Wall Street adjusts Apple expectations after Tim Cook 'rips the Band-Aid off'

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  • Reply 81 of 117
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,511member
    Facebook is up 12% after hours. Why? Yes they reported good numbers but more importantly they have a good story to tell and they tell it well. What is Apple's story? All we got on the conference call was FX, FX and more FX. Oh and a pretty useless slide about "services" which at this point are mostly App Store and iTunes downloads. Until Apple finds its story and tells it in a compelling way I think the stock is stuck in the mud.
    Easy to sell a story when your future growth prospects are potentially bright.  Not so easy when you have already set unprecedented records for performance and have nowhere to go but down.  (Not in my eyes, that is, but in the eyes of many.)

    So there is no "story to tell" for Apple other than by the numbers.  And yes, the stock will probably be a slow gainer over the coming years, not a juicy growth story as in years past.  There is nothing Tim could say that would change the perception, because the perception is halfway right.
    edited January 2016
  • Reply 82 of 117
    Some people think the earth is flat or the US didn't land on the moon. Explaining things to these people doesn't work because they won't see reason. So why should Tim waste his time with the financial market equivalent?
    BS. Thats what Tim Cook wants to do but he doesn't know how to do it proper. 

    Tim Cook so far has pandered to wall street and its disgusting. Lets see. All those stock buybacks all those dividends. Precisely because Tim Cook hopes it will help the stock. Having lunch with Carl Ichan. Trying to position Apple as something it isn't. Get rid of this fool as CEO. I am tired of his kissing wall street. All of this and the company has lost a couple of hundred billion in value. Good job. So lets see has this helped the stock? Hell NO.
    let me guess -- you're a "long-time" fan. love their products. but now you're...concerned. jobs is dead. innovation gone. did i miss anything, or is that about where you stand?
    edited January 2016
  • Reply 83 of 117

    Facebook is up 12% after hours. Why? Yes they reported good numbers but more importantly they have a good story to tell and they tell it well. What is Apple's story? All we got on the conference call was FX, FX and more FX. Oh and a pretty useless slide about "services" which at this point are mostly App Store and iTunes downloads. Until Apple finds its story and tells it in a compelling way I think the stock is stuck in the mud.
    what's the good FB story? they sell users to advertisers, that's it. 
  • Reply 84 of 117
    thompr said:
    Facebook is up 12% after hours. Why? Yes they reported good numbers but more importantly they have a good story to tell and they tell it well. What is Apple's story? All we got on the conference call was FX, FX and more FX. Oh and a pretty useless slide about "services" which at this point are mostly App Store and iTunes downloads. Until Apple finds its story and tells it in a compelling way I think the stock is stuck in the mud.
    Easy to sell a story when your future growth prospects are potentially bright.  Not so easy when you have already set unprecedented records for performance and have nowhere to go but down.  (Not in my eyes, that is, but in the eyes of many.)

    So there is no "story to tell" for Apple other than by the numbers.  And yes, the stock will probably be a slow gainer over the coming years, not a juicy growth story as in years past.  There is both Tim could say that would change the perception, because the perception is halfway right.
    Still I think Apple's message seems muddied. This morning on CNBC you has hosts scratching their heads saying oh Apple's a services company now? But no not really because they don't sell software as a service (Microsoft) and they're not into advertising (Facebook/Google). That seems to me like Apple is sticking narratives against the wall to see what will stick. Seems like a panic to get people to stop thinking of Apple as a "hardware company".
    palomine
  • Reply 85 of 117
    BS. Thats what Tim Cook wants to do but he doesn't know how to do it proper. 

    Tim Cook so far has pandered to wall street and its disgusting. Lets see. All those stock buybacks all those dividends. Precisely because Tim Cook hopes it will help the stock. Having lunch with Carl Ichan. Trying to position Apple as something it isn't. Get rid of this fool as CEO. I am tired of his kissing wall street. All of this and the company has lost a couple of hundred billion in value. Good job. So lets see has this helped the stock? Hell NO.
    let me guess -- you're a "long-time" fan. love their products. but now you're...concerned. jobs is dead. innovation gone. did i miss anything, or is that about where you stand?
    Innovation isn't gone and no one at this point really cares if Jobs is dead. However Tim Cook isn't a very good messenger and I can't think of many companies were at least one high level member of the leadership wouldn't have taken a pounding by now after shedding over 200 billion in market cap, without any real message change. 

