Pessimistic, questionable iPhone supplier rumor sends shares of Apple further downward

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Comments

  • Reply 61 of 78
    sog35 wrote: »
    I disagree. A stock with a large dividend is a good indicator of a company that no longer knows what to do with their money. Considering most of that massive cash pile is overseas, a bigger dividend would have the net effect of adding debts and obligations for Apple. A bigger dividend weakens the company while "pandering" with handouts to flyby investors, not long term investors. The regular appreciation of the stock is the best indicator of a company that is still on track.


    At this point, I believe Apple should eliminate both the buybacks and the dividend.

    So whats your solution to the manipulation?

    And don't say just hold and let Wall street do this bullshiit since it will go up EVENTUALLY.  

    Its been 3 years since Sept2012 and the stock is up a pathetic 8% while its EPS is up 45%.

    See above.
  • Reply 62 of 78
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,889member
    Wall Street is basically yanking Apple's chain for more information, more often. It goes against the company's predilection for keeping silent.

    Exactly. Wall Street releases these rumors in the hopes that Apple responds. Apple rarely responds to them however so that's why negative rumors seem to be released after good Apple news.
  • Reply 63 of 78
    rgh71rgh71 Posts: 120member
    sog35 wrote: »
    Apple should care.  Their non-defensive stance against rumors is costing Apple investors AND employees HUNDREDS of BILLIONS.

    How hard would it be to have a PR guru who's only job is to release statements to counter rumors?  All they would have to say is repeat what Cook said in previous earnings calls:  Don't try to use a small part of the supply chain to estimate demand.  Easy. Simple.  And shuts the idiots up immediately.  

    Then off the record they should call up any of these media outlets and spew this non-sense and give them a mouth full.  

    No more playing nice. Defend your stock Apple, you owe to your shareholders and employees (who get paid through stock options).  The code of silence that Jobs took does not work in today's Twitter world.

    Companies are known to stretch the truth (lie constantly) so countering rumors only makes one look defensive and is not effective
  • Reply 64 of 78
    rgh71 wrote: »
    Companies are known to stretch the truth (lie constantly) so countering rumors only makes one look defensive and is not effective

    If Apple can't be viewed as a company that tells the truth over some basic issues impacting financials, it has far deeper problems. Moreover, not looking defensive or ineffective is what the public relations people and senior management are paid to do. They'd better be good at it, at the level of the company like Apple.

    On the other hand, it could be just your cynicism....

    (Edited poor wording).
  • Reply 65 of 78
    normmnormm Posts: 646member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    Stock split and buyback are not bad in their own.  Time to return cash to SHAREHOLDERS with an increased dividend and stop the buyback immediately.


     

    Doubling the dividend is a dramatic gesture that might change the dynamic.  But anything that tends to raise the stock price will also encourage more manipulation to push it down again.  So I'm not sure whether it will help.  But something dramatic will eventually happen if the stock market value of the enterprise continues to fall more and more dramatically lower than a realistic value.  If banks were rational, I should be able to buy Apple right now and take it private using just Apple itself as the entire collateral!  In fact, given the incredibly low rates that banks can borrow money at right now, one of them should just buy Apple.

  • Reply 66 of 78
    normmnormm Posts: 646member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post



    Apple did everything right; it just didn't make a difference to the markets. At this point, I think they should start an investment bank to rival Goldman. Since that is really stupid, the stock must go up...

     

    Maybe Apple should set up an investment bank, owned entirely by Apple employees, and put all its cash there.  Then that bank could get a big loan and buy Apple, at a healthy premium on top of the stock price.  Best investment it could make!

  • Reply 67 of 78
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,001member
    Maybe it was the news about Dunkin' Donuts planning to shut down 100 stores this year and next that has markets jittery today. ????

    "Wall Street logic"

    I don't know about elsewhere but they over saturated NYC. You'll pass by one, and a block away there's another one.
  • Reply 68 of 78
    normmnormm Posts: 646member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by JackANSI View Post

     

    You'll only see people who "love" Apple complain about how its' stock is "manipulated".  Look around at the broader market and you'll always find the same thing going on.  Different stock, same story.  Apple isn't an exception.  Get over it.  The expectations are so high on Apple that the price will be lucky to keep pace with inflation.


     

    Apple is an exception in several ways.  First of all it's the biggest publicly traded company.  Secondly, it has the strongest brand and ecosystem.  Thirdly, it is dramatically undervalued in terms of present value of likely future earnings.  And finally, its business model is not just "market share". All of these things make it both easier to manipulate its stock and more worthwhile.  And I disagree that expectations are high. Apple is valued as if it is going to go out of business two years from now.  Everyone is just looking for any sign of weakness that signals that the doom is nigh. 

