And as it should be IMO. Apple's reach is absolutely MASSIVE now compared to a few years back. No other product they ever launched has had this number of outlets. Even if you ignored the big growth in retail partners over the past 6 years the number of Apple Stores has exploded! http://www.apple.com/retail/storelist/
Huge numbers from Apple are now an expectation instead of a surprise. You may not have any trouble with your 15M.
Tho to be honest your original wager was for 15M THIS YEAR, not over 12 months
Haha! I could never use that many MBAs, beer tastes gross, and fast food is unhealthy. I'd rather buy one of every model of car currently made along with a garage big enough to store them all.
On a more serious note, I was actually curious what $1.7B in watch sales actually means to Apple in the grand scheme of things.
Haha! I could never use that many MBAs, beer tastes gross, and fast food is unhealthy. I'd rather buy one of every model of car currently made along with a garage big enough to store them all.
On a more serious note, I was actually curious what $1.7B in watch sales actually means to Apple in the grand scheme of things.
Well, it's not iPhone numbers and won't move the needle at this time, but even the iPhone started small when everyone was saying it would never go anywhere. As others pointed out above, it seems to be Apple biggest release ever, so that's promising.
Every other "smart" watch or high end traditional watch company wishes they had could sell over $1 Billion worth of products in a lifetime, never mind five months.
Haha! I could never use that many MBAs, beer tastes gross, and fast food is unhealthy. I'd rather buy one of every model of car currently made along with a garage big enough to store them all.
On a more serious note, I was actually curious what $1.7B in watch sales actually means to Apple in the grand scheme of things.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35
You have a point.
But considering that you need a recent iPhone to make it work that narrows the potential market big time.
The market for iPad/iPhone was literally billions.
The market for Watch is a few hundred million.
If indeed Apple ships 15 million in its first year, and it looks to happen, that is an auspicious start for a wearable product line. I look at it as an exercise in low power computation; it's hard to imagine where that will ultimately lead, but the effort does enlarge the ecosystem and will tend to keep current Apple users from "leaking" to other platforms.
I'd say that that extrapolation is on the low end of sales revenue for the watch, but it's an easy bet that the holiday quarter will see a big spike in the whole 'other product' category as sales of the iWatch double this quarter and the new Apple TV jumps out of the gate. Tim said the first day sales, to the Apple faithful, was 'huge'. And now that the reviews are out, that trend should continue.
Wait til they add the Apple Car to the 'other product' category ...
And as it should be IMO. Apple's reach is absolutely MASSIVE now compared to a few years back. No other product they ever launched has had this number of outlets. Even if you ignored the big growth in retail partners over the past 6 years the number of Apple Stores has exploded! http://www.apple.com/retail/storelist/
Huge numbers from Apple are now an expectation instead of a surprise. You may not have any trouble with your 15M.
[SIZE=9px]Tho to be honest your original wager was for 15M THIS YEAR, not over 12 months[/SIZE]
You have a point.
But considering that you need a recent iPhone to make it work that narrows the potential market big time.
In my eyes the ?watch/iPhone matchup doesn't narrow the market, it ensures user loyalty and doubles the sales to two devices.
And as it should be IMO. Apple's reach is absolutely MASSIVE now compared to a few years back. No other product they ever launched has had this number of outlets. Even if you ignored the big growth in retail partners over the past 6 years the number of Apple Stores has exploded! http://www.apple.com/retail/storelist/
Huge numbers from Apple are now an expectation instead of a surprise. You may not have any trouble with your 15M.
Tho to be honest your original wager was for 15M THIS YEAR, not over 12 months
Not really for the Watch. Its distribution was limited because they were selling only in a few Apple Stores and exclusive third party outlets for a few months.
I suspect they did it to study its demand, and also stock was constrained at that time.
How are people arriving at sales when we don't know the ASP? I know some are guessing a $500 ASP but based on what? We have no idea what the mix is between Sport and SS models.
If you multiply a fact by a guess you arrive at whatever answer you want to believe. This is how Wall Street analysts work.
and those will most likely be on the same timeline as the ATV was for gen 2 and 3. Everyone could be waiting a while. I am curious to see if they take the Ipod approach, start high and work their way down. They did not do that with Ipads or iphones since the bottoms feeders moved in too fast with cheap Okay product that most people just bought.
Its all speculation of course, by my view is that Apple will not do an "ATV" and only release a new model every 2-3 years. They really pushed this product hard, unlike ATV. Also, TV technology (from the perspective of what the early ATVs were doing) doesn't change much, whereas wearables are very early in that market cycle.