    The reality is Mac sales were down slightly, iPad sales continue to drop even with the introduction of the iPad Pro and Wall Street sees Apple as a one product company. Not only did Apple not meet expectations this time around I don't think they even met their own guidance.

    Loving Apple products and smart investing are in two very different categories. It's perfectly reasonable to look at Apple differently from a product and investing standpoint. 
    edited January 2016 anantksundaram
  • Reply 86 of 117

    Facebook is up 12% after hours. Why? Yes they reported good numbers but more importantly they have a good story to tell and they tell it well. What is Apple's story? All we got on the conference call was FX, FX and more FX. Oh and a pretty useless slide about "services" which at this point are mostly App Store and iTunes downloads. Until Apple finds its story and tells it in a compelling way I think the stock is stuck in the mud.
    what's the good FB story? they sell users to advertisers, that's it. 
    Apple is not in the advertising business so that means advertising is evil. I get it.
    anantksundaram
  • Reply 87 of 117
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,511member
    atlapple said:
    let me guess -- you're a "long-time" fan. love their products. but now you're...concerned. jobs is dead. innovation gone. did i miss anything, or is that about where you stand?
    Innovation isn't gone and no one at this point really cares if Jobs is dead. However Tim Cook isn't a very good messenger and I can't think of many companies were at least one high level member of the leadership wouldn't have taken a pounding by now after shedding over 200 billion in market cap, without any real message change. 

    The reality is Mac sales were down slightly, iPad sales continue to drop even with the introduction of the iPad Pro and Wall Street sees Apple as a one product company. Not only did Apple not meet expectations this time around I don't think they even met their own guidance.

    Loving Apple products and smart investing are in two very different categories. It's perfectly reasonable to look at Apple differently from a product and investing standpoint. 
    Apple met their guidance this time around, narrowly meeting expectations as well.  The problem was that the guidance they gave for "next time around" was significantly below expectations.
    palominenolamacguy
  • Reply 88 of 117
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,976member
    sog35 said:

    1. Streaming movies - like Netflix
    2. LiveTV subs
    3. Home automation/home security
    4. Social platform
    5. Uber-like taxi service (using Apple Cars?)
    6. Search + ads
    7. Expand leasing to iPad, Mac, and Watch
    8. Video sharing like Youtube
    9. Banking, creditcards, 
    Search + Ads? WTF are you smoking. Apple has just about shutdown iAds. Ads are for Google and they rightly get blocked at my router (as does 100+ MS domains). IMHO, Ads are a plague and one way Apple can differentiate itself is NOT to offer Ads.
    Offering Streaming services is nothing more than a MeToo. It will probably make money but it won't make Apple stand out from the crowd.
    As for Banking etc, that would need a totally separate company in many parts of the world.
    The US Banking industry is really backward. Unless Apple can come in and really shake it up (and let a lot of small regional banks go to the wall) it should be a non-starter. State laws make a truly Nationwide bank a real hard thing to setup. The simple act of moving some money from one state to another can end you up in Jail if you don't do it right. That is plain crazy and until the Banking system in the US is totally refomed APPLE should stay well out of it.

    You have to have take a world view with Apple not a US centric one.

    What about Apple starting investing in BioMedical/Life Science? I know Google did with their Verily. It's very promising field for developing Life Science processes to support the Apple Watch for such things: Glucose, Cholesterol monitoring sensors, Pace Maker, Defibrillator integrations and such...
  • Reply 89 of 117
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,511member
    fallenjt said:
    Search + Ads? WTF are you smoking. Apple has just about shutdown iAds. Ads are for Google and they rightly get blocked at my router (as does 100+ MS domains). IMHO, Ads are a plague and one way Apple can differentiate itself is NOT to offer Ads.
    Offering Streaming services is nothing more than a MeToo. It will probably make money but it won't make Apple stand out from the crowd.
    As for Banking etc, that would need a totally separate company in many parts of the world.
    The US Banking industry is really backward. Unless Apple can come in and really shake it up (and let a lot of small regional banks go to the wall) it should be a non-starter. State laws make a truly Nationwide bank a real hard thing to setup. The simple act of moving some money from one state to another can end you up in Jail if you don't do it right. That is plain crazy and until the Banking system in the US is totally refomed APPLE should stay well out of it.