  • Reply 69 of 78
    mechanicmechanic Posts: 805member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

     

    If what the digitimes reports is correct Apple would blow away expectations.


    Ha Ha Your funny.  Digitimes correct, HA HA.

    The yellow sheet journalistic rag is almost always wrong they have the worst track record in the industry for predicting things.  This just shows how stupid wall street investors really are.

  • Reply 70 of 78

    When China cracked down on market manipulators it was criticized by CNBC and Bloomberg for interrupting free market. Now the traders on WS are not interrupting the market, they predict 12 million on opening weekend, but apple sold more, apple price didn't fall to their target price, now they produce supplier rumors so apple drop to their short price target and make a ton of money. They should be in jail.

  • Reply 71 of 78
    brucemc wrote: »
    When a company manages is business with its primary focus on the stock price, they are truly doomed.  Apple for the most part seems to have that long term vision, and leave the share price to itself, with the new addition of a capital return program (which is not about making operating level business decisions with an eye on the stock).

    Apple also does not telegraph where they are going, even their patents don't give many clues. When Apple busy a company, which they do rather frequently, it's not announced and embellished. This has the advantage to Apple of positioning themselves to disrupt a new market with a powerful effect. This is the "long term vision" mentioned in the above quote.

    So, keeping a low profile, and building out a platform for a new product is the Apple way and it's been essential strategy for gaining the initiative before it becomes a serious rumor. The best example is the iPhone.

    1. Before the announcement, on stage, by Steve, there were all kinds of rumors about how Apple would pull off a disruptive entrance into the cell phone business. No one could see it working.
    2. Once the iPhone was announced, the main competitors (MS, Blackberry, Palm, MotoMo) still blew it off as not important. The reason they felt that way was that no one knew how much Apple had paved the way in the shadows for the iPhone.
    3. Once the competition realized that Apple had done the impossible, they scrambled to match the hardware... but would not have been able to emulate the software, were it not for Google (android).
    4. However, Apple was already moving the stakes on hardware and built out the ecosystem... and this has been the case since then. Apple is one to three years ahead of the competition, maybe even further, depending on what is being compared...

    You can't do what Apple is doing by being a normal company... especially one like Google where every little thing is ballyhooed with news releases even if it's barely out of the lab. This is good for inflating one's stock prices, but doesn't give a company any edge over the competition in time, which Apple had found to be invaluable.
  • Reply 72 of 78
    sog35 wrote: »
    rgh71 wrote: »
    Companies are known to stretch the truth (lie constantly) so countering rumors only makes one look defensive and is not effective


    But Apple does not have a reputation of lying.  If they debunk rumors the market will trust them.

    The problem with debunking false rumors is that when you don't debunk a rumor, then it must be true. You can't cloak your corporate moves when you begin that practice. It's best to just do a "no comment" and get back to one's knitting.
  • Reply 73 of 78
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post





    The problem with debunking false rumors is that when you don't debunk a rumor, then it must be true. You can't cloak your corporate moves when you begin that practice. It's best to just do a "no comment" and get back to one's knitting.



    IMO the problem with debunking is that whatever you do as a company, any move will serve as a confirmation for what you want to be true.

    You do not debunk? Ah, so must be true and they have something to hide.

    You debunk? Sure it must be true, otherwise they would not care.

    Apart from the fact that it should be hard to debunk each and every single of such "rumors", which also leads to inconsistency, therefore further confirmation (ah, they debunked this, not the other, so blablala  must be true), main point for me is that such rumors are read by

    - people like us (=more interested, and slightly better informed people, such as forum members) who know how to deal with this kind of "rumor",

    - speculates who use it to their likings to achieve whatever they want to achieve in terms of moving the share price up or down,

    - some clueless half-informed media that spreads the news.

    To me, only the second group is relevant w.r.t. stock price, and overall image of Apple, and these are exactly those people who do not care about debunking, or not.

  • Reply 74 of 78
    evilutionevilution Posts: 1,398member

    All the time that WS can make money by making up BS about Apple, buying cheap shares, not making up BS about Apple and then selling the shares, they will continue to do it.

     

    Keeping shareholders happy has more cons than pros. The quicker that Apple go private the better.

  • Reply 75 of 78
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

    [edited for brevity but excellent post]

    Apple also does not telegraph where they are going, even their patents don't give many clues. When Apple buys a company, which they do rather frequently, it's not announced and embellished. This has the advantage to Apple of positioning themselves to disrupt a new market with a powerful effect. This is the "long term vision" mentioned in the above quote.



    So, keeping a low profile, and building out a platform for a new product is the Apple way and it's been essential strategy for gaining the initiative before it becomes a serious rumor. The best example is the iPhone.

    ...

