Going from 200 channels for $100 to 40 channels for $40 is already a huge step.
Once Apple gets about 20 million TV subs than they can negotiate further. Maybe they can shrink the TV package to $30 for 25 channels. Then Apple goes up to 30 million TV subs they can get it down to $20 for 15 channels.
Eventually they will get to the point of true ala carte TV. Where you can simply subscribe to 1 channel for $2.
That looks good at first glance. For $55 you get 35 channels to start... plus you also get to choose two "channel packs" for 20-40 extra channels above the base channel lineup. And each additional channel pack is $10 a month.
But wow... I see a couple problems. First off... the 35 base channels are garbage. Half of them I've never even heard of... and there are enough "inspiration" and shopping channels to choke a horse.
You will also get your local networks... but the only other channel I like is AMC. This is a pathetic list.
No worries though... I also get to choose those two "channel packs" to get more of my favorite channels, right?
And there's the other problem... I like a handful of channels spread across 5 of the packs. And there are still some channels I care nothing about. The Lifestyle pack has the Travel Channel... but I'd also have to get Lifetime and the Oprah network. The Pop Culture pack has Comedy Central... but I'm stuck with MTV and VH1.
So for $55 I get garbage base channels and only a few of my favorite cable channels... while still getting other channels I don't want.
Or I can pay the base $55 + five channel packs @ $10 a month for a grand total of $105 and get all the channels I want.
None of that sounds appealing.
But most of this is rendered moot if you also subscribe to internet. For $80 a month... you get the $55 base channels and two channel packs... PLUS fiber internet.
At that point... how much of that $80 is for TV and how much is the internet? These bundles hide the costs of the individual services.
Are you paying for TV channels and getting cheaper internet? Or are you paying for internet and getting cheaper TV channels?
I would imagine most people who sign up for FIOS are doing it for the internet. And if they like TV at all... it doesn't really cost all that much extra to get internet + TV.
Base TV costs $55 a month. Base internet cost $55 a month.
unless you think AMC will release a whole month of shows on the 1st of the month. Which of course they will not since they want to build up drama and ratings as the weeks go by.
That model is dead - or at least close to death. Ratings will still exist of course, but the way they are determined will be vastly different. In my youth, my friends were split between watching Seinfeld and Home Improvements. They were both popular shows, but many people had to choose to watch one or the other because they were on at the same time and VCR's were not yet common and of those families that had them - most didn't have a clue how to program them to record. In today's world (and even more so in tomorrow's world), all content will be available on demand so people won't have to choose like they did in the past - and the battles for the juicy time slots is completely irrelevant. This will make it harder for new shows, since they won't follow the time slot of an extremely popular show anymore and be automatically watched by people too lazy to change the channel. People will have to discover them by other means.
So - no, I don't think AMC will release all of their new content immediately, they will still release a new episode every week, but once released, it can be consumed on-demand - as well as all previous content owned by AMC. This changes the game for advertisers now too. They will no longer be paying based on the date/time/channel their ad airs on, they'll be paying to have their ad displayed during "Modern Family" - no matter what day/time it's being viewed. As you stated, sports, news and other live broadcasts will continue to follow the legacy model - but I think that all non-live content will be available on-demand in 5 years or less. And with all content being available on-demand, I see little need for DVR's in the future except for those that want to record live broadcasts (ie time-shifting a sports event because of work).
The big question is who is going to be the company to consolidate all of that on-deman content and provide easy access to it? Apple? Netflix? Amazon? I certainly hope that someone is able to pull it all together so that we don't have to maintain accounts with multiple streaming services in order to see all of our favourite shows - but that will probably take a LOT longer to accomplish (if ever). It's probably about as likely as the ability to play MarioKart on a PS4 or xBoxOne!
Comments
http://verizonspecials.com/verizon-fios-tv/custom
That looks good at first glance. For $55 you get 35 channels to start... plus you also get to choose two "channel packs" for 20-40 extra channels above the base channel lineup. And each additional channel pack is $10 a month.
But wow... I see a couple problems. First off... the 35 base channels are garbage. Half of them I've never even heard of... and there are enough "inspiration" and shopping channels to choke a horse.
You will also get your local networks... but the only other channel I like is AMC. This is a pathetic list.
No worries though... I also get to choose those two "channel packs" to get more of my favorite channels, right?
And there's the other problem... I like a handful of channels spread across 5 of the packs. And there are still some channels I care nothing about. The Lifestyle pack has the Travel Channel... but I'd also have to get Lifetime and the Oprah network. The Pop Culture pack has Comedy Central... but I'm stuck with MTV and VH1.
So for $55 I get garbage base channels and only a few of my favorite cable channels... while still getting other channels I don't want.
Or I can pay the base $55 + five channel packs @ $10 a month for a grand total of $105 and get all the channels I want.
None of that sounds appealing.
But most of this is rendered moot if you also subscribe to internet. For $80 a month... you get the $55 base channels and two channel packs... PLUS fiber internet.
At that point... how much of that $80 is for TV and how much is the internet? These bundles hide the costs of the individual services.
Are you paying for TV channels and getting cheaper internet? Or are you paying for internet and getting cheaper TV channels?
I would imagine most people who sign up for FIOS are doing it for the internet. And if they like TV at all... it doesn't really cost all that much extra to get internet + TV.
Base TV costs $55 a month. Base internet cost $55 a month.
Or get both to $80.
So - no, I don't think AMC will release all of their new content immediately, they will still release a new episode every week, but once released, it can be consumed on-demand - as well as all previous content owned by AMC. This changes the game for advertisers now too. They will no longer be paying based on the date/time/channel their ad airs on, they'll be paying to have their ad displayed during "Modern Family" - no matter what day/time it's being viewed. As you stated, sports, news and other live broadcasts will continue to follow the legacy model - but I think that all non-live content will be available on-demand in 5 years or less. And with all content being available on-demand, I see little need for DVR's in the future except for those that want to record live broadcasts (ie time-shifting a sports event because of work).
The big question is who is going to be the company to consolidate all of that on-deman content and provide easy access to it? Apple? Netflix? Amazon? I certainly hope that someone is able to pull it all together so that we don't have to maintain accounts with multiple streaming services in order to see all of our favourite shows - but that will probably take a LOT longer to accomplish (if ever). It's probably about as likely as the ability to play MarioKart on a PS4 or xBoxOne!