Strong iPhone SE launch suggests 15M incremental 2016 sales for Apple, RBC says

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  • Reply 21 of 37
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,054member
    I would buy Galaxy S7 if it's not running android or windows.
    6Sgoldfish
  • Reply 22 of 37
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    tzeshan said:
    5150iii said:
    Let me throw this out there as I've been following this quietly thus far. It's great that the 4" phone crowd is getting a powerful update but I wonder if Apple plans to bring a 3rd choice(4") to the flagship lineup. If they happen to release a 4" ip7 I wonder how that will go over with the SE crowd that thought this was there only bone to grab for the near future and went for it. I guess it's not a big deal I just remember I replaced my crushed 3G with a full price 4 in August of that year(2011?) only to see the 4S come out shortly after. That event has informed my decisions on phone purchases since then and while I am still in the ecosystem I am buying the cheaper model if it's close to a new release.

    There will not be a 4" ip7 this fall.  
    I believe there will be a 4" 7 by Spring though. And with that in mind, it means they will have it designed and ready to go in time to make the Fall lineup if necessary (i.e. strong demand for the 4"). 

    However, at only $399, I would have no problem upgrading to a $599 7, if Apple decides to roll it out with the larger iPhone updates. Buying it on a no-interest monthly plan would be another way to seamlessly upgrade as well. 

    Though I tend to think Apple may be planning a Spring update cycle for the 4" phone not only to boost sales during a slow quarter, but to take the burden off of trying to get three different models to market in significant numbers at once. 
    edited April 2016 jes42
  • Reply 23 of 37
    robjnrobjn Posts: 283member
    Apple should be selling over 100 million of IPhone SE's not 15M!!!
    They will certainly sell more than 40M.

    There are a number of things the analysts have failed to take into account.

    They will sell close to 40M in the first 3 months!
    jes42
  • Reply 24 of 37
    robjnrobjn Posts: 283member

    5150iii said:
     I wonder if Apple plans to bring a 3rd choice(4") to the flagship lineup. If they happen to release a 4" ip7 I wonder how that will go over with the SE crowd that thought this was there only bone to grab for the near future and went for it.
    The next 4 inch screened phone will have a new form factor with no chin. It will be really small! We won't see it for a couple of years yet.
    jes42
  • Reply 25 of 37
    eideardeideard Posts: 428member
    Ordered mine 3/28 - 16gb, shipped today.
  • Reply 26 of 37
    bluefire1bluefire1 Posts: 1,302member
    My wife couldn't wait for this phone to come out. 
  • Reply 27 of 37
    One of the main things I use my iPhone for is an iPod and for a camera . I had to upgrade my 5 to the 6 after spilling coffee on it. The six is still in perfect shape but I will be switching back to the 4" as soon as I can justify a new phone. The grip on the six is just not as good nor is the way it fits in your pocket. I really liked the power button on top and the little round volume buttons too. I have an I pad for when I want the bigger screen. Also the next iPhone model out (7) may have no headphone mini jack and I have about 5+ different pair of headphones I like to use.
  • Reply 28 of 37
    macguimacgui Posts: 2,360member
    I don't understand
    Of course you don't. Because you're an analyst. So you say.

    I don't understand how 15M iPhones sold can be considered a failure, because some 'analysts' say "because we said so".

    When Apple spent more money on a product than it made, that's a failure, not because some ass@ says that should have been 100M not 15M and clicks his heels three times to show his market savvy.

    I think the SE will do well. There won't be a 4" 7 this year. Maybe in the September after next. I'm curious as to the upgrade cycle of the SE. I can see it being every March, so that it gets the latest tech after the flagship line. I'm good with that.

    Space Gray has always been my go-to color but I might try Gold this time. I'm not sure if I'll like the white bezel, but there are vinyl covers for that if it bothers me.

    I thought I'd be keeping my 5s for the next few years, until I couldn't get a battery anymore or update to the a current OS. So glad the 4" phone has been upgraded.
  • Reply 29 of 37
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member
    How to define success? The SE is a replacement for Apple's selling the previous generation 5S. If the SE sells more than the 5S did last quarter, then it's a success.

    Of course, if your goal is to proclaim failure, then you can just make up whatever arbitrary sales projection you want, and denounce Apple when they fail to meet your pixie dust number.


  • Reply 30 of 37
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    Stopped by an Apple Store last night with the intent to buy two silver 64GB sim free iPhone SEs. I was told there are no 64GB iPhones anywhere in Los Angeles to be had, and they have no idea when to expect them. The online store says earliest availablitlity at any Apple Store in the LA area is April 29! 

    The salesperson said that the demand for the SE had taken them by surprise. He did offer that they had just received an assortment of 16GB models, and I stopped him with a firm "no" and he aknowledged that nobody else wanted the 16GB phones either.

    i certainly didn't expect the demand to be this high after the initial week, which is why I waited. But after talking to this Apple guy, I'm pretty convinced Apple screwed up another launch. At least they are seemingly out of touch with what their customers want and will buy. Clearly there's some evidence here that the majority of customers realize and know 16GB is no longer enough. I'm not saying there's not still a role for a 16GB phone, especially in an entry level phone like the SE, but Apple woefully underestimated the demand for 64GB phones here. If they're sold out in LA and NY, this is a bit of a problem. A good problem, but a problem none the less.

