The most potentially interesting result of this survey isn't clearly described: the number of potential Apple Watch buyers who don't already own an iPhone. As close as they come is: "Among those polled who do not own an iPhone, 8 percent said they would consider switching to an iPhone in order to purchase an Apple Watch." If Apple Watch drives iPhone sales significantly, the revenue generated by Apple Watch might turn out to be underestimated.
Doubt it. Don't get me wrong, I think it will do very well,...
Yes, much of the popular wisdom echos your sentiment. I really don't know what the Apple Watch will do. Does anyone?
But, I remember when Microsoft had the funeral for the iPhone. By then the potential of the iPhone was starting to show. And, as you pointed out, this is the first generation. I keep seeing parallels with the iPhone. Perhaps I should ask forgiveness for that. But, it rings loud in my mind.
I am still struck by the word "watch." Just like the iPhone, everyone latched onto "phone." We all knew what a phone was. So, we bought the iPHONE. Not the iPutItInMyPocketComputer. I hold an open mind on this. I'm not going to disagree with you at all. I'm just seeing all the similarities. There are watches galore now. There are numerous "Smart Watches" now.
This time, though, the third party app pipeline is already active.
I think the gender difference is interesting, but hard to interpret. My impression is that males are more likely to be early adopters of new technology than females. But longer term the females catch up IF the product proves worthwhile. Basically, the females take longer to convince that it's a good product, but if it is a good product, then they'll eventually buy it just as much as males do.
To account for that early adopter gender split phenomenon, it would be interesting to see the gender breakdown for people buying Android smartwatches. My guess is that those buyers are > 90% male.
Does anyone think this third party stuff showing up on Amazon is actually good quality? I'm skeptical.
I ordered two, so will know by early May. If they turn out to be no good, will be returning them of course. For half the price though, it's worth a try. I realize I may end up ordering a black band directly from Apple.
I think the gender difference is interesting, but hard to interpret. My impression is that males are more likely to be early adopters of new technology than females. But longer term the females catch up IF the product proves worthwhile. Basically, the females take longer to convince that it's a good product, but if it is a good product, then they'll eventually buy it just as much as males do.
To account for that early adopter gender split phenomenon, it would be interesting to see the gender breakdown for people buying Android smartwatches. My guess is that those buyers are > 90% male.
To me, the look of the actual watch (as opposed to the customizable bands) slants a little towards the masculine rather than the feminine, even though there is a version of the watch that is smaller. It's just going to be harder to sell the "fashionable" aspect of the ?Watch to a certain percentage of women (I don't know what that percentage is, so don't ask). For example, my wife adorns herself with all kinds of accessories when we go out on the town. Earrings, rings, hair extensions, watches, bracelets, necklaces, etc, etc. These things all vary according to taste for the evening, and I know for a fact that wearing the ?Watch would clash with a significant fraction of her "themes". As such, I doubt my wife sees herself as a candidate for an ?Watch. My hunch is that her feelings will change if, and only if, the use cases that I discover and demonstrate intersect with some quality of life issue that she values. Maybe this observation transfers to other women.
I think the gender difference is interesting, but hard to interpret. My impression is that males are more likely to be early adopters of new technology than females. But longer term the females catch up IF the product proves worthwhile. Basically, the females take longer to convince that it's a good product, but if it is a good product, then they'll eventually buy it just as much as males do.
To account for that early adopter gender split phenomenon, it would be interesting to see the gender breakdown for people buying Android smartwatches. My guess is that those buyers are > 90% male.
Funny, I was told on another forum that the 38mm Apple Watch was totally girly and/or suitable for children only, and no Real Man would be caught dead wearing one.
I was going to say that Benny Frost is probably spinning in his troll chair over this survey but he hasn’t been here in almost two weeks. I think maybe he gave up on us.
Allow me to introduce you to the concept of sampling, used for everything from opinion polling to the US Census. It's perfectly valid to extrapolate from a sample, provided that the sample is properly stratified.
[bold emphasis mine]
I think this is the crux of the matter – is the survey properly performed? I haven't been able to find the actual survey methodology, so I don't know. As I understand, Ipsos is a paid survey service, so that may also skew the results (i.e. are the people who take online surveys for money a representative sample of the population?).
