Assume Apple beat earning again at $78B, WS will concern about next quarter growth and stock will drop more. This never ends!
Yeah. Apple really needs to report 1st quarter 2016 earnings at the same time to counter this reporting trend. /s
Hey Wall Street. We know growth cannot go on forever but can't you, at least, figure out that looking for clues in the supply industry does not just indicate production downturns. Apple is constantly tweaking and reassigning component supply. Suppliers get better yield as they gain experience with specialized product production. Apple would be stupid to not respond to these factors in real time.
I think it is going to be hard to top the change in form factor sales that the 6 and 6+ engendered as thats a lot of people cycling their phones with that change over. I see the newer iPhones not being significantly different as to elicit that amount of sales in the latest quarter. I think it will have sales in the 60-65 million mark.
One of the problems is that Apple cannot continue the high percentage changes in increased revenue as it gets bigger and this subjectively makes people upset.
All that being equal, I am surprised Apple hasn't brought back a lot more of their own stock while the price is so low placing a harder floor under their own stock price. If they have and the price is still this low.....interesting times.
Cheers Dr Hawk
I don't think anyone is expecting the same level of unit sales growth this year vs. last year, which benefitted from the pent-up demand for larger screen phones. However, that doesn't mean that reasonable unit growth isn't possible. A large % of iPhone installed base did not upgrade to the "6 line" in FY2015 - not because they didn't like it but rather they are on contracts/installments, or just believe in upgrading every 2-3 years. My family is one, and we will be upgrading to the 6s later this year. Only a minority upgrade every year. That may increase with programs like Apple's iPhone Upgrade program (many offered by carriers in place of "subsidies"), but given those programs are relatively new it may limit the impact in the near term.
Apple's biggest headwind financially in FY2016 is USD exchange rate, which continues to grow against majority of other currencies.
Apple is in their best position ever as a company. - Top tier leader of the most important product in current times, with majority profits. Smartphones are more important to many than any other product/device they own - they are not going away anytime soon, and most people will not suddenly decide for this most important device that they want to "downgrade". Overall small % of total market, so room to grow & take share for years to come. - Top tier leader in computing (Mac + iPad), with majority profits. New products in each category. Overall small % of market, so room to grow & take share. - Brand new product category with Apple Watch & estimates are it has had a respectable Gen 1 introduction (likely 10M-15M in first year of sales). Owning the top tier of wearables already. Great potential in this market looking at a 5+ year horizon - easily could be 50-100M units per year with high margin before then. Big accessory potential. - Increased push into Enterprise with key Tier 1 partnerships - Increasing focus & new product in the home entertainment / automation market. Long-term potential to be a solid category (though not to level of iPhone, computing, AW). - Industry leader in mobile CPU (and likely soon GPU) development, which is shared across all product lines. Well positioned for next 10 years in this area & ability to apply to new product opportunities as they emerge - Solid growth in services business, with a new product this year in new Apple Music service (although overall App Store approach needs focus to enable better applications, especially for Mac and iPad). - Hands down, no question, best ecosystem in their market & getting better each year.
This doesn't mean that Apple doesn't have some cracks they need to address: - App Store. Developers aren't developing comprehensive apps, and this is most noticeable in iPad (as for Mac they have the direct alternative). Changes to give developers a better engagement with their customers, and better financial return for long-investment apps is necessary (trial period, customer feedback other than reviews, allow paid upgrades, etc). Hopefully the appointment of Phil Shiller to this area will help here. - Quality of new s/w releases hasn't been good in the last few years, though iOS9 & El Captain show improvements - Product launches are not as clean as they used to be (AW & the on-line only experiment, Apple Music, ATV and the lack of remote app) - We are getting to the point where the base storage on the devices really could use a bump.
There will be a problem in identifying people by name due to the USA laws regarding employment confidentiality. However, with your permissions, I will forward your post to a news service that is highly interested in Asian tech news. They may follow up and do interviews.
That sounds good. looking forward. Investors need to know Apple Board has found a genius but they haven't invited him to takeover the CEO role - to the detriment of apple products, apple shares and the world at large.
If this is supposed to be funny - it's not. But if Henney is actually serious (and I think he is) - this is the most hilarious thing I've ever read!!! You've found a genuius? OMG! That's awesome!!!! Not! 2% of the worlds population are geniuses - that's 2 out of every 100. Perhaps they should all be offered CEO positions? LOL
Your loser friend is nothing special and you are delusional! If he's as much like Steve Jobs as you say he is, you should tell him that he'd better get to work building his own company (like Steve did) because nobody apart from you Henney, is dumb enough to hand him the reins of ANY existing company. It's the most ridiculous suggestion that I've ever heard! Your original post Henney now holds the unofficial title for the dumbest thing that's ever been posted to this forum - and believe me - that's a hard title to win!