    You have to have take a world view with Apple not a US centric one.

    What about Apple starting investing in BioMedical/Life Science? I know Google did with their Verily. It's very promising field for developing Life Science processes to support the Apple Watch for such things: Glucose, Cholesterol monitoring sensors, Pace Maker, Defibrillator integrations and such...
    Apple has already been investing heavily in this area.  It's going to take time for whatever they are working on to manifest in a product... probably in Apple Watch 3 or so, I'm just guessing.

    Look... we all know that Apple needs a new "hit" product, but everyone needs to understand that if & when they deliver one it won't be a "needle mover" immediately.  Even the glorious iPhone took years to become the *iPhone*.

    If you can't take a long term view with Apple and can't stand a wild ride in the meantime, it's best you look to another stock.
    nolamacguy
  • Reply 90 of 117
    atlapple said:
    let me guess -- you're a "long-time" fan. love their products. but now you're...concerned. jobs is dead. innovation gone. did i miss anything, or is that about where you stand?
    Innovation isn't gone and no one at this point really cares if Jobs is dead. However Tim Cook isn't a very good messenger and I can't think of many companies were at least one high level member of the leadership wouldn't have taken a pounding by now after shedding over 200 billion in market cap, without any real message change. 

    The reality is Mac sales were down slightly, iPad sales continue to drop even with the introduction of the iPad Pro and Wall Street sees Apple as a one product company. Not only did Apple not meet expectations this time around I don't think they even met their own guidance.

    Loving Apple products and smart investing are in two very different categories. It's perfectly reasonable to look at Apple differently from a product and investing standpoint. 
    Simply spot on. 

    I wouldn't be surprised if we see some interesting and radical announcements about the future direction of the company in the next few weeks. 
  • Reply 91 of 117
    thompr said:

    If you can't take a long term view with Apple and can't stand a wild ride in the meantime, it's best you look to another stock.
    That's just a silly comment. (1) You have no idea of whether he owns AAPL, and if so, how long he's owned his stock; (2) Your advice seems tantamount to telling him to buy high and sell low. 
    edited January 2016 cnocbui
  • Reply 92 of 117
    The analysts all seem reasonable here. Cook did well with the messaging overall, I think. 
    Every time I read comments on this forum, no offense, but I keep being taken aback by the naïveté of many posters. They think Tim Cook's messaging can improve stock price or that analysts are not bullish enough. Yes, Cook can boost stock for a few weeks (as he did with his "messaging" about "positive China" in 2015). And an analyst's upgrade can help for a little bit, but all of this can't repair fundamental Apple weaknesses.

    Cook is not a product guy, Cook is not a service guy. He does not understand what makes consumers tick. And analysts, most of the time, are behind the train, too afraid to point where AAPL actually is going, which is down. Safety in numbers. The only analyst who said AAPL goes to $60 got fired. And if anything, the guy is an optimist. 

    Analysts hopes about iPhone 7 catapulting AAPL to $140 are befuddling. How can iPhone 7 be a hit, when what surrounds and supports it, and most importantly cloud services, suck under Cook's management?

    Let me remind you how vitriolic many commenters were here when I insisted that Apple needs to produce iPhones will larger screen sizes back in 2013. Now when you look back, their comments seem very... naive. 
    jackansi
  • Reply 93 of 117
    OK this retweet is really weird. Why would Tony Fadell respond to it? image
    edited January 2016
  • Reply 94 of 117
    OK this retweet is really weird. Why would Tony Fadell respond to it? image
    I think it means zip. Zilch. Except for exactly what he says (i.e., he's very flattered). 
    edited January 2016
  • Reply 95 of 117
    enature said:

    Cook is not a product guy, Cook is not a service guy. He does not understand what makes consumers tick. 
    Cook is not in direct charge of products or services. He's not the marketing guy. He has people doing that who report to him. 

    Go away. 
  • Reply 96 of 117
    OK this retweet is really weird. Why would Tony Fadell respond to it? image
    I think it means zip. Zilch. Except for exactly what he says (i.e., he's very flattered). 
    Odd that he would respond. Especially the day after Apple earnings report when the stock is getting hammered.
  • Reply 97 of 117
    jonljonl Posts: 210member
    Exactly why Tim Cook should stop kissing wall street. Stop giving Apple's money way. Stop buying back stock. Stop meeting with people like Carl Ichan. Stop all that. Stop paying so much attention to wall street Mr. Cook. They don't care about you or apple. Invest into Apple. Build Apple. Stop giving wall street anything.