I expect Apple to have yearly releases of the AW for multiple reasons:
- To drive / keep interest in the product up (new buyers, upgraders from enthusiasts - lets the older devices move down market).
- Slight changes to design will attract more buyers (differentiation - watches most personal, so provide a new model)
- Technology will change rapidly in the wearable space
- Many new features can be added already (GPS, another health sensor, better battery/lower power designs, smarter bands)
I have stated all along that I thought 10M for this device in its first full year was good, and I think Apple is on track to exceed that. Something really new like a wearable device will take more time to diffuse into society / market than something like the iPhone and iPad, where the "clear benefit" was easier to see.
Personally, I think $1.7 billion is great. I'm sure that's $1.5 billion more than Android Wear watches. Samsung is only selling a few hundred thousand watches a quarter. All the other manufacturers like LG, Pebble, and Motorola are selling a significantly less amount. $1.7 billion in 5 months for an accessory is great.
In my eyes the ?watch/iPhone matchup doesn't narrow the market, it ensures user loyalty and doubles the sales to two devices.
That wasn't my point.
Gatorfan said that if the Watch broke the iPads record of the fastest selling Apple device it would be no big deal because there are more Apple users now than ever.
My point is when the iPad came out literally BILLIONS of people could have bought it.
With the Watch you need to own a recent iPhone. That narrows the possible buyers to a few hundred million.
And I disagree. Cook said 30% of the iPhone buyers in the last quarter were switchers to the brand... maybe they wanted the ?watch and needed to buy the iPhone to enjoy the ?watch utility. Of course not all 30% were motivated by the ?watch, but you see where I am coming from.
My thinking is that Apple didn't get into the watch business because they wanted to sell watches. They got in because they want to sell more iPhones.
But considering that you need a recent iPhone to make it work that narrows the potential market big time.
The market for iPad/iPhone was literally billions.
The market for Watch is a few hundred million.
Try looking at it slightly differently...
Since each Apple Watch requires a recent iPhone, it provides an incentive for iPhone 4 and some iPhone 5 users to upgrade so they can get one!
It also provides an incentive for Android sufferers to upgrade to an iPhone so they can get this nice new cool watch (have you seen the recent switcher stats?).
Apple Watch is an iPhone support product. Seen in that light, it is already a success.
My thinking is that Apple didn't get into the watch business because they wanted to sell watches. They got in because they want to sell more iPhones.
I believe Apple Watch is just another ecosystem/halo device to sell all things Apple. The only reason you need an iPhone to unlock the potential of an Apple Watch is because they couldn't fit the complete feature set inside the small case. Eventually they will be able to.
Comments
Is that a lot?
Well you could buy the following with it:
1,700,000 MacBook Airs
141,666,666 six packs of beer
354,906,054 Big Macs
492,753,623 Grande Lattes @ Starbucks
1,428,571,428 crunchy taco's @ Taco Bell
http://www.apple.com/retail/storelist/
Huge numbers from Apple are now an expectation instead of a surprise. You may not have any trouble with your 15M.
Tho to be honest your original wager was for 15M THIS YEAR, not over 12 months
Well you could buy the following with it:
1,700,000 MacBook Airs
141,666,666 six packs of beer
354,906,054 Big Macs
492,753,623 Grande Lattes @ Starbucks
1,428,571,428 crunchy taco's @ Taco Bell
Haha! I could never use that many MBAs, beer tastes gross, and fast food is unhealthy. I'd rather buy one of every model of car currently made along with a garage big enough to store them all.
On a more serious note, I was actually curious what $1.7B in watch sales actually means to Apple in the grand scheme of things.
Apple branded Apple Watch accessories would be part of the number as well.
Haha! I could never use that many MBAs, beer tastes gross, and fast food is unhealthy. I'd rather buy one of every model of car currently made along with a garage big enough to store them all.
On a more serious note, I was actually curious what $1.7B in watch sales actually means to Apple in the grand scheme of things.
Well, it's not iPhone numbers and won't move the needle at this time, but even the iPhone started small when everyone was saying it would never go anywhere. As others pointed out above, it seems to be Apple biggest release ever, so that's promising.
Every other "smart" watch or high end traditional watch company wishes they had could sell over $1 Billion worth of products in a lifetime, never mind five months.
Haha! I could never use that many MBAs, beer tastes gross, and fast food is unhealthy. I'd rather buy one of every model of car currently made along with a garage big enough to store them all.
On a more serious note, I was actually curious what $1.7B in watch sales actually means to Apple in the grand scheme of things.
You have a point.
But considering that you need a recent iPhone to make it work that narrows the potential market big time.
