Insider advises Apple investors to brace for 50% plunge in iPad sales this quarter

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  • Reply 141 of 186
    adonissmuadonissmu Posts: 1,776member

    Let's face it. Consumers don't buy tech just to buy it every year because they need that one killer new feature. Average consumers buy new stuff when they need new stuff...not simply because it's available. Eventually the pace of innovation in these new product areas was bound to slow down. The same was true with the PC/Mac. The same will be true with the watch after the first several of them get released. 

  • Reply 142 of 186
    onhkaonhka Posts: 1,025member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post



    Some of the things Apple has done with iPad are head scratching. In 2013 they basically bring parity to the mini and full size iPad making screen size and price the only differentiator. Then they abandon that one year later with the iPad mini 3 which basically does nothing but add Touch ID, And just when you think Apple would/should be moving to retina only screens across all iOS devices they decide to keep the original mini in the lineup. Even though you can get competing tablets with much better screens for cheaper. Apple needs a big rethink on iPad. Just throwing some IBM apps on it and having IBM push it to big companies is not enough.

     

    AND MAN, ARE THEY SELLING ;)

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post



    Nope. ios was not designed for the mouse just like OS X wasn't designed for touch. Hybrids have failed.



    Apple has no problem cannibalizing its own products.

     

    Right on…

    Quote:

    In marketing strategycannibalization refers to a reduction in sales volume, sales revenue, or market share of one product as a result of the introduction of a new product by the same producer.

    While this may seem inherently negative, in the context of a carefully planned strategy, it can be effective, by ultimately growing the market, or better meeting consumer demands. Cannibalization is a key consideration in product portfolio analysis.

    For example, when Apple introduced the iPad, it took sales away from the original Macintosh, but ultimately led to an expanded market for consumer computing hardware.




    …much like having additional children. Unfortunately, it doesn't always work in life as evidenced by many of the nutbags here!

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post

     

    This sounds very much like the "Apple will never make a smaller iPad. Steve said I'd have to file down my finger tips to use one if they did. Every tablet smaller than the iPad has failed so it would be stupid for Apple to make one."

     

    ...enter iPad mini.


     

    Like hell he did!

  • Reply 143 of 186
    onhkaonhka Posts: 1,025member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by brlawyer View Post

     

    I definitely agree and also love my Air - but salvation will not come in the form of a 13" monster iPad, trust me.


     

    Trust you?

     

    You're a lawyer?

     

    As evidenced in virtually every public survey conducted re "Who do you trust the least?" only lawyers are challenged by politicians and journalists as the scummiest lying professionals on earth.

  • Reply 144 of 186
    Brace for doom!
  • Reply 145 of 186
    esoomesoom Posts: 155member

    I've had every version of the iPad except the 4, and the Mini gen 3, use one every day, it's so far from dead, it's ridiculous to discuss it.

     

    Numbers are down, but that's to be expected, a slower upgrade cycle and cannibalism from the 6 and 6+ are to be expected, I'm just glad Apple isn't afraid to cannibalize it's own products, leaving no holes for other manufacturers to fill.

     

    I live in S. California, and it's prime Apple consumer country, nearly everyone I know that could upgrade to the 6 or the 6+ has done so, the mid cycle upgraders are already talking about the mid cycle iPhone upgrade this year.

  • Reply 146 of 186
    esoomesoom Posts: 155member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by markbyrn View Post



    Brace for doom!

     

    LOL...  I wonder who coined "Apple is doomed" first, it always brings a smile to my face. :)

  • Reply 147 of 186
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,448moderator
    cm477 wrote: »
    I didn't write that ("tablets are a fad...'). I think you may have gotten a little creative with your editing.

    I changed it to the right name now.
    cm477 wrote: »
    I think the iPhone 6+ may have cannibalized some iPad sales for those who don't mind carrying around a huge phone in their pocket or purse.
    mstrmac wrote:
    Sales that would have gone into desktops and tablets are now going to mobile computers (Smartphones).

