Forecast says Apple iPhone shipments will drop to 227M in 2016, resume growth in 2017

AppleInsider

iPhone shipments may actually slip from about 232 million in 2015 to 227 million this year, marking the first such decline in Apple history, according to a research forecast published on Wednesday.

This contrasts with a predicted smartphone industry growth of 3.1 percent to over 1.48 billion, IDC said. The world's leading smartphone platform -- Android -- is expected to advance 6.2 percent to 1.24 billion, though unlike Apple's iOS, Android is represented by numerous separate smartphone vendors including Samsung, HTC, Motorola, Xiaomi, and Huawei.

Apple is experiencing a "pivotal moment," IDC commented, arguing that the company should be able to resume growth in 2017, helped by things like the cheaper iPhone SE, and a trade-in program that encourages people to spend on upgrades they might otherwise hold off on. The company is also said to be making "inroads in China with development in tier 1 cities," and delving deeper into burgeoning markets like India and the Middle East.

iPhone shipments are in fact anticipated to grow to over 267 million by 2020. Along the way these may skew more heavily towards larger Plus models, moving from a 26 percent share this year to 32 percent, according to IDC.

Although there are still some three quarters left in 2016, making IDC's estimates tenuous, Apple reported its first year-over-year decline for the iPhone in the March quarter. Some analysts have been pessimistic about the company's ability to resume growth until the release of new iPhones in the fall.

foggyhill

Didn't dear o' Kuo say 200M, one will be wrong, or both, and then people will just disregard all the BS and go to the next element of crap these companies guys put out.

512ke

snoozy iPhone 7 will sell like meh. Shiny new iPhone 8 will sell a ton. Duh. 

Rayz2016

sigh…

Is there no other company on the planet doing anything?

jason98

Apple is clever bringing iPhone SE to the rescue. It might just keep the sales in units very comparable to the previous year, but profit margins will be way lower.

schlack

The funny thing is that even if they only sold 200M phones going forward for many years, and continued to invest their profits in share buybacks, their PE ratio would approach 0, unless the stock went up substantially in tandem. So while growth investors may be running to greener pastures, there's definitely an excellent play for value investors...even if sales/revenue growth doesn't materialize.

ericthehalfbee

Rayz2016 said:

sigh…

Is there no other company on the planet doing anything?

No.

volcan

schlack said:

So while growth investors may be running to greener pastures, there's definitely an excellent play for value investors...even if sales/revenue growth doesn't materialize.

Some people perceive AAPL as undervalued, but if the stock never moves higher, it isn't really value investing. The dividend has a very low payout ratio, so that isn't much of a value either. You'd have to own 200,000 shares to earn $100K per year pretax. I made money on AAPL a number of years ago when it was a growth stock, but I probably wouldn't buy it in this market, although you could have made 10% on your investment had you bought last month when the stock was down to $90. 

tzeshan

IDC analysts are low level.  Apple iPhone never meant to grab market share in general.  The ipHone starting price is $650.  Apple market is in a unique position no other Android smartphone copycats can match not even Samsung.  Although the list price of Galaxy S7 is the same as iPhone, many vendors are selling it as buy one get one free.  So the actual price of S7 is only $325 which is even cheaper than iPhone SE.  

artdent

volcan said:

schlack said:

So while growth investors may be running to greener pastures, there's definitely an excellent play for value investors...even if sales/revenue growth doesn't materialize.

Some people perceive AAPL as undervalued, but if the stock never moves higher, it isn't really value investing. The dividend has a very low payout ratio, so that isn't much of a value either. You'd have to own 200,000 shares to earn $100K per year pretax. I made money on AAPL a number of years ago when it was a growth stock, but I probably wouldn't buy it in this market, although you could have made 10% on your investment had you bought last month when the stock was down to $90. 

To earn $100K/year in dividend payouts you'd have to own approx. 44,000 shares.

volcan

artdent said:
To earn $100K/year in dividend payouts you'd have to own approx. 44,000 shares.

You are right because it is quarterly

michael_c

volcan said:

schlack said:

So while growth investors may be running to greener pastures, there's definitely an excellent play for value investors...even if sales/revenue growth doesn't materialize.

Some people perceive AAPL as undervalued, but if the stock never moves higher, it isn't really value investing. The dividend has a very low payout ratio, so that isn't much of a value either. You'd have to own 200,000 shares to earn $100K per year pretax. I made money on AAPL a number of years ago when it was a growth stock, but I probably wouldn't buy it in this market, although you could have made 10% on your investment had you bought last month when the stock was down to $90. 

You need to recalc your numbers on the number of shares required to generate $100k - don't need nearly that many shares to generate that amount.

rogifan_new

And why do we care what IDC says?

VisualSeed

A quarter of a billion phones sold a year.... despite where you think the market is going...  just let that sink in for a moment. 

tzeshan

Since Apple does not sell any iPhone for less than $400, Apple does not have that market share to lose.  So what happens is at the high end which Apple has almost total share just stopped growing for one month or two.  The consumers are smart.  They won't pay the same dollar for the thieving Google Androi Samsung phones or else.  

cropr

tzeshan said:

Since Apple does not sell any iPhone for less than $400, Apple does not have that market share to lose.  So what happens is at the high end which Apple has almost total share just stopped growing for one month or two.  The consumers are smart.  They won't pay the same dollar for the thieving Google Androi Samsung phones or else.  

Well I wish it were true.  in Q1 2016 the market share of Android grew 7% in the top 5 European countries.  2.6% of this 7% came from Apple users switching from iOS to Android.  With the iOS market share just below 20%, this means that 1 out of 8 iOS users switched to Android.  Luckily for Apple these figures were compensated by roughly 1% Window phone switchers, reducing the market share decline to 1.6%.