Does anyone think this third party stuff showing up on Amazon is actually good quality? I'm skeptical.
I’m always amazed by some Apple customers. They spend the money for a premium product and then go cheap on substandard cables and accessories that wind up damaging their premium hardware. They buy a $5 power adapter and it fries their Mac. Of course they then blame Apple for their issues. Happens almost every day on the Apple discussion forums.
So Apple will sell 2.2X more smart watches in eight months than all other manufactures combined did in 2014. Yup, Apple sure has a flop on their hands.
Allow me to introduce you to the concept of sampling, used for everything from opinion polling to the US Census. It's perfectly valid to extrapolate from a sample, provided that the sample is properly stratified.
Correct you are... The critical selection rule that determines accuracy is the poll must be 'random.'
No matter what the sample size, the results are garbage if the subjects are not selected randomly.... Which I am sure Reuters understands the importance of that methodology.
(I was not the best college student, but I did get an A in my Intro Probability course.)
Does anyone think this third party stuff showing up on Amazon is actually good quality? I'm skeptical.
I'm surprised we haven't heard anything about Apple's licensing policies, or any potential licensees. They surely have a patent on that band connection mechanism, and as such, anybody knocking it off can be easily thwarted. I guess I feel like if these bands were legitimate, we'd have heard something by now. If they're knock-offs, considering Apple could probably shut them down quickly enough, my guess is they'd be a money grab and not very high quality. Apple's already shut down one kickstarter effort to make a universal band replacement connector.
So I had a try-on appointment yesterday. My store is not located in a teeming metropolis, but it's big enough.
Yesterday, at least, the appointment would not have been necessary. One of the large tables had been converted into four watch try-on stations, and across from it, another table had most of the permutations set up to view, in both sizes. Including the Editions.
Like others, I took pics of my choices alongside my daily driver, and, like others, the resulting pictures don't adequately convey how GREAT these models look and feel in person.
Someone here (days ago) described the taptic feel as a "buzz"... they couldn't be more wrong. The description of a "tap" is quite apt. Tap your wrist with your index finger semi-firmly, and that's pretty close to how this feels.
The digital crown is so smooth... you know how, turning some analog dials, you can sense some occasional gear friction? None of that here, nor any detente feel (which I was half expecting). And it's not so free-spinning that it could slip accidentally. Seems like the team got the feel of this just perfectly.
In terms of case appearance, the Sport seems reminiscent of say, a really high-end Casio, or a low-to-medium range Seiko. But that Stainless is another matter: that is really, really nice (and don't get me started on the black SS, wow). I could live with ANY of the straps, they were all exceedingly comfortable to wear.
My assistant was appropriately enthusiastic about the product (without going overboard), and quick to assist in getting the watches on and off my wrist. And he was exceedingly patient with all my questions. (He confirmed that, even here, several pre-orders for the Edition had already been processed there in the store. Wow.)
By the way, when he demonstrated changing the straps, he went out of the way to point out the diagnostic interface (hidden pins). Not sure why, except that I may have telegraphed my geekiness in advance.
The only thing that bothered me even a little was registering the double tap of the side button to wake the demo display. I had trouble with both the timing of the taps, and had to be patient for the wakeup to occur. There was about a full second between the double tap, and for the display to appear. I'm sure that I would get used to both in short order, but for something that's designed to be used in mere seconds, I was expecting at least the wakeup responsiveness of my 4S. The fact that it was initiating a demo may have had something to do with it. The functional (nonwearable) example were appropriately snappy from the home screen, though, and within the native apps.
One final personal "thing"... it was obvious that the 38 had the right proportions for my particular wrist; and yet, the 42 had the display size for these aging eyes. I will have to compromise, somewhere along the way.
I think this is the crux of the matter – is the survey properly performed? I haven't been able to find the actual survey methodology, so I don't know. As I understand, Ipsos is a paid survey service, so that may also skew the results (i.e. are the people who take online surveys for money a representative sample of the population?).
The article mentions a margin of error cited by the survey company, so it sounds like they were using a statistical method. In any case I would not assume that it's a bogus result.
