"A survey conducted by UBS shows that just 13 percent of iPhone users have upgraded to the latest iPhone 6"
This is the latent halo effect: all of those upgraders selling into the used market.
Both my wife and I sold our unlocked AT&T phones via craigslist to new iOS users who were coming from Android. Ironically, both had Samsung phones with cracked screens that they were ditching for the iPhone5.
When they are eligible for new phones, guess what brand they'll be buying?
It's no surprise that the huge pent-up demand for a larger screen iPhone continues to exceed expectations. Between Apple users who have been longing for this and upgrading, and Android users who finally converted due to the larger screen size, make for a potentially historic year for the company. And Tim Cook is finally getting the credit due him.
The quarter following the holidays is always slower, so the numbers won't be nearly as high as they were during Christmas.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark
58 seems kind of high for the after holiday quarter. Then again I thought 60 was high for the holiday quarter. Whatever number it is, it would be frakking amazing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal
Doesn't this quarter factor in Chinese New Year? It's their version of our Christmas season. I expect Apple will have one helluva quarter this year on-par with the last one just on that one piece alone.
Quote:
From the article:
...searches for the iPhone in China are up 115 percent year over year and 7 percent sequentially....
Yup. As Chinese sales ramp up, Apple's on pace to increasingly get two "holiday quarters" in a row going forward...
The quarter following the holidays is always slower, so the numbers won't be nearly as high as they were during Christmas. Anal-ysts will continue to be total clueless douches regardless of how well Apple performs.
Your logic, while sound, doesn't reflect how analysts think or act. It doesn't matter what Apple says, the markets basically penalize Apple's Stock price when the Analysts end up being wrong. Apple can hit their guidance, but if the analysts' wet dream predictions don't come through, the market blames apple, instead of the analyst.
Your logic, while sound, doesn't reflect how analysts think or act. <span style="line-height:1.4em;">It doesn't matter what Apple says, the markets basically penalize Apple's Stock price when the Analysts end up being wrong. Apple can hit their guidance, but if the analysts' wet dream predictions don't come through, the market blames apple, instead of the analyst.</span>
You're quite correct. It's really astounding that, here we have a company that is incredibly accurate and reliable at their own guidance, yet the markets deliberately choose to ignore that information and make up their own nonsense, and then punish them when their bullshit doesn't pan out.
This to me illustrates that the markets are fundamentally broken, or lacking SUBSTANTIAL regulations and monitoring. Also, I believe anyone who wants to be an "analyst" should be licensed, and be forced to provide references for their analysis, otherwise not be allowed to speak at all, let alone guide clients and their finances.
When I read this stuff from analysis it sounds like a huge setup to short the stock. They are over guiding above what Apple has already said. This is the opposite of what they doing to Amazon and Tesla, they are way under estimating their numbers so any improvement is great news so they can spike the stock up.
I totally agree with your assessment of the situation. Wall Street expectations are a dirty and unfair little game to favor some stocks and punish others. At one time it was claimed Apple gave low guidance and then easily beat it, so Wall Street decided to ignore Apple's guidance and set their own expectations. I'm not sure how analysts can figure this stuff out because only Apple would know best what they can sell. How would outsiders know unless they're just guessing? The only thing is, when analysts over-guide Apple it only hurts Apple shareholders. It doesn't matter to Apple because they're pulling in crazy amounts of cash no matter what the analysts say or do. Under-guiding a stock like Amazon is helpful for shareholders because a couple of cents extra profit drives the share price up huge amounts while Amazon is barely profitable.
It's a crook's game but nothing can be proven. All it shows is how Apple is on the level due to a huge market cap with a conservative P/E. Amazon and Netflix's P/Es are off the chart and that's not right at all. Their market caps are being inflated by their outrageous P/Es. Facebook's P/E is totally out of whack. Where's the value of that company being stashed? Their EPS is crap. There just doesn't seem to be any unified guidelines of value. It's just arbitrarily assigned as someone sees fit to benefit from it. Standard fundamentals simply don't apply to certain high share price companies which makes no sense at all. Assigning high future value to companies is ridiculous because anything can happen to stop that value from being met.
Comments
So far each new iPhone outsells its predecessor.
This is the latent halo effect: all of those upgraders selling into the used market.
Both my wife and I sold our unlocked AT&T phones via craigslist to new iOS users who were coming from Android. Ironically, both had Samsung phones with cracked screens that they were ditching for the iPhone5.
When they are eligible for new phones, guess what brand they'll be buying?
The quarter following the holidays is always slower, so the numbers won't be nearly as high as they were during Christmas.
58 seems kind of high for the after holiday quarter. Then again I thought 60 was high for the holiday quarter. Whatever number it is, it would be frakking amazing.
Doesn't this quarter factor in Chinese New Year? It's their version of our Christmas season. I expect Apple will have one helluva quarter this year on-par with the last one just on that one piece alone.
Yup. As Chinese sales ramp up, Apple's on pace to increasingly get two "holiday quarters" in a row going forward...
The quarter following the holidays is always slower, so the numbers won't be nearly as high as they were during Christmas. Anal-ysts will continue to be total clueless douches regardless of how well Apple performs.
Your logic, while sound, doesn't reflect how analysts think or act. It doesn't matter what Apple says, the markets basically penalize Apple's Stock price when the Analysts end up being wrong. Apple can hit their guidance, but if the analysts' wet dream predictions don't come through, the market blames apple, instead of the analyst.
This to me illustrates that the markets are fundamentally broken, or lacking SUBSTANTIAL regulations and monitoring. Also, I believe anyone who wants to be an "analyst" should be licensed, and be forced to provide references for their analysis, otherwise not be allowed to speak at all, let alone guide clients and their finances.
When I read this stuff from analysis it sounds like a huge setup to short the stock. They are over guiding above what Apple has already said. This is the opposite of what they doing to Amazon and Tesla, they are way under estimating their numbers so any improvement is great news so they can spike the stock up.
I totally agree with your assessment of the situation. Wall Street expectations are a dirty and unfair little game to favor some stocks and punish others. At one time it was claimed Apple gave low guidance and then easily beat it, so Wall Street decided to ignore Apple's guidance and set their own expectations. I'm not sure how analysts can figure this stuff out because only Apple would know best what they can sell. How would outsiders know unless they're just guessing? The only thing is, when analysts over-guide Apple it only hurts Apple shareholders. It doesn't matter to Apple because they're pulling in crazy amounts of cash no matter what the analysts say or do. Under-guiding a stock like Amazon is helpful for shareholders because a couple of cents extra profit drives the share price up huge amounts while Amazon is barely profitable.
It's a crook's game but nothing can be proven. All it shows is how Apple is on the level due to a huge market cap with a conservative P/E. Amazon and Netflix's P/Es are off the chart and that's not right at all. Their market caps are being inflated by their outrageous P/Es. Facebook's P/E is totally out of whack. Where's the value of that company being stashed? Their EPS is crap. There just doesn't seem to be any unified guidelines of value. It's just arbitrarily assigned as someone sees fit to benefit from it. Standard fundamentals simply don't apply to certain high share price companies which makes no sense at all. Assigning high future value to companies is ridiculous because anything can happen to stop that value from being met.