I don't study balance sheets. I don't have the time nor the expertise.
Some of us are not fixated on "wall street". We buy and hold, choosing low-cost index funds. We know that it's not safe to buy any one stock or be heavily invested in one or a handful (although Buffet is doing that).
Over the long run, buying individual stocks is not a wise move. And it is a waste of time. At least for 99% of the population.
So you admit you're no expert, yet proclaim you 'know' it's not safe to buy any one stock or be heavily invested in one or a handful, even though Buffett does just that. It's most definitely not a waste of time to study individual businesses, how businesses function, and invest in just one or a few businesses and follow closely your investments. You may ha e neither the aptitude nor the time for it, and that's fine for you, but that doesn't make it a waste of time.
I admire your enthusiasm, but wouldn't that absolutely require
an incredibly well-received <span style="line-height:1.4em;">introduction of ?Watch? </span>
<span style="line-height:1.4em;">(Which some of us - you included - regularly gainsay.)</span>
And a lot more momentum for ?Pay as well?
No, not really. A $1 trillion valuation is not right around the corner, in tne next few quarters. But two years from now, it's entirely possible, and that will require a steady build of the Watch regardless of how it's initially received and reviewed. Apple Pay is largely inconsequential with respect to directly contributing to Apple's bottom line, but does strengthen the ecosystem which helps sell more iPhones, and will help too with the Watch sales. The biggest driver that will help Apple get to a $1 trillion valuation, in my opinion, will be the ongoing strength of the larger screen iPhone upgrade cycle that kicked off so strongly these past several months. We should see quarter after quarter strong revenue and earnings beats for the remainder of Apple's 2015 fiscal year, during which the Watch and Apple's deal with IBM will have time to get their legs under them. Also during which we should see significant progress on the growth of the HealthKit, HomeKit, and CarPlay ecosystems.
No, not really. A $1 trillion valuation is not right around the corner, in tne next few quarters. But two years from now, it's entirely possible, and that will require a steady build of the Watch regardless of how it's initially received and reviewed. Apple Pay is largely inconsequential with respect to directly contributing to Apple's bottom line, but does strengthen the ecosystem which helps sell more iPhones, and will help too with the Watch sales. The biggest driver that will help Apple get to a $1 trillion valuation, in my opinion, will be the ongoing strength of the larger screen iPhone upgrade cycle that kicked off so strongly these past several months. We should see quarter after quarter strong revenue and earnings beats for the remainder of Apple's 2015 fiscal year, during which the Watch and Apple's deal with IBM will have time to get their legs under them. Also during which we should see significant progress on the growth of the HealthKit, HomeKit, and CarPlay ecosystems.
Incidentally, based on the iPhone's release history, when will we see the appearance of the 6S and 6S Plus?
Apple Pay is largely inconsequential with respect to directly contributing to Apple's bottom line, but does strengthen the ecosystem which helps sell more iPhones, and will help too with the Watch sales.
I have to disagree. ApplePay is what puts the company right in the middle of getting a slice of one of the largest markets in the world: retails sales. It will not mature for another couple of years. But it is truly a sleeper opportunity.
1) There will likely be plenty of articles to remind your when that event will occur.
2) That's based on their history, but their history also shows Apple changing things up, so they could move the iPhone back to Summer or some other time, even though I don't expect that to occur.
I have to disagree. ApplePay is what puts the company right in the middle of getting a slice of one of the largest markets in the world: retails sales. It will not mature for another couple of years. But it is truly a sleeper opportunity.
The one after that will be health care.
It puts them in the middle, but how much are they really going to earn from the service? It seems to me the fraction they get is small. Not inconsequential since it all counts, but small enough that it won't ever be a blip on their revenue and profit sheets. That said, I have not done the work to see how many electronic payments are made per year + how much is sent from magnetic swipe cards and online card payments today to create a scale of how much they could possibly earn.