Comments
The most potentially interesting result of this survey isn't clearly described: the number of potential Apple Watch buyers who don't already own an iPhone. As close as they come is: "Among those polled who do not own an iPhone, 8 percent said they would consider switching to an iPhone in order to purchase an Apple Watch." If Apple Watch drives iPhone sales significantly, the revenue generated by Apple Watch might turn out to be underestimated.
Doubt it. Don't get me wrong, I think it will do very well,...
Yes, much of the popular wisdom echos your sentiment. I really don't know what the Apple Watch will do. Does anyone?
But, I remember when Microsoft had the funeral for the iPhone. By then the potential of the iPhone was starting to show. And, as you pointed out, this is the first generation. I keep seeing parallels with the iPhone. Perhaps I should ask forgiveness for that. But, it rings loud in my mind.
I am still struck by the word "watch." Just like the iPhone, everyone latched onto "phone." We all knew what a phone was. So, we bought the iPHONE. Not the iPutItInMyPocketComputer. I hold an open mind on this. I'm not going to disagree with you at all. I'm just seeing all the similarities. There are watches galore now. There are numerous "Smart Watches" now.
This time, though, the third party app pipeline is already active.
I think the gender difference is interesting, but hard to interpret. My impression is that males are more likely to be early adopters of new technology than females. But longer term the females catch up IF the product proves worthwhile. Basically, the females take longer to convince that it's a good product, but if it is a good product, then they'll eventually buy it just as much as males do.
To account for that early adopter gender split phenomenon, it would be interesting to see the gender breakdown for people buying Android smartwatches. My guess is that those buyers are > 90% male.
I ordered two, so will know by early May. If they turn out to be no good, will be returning them of course. For half the price though, it's worth a try. I realize I may end up ordering a black band directly from Apple.
I think the gender difference is interesting, but hard to interpret. My impression is that males are more likely to be early adopters of new technology than females. But longer term the females catch up IF the product proves worthwhile. Basically, the females take longer to convince that it's a good product, but if it is a good product, then they'll eventually buy it just as much as males do.
To account for that early adopter gender split phenomenon, it would be interesting to see the gender breakdown for people buying Android smartwatches. My guess is that those buyers are > 90% male.
To me, the look of the actual watch (as opposed to the customizable bands) slants a little towards the masculine rather than the feminine, even though there is a version of the watch that is smaller. It's just going to be harder to sell the "fashionable" aspect of the ?Watch to a certain percentage of women (I don't know what that percentage is, so don't ask). For example, my wife adorns herself with all kinds of accessories when we go out on the town. Earrings, rings, hair extensions, watches, bracelets, necklaces, etc, etc. These things all vary according to taste for the evening, and I know for a fact that wearing the ?Watch would clash with a significant fraction of her "themes". As such, I doubt my wife sees herself as a candidate for an ?Watch. My hunch is that her feelings will change if, and only if, the use cases that I discover and demonstrate intersect with some quality of life issue that she values. Maybe this observation transfers to other women.
Does anyone think this third party stuff showing up on Amazon is actually good quality? I'm skeptical.
They are made by the finest Chinese knockoff shops, so how dare you.
I think the gender difference is interesting, but hard to interpret. My impression is that males are more likely to be early adopters of new technology than females. But longer term the females catch up IF the product proves worthwhile. Basically, the females take longer to convince that it's a good product, but if it is a good product, then they'll eventually buy it just as much as males do.
To account for that early adopter gender split phenomenon, it would be interesting to see the gender breakdown for people buying Android smartwatches. My guess is that those buyers are > 90% male.
Funny, I was told on another forum that the 38mm Apple Watch was totally girly and/or suitable for children only, and no Real Man would be caught dead wearing one.
I think (hope) he was being sarcastic.
I was going to say that Benny Frost is probably spinning in his troll chair over this survey but he hasn’t been here in almost two weeks. I think maybe he gave up on us.
Allow me to introduce you to the concept of sampling, used for everything from opinion polling to the US Census. It's perfectly valid to extrapolate from a sample, provided that the sample is properly stratified.
[bold emphasis mine]
I think this is the crux of the matter – is the survey properly performed? I haven't been able to find the actual survey methodology, so I don't know. As I understand, Ipsos is a paid survey service, so that may also skew the results (i.e. are the people who take online surveys for money a representative sample of the population?).