The market for iPad/iPhone was literally billions.
The market for Watch is a few hundred million.
If indeed Apple ships 15 million in its first year, and it looks to happen, that is an auspicious start for a wearable product line. I look at it as an exercise in low power computation; it's hard to imagine where that will ultimately lead, but the effort does enlarge the ecosystem and will tend to keep current Apple users from "leaking" to other platforms.
I'd say that that extrapolation is on the low end of sales revenue for the watch, but it's an easy bet that the holiday quarter will see a big spike in the whole 'other product' category as sales of the iWatch double this quarter and the new Apple TV jumps out of the gate. Tim said the first day sales, to the Apple faithful, was 'huge'. And now that the reviews are out, that trend should continue.
Wait til they add the Apple Car to the 'other product' category ...
In my eyes the ?watch/iPhone matchup doesn't narrow the market, it ensures user loyalty and doubles the sales to two devices.
Not really for the Watch. Its distribution was limited because they were selling only in a few Apple Stores and exclusive third party outlets for a few months.
I suspect they did it to study its demand, and also stock was constrained at that time.
Its obvious that the smartphone will be replaced by a wearable as the mobile device of choice.
Really? I thought you subscribed to the theory that large screen smartphones were trending.
If you multiply a fact by a guess you arrive at whatever answer you want to believe. This is how Wall Street analysts work.
and those will most likely be on the same timeline as the ATV was for gen 2 and 3. Everyone could be waiting a while. I am curious to see if they take the Ipod approach, start high and work their way down. They did not do that with Ipads or iphones since the bottoms feeders moved in too fast with cheap Okay product that most people just bought.
Its all speculation of course, by my view is that Apple will not do an "ATV" and only release a new model every 2-3 years. They really pushed this product hard, unlike ATV. Also, TV technology (from the perspective of what the early ATVs were doing) doesn't change much, whereas wearables are very early in that market cycle.
I expect Apple to have yearly releases of the AW for multiple reasons:
- To drive / keep interest in the product up (new buyers, upgraders from enthusiasts - lets the older devices move down market).
- Slight changes to design will attract more buyers (differentiation - watches most personal, so provide a new model)
- Technology will change rapidly in the wearable space
- Many new features can be added already (GPS, another health sensor, better battery/lower power designs, smarter bands)
I have stated all along that I thought 10M for this device in its first full year was good, and I think Apple is on track to exceed that. Something really new like a wearable device will take more time to diffuse into society / market than something like the iPhone and iPad, where the "clear benefit" was easier to see.
Large screen for now. Heres what I see as the trends for the next few decades:
Large screen phones
Zero bezel phones
Foldable phones (how 1990s)
Wearables with larger screens
Wearables with foldable/rollable screens
Wearables with projected screens
I see mental telepathy, teleportation and immortality as trending.
Well you could buy the following with it:
1,700,000 MacBook Airs
141,666,666 six packs of beer
354,906,054 Big Macs
492,753,623 Grande Lattes @ Starbucks
1,428,571,428 crunchy taco's @ Taco Bell
How many Mc Ribs?
Personally, I think $1.7 billion is great. I'm sure that's $1.5 billion more than Android Wear watches. Samsung is only selling a few hundred thousand watches a quarter. All the other manufacturers like LG, Pebble, and Motorola are selling a significantly less amount. $1.7 billion in 5 months for an accessory is great.
And I disagree. Cook said 30% of the iPhone buyers in the last quarter were switchers to the brand... maybe they wanted the ?watch and needed to buy the iPhone to enjoy the ?watch utility. Of course not all 30% were motivated by the ?watch, but you see where I am coming from.
My thinking is that Apple didn't get into the watch business because they wanted to sell watches. They got in because they want to sell more iPhones.
You have a point.
But considering that you need a recent iPhone to make it work that narrows the potential market big time.
The market for iPad/iPhone was literally billions.
The market for Watch is a few hundred million.
Try looking at it slightly differently...
Since each Apple Watch requires a recent iPhone, it provides an incentive for iPhone 4 and some iPhone 5 users to upgrade so they can get one!
It also provides an incentive for Android sufferers to upgrade to an iPhone so they can get this nice new cool watch (have you seen the recent switcher stats?).
Apple Watch is an iPhone support product. Seen in that light, it is already a success.
My thinking is that Apple didn't get into the watch business because they wanted to sell watches. They got in because they want to sell more iPhones.
I believe Apple Watch is just another ecosystem/halo device to sell all things Apple. The only reason you need an iPhone to unlock the potential of an Apple Watch is because they couldn't fit the complete feature set inside the small case. Eventually they will be able to.