Brean Capital maintains $170 target for Apple stock, sees 'material upside' to iPhone in 2016

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As shares of Apple remain under $100 after recent losses, Brean Capital is standing by its $170 price target, predicting the iPhone will outperform lowered Wall Street expectations in 2016.




Analyst Ananda Baruah said that while the recent "noise" from Apple's supply chain has some merit, the "implications aren't nearly as draconian as feared." His forecast calls for iPhone units to be about flat year over year in 2016, around 230 million units.

Baruah remains bullish on Apple, and reiterated his $170 target price in a note to investors on Monday, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider. His supply chain sources suggest Apple's rumored production cuts are related to the flagship iPhone 6s series, and do not apply across the board.

"In fact, we believe the original 6/6+ builds remain intact, and may have even increased slightly," he wrote.

Baruah also remains confident about the possibility of a new 4-inch iPhone debuting sometime in March and April. He believes a revamped, smaller iPhone could drive an incremental 20 million to 30 million units in calendar year 2016, allowing Apple to achieve about 230 million total units this year.

Previously, Baruah had predicted that Apple would ship about 250 million iPhone units in 2016. Despite his overall sales cuts, he has maintained the $170 target since it was issued last July.

Shares of Apple have gone lower in recent weeks amid rumors from the supply chain that Apple cut iPhone orders for early 2016. Last Thursday, shares of AAPL opened below $100 for the first time since 2014, and have remained below that threshold since.

It's been suggested that demand for Apple's flagship iPhone 6s series has been lower than the company anticipated. Still, other reports indicate that more affordable iPhone models could be picking up slack.

Investors should have a clearer picture on Jan. 26, when Apple will reveal the results of its just-concluded holiday quarter, and also provide guidance for the current March quarter.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 14
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member
    It's worth taking note of the few good analysts. 
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  • Reply 2 of 14
    An overpriced and silly named iPhone 5e should do the trick!
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  • Reply 3 of 14
    According to a new survey that just came out non-Android phone sales grew 33% in China last quarter. Maybe that's why Apple stock is up 1% today. 

    http://fortune.com/2016/01/11/apple-iphone-sales-china/?xid=yahoo_fortune

    incidentally Fitbit stock is down over 8%. I believe it's below the IPO price now.
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  • Reply 4 of 14
    A 170 target seems overly optimistic. I was comfortable getting back in AAPL under 100.00 but I'm certainly not expecting it to be at 170 by this time next year. My recommendation by stock in gun manufacturing, every time Obama speaks my Smith & Wesson stock soars. Olin another winner for me seeing they own Winchester ammunition.

    Whenever they replay that town hall meeting on CNN with Anderson Cooper I can't stop from smiling. 
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  • Reply 5 of 14
    $170? Come on... By what date? Most analysts who were on the high side claimed $150-170 by end of year 2015. That didn't exactly pan out!

    Anyone with the professional title of Analyst should be treated ever skeptically.
    edited January 2016
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  • Reply 6 of 14
    levilevi Posts: 344member
    According to a new survey that just came out non-Android phone sales grew 33% in China last quarter. Maybe that's why Apple stock is up 1% today. 

    http://fortune.com/2016/01/11/apple-iphone-sales-china/?xid=yahoo_fortune

    incidentally Fitbit stock is down over 8%. I believe it's below the IPO price now.
    Fitbit has taken a beating since CES - down more than 30% in the last week. They are a couple of class action suits brewing, and Wall Street wasn't enthusiastic on their new fitness watch. 
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  • Reply 7 of 14
    levi said:
    According to a new survey that just came out non-Android phone sales grew 33% in China last quarter. Maybe that's why Apple stock is up 1% today. 

    http://fortune.com/2016/01/11/apple-iphone-sales-china/?xid=yahoo_fortune

    incidentally Fitbit stock is down over 8%. I believe it's below the IPO price now.
    Fitbit has taken a beating since CES - down more than 30% in the last week. They are a couple of class action suits brewing, and Wall Street wasn't enthusiastic on their new fitness watch. 
    I wonder if this is a similar case to Apple where the reality with the company and the stock performance aren't mirroring each other. 
    levi
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  • Reply 8 of 14
    I see Eric Jackson is nailing Apple again for the massive stock buybacks questioning what good it's done, 

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2016/01/11/the-data-on-apples-failed-4-year-130b-capital-return-program/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix
    aderutter
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  • Reply 9 of 14
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Critical suppliers reported huge gains for the previous quarter: Cirrus up 95% YoY iirc another 45% YUoY, yet the focus was on Cirrus reporting forward a 20% reduction. Maybe the doubling is related to the that previous ramp-up right? So Apple preordered massively to sell everything it could over the holiday: the rumored 90 million build. And now that the holiday is over they're scaling back. 
    edited January 2016
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  • Reply 10 of 14
    The addition of a March iPhone release tailored for Chinese New Year (i am sure that would be an annually recurring thing), will no doubt have significant impact and will help to smoothen out seasonality in their revenue streams.

    Join that with the invention of an annual phone subscription, and you probably have the two most meaningful events this year for Apple's bottomline.

    Most analysts are clueless when it comes to putting actual numbers to these things.
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  • Reply 11 of 14
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    JamesBB said:
    The addition of a March iPhone release tailored for Chinese New Year (i am sure that would be an annually recurring thing), will no doubt have significant impact and will help to smoothen out seasonality in their revenue streams.

    Join that with the invention of an annual phone subscription, and you probably have the two most meaningful events this year for Apple's bottomline.

    Most analysts are clueless when it comes to putting actual numbers to these things.
    A March release will miss this year's NY date:
    "
    Chinese New Year 2016
    • Monday, February 8
      • Year of the Fire Monkey (in 28 days)"
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  • Reply 12 of 14
    joshajosha Posts: 901member
    An overpriced and silly named iPhone 5e should do the trick!
    That actually may help in the many countries which have seen their money fall behind the rapidly rising US$.
    The CDN$ is now only 70 cents per US$. Here the base iPhone6s 16gb is $899 vs $649 in the USA.
    Many other countries, like Au face the same exchange rate caused  price increase in the last year.

    Last summer I replaced my iPhone4 16gb which still worked great after 4.5 years use, for a 5c 16gb at $400.
    I needed the later iOS version for a few needed Apps I use daily. 
    The iPhone6 at $899 was just too expensive and I didn't care for it's larger size. 

    BTW  the 5s is now a reasonable C$599 here.
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  • Reply 13 of 14
    DB mysteriously manages to make these silly bearish calls every year on Apple, and they always time them exactly at the bottom...? What's up with that? Why would their customers listen to their "investment advice" after being burned by wrong calls so many years in a row?

    They are a joke...
    edited January 2016
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