1. Apple reports great earnings. 2. Wall Street says the earnings are great but what about next quarter? 3. Tim Cook reports conservative guidance. 4. Wall Street uses Apple's guidance to 'prove' that next quarter will be tepid 5. Wall Street says sales for the quarter will be weak according to supply checks 6. Apple reports great earnings proving supply checks were wrong. 7. Wall Street says the earnings are great but what about next quarter?
........
Wall street can follow that pattern FOREVER. And forever discount Apple's value. How does Apple stop this? This has been going on for over 3 years. Ever since Tim Cook took over Wall Street has kicked the can down the road each quarter saying impending doom is coming.
How can Cook stop this cycle of death?
1. Stop giving guidance. If there is no guidance then Wall Street will have no choice but to reward Apple for the CURRENT earnings. Many companies like Google don't give guidance for the next quarter.
2. Stop giving product unit detail. No more giving Mac, iPhone, and iPad units. From now on only give total revenue for hardware, software, services, and other. Giving detail just gives Wall Street another data point to nitpick. iPhone sales may be amazing but if iPad sales are down Wall Street will focus only on iPad. No other company reports unit sales. Why should Apple? Right now Apple is getting punished for the 6+ canibalizing iPad sales. That is ridiculous since 6+ has a much higher gross margin and profit margin than iPad. If Apple just reports hardware revenue than Wall Street will have no choice to admit revenue growth.
3. Attack and refute rumors and supply chain checks promptly. The longer you let these lies fester the more likely someone else will jump on the bandwagon and report their supply checks. There is no reason that Apple can't hire a staff of 10 people to write press releases a few times a year to counter these lies from the far east.
4. Hold analysist responsible for the lies they spread. If Apple blows out earnings they should call out the analysist BY NAME who spread these false stories about weak supply chain. Right now there is no penalty for reporting lies because Apple does nothing. Imagine if Cook began his conference call like this:
Tim Cook: Thank you. Apple once again had a record breaking quarter, our best quarter ever. We reported the most even iPhone units, Mac units, revenue, and profit in the history of our company. I've stated many times before that rely on supply chain checks to measure demand is foolish. The following are analysist who cited weak supply chain checks as the reason for iPhone weakness this quarter:
Tony Salore, TME partners Jimmy Zany, Pyrmid Investments Jack Tommy, Bank of America .......................
Again let me repeat that relying on supply chain checks as a measure of sales is misleading. My only hope is these supply chain stories have not mislead many to make investment decisions.........BAM
Honest to god. I don't understand who would thumb down this post, unless you are just an Apple hater.
That sounds good. looking forward. Investors need to know Apple Board has found a genius but they haven't invited him to takeover the CEO role - to the detriment of apple products, apple shares and the world at large.
If this is supposed to be funny - it's not. But if Henney is actually serious (and I think he is) - this is the most hilarious thing I've ever read!!! You've found a genuius? OMG! That's awesome!!!! Not! 2% of the worlds population are geniuses - that's 2 out of every 100. Perhaps they should all be offered CEO positions? LOL
Your loser friend is nothing special and you are delusional! If he's as much like Steve Jobs as you say he is, you should tell him that he'd better get to work building his own company (like Steve did) because nobody apart from you Henney, is dumb enough to hand him the reins of ANY existing company. It's the most ridiculous suggestion that I've ever heard! Your original post Henney now holds the unofficial title for the dumbest thing that's ever been posted to this forum - and believe me - that's a hard title to win!
You can say whatever you want. I will be waiting for the other guy to come back after he forwarded the piece to them. Sure, there are many geniuses. How about this one-> a large birthmark on his face, sleeping on the couch and was spotted by Henry Lim, the facilities manager in Apple Singapore. The whole campus knew who the guy was when the search committee was carrying out the observations.
You've fixated on Tim Cook as being the one to take on Wall Street's analysts. However, anything he says to influence the stock price is considered financial guidance of some sort and opens him or the company to legal action. Personally, except for Lee Iacocoa, who saved Chrysler from bankruptcy by dint of her personal charisma and effort, I don't know of a single CEO or president who came close to what you suggest Tim Cook needs to do. I don't even recall Steve Jobs taking on that role—even though he certainly had charisma.
