Looks like I'm going to win my 15 million unit bet.
Guesstimate number only. 7M at $500/pc would be 3.5B. I don't believe of $10B in "other categories", AW took over 30% of it. If you look at the iPad/iPod trend chart, it's gradually decreasing, not dropping sharply. I would say approximately 50% of this number make more sense
I beat your age by a couple of years, but I agree with others that the watch is "beta" in the real sense that the Apple Watch, its OS, and its apps are just now being flushed out. All wearable tech is at the infant stage, especially in the health area.
Given Apple's long term view of their products and the technologies behind them, Apple and their suppliers and competitors and university researchers and health technologists are seeing features 5, 10 and 20 years out.
I’m 65 years old and have worn a watch on my wrist my entire adult life. I wear my Apple Watch all day, every day. It has become second nature to me. I receive texts on it, I check the weather with it, I scan emails, and I have made and received phone calls on it. I respond to the health app urging me to stand up, walk, whatever. It has become almost my primary mobile device. Twice now I have had to unlock my iPhone using my passcode instead of TouchID because it had been more than 48 hours since the iPhone had been unlocked. Imagine that.
Wearable tech is here, it’s staying, it’s going to grow and the Apple Watch is best of breed, period. The naysayers can go suck on a turd. They are wrong, they are ignorantly wrong. It is NOT some kind of experimental beta or “fun” thing to have. It works and it works well.
I agree 4 million is a lot of watches, and 7 million watches in essentially two quarters is fantastic for a brand new device in a category that wasn't doing very well to begin with. I'm certain Apple is hoping for better numbers, but projected out at the same rate 14 million watches in their first year is far from a failure.
But these numbers are wonky. If Apple has only sold 7 million watches, and they sold 4.2 million watches during the 1st quarter it was on sale, that means they only sold 2.8 million watches during the second quarter after production delays had been overcome and they were available in stores. And if that's accurate it means that watch sales are slowing down dramatically, despite Apple accounting for a similar 1% growth year over year as the 3rd quarter results by attributing 100% of that growth to the watch. Moreover, the numbers don't make sense for the overall revenue unless Beats has had a stellar year, along with the iPod and ?TV.
You're projecting doom from two hypothetical data points.
1) how many will Apple sell this quarter, the holiday quarter in North America and Europe, and
2) how many will Apple sell next quarter, the holiday quarter in China.
Eventually, Apple will report watch revenues separately, rather than as part of "Other", but we'll probably have to wait until FY2016/17 for that.
I think I understand what you mean here, but I would qualify to say that these questions are more important to the analyst/WS/media community. All they care about is numbers "right now". In fact, the cycle for what determines success in their eyes shortens all the time ("the Apple Watch didn't sell at least 50% of the iPhone numbers shows failure - if this brand new category of device hasn't caught on in 10's of millions per quarter in 6 months, better flush 'er down the toilet...without even the slightest shred of logic).
Fortunately for us, Apple doesn't think this way, which is why they are so successful (and 90% of the population of this planet doesn't understand why:) The more important questions are how Apple can add HW and SW features to the AW over the next 5 years to make this a dominant product category - that wearables become very much a highly desired, perhaps necessary, product.
I have had the AW for 5 months, and I don't consider it a beta product at all. It is IMO the best "gen1" product Apple has ever produced (competing with iPad) - fantastic build quality, fit & finish, SW reliability, platform support. I do acknowledge that its functionality is not "necessary" by any means at this point in time, but it is quite enjoyable and useful to me. Given a couple more h/w versions, and both platform & application evolution, over the next couple of years, and I think this will be a killer category.
Looks like I'm going to win my 15 million unit bet.
Of course you will.. you'll manufacture a way to get to 15m units and claim you called it... When in reality, there is no chance to prove if they did or not.
That said... only the rosiest of holiday estimates have them anywhere near 15m. The absolute top I've read about, using reality as a guide, is 12m.
Anyone who is pimping a number bigger than 12m total, including holiday season, is just trying to manipulate people/stock
Was it 15 mil in first year of sales (365 days or 4 full quarters) or by Dec 31, 2015?
Originally it was by the end of this year. After a few days consideration and once some of the initial sales info was bandied about he changed it to within 365 days. That sound like a relatively safe bet to me tho probably well on the high side just based on articles here. Still got the holidays.
I think lots of people think even 4M is not failure for Apple, which I don't agree with.
I would like to argue we don't know it is a failure or success for Apple because the scale and level of Apple operating is different from others. Apple is operating at global scale in high corporate levels with broad product lines, especially in China that is the second largest market for Apple products. However, its competitors, such as Pebble and Jawbone that can be comparable to Apple in terms of sale, are still America centered. They have limited representation in countries like China and their products have yet been widely advertised and acceptable by a large amount of consumers in those countries. Pebble for example is just about supporting Chinese language. Such differences would result in cost differences. But bigger corporations can easily balance their sheets using "Other" categories.
