Apple sells 47.5M iPhones in record-breaking Q3, revenue jumps 33% to $49.6B

1457910

Comments

  • Reply 121 of 187
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member
    sog35 wrote: »
    What?  The analyist do have estimated numbers for Q4

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-logs-q3-beat--but-q4-sales-outlook-disappoints--204759056.html

    "However, Apple's current-quarter revenue outlook of $49 billion to $51 billion, came in on the low end of the FactSet Research Systems consensus of $50.9 billion."

    So in other words Apple's high guidance was a little bit higher than analysist prediction. None of the analysist were predicting 30% revenue growth for Q4

    Yes, they do, and it's not an exact number, it's a best guess. They do t look at the 33% from this quarter, and think that it should be 33% again. But they would be expected to think that it would come closer to that then 20% does. So they're unhappy.

    What they want to see, and really, you have to remember that I'm not agreeing that what they do is the right way, but it is the way, is Apple's guidance fall evenly around the consensus. So they would have preferred it to have been $50.4 to $51.3.

    Does it make any sense? Not really, but that's what they expect. I'd bet that if Apple did guide that way today, they wouldn't have lost $8 off the share price.

    And please, don't ascribe the statements I make about the way things are done to how I think about it. You're flaming the messenger here.
  • Reply 122 of 187
    sumergosumergo Posts: 215member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post

     



    I've done well because I've resisted that "sell some and realize your gains" argument. If I had done that, I would have considerably less of it now.




    I'm glad that you feel you have done well by resisting the "sell some and realize your gains argument", but what have you actually got in your pocket for all this hypothetical value?  Nothing.

     

    If AAPL tanks tomorrow - and it could happen - you will have considerably less of it then.

     

    The stock market is not a secured investment plan, it is a casino.  Take your chips and leave when you have won.

  • Reply 123 of 187
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Sumergo View Post

     

    The stock market is not a secured investment plan, it is a casino.  Take your chips and leave when you have won.




    Really. I suggest you take a look at an S&P 500 chart over the last 80 years or so and use that as evidence to support your "casino" argument.

  • Reply 124 of 187
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member

    Not just. Reported EPS was only $0.04 over consensus. Anything less than a 10% beat is considered disappointing, not just for Apple but in general. Quarter after quarter you can depend on this but for some reason it's always treated as a huge surprise if not a conspiracy.

    I haven't seen you around for a while. Welcome back.

    Yes, that low beat has also affected the thinking. I remember the days when just being somewhere around the consensus was enough for a stock to rise. Today, if you don't beat, not only the concensus, but the whisper number, you're going to tank.
  • Reply 125 of 187
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     



    Sorry.  But if he listened to your suggestion 5 years ago he would have missed out on hundreds of thousands of dollars.

     

     

    The stock market is only a casino for those who don't know how to invest.  Look at the historic returns of the S&P500 and other broad stock market index's.




    Ah, I think I hear an echo. :)

  • Reply 126 of 187
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member
    sumergo wrote: »

    I'm glad that you feel you have done well by resisting the "sell some and realize your gains argument", b<span style="line-height:1.4em;">ut what have you actually got in your pocket for all this </span>
    hypothetical value?  Nothing.

    If AAPL tanks tomorrow - and it could happen - you will have considerably less of it then.

    The stock market is not a secured investment plan, it is a casino.  Take your chips and leave when you have won.

    Thanks for you sage advice. I've inly been doing this since 1963. Maybe some day I'll learn.
  • Reply 127 of 187
    yojimbo007yojimbo007 Posts: 1,165member
    I demand an SEC investigation.

    There wont be one.. But there should be!


    This kind if bogus games WS charlatans play .. Hurts the credibilty of the market.
  • Reply 128 of 187
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,397member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by melgross View Post



    I posted that link above. It's a good one. Not too complex. Read through it. Do t argue it before you read the whole thing.



    But really, surely you must the arguments for, and against the ration market, or, as some say, the rationality of the investment community. I shouldn't need to present an argument for you you heard it all before.

    It's not a credible link, since it's written by someone who has no expertise in financial markets. He's a health policy guy. I think you're conflating the term 'rational expectations' (which has to with market efficiency, and is a term derived from macroeconomics, due to well-known academics like Muth, Barro et. al) with 'rationality.' A common mistake.

     

    Btw, markets can certainly be inefficient, especially in the short run, and there is a whole school of financial economics known as 'behavioral economics' that attempts to explain why.

     

    If you want to learn more, please take a look at: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/pubs/p1055.pdf

     

    I have no trouble with your throwing around loose terms and definitions (go right ahead!) -- people do it all the time -- but there's a certitude with which you express your opinions about markets that is inconsistent with such looseness.

  • Reply 129 of 187
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by melgross View Post





    I haven't seen you around for a while. Welcome back.



    Yes, that low beat has also affected the thinking. I remember the days when just being somewhere around the consensus was enough for a stock to rise. Today, if you don't beat, not only the concensus, but the whisper number, you're going to tank.



    Thanks, haven't been around much. I think I did see you comment on a MacWorld article recently though.