I have seen other tech CEOs and presidents try to present new products with the charm, power and charisma in the manner of Steve Jobs, and fail totally. It takes a special kind of person to be a powerful public face for a company. For Apple that was Steve Jobs, and to some extent, John Hodgman.
Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer did a horrible job as Microsoft's public face. HP has suffered much the same fate as Microsoft. A good CEO or president doesn't necessiarily make a good public face. I don't know how Apple can solve the Wall Street analysts problem, that's way above my pay grade, but I'm sure, in their own way, Apple is working on a solution.
Apple's outstanding business success, and its continuing outstanding success has no precedent. There's been many one-shot wonders, and more then a few companies that managed to go a long for a while but never match their earlier success; take Kodak, or Polaroid or Xerox, or Blackberry for examples. Apple has not been like them but the fear by Wall Street is it too may not sustain its success.
I honestly believe, if given the opportunity, Phil Schiller can be successful as the public face for Apple. I always get a sense of excitement / passion when he talks about Apple and its products.
You've fixated on Tim Cook as being the one to take on Wall Street's analysts. However, anything he says to influence the stock price is considered financial guidance of some sort and opens him or the company to legal action. Personally, except for Lee Iacocoa, who saved Chrysler from bankruptcy by dint of her personal charisma and effort, I don't know of a single CEO or president who came close to what you suggest Tim Cook needs to do. I don't even recall Steve Jobs taking on that role—even though he certainly had charisma.
I have seen other tech CEOs and presidents try to present new products with the charm, power and charisma in the manner of Steve Jobs, and fail totally. It takes a special kind of person to be a powerful public face for a company. For Apple that was Steve Jobs, and to some extent, John Hodgman.
Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer did a horrible job as Microsoft's public face. HP has suffered much the same fate as Microsoft. A good CEO or president doesn't necessiarily make a good public face. I don't know how Apple can solve the Wall Street analysts problem, that's way above my pay grade, but I'm sure, in their own way, Apple is working on a solution.
Apple's outstanding business success, and its continuing outstanding success has no precedent. There's been many one-shot wonders, and more then a few companies that managed to go a long for a while but never match their earlier success; take Kodak, or Polaroid or Xerox, or Blackberry for examples. Apple has not been like them but the fear by Wall Street is it too may not sustain its success.
Apple has found the special person in Singapore. He's a genius. He has a birthmark on the left of his face which is slightly protruded. They have tested him. he is 29 years old this year. Believe me, when I say he is a carbon copy of steve jobs except for his accent.
That sounds good. looking forward. Investors need to know Apple Board has found a genius but they haven't invited him to takeover the CEO role - to the detriment of apple products, apple shares and the world at large.
If this is supposed to be funny - it's not. But if Henney is actually serious (and I think he is) - this is the most hilarious thing I've ever read!!! You've found a genuius? OMG! That's awesome!!!! Not! 2% of the worlds population are geniuses - that's 2 out of every 100. Perhaps they should all be offered CEO positions? LOL
Your loser friend is nothing special and you are delusional! If he's as much like Steve Jobs as you say he is, you should tell him that he'd better get to work building his own company (like Steve did) because nobody apart from you Henney, is dumb enough to hand him the reins of ANY existing company. It's the most ridiculous suggestion that I've ever heard! Your original post Henney now holds the unofficial title for the dumbest thing that's ever been posted to this forum - and believe me - that's a hard title to win!
I might just suspect you are working for apple trying to put down top secret rumours. Look at the way your sentences are. Open fire straight at me.
So what? I am not working for apple. And more importantly, I do not have a contract with them in any way, form or shape.
That sounds good. looking forward. Investors need to know Apple Board has found a genius but they haven't invited him to takeover the CEO role - to the detriment of apple products, apple shares and the world at large.
If this is supposed to be funny - it's not. But if Henney is actually serious (and I think he is) - this is the most hilarious thing I've ever read!!! You've found a genuius? OMG! That's awesome!!!! Not! 2% of the worlds population are geniuses - that's 2 out of every 100. Perhaps they should all be offered CEO positions? LOL
Your loser friend is nothing special and you are delusional! If he's as much like Steve Jobs as you say he is, you should tell him that he'd better get to work building his own company (like Steve did) because nobody apart from you Henney, is dumb enough to hand him the reins of ANY existing company. It's the most ridiculous suggestion that I've ever heard! Your original post Henney now holds the unofficial title for the dumbest thing that's ever been posted to this forum - and believe me - that's a hard title to win!If you
If you work at apple, then good luck. I will be forwarding this post to him and get him to fire you on his first day reporting as trainee-CEO.
