I'm sorry, but the premise of this post is simply wrong. There has been no decline. Last year there was a blip, with the big sales of big phones, and this year the sales are back on the former growth curve. No decline!!
Thanks for the chart. This should be required reading for anyone before they repeat the mantra of "peak iPhone". Clearly the large screen iPhone 6 was a phenomenal year, but the trend upwards from 2014 to 2016 (estimate) seems to be more normal. Of course the iPhone will eventually peak, but the question is if this one year down following the iPhone 6 is it. You just can't tell after one year, or even 2. No doubt growth will be slow going forward, as the developed markets saturate & it is more about upgraders, but there are still emerging markets to be tapped, iOS still gains more than it loses in absolute numbers, etc.
It is important to remember that the PC market itself didn't really start to decline until there were devices which started to take away some of the computing share - smartphones and tablets. And within that market, the premium Mac line has continued to grow, despite its (significantly) higher ASP. So, is there a device emerging that will take away the use of the smartphone? There doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon. Wearables like Apple Watch can take some tasks like notifications & quick messaging, but those devices are more about a new type of computing/use. And who is leading that market now anyways...?
As to what will return iPhone to growth, there are both near-term quick wins & the longer view (next 10 years). Just to note a few... Near term: - Increasing basic storage to 32GB, with a 128GB upsell, can trigger a lot of upgrades. May have some slight impact on ASP, but it is lesser of two evils. - Camera magic. The most important single h/w (with s/w) area, and seems to be a continuing focus. Lots of room for industry to improve here. - Desirability. Apple is an aspirational brand, so they do need to really wow in the "lust" factor. If rumours are to be believed, this will be the 2017 iPhone.
Longer term: - Personal assistant - but with on-device "smarts". Everyone talks about "AI" or machine learning with personal assistant as future, but seem to believe it can only be done from the cloud. Apple's differential machine learning is the first example. On-device capabilities, like integrating DSP for better voice recognition, personal learning, context awareness, etc - all areas where the custom silicon will have an advantage. The 100% available, extremely low latency, high-bandwidth wireless future is an evolving story, and as many can attest to, has a long way to go. More on-device smarts will be an Apple differentiator.
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It is important to remember that the PC market itself didn't really start to decline until there were devices which started to take away some of the computing share - smartphones and tablets. And within that market, the premium Mac line has continued to grow, despite its (significantly) higher ASP. So, is there a device emerging that will take away the use of the smartphone? There doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon. Wearables like Apple Watch can take some tasks like notifications & quick messaging, but those devices are more about a new type of computing/use. And who is leading that market now anyways...?
As to what will return iPhone to growth, there are both near-term quick wins & the longer view (next 10 years). Just to note a few...
Near term:
- Increasing basic storage to 32GB, with a 128GB upsell, can trigger a lot of upgrades. May have some slight impact on ASP, but it is lesser of two evils.
- Camera magic. The most important single h/w (with s/w) area, and seems to be a continuing focus. Lots of room for industry to improve here.
- Desirability. Apple is an aspirational brand, so they do need to really wow in the "lust" factor. If rumours are to be believed, this will be the 2017 iPhone.
Longer term:
- Personal assistant - but with on-device "smarts". Everyone talks about "AI" or machine learning with personal assistant as future, but seem to believe it can only be done from the cloud. Apple's differential machine learning is the first example. On-device capabilities, like integrating DSP for better voice recognition, personal learning, context awareness, etc - all areas where the custom silicon will have an advantage. The 100% available, extremely low latency, high-bandwidth wireless future is an evolving story, and as many can attest to, has a long way to go. More on-device smarts will be an Apple differentiator.