I think it would be too earlier to declare Apple Watch is a failure or success. So far, only REAL Apple insiders know the truth.
I think lots of people think even 4M is not failure for Apple, which I don't agree with.
I would like to argue we don't know it is a failure or success for Apple because the scale and level of Apple operating is different from others. Apple is operating at global scale in high corporate levels with broad product lines, especially in China that is the second largest market for Apple products. However, its competitors, such as Pebble and Jawbone that can be comparable to Apple in terms of sale, are still America centered. They have limited representation in countries like China and their products have yet been widely advertised and acceptable by a large amount of consumers in those countries. Pebble for example is just about supporting Chinese language. Such differences would result in cost differences. But bigger corporations can easily balance their sheets using "Other" categories.
I think it would be too earlier to declare Apple Watch is a failure or success. So far, only REAL Apple insiders know the truth.
1) Are you saying that traditional watches, fitness trackers, and other smartwatches aren't sold worldwide? I'd say that they are, and we look at look at what 4MM of something looks like from those companies to see that that's a lot for their first attempt. Why do you think Pebble or Jawbone or Fitbit can't support a foreign language and sell in a market that isn't the US, but Apple can? Are you saying this is the case with Samsung, whose native written language is Hangul.
2) Why is Apple always held to a very different and very unfair and very irrational standard compare to their competitors?
1) Are you saying that traditional watches, fitness trackers, and other smartwatches aren't sold worldwide? I'd say that they are, and we look at look at what 4MM of something looks like from those companies to see that that's a lot for their first attempt. Why do you think Pebble or Jawbone or Fitbit can't support a foreign language and sell in a market that isn't the US, but Apple can? Are you saying this is the case with Samsung, whose native written language is Hangul.
2) Why is Apple always held to a very different and very unfair and very irrational standard compare to their competitors?
First, I am wonder whether you can understand my argument.
First, my argument is centered in the cost of the Apple Watch. Because the price/cost ratio (easiest ratio) will allow you to assess how profitable a product is and whether or not it is successful. We are not talking about the potential products because they are not on the market yet. If you think 4M is a success. How about the price/cost < 1?
In addition, when you sell a certain amount of them, you just to start to make money since it has been developed for five years. So do you want to make or lose money? Simplest answer ever.
Second, I've never mentioned Pebble or Jawbone are NOT in sale in other countries than America. My original word is "centered in America." So please read sentences carefully before you make a accusation.
Third, you brought up Samsung. English is a worldwide language, while Hangul is local for Korean area. My example for Pebble is opposite to your claim. Because Pebble has english option when it was born but Chinese. Products, like Pebble, need to be localized to fit the countries where the products are selling or started to sell. So, please read the sentence carefully.
I'm not held different standards for Apple. You have no way to evaluate my standards even I state neutrally for Apple.
MY SIMPLEST POINT is that: it is too early states Apple Watch is a successful or failure products without knowing the cost of making this new product. ADDING ONE MORE SENTENCE: Let's Apple report the truth.
Comments
Looks like I'm going to win my 15 million unit bet.
Guesstimate number only. 7M at $500/pc would be 3.5B. I don't believe of $10B in "other categories", AW took over 30% of it. If you look at the iPad/iPod trend chart, it's gradually decreasing, not dropping sharply. I would say approximately 50% of this number make more sense
And for those who've already bought one, the bands are going to be a huge stocking stuffer.
Increasingly I've had people ask me about mine and stated they are either getting or giving one for Christmas.
I beat your age by a couple of years, but I agree with others that the watch is "beta" in the real sense that the Apple Watch, its OS, and its apps are just now being flushed out. All wearable tech is at the infant stage, especially in the health area.
Given Apple's long term view of their products and the technologies behind them, Apple and their suppliers and competitors and university researchers and health technologists are seeing features 5, 10 and 20 years out.
Exactly the same thing in my case. In fact, it happened again at dinner last night!
I’m 65 years old and have worn a watch on my wrist my entire adult life. I wear my Apple Watch all day, every day. It has become second nature to me. I receive texts on it, I check the weather with it, I scan emails, and I have made and received phone calls on it. I respond to the health app urging me to stand up, walk, whatever. It has become almost my primary mobile device. Twice now I have had to unlock my iPhone using my passcode instead of TouchID because it had been more than 48 hours since the iPhone had been unlocked. Imagine that.
Wearable tech is here, it’s staying, it’s going to grow and the Apple Watch is best of breed, period. The naysayers can go suck on a turd. They are wrong, they are ignorantly wrong. It is NOT some kind of experimental beta or “fun” thing to have. It works and it works well.
Couldn't have put it better myself.
You're projecting doom from two hypothetical data points.
I think the more important questions are:
1) how many will Apple sell this quarter, the holiday quarter in North America and Europe, and
2) how many will Apple sell next quarter, the holiday quarter in China.
Eventually, Apple will report watch revenues separately, rather than as part of "Other", but we'll probably have to wait until FY2016/17 for that.