If this is supposed to be funny - it's not. But if Henney is actually serious (and I think he is) - this is the most hilarious thing I've ever read!!! You've found a genuius? OMG! That's awesome!!!! Not! 2% of the worlds population are geniuses - that's 2 out of every 100. Perhaps they should all be offered CEO positions? LOL
Your loser friend is nothing special and you are delusional! If he's as much like Steve Jobs as you say he is, you should tell him that he'd better get to work building his own company (like Steve did) because nobody apart from you Henney, is dumb enough to hand him the reins of ANY existing company. It's the most ridiculous suggestion that I've ever heard! Your original post Henney now holds the unofficial title for the dumbest thing that's ever been posted to this forum - and believe me - that's a hard title to win!If you
If you work at apple, then good luck. I will be forwarding this post to him and get him to fire you on his first day reporting as trainee-CEO.
I'm a little surprised that they give you access to a computer connected to the Internet. Do you have special speech to text software you use for posting, or do they let you out of the straight jacket for a few minutes each day?
Why don't you have this self-proclaimed "genius" post a message here to introduce himself and share with all of us his vision for the company? No? Hmmm...okay, how about a picture? How about some evidence of any kind to back up your claims?
I was thinking of starting a poll to see who people thought was a bigger loser - you or your friend - and then I remembered that your "genius" is imaginary and you show many signs of being mentally incompetent, delusional and perhaps even outright insane!
LOL! Do you honestly think this is the way people become CEO's of ANY company - never mind the most successful company on the planet? If so - there really is only one word to describe you. Delusional.
You've fixated on Tim Cook as being the one to take on Wall Street's analysts. However, anything he says to influence the stock price is considered financial guidance of some sort and opens him or the company to legal action. Personally, except for Lee Iacocoa, who saved Chrysler from bankruptcy by dint of her personal charisma and effort, I don't know of a single CEO or president who came close to what you suggest Tim Cook needs to do. I don't even recall Steve Jobs taking on that role—even though he certainly had charisma.
I have seen other tech CEOs and presidents try to present new products with the charm, power and charisma in the manner of Steve Jobs, and fail totally. It takes a special kind of person to be a powerful public face for a company. For Apple that was Steve Jobs, and to some extent, John Hodgman.
Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer did a horrible job as Microsoft's public face. HP has suffered much the same fate as Microsoft. A good CEO or president doesn't necessiarily make a good public face. I don't know how Apple can solve the Wall Street analysts problem, that's way above my pay grade, but I'm sure, in their own way, Apple is working on a solution.
Apple's outstanding business success, and its continuing outstanding success has no precedent. There's been many one-shot wonders, and more then a few companies that managed to go a long for a while but never match their earlier success; take Kodak, or Polaroid or Xerox, or Blackberry for examples. Apple has not been like them but the fear by Wall Street is it too may not sustain its success.
Apple has found the special person in Singapore. He's a genius. He has a birthmark on the left of his face which is slightly protruded. They have tested him. he is 29 years old this year. Believe me, when I say he is a carbon copy of steve jobs except for his accent.
if he really does exist and is, as you're trying to elude to, a clone of Steve Jobs - it's just another asian knock-off.... He's an inferior copy of something amazing that was created in the USA! Perhaps he'd be a good fit at one of the Chinese smartphone manufacturers. Have they all invited him to be their CEO's...? Shouldn't there be a bidding war going on? Perhaps we should skip the next election and just invite him to be the President of the United States? Or North Korea if he doesn't want to travel overseas...
Your posts make me laugh! Do you say things like this in real-life? Do you get laughed at a lot or just a little?
Apple has found the special person in Singapore. He's a genius. He has a birthmark on the left of his face which is slightly protruded. They have tested him. he is 29 years old this year. Believe me, when I say he is a carbon copy of steve jobs except for his accent.
if he really does exist and is, as you're trying to elude to, a clone of Steve Jobs - it's just another asian knock-off.... He's an inferior copy of something amazing that was created in the USA! Perhaps he'd be a good fit at one of the Chinese smartphone manufacturers. Have they all invited him to be their CEO's...? Shouldn't there be a bidding war going on? Perhaps we should skip the next election and just invite him to be the President of the United States? Or North Korea if he doesn't want to travel overseas...