    The iPhone 6 Plus isn't good enough for someone that wants a full tablet experience but it has the advantage of mobile data coming with the device so no matter where you are, you can get the social media fix. The iPad mini is limited to a wifi environment if you don't pay for the additional data, although you can get easier tethering now. For prolonged reading, the iPhone screen is far too small:


    [VIDEO]


    I don't think Apple promotes the book side of the iPad much, maybe less now because of their run-in with the law. It's still quite a big market. There are some book stats here:

    http://www.wischenbart.com/upload/1234000000358_04042014_final.pdf
    http://www.magellanmediapartners.com/startupsentrepreneurs/what-role-should-ebook-profits-play-in-a-publishers-business-strategy/
    http://www.csmonitor.com/Innovation/2014/1117/Amazon-Hachette-reach-deal.-So-how-big-is-the-world-of-e-books

    ebook unit volume was 473 million copies in 2012/2013 for just 13% of the market, which would make the whole market 3.6 billion units per year. 2014 revenues for all books were noted as being $151b. The unit volume seems to stay quite steady so that revenue looks a bit high as it would mean price per book was over $40, which I doubt. Average physical books seem to be around $20, ebooks around $5.

    Their book store has the same problem as the App Store. Immediately you get thrown into the top charts where you see the same books over and over. One of the above links said that adult fiction is more popular in ebooks - the likes of 50 Shades of Grey (called mommy porn, that one sold over 100 million copies) that have erotic stories aimed at female readers. This makes sense because it's easier to hide. Apple should capitalise on this by adding security features to the iPads to hide books inside iBooks with the fingerprint.

    They've been linking up with the fashion industry to promote the watch but not so much the book industry to sell iPads. They added book gifting to iOS 7 but it always relies on knowing email addresses and you can set the date to an occasion but it's not the same sending an email to somebody as handing them something in person. They can have printable codes or custom cards that get sent out. It would also be quite nice to be able to bundle an iPad with books. It's a bit expensive to gift an iPad but it's like gifting a games console with a few games at first and then it's easier to buy for them in future as you just get more games.

    Barnes and Noble partnered with Samsung for their book reader:

    http://cir.ca/news/the-future-of-barnes-nobles-nook

    The reader is $179 and comes with $200 worth of books. The iPad mini starts at $249 but really $299 for the Retina one. There doesn't seem to be many book retailers around but there's Waterstones in the UK with 275 stores. Barnes and Noble has over 600 retail stores plus over 600 college stores. Getting more heavily into the education market for books would be good. It's not easy to read textbooks on a computer and certainly not on a phone. The iPad is much better suited for this. Beyond just reading, it should allow you to easily copy/paste from one to the other. So while you are working on a Macbook Air, it should be possible to have a textbook open on the iPad, easily select some things, copy them and just paste them into the Macbook.

    This goes back to gifting too. College students get textbook lists and grandparents can gift these to their grandchildren as long as there's an easy way to do that.

    Barnes and Noble also runs cafes so partnering up with a company like Waterstones (maybe multiple stores) would push ?Pay for paying for coffee and snacks and they can have deals where if you buy a physical book, you get the ebook free on the iPad. It's hard for it to work in reverse but maybe there can be a discount for the physical copy. That would drive people to buy physical books more and it helps promote iPads.

    Having children's education bundles is another route they can go down. Apps are so scattered that parents can't possibly put together education bundles. They can work with schools to get approved training bundles for certain grades.

    Gaming is better on the iPad than iPhone 6 Plus, look at the candy sizes:


    [VIDEO]


    [VIDEO]


    Being able to keep kids entertained while travelling is a problem. If they had an official (and reasonably priced) controller, they could have attachments to stick the iPad to the back of the seats and let kids play games. With an official controller, developers will support it. It needs to be touch control because it should let them control the iPad to launch the game (and movies) without touching the screen.

    Getting more heavily into movie streaming is another route that would help the iPad out.