No, not really. A $1 trillion valuation is not right around the corner, in tne next few quarters. But two years from now, it's entirely possible, and that will require a steady build of the Watch regardless of how it's initially received and reviewed. Apple Pay is largely inconsequential with respect to directly contributing to Apple's bottom line, but does strengthen the ecosystem which helps sell more iPhones, and will help too with the Watch sales. The biggest driver that will help Apple get to a $1 trillion valuation, in my opinion, will be the ongoing strength of the larger screen iPhone upgrade cycle that kicked off so strongly these past several months. We should see quarter after quarter strong revenue and earnings beats for the remainder of Apple's 2015 fiscal year, during which the Watch and Apple's deal with IBM will have time to get their legs under them. Also during which we should see significant progress on the growth of the HealthKit, HomeKit, and CarPlay ecosystems.
Incidentally, based on the iPhone's release history, when will we see the appearance of the 6S and 6S Plus?
I have to disagree. ApplePay is what puts the company right in the middle of getting a slice of one of the largest markets in the world: retails sales. It will not mature for another couple of years. But it is truly a sleeper opportunity.
The one after that will be health care.
It puts them in the middle, but how much are they really going to earn from the service? It seems to me the fraction they get is small. Not inconsequential since it all counts, but small enough that it won't ever be a blip on their revenue and profit sheets. That said, I have not done the work to see how many electronic payments are made per year + how much is sent from magnetic swipe cards and online card payments today to create a scale of how much they could possibly earn.
Numbers I've seen (can't find the cites now) say that there are about 15B credit card worldwide, expected to grow to 20B in a couple of years. It is estimated that people make on average a dozen transactions per card, so figure 240B credit transactions per yer by 2017. Not sure what share Apple can aspire to as the middleman, and what it could earn as revenue per transaction. I think it could be significant.
Global retail spending is likely close to $25 trillion this year.
Numbers I've seen (can't find the cites now) say that there are about 15B credit card worldwide, expected to grow to 20B in a couple of years. It is estimated that people make on average a dozen transactions per card, so figure 240B credit transactions per yer by 2017. Not sure what share Apple can aspire to as the middleman, and what it could earn as revenue per transaction. I think it could be significant.
Global retail spending is likely close to $25 trillion this year.
At $25 trillion per year and the rumoured 0.15% (15¢ per $100) isn't that $37 billion in revenue? And I assume that number is for all retail, regardless of payment. Apple did over $180 billion last year.
Numbers I've seen (can't find the cites now) say that there are about 15B credit card worldwide, expected to grow to 20B in a couple of years. It is estimated that people make on average a dozen transactions per card, so figure 240B credit transactions per yer by 2017. Not sure what share Apple can aspire to as the middleman, and what it could earn as revenue per transaction. I think it could be significant.
Global retail spending is likely close to $25 trillion this year.
At $25 trillion per year and the rumoured 0.15% (15¢ per $100) isn't that $37 billion in revenue? And I assume that number is for all retail, regardless of payment. Apple did over $180 billion last year.
Yep.
And no doubt, five years later, it will rise from $37 billion to $370 billion. That will mean an extra $160 billion profit, no doubt about it. Then, five years later, $3.7 trillion revenue for $1.6 trillion profit a year.
So you admit you're no expert, yet proclaim you 'know' it's not safe to buy any one stock or be heavily invested in one or a handful, even though Buffett does just that. It's most definitely not a waste of time to study individual businesses, how businesses function, and invest in just one or a few businesses and follow closely your investments. You may ha e neither the aptitude nor the time for it, and that's fine for you, but that doesn't make it a waste of time.
What's your point? If the market goes down 30-40%, a diversified basket of stocks will likely get whacked just as hard, or harder, than Apple. Apple did go down more than 40% in the nine month period from Sept 21, 2012 through June 30, 2013. I, for one, held through that period, and have since recouped all of the drop in my portfolio value and climbed higher, having been almost exclusively in Apple. To quote Buffett, "Once you have identified the very best business, how much money would you invest in the second best business? Or the third best? Diversification is for those who don't know what they're doing." Buffett also suggests you shouldn't purchase the shares of a company if you don't have the courage of your conviction that the underlying business is solid, such that you'd not sell even if the stock price dropped 50%. In fact, he says, you'd be happy at having been given an opportunity to purchase more shares at the discounted price.