I think I understand what you mean here, but I would qualify to say that these questions are more important to the analyst/WS/media community. All they care about is numbers "right now". In fact, the cycle for what determines success in their eyes shortens all the time ("the Apple Watch didn't sell at least 50% of the iPhone numbers shows failure - if this brand new category of device hasn't caught on in 10's of millions per quarter in 6 months, better flush 'er down the toilet...without even the slightest shred of logic).
Fortunately for us, Apple doesn't think this way, which is why they are so successful (and 90% of the population of this planet doesn't understand why:) The more important questions are how Apple can add HW and SW features to the AW over the next 5 years to make this a dominant product category - that wearables become very much a highly desired, perhaps necessary, product.
I have had the AW for 5 months, and I don't consider it a beta product at all. It is IMO the best "gen1" product Apple has ever produced (competing with iPad) - fantastic build quality, fit & finish, SW reliability, platform support. I do acknowledge that its functionality is not "necessary" by any means at this point in time, but it is quite enjoyable and useful to me. Given a couple more h/w versions, and both platform & application evolution, over the next couple of years, and I think this will be a killer category.
Looks like I'm going to win my 15 million unit bet.
Of course you will.. you'll manufacture a way to get to 15m units and claim you called it... When in reality, there is no chance to prove if they did or not.
That said... only the rosiest of holiday estimates have them anywhere near 15m. The absolute top I've read about, using reality as a guide, is 12m.
Anyone who is pimping a number bigger than 12m total, including holiday season, is just trying to manipulate people/stock
Was it 15 mil in first year of sales (365 days or 4 full quarters) or by Dec 31, 2015?
Ha! That is the perfect way to describe it. ????????
I would like to argue we don't know it is a failure or success for Apple because the scale and level of Apple operating is different from others. Apple is operating at global scale in high corporate levels with broad product lines, especially in China that is the second largest market for Apple products. However, its competitors, such as Pebble and Jawbone that can be comparable to Apple in terms of sale, are still America centered. They have limited representation in countries like China and their products have yet been widely advertised and acceptable by a large amount of consumers in those countries. Pebble for example is just about supporting Chinese language. Such differences would result in cost differences. But bigger corporations can easily balance their sheets using "Other" categories.
I think it would be too earlier to declare Apple Watch is a failure or success. So far, only REAL Apple insiders know the truth.
1) Are you saying that traditional watches, fitness trackers, and other smartwatches aren't sold worldwide? I'd say that they are, and we look at look at what 4MM of something looks like from those companies to see that that's a lot for their first attempt. Why do you think Pebble or Jawbone or Fitbit can't support a foreign language and sell in a market that isn't the US, but Apple can? Are you saying this is the case with Samsung, whose native written language is Hangul.
2) Why is Apple always held to a very different and very unfair and very irrational standard compare to their competitors?
1) Are you saying that traditional watches, fitness trackers, and other smartwatches aren't sold worldwide? I'd say that they are, and we look at look at what 4MM of something looks like from those companies to see that that's a lot for their first attempt. Why do you think Pebble or Jawbone or Fitbit can't support a foreign language and sell in a market that isn't the US, but Apple can? Are you saying this is the case with Samsung, whose native written language is Hangul.
2) Why is Apple always held to a very different and very unfair and very irrational standard compare to their competitors?
First, I am wonder whether you can understand my argument.
First, my argument is centered in the cost of the Apple Watch. Because the price/cost ratio (easiest ratio) will allow you to assess how profitable a product is and whether or not it is successful. We are not talking about the potential products because they are not on the market yet. If you think 4M is a success. How about the price/cost < 1?
In addition, when you sell a certain amount of them, you just to start to make money since it has been developed for five years. So do you want to make or lose money? Simplest answer ever.
Second, I've never mentioned Pebble or Jawbone are NOT in sale in other countries than America. My original word is "centered in America." So please read sentences carefully before you make a accusation.
Third, you brought up Samsung. English is a worldwide language, while Hangul is local for Korean area. My example for Pebble is opposite to your claim. Because Pebble has english option when it was born but Chinese. Products, like Pebble, need to be localized to fit the countries where the products are selling or started to sell. So, please read the sentence carefully.
I'm not held different standards for Apple. You have no way to evaluate my standards even I state neutrally for Apple.
MY SIMPLEST POINT is that: it is too early states Apple Watch is a successful or failure products without knowing the cost of making this new product. ADDING ONE MORE SENTENCE: Let's Apple report the truth.
I dont know about sales, but personally the Apple Watch is the only Apple product that didn't fascinated me at first sight...
It seems a somewhat half baked product, and I'm waiting for the next iteration before buy one.
I dont know about sales, but personally the Apple Watch is the only Apple product that didn't fascinated me at first sight...
It seems a somewhat half baked product, and I'm waiting for the next iteration before buy one.
Totally agree.
Because Apple has set that standard.