     

    It is a well known fact of life that the affiliated analysts are conservative in their estimates. Maybe it wasn't always so, but it sure is now. Earnings are expected to beat by a healthy margin. Those expectations get baked into the pie ahead of the announcement. The after-hours markets are probably overreacting but then they usually do, on both the up and downsides.

  • Reply 130 of 187
    yojimbo007yojimbo007 Posts: 1,165member
    Look at the long term chart of this casino
  • Reply 131 of 187
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member
    sog35 wrote: »
    WTF are you talking about!  I just showed you the link that the expectation for Q4 was $50.9 billion in revenue which is NOT 30% growth.  That is 20% growth.  They DO NOT COMPARE sequential quarters.   With Apple its always YoY. 

    No analyist has 30% revenue growth for Q4.  Thats only you making crap up.

    Ok, I checked the number for last year, and it's higher than I thought. So it's 21%. Still, what I'm saying about straddling the consensus is right. That's what they expect in guidence. I'll tell you something, I've now seen three articles already talking how disappointing Apple's guidance is.

    I think it's all BS, I suppose you do too. But they look for things that do t always make sense. I can't stop them from doing it though.
  • Reply 132 of 187
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post





    There wont be one.. But there should be!





    This kind if bogus games WS charlatans play .. Hurts the credibilty of the market.



    Only for people who don't get it.

  • Reply 133 of 187
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member

    Ah, I think I hear an echo. :)

    We can all echo the same thing. I recently read that the markets have gone up an average of 10% a year since 1928, not a typo.
  • Reply 134 of 187
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member
    It's not a credible link, since it's written by someone who has no expertise in financial markets. He's a health policy guy. I think you're conflating the term 'rational expectations' (which has to with market efficiency, and is a term derived from macroeconomics, due to well-known academics like Muth, Barro et. al) with 'rationality.' <span style="font-size:16px;line-height:1.4em;">A common mistake.</span>


    <span style="font-size:16px;line-height:1.4em;">Btw, markets can certainly be inefficient, especially in the short run, and there is a whole school of financial economics known as 'behavioral economics' that </span>
    attempts to explain why.

    If you want to learn more, please take a look at: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/pubs/p1055.pdf

    I have no trouble with your throwing around loose terms and definitions (go right ahead!) -- people do it all the time -- but there's a certitude with which you express your opinions about markets that is inconsistent with such looseness.

    It's a very credible link, because it describes it EXACTLY as it is. Maybe you don't want to read it.

    I could say exactly the same thing about you.

    We can get link after link, and they will all say the same thing.
  • Reply 135 of 187
    sumergosumergo Posts: 215member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     



    Sorry.  But if he listened to your suggestion 5 years ago he would have missed out on hundreds of thousands of dollars.

     

     

    The stock market is only a casino for those who don't know how to invest.  Look at the historic returns of the S&P500 and other broad stock market index's.




    I was merely suggesting that it is prudent to review your portfolio and take your winnings accordingly.  Lots of the AAPL punters in this forum have done very well and may continue to do so for a few more years, but it will not last forever.

     

    All I was counselling is that Melgross should consider selling sometimes rather than holding forever.

     

    By the way, sog35 - exactly what stock market expertise do you actually have? 

  • Reply 136 of 187
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,397member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by melgross View Post

    I could say exactly the same thing about you.



    We can get link after link, and they will all say the same thing.

    Um... no. I gave you a link from Robert Shiller, who won a Nobel Prize for his ideas on rational expectations and market efficiency.

     

    But you're certainly welcome to think that all links are the same. I can't stop that.

  • Reply 137 of 187
    sumergosumergo Posts: 215member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post





    Thanks for you sage advice. I've inly been doing this since 1963. Maybe some day I'll learn.

    I know nothing about the stock market, but I do look out the window.

    AAPL may be great for the next few years but then there may be another story.

    You seem to be so assured of your opinion, such wanking - see you on your way down.

  • Reply 138 of 187
    sumergosumergo Posts: 215member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     



    Been investing for 15 years.  My average return is about 20% a year.  This includes the crash in 2001 and 2008.

     

    IMO Apple will see $150 this year and long term it will hit $200




    Agreed.  AAPL is good for another five years at least.  We just have to know when to sell ;-)

  • Reply 139 of 187
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member
    sog35 wrote: »

    But Apple always guides low.

    For Q3 the guide was $46-$48 billion.  Actual came out to $49.6 billion.
    For Q4 Apple is guiding $49-$51 billion.  I pretty sure actual will be $52-$53 billion which is higher than Wall Streets estimate of $50.9

    This is just manipulation to kill the massive call option volume this week.  I can easily see the stock recover and be at $125-$128 by the end of the week.  Thus all that billions of call options will expire worthless and those Wall street manipulators can keep their shares and keep their call premiums.

    I expect to see $140 before the next earnings report.

    They do. But, when they announced this new guidence scheme they said that their guidence should more closely reflect actual numbers. Don't you remember that? Previously, their guidence was so low, they were almost guaranteed a large beat.

    But the financial community, being what it is, is never satisfied. Personally, I'd prefer that companies don't give guidence at all. Many don't.
  • Reply 140 of 187
    yojimbo007yojimbo007 Posts: 1,165member

    Only for people who don't get it.
    And what is the perspective of those who get it? If you care to elaborate ?
Sign In or Register to comment.