    Steve Jobs said it best. Paraphrasing... "when we as a company do good, the stock will follow."

    Wall street is greedy. like the poster said. Apple give and gives. and wall street only wants more and more. Enough of this. Apple stop paying attention to this crap.


    The problem is, they have no ideas on how to spend the $200 billion to grow Apple as you would like, and then there are the tax issues. They even ran a commercial in 2013 or 2014 stating they do a very few things, and they do them well. Returning the cash to investors is the thing to do in this situation, because it gives people a reason to buy the stock. It's not just for the benefit of evil Wall Street but also figures into attracting and keeping good people through stock options. The one thing you're right about is that it's been a thankless task, and the underlying problem remains that Apple is a hardware company. Cramer's mantra, "Own Apple, don't trade it" works only if you bought it many years ago. More recent buy-and-holders get to endure multiple 30-40% declines lasting many months at a time, all the while, the real sword of Damocles continues to dangle, because most of their revenue continues to come from the sale of devices.
    apple iigspalomine
  • Reply 98 of 117
    jdnc123jdnc123 Posts: 233member
    foggyhill said:
    jdnc123 said:
    Profits increased and multiples decreased.  It happens all the time, not just with Apple.  Its a rationale response to a slowing growth trajectory.  

    Apple is currently on a negative growth trajectory.  They have more cash than any company in the history of the world and can't grow.  That's the main problem.  All the resources anyone can imagine and they can't muster up an idea to show growth from here.  It's reality until they prove the Street wrong and I got no sense from the conf call that they are prepared to change that view this year.  Frankly, it sounded pathetic and like panic.  Last quarter Cook says no problems in China and now this quarter they are experiencing a slowdown like they've never seen before.  Good fcking hell, everyone and their mother has been saying China was slowing down for a year and yet Cook got caught by surprise by it.  Maybe he didn't see it as early, but given all the datapoints out there that it was slowing he sure as heck could have made some contingencies versus just dismissing only 3 months ago.

    I worry about employee retention.  Anyone who joined the company in the last three years is working for salary only and not stock comp as the options aren't increasing in value like they did in the past. Much easier to argue to yourself that you can kill it at a smaller startup (or at Google based on recent stock performance) if you are a talented engineer by NOT going to Apple.
    It's the rising US dollar that's the main headwind, not China;
    so you fracking predicted the US dollar going up 40% in less than 2 years?
    Well, you should apply to become a god because I don't believe you.

    Nobody expected oil prices dragging the whole planet in a near flatline like that.
    Because no one expected the saudis to be that dumb in their hope of bankrupting those doing oil fracking.

    That Apple kept their sales up with product prices going up that much is kind of a miracle with that kind of Macro headwind.

    That's why Cook emphasized the fact that Apple's current users are not switching to others, that Apple is still gaining users; sales are delayed and not curtailed. That's an important difference.

    BTW, you  didn't answer my argument, just side stepped it and expect I'll forget?
    If a company grows 400% in 2 years and then stays at flatline for the next 8, it's still a much bigger company than a company growing 10% a year over the whole period, yet your criteria would give the stock price of that company in year 7 a incredibly higher value. That's basically what occurs in the case of Google versus Apple, or Facebook vs Apple or just about any tech company in the world versus Apple.
    Actually I did call the oil collapse and run a fund based on that view.  Figured a dollar rise was part of that.

    Apple could have spent a little money to hedge its FX risk.  They chose not to.  I view hedging as de-risking the unknown, not the known.  I guess Apple doesn't think that way and why they got caught with their pants down.  

    Anyone who didnt see that the global economy was running on the fumes of QE-binging, simply had their heads in the sand.  I've been net short in fund and in my personal account that this downturn was coming.  Sadly, Apple was the big long position.  China is a house of cards.  Its been obvious for years.  Tim Cook was the last to know.

