It's imposible to read the entire research note unless you are a UBS customer, so it is unclear precisely what he's referring to as an "s cycle." An "s-curve" is a term in economics referring to a product's growth cycle, so this is what he may well be referencing. In any case, from what I've been able to find online, his research note discusses the pressure on margins that Apple (and any other company heavily dependent on overseas sales) will be experiencing due to the rapid appreciation of the US dollar. In spite of this Milunovich is one of the more bullish analysts on Apple Watch (if not this year than next) and has set one of the highest AAPL target prices among the analysts who cover Apple. But he must be clueless. Because, you know.
Good point. The strength of the U.S. dollar is a significant factor for sure, which certainly will impact forecasts for any domestic companies that derive significant revenues abroad. I was thinking about the "s cycle" with respect to iPhone models. The 3GS, 4S and 5S all followed the 3, 4 and 5 by about a year, and all were regarded as refinements to their class. The S models all had excellent receptions, but generally did not represent such near-revolutionary advancements. Milunovich probably wouldn't consider a 6S as spurring a big leap in sales over a 6 or a 6 Plus, but he'd be much more impressed when a 7 is introduced with a significant upgrade in capabilities. (Side note: If a 6S had a similar form factor as my current 5S, the size would appeal to me. I prefer a slightly smaller phone to the 6 and 6 Plus.)
Good point. The strength of the U.S. dollar is a significant factor for sure, which certainly will impact forecasts for any domestic companies that derive significant revenues abroad. I was thinking about the "s cycle" with respect to iPhone models. The 3GS, 4S and 5S all followed the 3, 4 and 5 by about a year, and all were regarded as refinements to their class. The S models all had excellent receptions, but generally did not represent such near-revolutionary advancements. Milunovich probably wouldn't consider a 6S as spurring a big leap in sales over a 6 or a 6 Plus, but he'd be much more impressed when a 7 is introduced with a significant upgrade in capabilities. (Side note: If a 6S had a similar form factor as my current 5S, the size would appeal to me. I prefer a slightly smaller phone to the 6 and 6 Plus.)
He could mean that, I really don't know. But then, neither can anyone else, given the fragments of information we are given. It's the generic "clueless analyst" thing that gets really old, especially coming from people who really have no idea what he is actually saying, nor do they seem to care. It's ironic in this case. Of the firms covering Apple, UBS is one of the more bullish on their future earnings.
... It's the generic "clueless analyst" thing that gets really old, especially coming from people who really have no idea what he is actually saying, nor do they seem to care ...
Agreed. Don't confuse such people with the facts. They can be described as "clueless about analysts."
Good point. The strength of the U.S. dollar is a significant factor for sure, which certainly will impact forecasts for any domestic companies that derive significant revenues abroad. I was thinking about the "s cycle" with respect to iPhone models. The 3GS, 4S and 5S all followed the 3, 4 and 5 by about a year, and all were regarded as refinements to their class. The S models all had excellent receptions, but generally did not represent such near-revolutionary advancements. Milunovich probably wouldn't consider a 6S as spurring a big leap in sales over a 6 or a 6 Plus, but he'd be much more impressed when a 7 is introduced with a significant upgrade in capabilities. (Side note: If a 6S had a similar form factor as my current 5S, the size would appeal to me. I prefer a slightly smaller phone to the 6 and 6 Plus.)
The 3GS was a very marked improvement on the 3G, S was for speed supposedly and it showed. I still use it 6.5 years later. A Iphone 3G would have been retired 3 years ago. The watch as a product is much more refined than the first Iphone was (because Apple has a lot more expertise and resources in precision large scale manufacturing, integrating many technologies and massive software projects.
He could mean that, I really don't know. But then, neither can anyone else, given the fragments of information we are given. It's the generic "clueless analyst" thing that gets really old, especially coming from people who really have no idea what he is actually saying, nor do they seem to care. It's ironic in this case. Of the firms covering Apple, UBS is one of the more bullish on their future earnings.