    These usage scenarios still don't all require new iPads but they can help promote iPad uptake in its strongest markets. They can perhaps bundle them on phone subscriptions too so you can get an iPhone 6 for a certain monthly amount plus an iPad Air with a shared data contract if you pay $20/month extra and then you can upgrade both.
  • Reply 148 of 186
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,927member
    brlawyer wrote: »


    So if Cook et al. feel like this is gonna save iPad's ass, well...they've got another thing coming. This is the bulk of my criticism against him: with SJ gone, it seems like Apple is excellent at continuity but NOT at breaking new ground. And when more than 65% of your revenues come from ONLY one product line (the iPhone), you should be worried as to how this momentum will be kept.

    Oh God! I remember when Jobs conquered new markets daily. I also remember Jobs redesigning all Apple's products yearly. Oh wait, that never happened!
  • Reply 149 of 186
    Apple got the "tablet" right, so right that there is little genuine need to upgrade older devices. iPhones are heavily upgraded every 2 years. Until 1 of 2 things occur, the upgrade cycle for iPads is going to extend.

    The first is the 5 years that Apple supports products. The form factor, software and technology that Apple created for the iPad was near perfect. Therefore, the motive to upgrade is very low. iPad has just now been on the market for 5 years. That means that Apple continues to support the very first iPad sold, both hardware and software. But even then, the number sold in 2010 was small compered to today's volume, so the number of these devices that are replaced in the coming year will not have much impact of unit sales. This reason to upgrade won't have meaningful impact until 2017/2018.

    The second is the job the iPad was hired to do. Granted the latest iPads can do jobs better, but not so much better to warrant upgrading. My 2nd generation iPad still does everything I want, and does them very well.

    There is a new job that I think can motivate upgrades, that is 64 bit support. Apple is forcing developers to convert their apps to 64 bit. As support for 32 bit apps wane, upgrades to 64 bit iPads and apps will increase.

    Sixty-four bit support will be required for Apple Watch integration, and the apps developed to support the Apple Watch. "Continuity" will drive iPad sales to those that have upgraded to iPhone 6/Plus, AND purchased an Apple Watch. Impact will begin in 2016.

    As nice as the iPhone 6 Plus screen is (size), it is no match for an iPad screen. There will be some cannibalization by the iPhone 6/Plus, but it won't be meaningful.
  • Reply 150 of 186
    The take off would be if they offered it as a laptop and not simply an iPad. I have used touch screen laptops and generally speaking they suck. But an Apple laptop with a touch interface would be so much better. Maybe that is where a 12.9 inch screen would be the business because you could easily match it with a full sized keyboard in the case instead of those wrong sized smaller ones. But then lower sales isn't the worst thing. I, like may others prefer the iPad to other devices, that is computer and phones. Its cool to have little things but as you get older, like I am, the iPad is still the primary go to device. The only problem is that it costs so much, it isn't fiscally responsible to upgrade every year or even every other year.
  • Reply 151 of 186
    fallenjt wrote: »
    iPad Mini was Apple's bad response to the Apple whinners' complaints when they saw bunch of android 7" tablets and thought it would be useful. Apple should slowly fade out the Mini and no one even cares. Sometimes, Apple should not respond to a small group of users, just like those are demanding 4" iPhone 6/6S...yup. 
    I love my iPad mini retina. I use it for email, as an ebook reader, document editor, music player, video editor, photo editor, video editor, watching tv and playing the odd game. It prints to and scans from my wireless printer, connects to my Bluetooth keyboard, and connects via a wifi hub to an external hard drive and via a Apple TV to my 42" TV. What more do you want from a computer that is about the same size as thin paperback book?
  • Reply 152 of 186
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    onhka wrote: »
    AND MAN, ARE THEY SELLING ;)