Side note: Buffet is not a normal investor. He's the guy who said that if he's gone, then his wife's funds will be 90/10 S&P500/bond funds. Most everyone can't take that risk, but if he's widow has 50B in funds or whatever, no sweat off her back. I don't know why he's so concentrated in a few stock funds. Has he said why?
Buffet has teams of people who do his research. He's not out there himself shaking down companies. He's doing due diligence.
Really, you can compare yourself to him? You don't have the money or assets or organization that can go out and do what he does.
He's not like you or me. He doesn't sit at home in his free time and read the WSJ and other rags to figure out what to do.
Please, tell me otherwise. Buffet is awesome, but we are not equal to him in his situation.
Side note: Buffet is not a normal investor. He's the guy who said that if he's gone, then his wife's funds will be 90/10 S&P500/bond funds. Most everyone can't take that risk, but if he's widow has 50B in funds or whatever, no sweat off her back. I don't know why he's so concentrated in a few stock funds. Has he said why?
Buffet has teams of people who do his research. He's not out there himself shaking down companies. He's doing due diligence.
Really, you can compare yourself to him? You don't have the money or assets or organization that can go out and do what he does.
He's not like you or me. He doesn't sit at home in his free time and read the WSJ and other rags to figure out what to do.
Please, tell me otherwise. Buffet is awesome, but we are not equal to him in his situation.
Not every decision by Buffet is golden... Remember BYD? That hasn't exactly taken the electric car market by storm.
Comments
So you admit you're no expert, yet proclaim you 'know' it's not safe to buy any one stock or be heavily invested in one or a handful, even though Buffett does just that. It's most definitely not a waste of time to study individual businesses, how businesses function, and invest in just one or a few businesses and follow closely your investments. You may ha e neither the aptitude nor the time for it, and that's fine for you, but that doesn't make it a waste of time.
No, not really. A $1 trillion valuation is not right around the corner, in tne next few quarters. But two years from now, it's entirely possible, and that will require a steady build of the Watch regardless of how it's initially received and reviewed. Apple Pay is largely inconsequential with respect to directly contributing to Apple's bottom line, but does strengthen the ecosystem which helps sell more iPhones, and will help too with the Watch sales. The biggest driver that will help Apple get to a $1 trillion valuation, in my opinion, will be the ongoing strength of the larger screen iPhone upgrade cycle that kicked off so strongly these past several months. We should see quarter after quarter strong revenue and earnings beats for the remainder of Apple's 2015 fiscal year, during which the Watch and Apple's deal with IBM will have time to get their legs under them. Also during which we should see significant progress on the growth of the HealthKit, HomeKit, and CarPlay ecosystems.
Incidentally, based on the iPhone's release history, when will we see the appearance of the 6S and 6S Plus?
Around September, unless you mean leaks.
I have to disagree. ApplePay is what puts the company right in the middle of getting a slice of one of the largest markets in the world: retails sales. It will not mature for another couple of years. But it is truly a sleeper opportunity.
The one after that will be health care.
Thanks. I need to add a reminder to my calendar.
1) There will likely be plenty of articles to remind your when that event will occur.
2) That's based on their history, but their history also shows Apple changing things up, so they could move the iPhone back to Summer or some other time, even though I don't expect that to occur.
It puts them in the middle, but how much are they really going to earn from the service? It seems to me the fraction they get is small. Not inconsequential since it all counts, but small enough that it won't ever be a blip on their revenue and profit sheets. That said, I have not done the work to see how many electronic payments are made per year + how much is sent from magnetic swipe cards and online card payments today to create a scale of how much they could possibly earn.
Either in the spring, summer or autumn.