    Apple could have used some of its massive cash hoard to diversify years ago into more services or social or search, you names it.  They got so myopically focused on the iPhone, they missed many huge and potential markets they could have competed in and changed the perception or story organically or through m&a.  Why they felt like in the past and even now that there are no possible uses of their cash in the entire world to help them grow this company only Tim Cook knows.  It looks like he simply got caught sleeping on the job.  Anyone who listened to that conference call heard a nonsensical attempt to change the narrative that fell flat on its face (even AAPL's biggest bull Gene Munster said Cook hurt the story by focusing on the services narrative that nobody believes, as they shouldn't).  iTunes sucks.  iCloud sucks.  They have more resources than any company that has ever walked the face of the planet and they can't get software/services working well or grow at all.

    Forget about revenue growth that is impacted by FX.  Unit growth is now negative.  Whose fault is that???



    jackansi
  • Reply 99 of 117
    jdnc123 said:
    foggyhill said:
    It's the rising US dollar that's the main headwind, not China;
    so you fracking predicted the US dollar going up 40% in less than 2 years?
    Well, you should apply to become a god because I don't believe you.

    Nobody expected oil prices dragging the whole planet in a near flatline like that.
    Because no one expected the saudis to be that dumb in their hope of bankrupting those doing oil fracking.

    That Apple kept their sales up with product prices going up that much is kind of a miracle with that kind of Macro headwind.

    That's why Cook emphasized the fact that Apple's current users are not switching to others, that Apple is still gaining users; sales are delayed and not curtailed. That's an important difference.

    BTW, you  didn't answer my argument, just side stepped it and expect I'll forget?
    If a company grows 400% in 2 years and then stays at flatline for the next 8, it's still a much bigger company than a company growing 10% a year over the whole period, yet your criteria would give the stock price of that company in year 7 a incredibly higher value. That's basically what occurs in the case of Google versus Apple, or Facebook vs Apple or just about any tech company in the world versus Apple.
    Actually I did call the oil collapse and run a fund based on that view.  Figured a dollar rise was part of that.

    Apple could have spent a little money to hedge its FX risk.  They chose not to.  I view hedging as de-risking the unknown, not the known.  I guess Apple doesn't think that way and why they got caught with their pants down.  

    Anyone who didnt see that the global economy was running on the fumes of QE-binging, simply had their heads in the sand.  I've been net short in fund and in my personal account that this downturn was coming.  Sadly, Apple was the big long position.  China is a house of cards.  Its been obvious for years.  Tim Cook was the last to know.

    Apple could have used some of its massive cash hoard to diversify years ago into more services or social or search, you names it.  They got so myopically focused on the iPhone, they missed many huge and potential markets they could have competed in and changed the perception or story organically or through m&a.  Why they felt like in the past and even now that there are no possible uses of their cash in the entire world to help them grow this company only Tim Cook knows.  It looks like he simply got caught sleeping on the job.  Anyone who listened to that conference call heard a nonsensical attempt to change the narrative that fell flat on its face (even AAPL's biggest bull Gene Munster said Cook hurt the story by focusing on the services narrative that nobody believes, as they shouldn't).  iTunes sucks.  iCloud sucks.  They have more resources than any company that has ever walked the face of the planet and they can't get software/services working well or grow at all.

    Forget about revenue growth that is impacted by FX.  Unit growth is now negative.  Whose fault is that???



    What an utterly idiotic post. What do you know about Apple and its hedging program? Have you checked the Notes to their financial statements? Do you know that no sane company 'hedges' all its expected future sales? That's speculation, not hedging. Heck, why not Apple get out of the business of selling iPhones, hire you as their advisor, and get into the business of FX speculation?

    'Global economy running on the fumes of QE-binging?' Care to explain how the dollar, the currency of the country the INVENTED the QE (and every variant of it) and implemented it for the longest time, is so strong? 'China is a house of cards?' What about the tens of millions of iPhones and Macs and iPads and Watches Apple has been selling there? Who's been buying them? The Chinese central bank?

    Take your pseudo-economic wares elsewhere, to some nut-case forum of conspiracy theorists. 
    edited January 2016 palomine
  • Reply 100 of 117
    I think it means zip. Zilch. Except for exactly what he says (i.e., he's very flattered). 
    Odd that he would respond. Especially the day after Apple earnings report when the stock is getting hammered.
    What did he have to lose by saying that? I think he's just having some silly fun. 
    hmm
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