Face it, if you've sold a BILLION things, and the assumption is that consumer set is saturated, you now need to sell to the next billion people who earn 1/2 have of the top billion (read: you need to cut your margins quite a bit)... there is a point of no return [on investment](see: Samsung).
What they don't understand is that Apple's Value Proposition is less about luxury, and more about functionality. As iOS and iPads/iPhones become pervasive, they become more valuable to everyone, and much like cars (or PCs in the 80's), people will stop eating to get $$ for an iPhone (addiction? maybe).
Once we move away from Active Directory and fat clients as a limiting factor for corporate productivity, you'll see iPads and ASeries Macbooks explode in growth. That's the next curve Apple will ride.
Apple Watch will kill them all when it's released. Even though I don't like the rumored battery life, I still believe Apple Watch will rule wearable devices in 2015.
https://medium.com/@kiteaton/dont-stress-about-smartwatch-battery-life-its-a-500-year-old-problem-bec2868f95e5
It will rule smartwatches, but personally I still don't believe the market is that huge. Certainly not as large as the phone market and especially when functionality is limited by the lack of a GPS.
That's a nice sentiment, but I distinctly recall that, at one point a couple of years ago, you mentioned you had got rid of all your Apple stock.
Were you not expressing any opinions on these boards then?
Icahn having his own shot at price manipulation.
If the apple watch starts like the first iPhone, in 7 years it could be huge. Even iPhone started large but not huge.
In 7 years, the latest apple with May still be $349, effectively half price in adjusted dollars. That's apple. That's the iPhone.
They created the touchscreen market.
As for their stock, I see it going up. Up, up, UP!
Up