dasanman69 said: There won't be 72-78 million iPhones available on launch day, and even if they make that many they'll eventually sell them.
Exactly. They will make just enough for preorders and launch weekend then it will be 2-3 week delivery schedule until they reach a sustainable supply/demand equilibrium.
I'd be very surprised if Apple overestimated orders for the iPhone 7. I think they've got a pretty good gauge at what demand will be.
+1
With Tim being a supply-chain expert, I'm sure any production orders placed by Apple stem from strong numeric modeling, not wishful thinking. As to whether the number of "72 - 78 million" is accurate... it's just a rumor. But whatever the true number is, I trust Apple's ability to forecast demand.
Apple will tell us a quarter ahead of time on how many phones they expect to sell by giving us their projected revenue. If it is higher than previous years, then we know they are expecting to hit a homerun.
I do not understand the iPhone 6s complaint. They projected down and hit their numbers. Their projections were very accurate.
Apple has been very good at estimating demand for new iPhones, it's the 'analists', whom pull numbers out of their rears, that consistently get it wrong.
The only big miss by Apple recently was grossly UNDERestimating the demand for the SE.
If they're releasing the iPhone 7 or what is pretty much an iPhone 6ss that looks a lot like the iPhone 6 then Apple has grossly overestimated their orders. They're in for a wide awakening.
If the article is based on rumors than I guess that would make the "wide awakening" a rumor also. By the way what is a wide awakening?
I'd tell you, but it would contravene the Appropriate Use policy for work computers.
Nobody has mentioned it yet, but won't the relatively new iPhone upgrade program have a positive effect on sales? Isn't this the first opportunity for those in the program to upgrade? I can't see where those people already in the program will not take advantage of the ability to upgrade to the latest and greatest, even if the the new iPhone is only evolutionary rather than revolutionary.
All anecdotal of course and not a very large sample size but I do not know of many people on iPhone 5 or 5s, never mind the 6/6s, that are that interested in upgrading to the 7. Most feel their phones are good enough as is, although some have heard rumours of a possible edge to edge screen model that may released next year and are waiting for that.
Don't worry. If they are going to sell that many iPhone 7's, pretty quickly the analysts will be claiming they're going to sell twice that, just so Business Insider gets to run screaming headlines about how Apple missed projections.
And people here who predict that the 7 will gave no worthwhile new features, will quickly claim they ALWAYS supported the 7, when it blows up as a big sales success.
And when it does blow up, the media will spend 6 full months as they did with the iPhone 5 and 5C and 5S, claiming it's a FLOP.
And then when the media FINALLY admits it wasn't a FLOP (as they claimed the SE was), they'll say it cannibalized sales or some other made-up bullshit.
In other words, the media will be unrelentingly negative, nobody in blogs or this site will EVER admit they were wrong, and Apple will go on making money and doing business as if the company were wearing noise-canceling headphones and ignoring all this chatter, including MY CHATTER.
Apple may be gambling that people coming off contract will want to upgrade, but if the form factor remains the same and the "upgrades" aren't what people really want (e.g. longer battery life), then many may wait for the 2017 model which seems to be what analysts are getting positively giddy about.
Apple has been very good at estimating demand for new iPhones, it's the 'analists', whom pull numbers out of their rears, that consistently get it wrong.
The only big miss by Apple recently was grossly UNDERestimating the demand for the SE.
They gross underestimated the demand for phones with more than 16GB. The base phone should have 64GB in this day and age. Especially for an Apple product. You use to get value for your money. Not so any more. Do i feel like my 6s Plus is worth the $1055 I paid for it with Apple Care? NOT AT ALL!
The only reason I upgraded was because I dropped my 5s from 12ft up when I was working in a ceiling and it shattered (not just the screen) on the tile below. If they had come out with the SE sooner I would have got the 64GB SE that still has a 2+ week wait time. You can get 16GB SE's all day.
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The only big miss by Apple recently was grossly UNDERestimating the demand for the SE.
I'd tell you, but it would contravene the Appropriate Use policy for work computers.
Nah, I'm holding out for the 9 in 2019. That's going to be the real upgrade...
And people here who predict that the 7 will gave no worthwhile new features, will quickly claim they ALWAYS supported the 7, when it blows up as a big sales success.
And when it does blow up, the media will spend 6 full months as they did with the iPhone 5 and 5C and 5S, claiming it's a FLOP.
And then when the media FINALLY admits it wasn't a FLOP (as they claimed the SE was), they'll say it cannibalized sales or some other made-up bullshit.
In other words, the media will be unrelentingly negative, nobody in blogs or this site will EVER admit they were wrong, and Apple will go on making money and doing business as if the company were wearing noise-canceling headphones and ignoring all this chatter, including MY CHATTER.
Because complaining about it? Is useless lol.
On the other hand, "Find My iPhone" takes on a whole new level of utility for some users.
Not to mention "vibration mode"...
The only reason I upgraded was because I dropped my 5s from 12ft up when I was working in a ceiling and it shattered (not just the screen) on the tile below. If they had come out with the SE sooner I would have got the 64GB SE that still has a 2+ week wait time. You can get 16GB SE's all day.