Analysts are defined as clueless by me as a group because the seeming perfunctory nature of their "analysis"; declarations often of absent logic! I'm not even talking about UBS... They may be the exception, who knows :-).
Maybe the analysts' evaluation makes sense to their target audience' objectives and agenda (risk vs reward and all that) ; they certainly rarely make sense to me.
Analysts are defined as clueless by me as a group because the seeming perfunctory nature of their "analysis"; declarations often of absent logic! I'm not even talking about UBS... They may be the exception, who knows :-).
Maybe the analysts' evaluation makes sense to their target audience' objectives and agenda (risk vs reward and all that) ; they certainly rarely make sense to me.
I just made this point in another thread, so not to repeat entirely, but the analysts are writing these reports as advice to their own clients. That is their target audience. Normally we don't even see the complete report if we are not clients of that company, just snippets or hot phrases quoted in a media report. Sound bytes should not be expected to make much sense. They are certainly nothing to get all worked up about.
The question is how many current iPhone 6 owners will upgrade to the 6s?
Actually, I don't think that is the question at all. There will always be some people who upgrade every year but their numbers are fairly small. The question is whether the 5S crowd are going to do the usual biennial upgrade or decide that their current phone is good for another year and buy something else with the money they save - funnily enough, there's this watch thing just come out that will work with the 5S...
I'll almost certainly be upgrading my 4S this time around...
Actually, I don't think that is the question at all. There will always be some people who upgrade every year but their numbers are fairly small. The question is whether the 5S crowd are going to do the usual biennial upgrade or decide that their current phone is good for another year and buy something else with the money they save - funnily enough, there's this watch thing just come out that will work with the 5S...
I'll almost certainly be upgrading my 4S this time around...
Except that's assuming that the 5s crowd didn't already upgrade.
The question is whether the 5S crowd are going to do the usual biennial upgrade or decide that their current phone is good for another year and buy something else with the money they save - funnily enough, there's this watch thing just come out that will work with the 5S...
When you already have a great phone like the 5S it's not really urgent to upgrade... because the distraction of gazing at a brand new Apple Watch fills that empty space in your heart. :-)
Comments
It's imposible to read the entire research note unless you are a UBS customer, so it is unclear precisely what he's referring to as an "s cycle." An "s-curve" is a term in economics referring to a product's growth cycle, so this is what he may well be referencing. In any case, from what I've been able to find online, his research note discusses the pressure on margins that Apple (and any other company heavily dependent on overseas sales) will be experiencing due to the rapid appreciation of the US dollar. In spite of this Milunovich is one of the more bullish analysts on Apple Watch (if not this year than next) and has set one of the highest AAPL target prices among the analysts who cover Apple. But he must be clueless. Because, you know.
Good point. The strength of the U.S. dollar is a significant factor for sure, which certainly will impact forecasts for any domestic companies that derive significant revenues abroad. I was thinking about the "s cycle" with respect to iPhone models. The 3GS, 4S and 5S all followed the 3, 4 and 5 by about a year, and all were regarded as refinements to their class. The S models all had excellent receptions, but generally did not represent such near-revolutionary advancements. Milunovich probably wouldn't consider a 6S as spurring a big leap in sales over a 6 or a 6 Plus, but he'd be much more impressed when a 7 is introduced with a significant upgrade in capabilities. (Side note: If a 6S had a similar form factor as my current 5S, the size would appeal to me. I prefer a slightly smaller phone to the 6 and 6 Plus.)
Good point. The strength of the U.S. dollar is a significant factor for sure, which certainly will impact forecasts for any domestic companies that derive significant revenues abroad. I was thinking about the "s cycle" with respect to iPhone models. The 3GS, 4S and 5S all followed the 3, 4 and 5 by about a year, and all were regarded as refinements to their class. The S models all had excellent receptions, but generally did not represent such near-revolutionary advancements. Milunovich probably wouldn't consider a 6S as spurring a big leap in sales over a 6 or a 6 Plus, but he'd be much more impressed when a 7 is introduced with a significant upgrade in capabilities. (Side note: If a 6S had a similar form factor as my current 5S, the size would appeal to me. I prefer a slightly smaller phone to the 6 and 6 Plus.)