Does anyone think this third party stuff showing up on Amazon is actually good quality? I'm skeptical.
I’m always amazed by some Apple customers. They spend the money for a premium product and then go cheap on substandard cables and accessories that wind up damaging their premium hardware. They buy a $5 power adapter and it fries their Mac. Of course they then blame Apple for their issues. Happens almost every day on the Apple discussion forums.
What?...Microsoft's Fitness Band, Samsung's watch entries? The competitor's who dropped their prices to clearance?... Which one is a flop???
Personally, even if I had something to monitor, I'd just want an iPhone-trigger alarm when something got out of normal.
Correct you are... The critical selection rule that determines accuracy is the poll must be 'random.'
No matter what the sample size, the results are garbage if the subjects are not selected randomly.... Which I am sure Reuters understands the importance of that methodology.
(I was not the best college student, but I did get an A in my Intro Probability course.)
BF would have given his posts a like. Heck, all the naysayers for that matter.
Does anyone think this third party stuff showing up on Amazon is actually good quality? I'm skeptical.
I'm surprised we haven't heard anything about Apple's licensing policies, or any potential licensees. They surely have a patent on that band connection mechanism, and as such, anybody knocking it off can be easily thwarted. I guess I feel like if these bands were legitimate, we'd have heard something by now. If they're knock-offs, considering Apple could probably shut them down quickly enough, my guess is they'd be a money grab and not very high quality. Apple's already shut down one kickstarter effort to make a universal band replacement connector.
So I had a try-on appointment yesterday. My store is not located in a teeming metropolis, but it's big enough.
Yesterday, at least, the appointment would not have been necessary. One of the large tables had been converted into four watch try-on stations, and across from it, another table had most of the permutations set up to view, in both sizes. Including the Editions.
Like others, I took pics of my choices alongside my daily driver, and, like others, the resulting pictures don't adequately convey how GREAT these models look and feel in person.
Someone here (days ago) described the taptic feel as a "buzz"... they couldn't be more wrong. The description of a "tap" is quite apt. Tap your wrist with your index finger semi-firmly, and that's pretty close to how this feels.
The digital crown is so smooth... you know how, turning some analog dials, you can sense some occasional gear friction? None of that here, nor any detente feel (which I was half expecting). And it's not so free-spinning that it could slip accidentally. Seems like the team got the feel of this just perfectly.
In terms of case appearance, the Sport seems reminiscent of say, a really high-end Casio, or a low-to-medium range Seiko. But that Stainless is another matter: that is really, really nice (and don't get me started on the black SS, wow). I could live with ANY of the straps, they were all exceedingly comfortable to wear.
My assistant was appropriately enthusiastic about the product (without going overboard), and quick to assist in getting the watches on and off my wrist. And he was exceedingly patient with all my questions. (He confirmed that, even here, several pre-orders for the Edition had already been processed there in the store. Wow.)
By the way, when he demonstrated changing the straps, he went out of the way to point out the diagnostic interface (hidden pins). Not sure why, except that I may have telegraphed my geekiness in advance.
The only thing that bothered me even a little was registering the double tap of the side button to wake the demo display. I had trouble with both the timing of the taps, and had to be patient for the wakeup to occur. There was about a full second between the double tap, and for the display to appear. I'm sure that I would get used to both in short order, but for something that's designed to be used in mere seconds, I was expecting at least the wakeup responsiveness of my 4S. The fact that it was initiating a demo may have had something to do with it. The functional (nonwearable) example were appropriately snappy from the home screen, though, and within the native apps.
One final personal "thing"... it was obvious that the 38 had the right proportions for my particular wrist; and yet, the 42 had the display size for these aging eyes. I will have to compromise, somewhere along the way.
And I have to get a newer phone, too, haha...
[redacted]
[bold emphasis mine]
I think this is the crux of the matter – is the survey properly performed? I haven't been able to find the actual survey methodology, so I don't know. As I understand, Ipsos is a paid survey service, so that may also skew the results (i.e. are the people who take online surveys for money a representative sample of the population?).
The article mentions a margin of error cited by the survey company, so it sounds like they were using a statistical method. In any case I would not assume that it's a bogus result.