    Maybe I'll have better luck buying off of eBay. Just wish the out of warranty 5c and 5s weren't crippled by recent iOS updates while I wait to replace them.

    I think Apple is going to learn a lot from this little experiment, and I hope we see the results of this data realized in the launch of the 7.
    edited April 2016
  • Reply 31 of 37
    cintos said:
    I don't understand how 15M is considered a success, especially at a lower than expected price and gross margin, when there are 300 Million people using 3 or more years old 4-inch iPhones, tens of millions of people in China and India alone becoming "middle class" each year, and a ton of people who regrettably upgraded to larger screen iPhones because 4-inch form factor hasn't been updated in years. Apple should be selling over 100 million of IPhone SE's not 15M!!!
    Well, the article actually says they will sell 40 Million SEs. After cannibalization they are suggesting net 15 Million more iPhones in total during 2016.
    I meant that the incremental sales from iPhone SE should be over 100 million. Management has been touting for years that people prefer 4-inch phones. Where are those people now? By Fiksu data, Apple has literally sold less than a million units of SE during the 7 days . We all know what happens to demand after launch week (remember apple watch? remember 6S, which matched 6 adjusting for china launch time only to then fell off much behind 6?). Management needs to come out and explain somehow why SE hasn't sold better in the launch week. Otherwise, I'm not sure what the unwillingness of people to upgrade their 3+ year-old 4-inch phones say about the upgrade cycle.
  • Reply 32 of 37
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    cintos said:
    Well, the article actually says they will sell 40 Million SEs. After cannibalization they are suggesting net 15 Million more iPhones in total during 2016.
    I meant that the incremental sales from iPhone SE should be over 100 million. Management has been touting for years that people prefer 4-inch phones. Where are those people now? By Fiksu data, Apple has literally sold less than a million units of SE during the 7 days . We all know what happens to demand after launch week (remember apple watch? remember 6S, which matched 6 adjusting for china launch time only to then fell off much behind 6?). Management needs to come out and explain somehow why SE hasn't sold better in the launch week. Otherwise, I'm not sure what the unwillingness of people to upgrade their 3+ year-old 4-inch phones say about the upgrade cycle.
    ah. another "Apple needs to..." guy. hah. yeah. welcome. 
  • Reply 33 of 37
    netmagenetmage Posts: 314member
    cintos said:
    Well, the article actually says they will sell 40 Million SEs. After cannibalization they are suggesting net 15 Million more iPhones in total during 2016.
    I meant that the incremental sales from iPhone SE should be over 100 million. Management has been touting for years that people prefer 4-inch phones. 
    You have a quote or source for "management"?
  • Reply 34 of 37
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    mac_128 said:
    Stopped by an Apple Store last night with the intent to buy two silver 64GB sim free iPhone SEs. I was told there are no 64GB iPhones anywhere in Los Angeles to be had, and they have no idea when to expect them. The online store says earliest availablitlity at any Apple Store in the LA area is April 29! 

    The salesperson said that the demand for the SE had taken them by surprise. He did offer that they had just received an assortment of 16GB models, and I stopped him with a firm "no" and he aknowledged that nobody else wanted the 16GB phones either.

    i certainly didn't expect the demand to be this high after the initial week, which is why I waited. But after talking to this Apple guy, I'm pretty convinced Apple screwed up another launch. At least they are seemingly out of touch with what their customers want and will buy. Clearly there's some evidence here that the majority of customers realize and know 16GB is no longer enough. I'm not saying there's not still a role for a 16GB phone, especially in an entry level phone like the SE, but Apple woefully underestimated the demand for 64GB phones here. If they're sold out in LA and NY, this is a bit of a problem. A good problem, but a problem none the less.

    Maybe I'll have better luck buying off of eBay. Just wish the out of warranty 5c and 5s weren't crippled by recent iOS updates while I wait to replace them.

    I think Apple is going to learn a lot from this little experiment, and I hope we see the results of this data realized in the launch of the 7.
    If its like other times, initiallly they same a far date (which corresponds with initial stocks), but as production ramps up, adjusts for demand, they pretty quickly get it right.
    Watch delivery times were also way way in the future and most people got it much sooner, except a few models.
    I'd day by the 20th, they'll be stock of everything everywhere.
  • Reply 35 of 37
    It's impossible to post something negative about Apple on here and not get hated, so save it. I think we can all agree on one thing: iPhone SE was intended to convince existing 4-inch users to upgrade (~250 million). 40 million units doesn't even come close to it. It seems that people would rather use 3-year-old phones...
  • Reply 36 of 37
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    It's impossible to post something negative about Apple on here and not get hated, so save it. I think we can all agree on one thing: iPhone SE was intended to convince existing 4-inch users to upgrade (~250 million). 40 million units doesn't even come close to it. It seems that people would rather use 3-year-old phones...
    No it wasn't (at least not that you can prove). It was most likely intended to offer a better entry level phone to expand Apple's market, as they stated upfront in the announcement. If Apple fails to offer a premium 4" phone by next Spring, then we can revisit the speculation behind this move. Apple knows it's a 3 year old design, and they know it doesn't measure up to the 6s. And they know some customers want that, and will continue holding out until they get it. Yes customers would rather continue using their previous "flagship" phones, regardless of the price, until Apple offers them a new premium "flagship" 4" to up grade to ... or doesn't. 
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