He could mean that, I really don't know. But then, neither can anyone else, given the fragments of information we are given. It's the generic "clueless analyst" thing that gets really old, especially coming from people who really have no idea what he is actually saying, nor do they seem to care. It's ironic in this case. Of the firms covering Apple, UBS is one of the more bullish on their future earnings.
... It's the generic "clueless analyst" thing that gets really old, especially coming from people who really have no idea what he is actually saying, nor do they seem to care ...
Agreed. Don't confuse such people with the facts. They can be described as "clueless about analysts."
Good point. The strength of the U.S. dollar is a significant factor for sure, which certainly will impact forecasts for any domestic companies that derive significant revenues abroad. I was thinking about the "s cycle" with respect to iPhone models. The 3GS, 4S and 5S all followed the 3, 4 and 5 by about a year, and all were regarded as refinements to their class. The S models all had excellent receptions, but generally did not represent such near-revolutionary advancements. Milunovich probably wouldn't consider a 6S as spurring a big leap in sales over a 6 or a 6 Plus, but he'd be much more impressed when a 7 is introduced with a significant upgrade in capabilities. (Side note: If a 6S had a similar form factor as my current 5S, the size would appeal to me. I prefer a slightly smaller phone to the 6 and 6 Plus.)
The 3GS was a very marked improvement on the 3G, S was for speed supposedly and it showed. I still use it 6.5 years later. A Iphone 3G would have been retired 3 years ago. The watch as a product is much more refined than the first Iphone was (because Apple has a lot more expertise and resources in precision large scale manufacturing, integrating many technologies and massive software projects.
He could mean that, I really don't know. But then, neither can anyone else, given the fragments of information we are given. It's the generic "clueless analyst" thing that gets really old, especially coming from people who really have no idea what he is actually saying, nor do they seem to care. It's ironic in this case. Of the firms covering Apple, UBS is one of the more bullish on their future earnings.
Analysts are defined as clueless by me as a group because the seeming perfunctory nature of their "analysis"; declarations often of absent logic! I'm not even talking about UBS... They may be the exception, who knows :-).
Maybe the analysts' evaluation makes sense to their target audience' objectives and agenda (risk vs reward and all that) ; they certainly rarely make sense to me.
Analysts are defined as clueless by me as a group because the seeming perfunctory nature of their "analysis"; declarations often of absent logic! I'm not even talking about UBS... They may be the exception, who knows :-).
Maybe the analysts' evaluation makes sense to their target audience' objectives and agenda (risk vs reward and all that) ; they certainly rarely make sense to me.
I just made this point in another thread, so not to repeat entirely, but the analysts are writing these reports as advice to their own clients. That is their target audience. Normally we don't even see the complete report if we are not clients of that company, just snippets or hot phrases quoted in a media report. Sound bytes should not be expected to make much sense. They are certainly nothing to get all worked up about.
I will.
As long as the resale market stays strong I don't see a reason not to.
The question is how many current iPhone 6 owners will upgrade to the 6s?
Actually, I don't think that is the question at all. There will always be some people who upgrade every year but their numbers are fairly small. The question is whether the 5S crowd are going to do the usual biennial upgrade or decide that their current phone is good for another year and buy something else with the money they save - funnily enough, there's this watch thing just come out that will work with the 5S...
I'll almost certainly be upgrading my 4S this time around...
Except that's assuming that the 5s crowd didn't already upgrade.
Aaaaah ???? I was telling my body the same thing! I think they migh
The question is whether the 5S crowd are going to do the usual biennial upgrade or decide that their current phone is good for another year and buy something else with the money they save - funnily enough, there's this watch thing just come out that will work with the 5S...
When you already have a great phone like the 5S it's not really urgent to upgrade... because the distraction of gazing at a brand new Apple Watch fills that empty space in your heart. :-)
Funny. But I think true.
I bet there are more 2 yr upgraders than 1 yr upgraders. So of course there are 5S users waiting for the 6s.