Your posts make me laugh! Do you say things like this in real-life? Do you get laughed at a lot or just a little?
I don't find anything laughable???
You should be angry with the apple ceo search committee. NOT ME.
Comments
Hey Wall Street. We know growth cannot go on forever but can't you, at least, figure out that looking for clues in the supply industry does not just indicate production downturns. Apple is constantly tweaking and reassigning component supply. Suppliers get better yield as they gain experience with specialized product production. Apple would be stupid to not respond to these factors in real time.
Apple's biggest headwind financially in FY2016 is USD exchange rate, which continues to grow against majority of other currencies.
Apple is in their best position ever as a company.
- Top tier leader of the most important product in current times, with majority profits. Smartphones are more important to many than any other product/device they own - they are not going away anytime soon, and most people will not suddenly decide for this most important device that they want to "downgrade". Overall small % of total market, so room to grow & take share for years to come.
- Top tier leader in computing (Mac + iPad), with majority profits. New products in each category. Overall small % of market, so room to grow & take share.
- Brand new product category with Apple Watch & estimates are it has had a respectable Gen 1 introduction (likely 10M-15M in first year of sales). Owning the top tier of wearables already. Great potential in this market looking at a 5+ year horizon - easily could be 50-100M units per year with high margin before then. Big accessory potential.
- Increased push into Enterprise with key Tier 1 partnerships
- Increasing focus & new product in the home entertainment / automation market. Long-term potential to be a solid category (though not to level of iPhone, computing, AW).
- Industry leader in mobile CPU (and likely soon GPU) development, which is shared across all product lines. Well positioned for next 10 years in this area & ability to apply to new product opportunities as they emerge
- Solid growth in services business, with a new product this year in new Apple Music service (although overall App Store approach needs focus to enable better applications, especially for Mac and iPad).
- Hands down, no question, best ecosystem in their market & getting better each year.
This doesn't mean that Apple doesn't have some cracks they need to address:
- App Store. Developers aren't developing comprehensive apps, and this is most noticeable in iPad (as for Mac they have the direct alternative). Changes to give developers a better engagement with their customers, and better financial return for long-investment apps is necessary (trial period, customer feedback other than reviews, allow paid upgrades, etc). Hopefully the appointment of Phil Shiller to this area will help here.
- Quality of new s/w releases hasn't been good in the last few years, though iOS9 & El Captain show improvements
- Product launches are not as clean as they used to be (AW & the on-line only experiment, Apple Music, ATV and the lack of remote app)
- We are getting to the point where the base storage on the devices really could use a bump.
My two cents.
Your loser friend is nothing special and you are delusional! If he's as much like Steve Jobs as you say he is, you should tell him that he'd better get to work building his own company (like Steve did) because nobody apart from you Henney, is dumb enough to hand him the reins of ANY existing company. It's the most ridiculous suggestion that I've ever heard! Your original post Henney now holds the unofficial title for the dumbest thing that's ever been posted to this forum - and believe me - that's a hard title to win!
I say we take off and nuke the entire sog from orbit...it's the only way to be sure.
It it doesn't matter if Apple exceeds another record, analysts will complain about the current quarter.
Honest to god. I don't understand who would thumb down this post, unless you are just an Apple hater.
You can say whatever you want. I will be waiting for the other guy to come back after he forwarded the piece to them.
Sure, there are many geniuses. How about this one-> a large birthmark on his face, sleeping on the couch and was spotted by Henry Lim, the facilities manager in Apple Singapore. The whole campus knew who the guy was when the search committee was carrying out the observations.
So what? I am not working for apple. And more importantly, I do not have a contract with them in any way, form or shape.
Why don't you have this self-proclaimed "genius" post a message here to introduce himself and share with all of us his vision for the company? No? Hmmm...okay, how about a picture? How about some evidence of any kind to back up your claims?
I was thinking of starting a poll to see who people thought was a bigger loser - you or your friend - and then I remembered that your "genius" is imaginary and you show many signs of being mentally incompetent, delusional and perhaps even outright insane!
LOL! Do you honestly think this is the way people become CEO's of ANY company - never mind the most successful company on the planet? If so - there really is only one word to describe you. Delusional.
Your posts make me laugh! Do you say things like this in real-life? Do you get laughed at a lot or just a little?
I don't find anything laughable???
You should be angry with the apple ceo search committee. NOT ME.
I am only relaying what I have gathered.