    You can't do what Apple is doing by being a normal company... especially one like Google where every little thing is ballyhooed with news releases even if it's barely out of the lab. This is good for inflating one's stock prices, but doesn't give a company any edge over the competition in time, which Apple had found to be invaluable.

    Excellent post!  Indeed, Apple is focused about both building great products & the ecosystem, but they are also very keen on "competing".  They don't talk about where they are going except in very abstract ways.  They don't want to give any competitor any insight into what & how they are doing something.  They want every lead possible.

     

    Think about the Apple Watch and not releasing its unit sales.  Apple said right after the watch's initial debut a year ago that they would not be breaking out the numbers.  This has been interpreted as expectations for the AW sales being poor.  Now, not releasing quarterly units on a brand new product category is certainly a good thing from the perspective of avoiding endless press about "not living up to XYZ expectations" (and by the way, no other company would do it either).  But the real reason is to avoid giving information to competitors.  Let them guess how the Apple is doing - don't tell them.  

     

    Everyone here is whining about Apple not doing more to combat the negative press and manipulation, but that is simply an impossible task.  Apple is focused on the right thing - growing the business by making great products/ecosystem, and getting ahead of the competition.  And not giving the competition any insight by denying all rumours (which will turn to expectations anything not denied is true).

     

    Investing in equities is a long game, requiring a 5 year + horizon at the minimum.  Any investment manager will tell you that.  If you are concerned with short term fluctuations in a stock, you should not be investing in it.  

     

    The never-ending-poster Sog35, who is on quite a rant on this thread, loves to point out the return from Apple's late 2012 peak to today, and show that it is up only $8 over 3 years.  But that bump at the time was a bit of the market getting ahead of itself due to unusually high iPhone 4s margins.  Rather than cherry-picking the worst number, consider:

    - From mid-2013 to today, AAPL is up about $44/share from $63, or a gain of 70%

    - From 2nd half 2011 (4 years ago), AAPL is up ~$55/share, or a gain of over 100%

     

     

    Yes, the stock is not moving now, but as the P/E compresses enough, and Apple shows another stellar holiday quarter, it is going to go up.  Just like it did in 2013 and 2014.   Apple isn't (and as per Macky, can't be) a normal company, but it's P/E can't compress forever.  As for other Internet companies like Google and Facebook - they are measured by WS in other ways, and unfortunately for an Apple fan, they are given far more weight to "what they could be", than what they are.

     

    If you don't understand this, sell your AAPL, and then you can enjoy Apple the company and its products, rather than rant endlessly about how unfair the market is.

  • Reply 76 of 78
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JackANSI View Post

     



    They did have a meaningful break out...  you're just way too late.

     

    You'll only see people who "love" Apple complain about how its' stock is "manipulated".  Look around at the broader market and you'll always find the same thing going on.  Different stock, same story.  Apple isn't an exception.  Get over it.  The expectations are so high on Apple that the price will be lucky to keep pace with inflation.

     

    Edit: and if you can't find examples of what I'm talking about, I'm not helping you.  Do your own research... I did.




    GTFO.

     

    Show me ONE stock that has grown revenue by 48% and EPS by 45% yet stock price has only gone up 8%.

     

    Show me ONE.  JUST ONE STOCK that has that type of amazing performance yet the stock has actually LOST market cap.




    Act like a baby and you get ignored... bye.

  • Reply 77 of 78
    jackansijackansi Posts: 116member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by NormM View Post

     
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JackANSI View Post

     

    You'll only see people who "love" Apple complain about how its' stock is "manipulated".  Look around at the broader market and you'll always find the same thing going on.  Different stock, same story.  Apple isn't an exception.  Get over it.  The expectations are so high on Apple that the price will be lucky to keep pace with inflation.


     

    Apple is an exception in several ways.  First of all it's the biggest publicly traded company.  Secondly, it has the strongest brand and ecosystem.  Thirdly, it is dramatically undervalued in terms of present value of likely future earnings.  And finally, its business model is not just "market share". All of these things make it both easier to manipulate its stock and more worthwhile.  And I disagree that expectations are high. Apple is valued as if it is going to go out of business two years from now.  Everyone is just looking for any sign of weakness that signals that the doom is nigh. 




    You (and many analysts) and I are too far apart on the valuation of Apple.  I think it is worth exactly what it is trading for, maybe less.  Any projection higher than $130 is someone trying to drive it higher before they sell.  Just like we have seen.

     

    As #1 expectations are always high.  You'll need to beat the projection average 19/20 times to stay on top of the computer models... that is unrealistic even for Apple you describe.

     

    You should never trade a stock you're emotionally invested in.  You'll make very bad decisions and not see the stock as it really is.  You'll never make as much money as someone who is not attached.  That is beginner day trader stuff right there.

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