Numbers I've seen (can't find the cites now) say that there are about 15B credit card worldwide, expected to grow to 20B in a couple of years. It is estimated that people make on average a dozen transactions per card, so figure 240B credit transactions per yer by 2017. Not sure what share Apple can aspire to as the middleman, and what it could earn as revenue per transaction. I think it could be significant.
Global retail spending is likely close to $25 trillion this year.
At $25 trillion per year and the rumoured 0.15% (15¢ per $100) isn't that $37 billion in revenue? And I assume that number is for all retail, regardless of payment. Apple did over $180 billion last year.
Numbers I've seen (can't find the cites now) say that there are about 15B credit card worldwide, expected to grow to 20B in a couple of years. It is estimated that people make on average a dozen transactions per card, so figure 240B credit transactions per yer by 2017. Not sure what share Apple can aspire to as the middleman, and what it could earn as revenue per transaction. I think it could be significant.
Global retail spending is likely close to $25 trillion this year.
At $25 trillion per year and the rumoured 0.15% (15¢ per $100) isn't that $37 billion in revenue? And I assume that number is for all retail, regardless of payment. Apple did over $180 billion last year.
Yep.
And no doubt, five years later, it will rise from $37 billion to $370 billion. That will mean an extra $160 billion profit, no doubt about it. Then, five years later, $3.7 trillion revenue for $1.6 trillion profit a year.
It’s only logical.
See, this is what happens, you lose your memory and get into bets you can’t remember.
Then when 10-year-old twin girls show up at your doorstep and call you daddy you’re all surprised and confused.
What was I talking about?
You bet on Apple to reach $1 trillion market cap by June. So I bet May.
I think you might be closer.
Oh, did I? Well, that was uncharacteristically optimistic. Also unrealistically. Maybe June 2017.
If you did make such a bet on these forums there will be a record of it. I'm sure he's pulling that up right now¡
Oh, I know! It was just a fun bit of banter. I think the shares were shooting up at the time and we were shooting for the sky.
So you admit you're no expert, yet proclaim you 'know' it's not safe to buy any one stock or be heavily invested in one or a handful, even though Buffett does just that. It's most definitely not a waste of time to study individual businesses, how businesses function, and invest in just one or a few businesses and follow closely your investments. You may ha e neither the aptitude nor the time for it, and that's fine for you, but that doesn't make it a waste of time.
Thanks, I was expecting this kind of response.
No need to say more.
What's your point? If the market goes down 30-40%, a diversified basket of stocks will likely get whacked just as hard, or harder, than Apple. Apple did go down more than 40% in the nine month period from Sept 21, 2012 through June 30, 2013. I, for one, held through that period, and have since recouped all of the drop in my portfolio value and climbed higher, having been almost exclusively in Apple. To quote Buffett, "Once you have identified the very best business, how much money would you invest in the second best business? Or the third best? Diversification is for those who don't know what they're doing." Buffett also suggests you shouldn't purchase the shares of a company if you don't have the courage of your conviction that the underlying business is solid, such that you'd not sell even if the stock price dropped 50%. In fact, he says, you'd be happy at having been given an opportunity to purchase more shares at the discounted price.
Side note: Buffet is not a normal investor. He's the guy who said that if he's gone, then his wife's funds will be 90/10 S&P500/bond funds. Most everyone can't take that risk, but if he's widow has 50B in funds or whatever, no sweat off her back. I don't know why he's so concentrated in a few stock funds. Has he said why?
Buffet has teams of people who do his research. He's not out there himself shaking down companies. He's doing due diligence.
Really, you can compare yourself to him? You don't have the money or assets or organization that can go out and do what he does.
He's not like you or me. He doesn't sit at home in his free time and read the WSJ and other rags to figure out what to do.
Please, tell me otherwise. Buffet is awesome, but we are not equal to him in his situation.
Not every decision by Buffet is golden... Remember BYD? That hasn't exactly taken the electric car market by storm.