    Yes I'm sure they are selling better than Apple's 1st gen mini. I certainly wouldn't encourage anyone to buy it. iOS 7/8 was clearly designed with retina in mind. It looks like crap on non retina devices. And I certainly wouldn't want to run iOS 8 on an A5 chip. The mini 2 should be Apple's entry level iPad. They shouldn't be selling any more iOS devices that don't have retina displays. But when the focus is on margins and up selling above all else this is what you get. The 1st gen iPad mini only exists to get people to spend $50 more for a mini 2.
  • Reply 153 of 186
    pfisherpfisher Posts: 758member
    drewys808 wrote: »

    Well, yes and no.  Many here have intelligently discussed the massive potential of blurring the lines between mobile and desktop computing...this would be good for consumers.  If you think about it, the iPad is an inexpensive laptop yet has the computing power to do almost all of what 80% of the population wants.  However, when doing a bit more serious typing, calcs, editing, etc., it's best if the screen were vertical and the interface(s) handled ergonomically (e.g. mouse, keyboard, voice, air gestures, etc.).

    ...this could be Apple's opportunity to increase to 50%-60% of the developed world's computer (mobile and desktop combined) purchases...when considering that Apple will continue to increase sales of its iMac and hopefully a re-marketed Mac Mini/display package.

    Basically, in 10 years all that consumers will know is that Apple is THE computing hardware to use because it's seamless and reasonably priced...and won't feel the difference between mobile and desktop computing.  And they won't care if it's OSX or iOS...they just all work.

    We will see an apple produced iOS laptop. Maybe it will be next month when they come out with a hybrid system like windows and android have.

    The Dell Venue Pro looks pretty good. And runs full windows.

    Many many people would not know the difference. The iOS app ecosystem is very big now.

    Maybe the iPad pro is the hybrid laptop
  • Reply 154 of 186
    pfisherpfisher Posts: 758member
    crosslad wrote: »
    I love my iPad mini retina. I use it for email, as an ebook reader, document editor, music player, video editor, photo editor, video editor, watching tv and playing the odd game. It prints to and scans from my wireless printer, connects to my Bluetooth keyboard, and connects via a wifi hub to an external hard drive and via a Apple TV to my 42" TV. What more do you want from a computer that is about the same size as thin paperback book?
    I've owned about every Mac that has shipped and I no longer really need one now. My iPhone 6+ is pretty much all I need now. Same goes for family members.
  • Reply 155 of 186
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by brlawyer View Post

     



    Let me be clear - I never intended to say that the AWatch "replaces" the iPad - it was just to say that the "next big thing" on Apple's list IS the AWatch, with the purported goal of having it as a major cash cow after the iPhone. In the meantime, it seems like Apple has already given up on the iPad, with the Mini all but discontinued and the Air just being the Air - and a BIGGER iPad? For what? To disregard all previous statements of "having the world in your hands"? A 13" tablet is definitely not anyone's model of portability or "on the bed/by the TV" computing. 

     

    So if Cook et al. feel like this is gonna save iPad's ass, well...they've got another thing coming. This is the bulk of my criticism against him: with SJ gone, it seems like Apple is excellent at continuity but NOT at breaking new ground. And when more than 65% of your revenues come from ONLY one product line (the iPhone), you should be worried as to how this momentum will be kept.


     

    For fiscal year 2006 iPods as a percentage of total unit sales was 84%. In fiscal year 2007 (excluding iPhone) that number was 87%. This most current quarter iPhone unit sales were 73% of total sales. Seems to me for many years under Jobs Apple was basically the iPod company. Heck I remember one event in the mid 2000s where all Apple announced was a special edition black and red U2 iPod and iPod socks! Apple is no different today than it was under Steve.

  • Reply 156 of 186
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

     

    The air 2 was a major upgrade on the air, crushing all competition, even the NExus 9. So, how is that abandoning the Ipad? Quite a stretch there... I think an even better integration of the Watch, Iphone, Ipad, Mac and Apple TV, will be one of the thing that spurs upgrades.


     

    How was the Air 2 major upgrade over the Air? Because it has the 2GB RAM the Air should have had in the first place? How many developers and consumers are taking advantage of the powerful A8X chip? Don't get me wrong, I love my Air 2 but the only reason I upgraded was for the additional RAM. I definitely have fewer Safari page reloads but unfortunately Safari on iOS 8 is worse than it was on iOS 7 and more RAM can't solve for that.

  • Reply 157 of 186
    mpantonempantone Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

     

     

    For fiscal year 2006 iPods as a percentage of total unit sales was 84%. In fiscal year 2007 (excluding iPhone) that number was 87%. This most current quarter iPhone unit sales were 73% of total sales. Seems to me for many years under Jobs Apple was basically the iPod company. Heck I remember one event in the mid 2000s where all Apple announced was a special edition black and red U2 iPod and iPod socks! Apple is no different today than it was under Steve.




    Why are you quoting unit sales? It's about revenue and margin.

     

    Great, so Apple was selling 84% of total unit sales as iPods in 2006. Guess what? ASP for an iPod is vastly lower than Macs. Today? iPod ASP is vastly lower than iPhones as well as Macs, plus iPhone gross margin is amazingly high. Moreover, the App Store is now a statistically significant contributor to Apple's revenue stream. You can't buy apps for the iPod product line.

     

    Using unit sales as a comparison metric shows that you don't know squat about Apple's basic financials.

     

    After all these years of reading articles here and dozens of other tech news websites, you still have learned nothing.

  • Reply 158 of 186
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Esoom View Post

     
     

    LOL...  I wonder who coined "Apple is doomed" first, it always brings a smile to my face. :)


    This the earliest reference I could find:

     

    http://www.azillionmonkeys.com/qed/appleOld.html

  • Reply 159 of 186

    50% plunge is nonsense, ridiculous and probably some kind of deliberate disinformation by an Apple enemy or short, similar to Bendgate or the false rumored the iPhone6 would be delayed until months later than it actually came out. That rumor also came from some Asian "expert insider" who had sources with the supply chain people.

     

    The truth is, pads in general are becoming slightly less popular than before as people find that a large phone screen and Mac or laptop is plenty'.   However, millions of professionals and students live by their iPads, and iPads dominate profitability if not unit sales in the pad sector, and that will continue. The iPad in short has no competition except from the large new iPhones and the Mac.   If anyone with money wants a pad, it'll be an iPad.  

     

    Also, what is the iPad's only real competition?  The Microsoft Surface. And despite huge ad buys, that product is not selling much at all. for one thing is costs almost as much as a Mac and runs Windows. So who wants it except someone who only knows Windows and is willing to spend too much.  

     

    Also remember, every iPad that is cannibalized by a large iPhone or Mac means Apple makes MORE money not less. The profit margins of the Mac and iPhone are better.  And yes, upgrade cycles are much longer, about 3 years as compared to 2 for an iPhone. And any super serious techie upgrades their every two years. 

     

    So false alarm. Pay no attention  to the "insider" who can't even do 3rd grade math.

    A 50% plunge would mean no one wants any pad at all of any brand. And that is definitely not happening.  Another 10% dip though, very possible.  At least until the IBM-Apple pro aps thing gets fully going.  Then we could see a rise in iPad sales,

  • Reply 160 of 186
    sirozhasirozha Posts: 801member
    fallenjt wrote: »
    Good for users? I doubt it. I would say 90% of iPad owners don't do real works on their iPad. Apple have never wanted to do hybrid device, in this case, it's kind of. Their products are for designated use and give best user experience. iPad would never perform well with laptop functions and vice versa. Tell me any keyboard-mouse combo for tablet out there would perform even close to Apple Magic Pad-mouse combo.

    Apple never wanted to make an iPad Mini or a 5" iPhone. Yet they have.

    There was not going to be an App Store for iOS, nor was there going to be the iBooks Store because according to Steve Jobs "people don't read books anymore."

    I refuse job offers if a prospective employer doesn't issue or allow Macs, so I'm no WINTEL fan. However, some friends of mine who work exclusively in Windows LOVE Surface Pro 3. There's definitely a use case for such a hybrid device and not only for light home use, but also for network engineering work.
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