Unexpected success of iPhone SE predicted to drop Apple's average selling price to $637

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 35
    YvLyYvLy Posts: 80member
    Why is it that analysts NEVER get the bigger picture?
  • Reply 22 of 35
    The impact of iPhone SE (on unit sales, revenues, ASP, margins and earnings) depends upon the alternative smartphone decisions customers would have made if Apple had not offered the SE. Some SE buyers would have held onto their old phones, some would have purchased 5S's, others 6's and 6s's, and still others would have bought Android phones. Without having a handle on these figures, it all comes down to a guess. It is a fun game to play, but it is easy to persuade ourselves that we know more than we do -- as the analyst cited in the article seems to have done, when relying on a survey of domestic demand to forecast global sales. Because iPhone SE was backordered early in the quarter, it seems either that Apple underestimated demand or created a waiting line to encourage buyers to purchase more expensive iPhone models.
  • Reply 23 of 35
    Moron analysts, they talk ASP when Avg profit/pc is where it's at. 

    Given that Apple can use a paid for production line and tooling, is able to get good prices for the A9 processor and memory because it's volume is shared with the 6s (making total volumes for these components closer to those seen with the blow out volumes of the 6).

    The screen production line and tooling is also amortized and the component price should be significantly less than it cost in the 5 or 5s as its no longer cutting edge.

    It is conceivable that Apple will earn as much profit on the 5SE as it does on the 6/6s line. 
    edited July 2016 baconstang
  • Reply 24 of 35
    The only thing stopping me from buying one is there is no 128GB option. I have been sticking to my 64GB iPhone 5 and I need just slightly more capacity in the same small form factor. I use lots of big apps and store offline maps and educational videos. Now I have to manage my videos if i want to snap some pictures which is a hassle. The design of the iPhone 5 series is classy to me.
    edited July 2016
  • Reply 25 of 35
    linkmanlinkman Posts: 924member
    They are basing the analysis on a sample size of 500? That margin of error is probably very high. Apple currently sells 5 different iPhone models with a total of 12 different capacity/model choices. With the poor basis accepted by analysts it probably wasn't a scientific sampling method.
  • Reply 26 of 35
    ifailifail Posts: 463member
    I love my SE. I recently made the downgrade after getting tired and annoyed of constantly being weighed down by my 6S Plus. The size is truly a blessing when you compare the two. 

    Front camera quality is mediocre at best when not in daylight. The difference is night and day during FaceTime but that's the tradeoff to having the form factor that I want
  • Reply 27 of 35
    baconstangbaconstang Posts: 551member
    prof said:
    apple ][ said:
    Unexpected?

    Only to the clueless perhaps. Why are analysts so clueless?

    I've been saying since day one that the SE would sell a whole lot. That was obvious to anybody with a clue.
    Yeah, I also don't get it. Only because some -- admittedly loud -- people have size complexes and require compensation doesn't mean everyone appreciates ridiculously big phones. Okay, Apple actually wanted to get into the lower price segment, but actually I do think people would actually pay a premium for a highest end small iPhone -- I certainly would.
    I think the main things they're compensating for are bad eyesight and stubby fat fingers.
  • Reply 28 of 35
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,532member
    I hope they don't just take this as customers want cheaper phones. Me and several of my colleagues just didn't like the trend of big ridiculous phones. I traded my 6 in for the SE because I hated the size and the power button on the side was a deal breaker. I want an "Air" like option, a truly updated form factor with all of the modern components. The SE has everything I want, but just wish it was thinner and had force touch. I would pay $600 + for that.
    Fully agree with this and think that, going forward, the smallest form factor will continue to have the latest processor and, as soon as they can, the latest features (force touch, etc.). So the idea that there will be only two updated phones this fall seems wrong - the SE is not a second-tier phone, it is just the smallest form factor of the current technology as much as is feasible. When the 7 (or 6SE, or whatever) comes out, the 5SE (or whatever new name it has) will also get the latest A series processor. FWIW, I also bought an SE because I wanted the smaller size and better battery. And, moreover, this accelerated my upgrade cycle whereas I would normally have waited until the fall for the next phone to update my 6. Anything that helps smooth the blockbuster release cycle must be helpful as the logistic hurdles on the iPhone releases must be killer.
    I doubt Apple will do that.  I hope they continue with the SE getting an update to "almost 7 specs" next spring. It would be foolish for Apple, from a business perspective, to release a much lower cost phone to the flagships, with all the same features, at the same time. 
    baconstang
  • Reply 29 of 35
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,532member
    TurboPGT said:
    apple ][ said:
    Unexpected?

    Only to the clueless perhaps. Why are analysts so clueless?

    I've been saying since day one that the SE would sell a whole lot. That was obvious to anybody with a clue.
    Its almost as if Apple knows what they're doing and releases products that sell.
    Easy now. Let's not go overboard...Apple was clearly just lucky...
    /s
    baconstang
  • Reply 30 of 35
    esaruohoesaruoho Posts: 60member
    Over here in Finland, an Apple iPhone SE 64Gb Space Gray costs between 589€ ( $650,11 ) and 599€ ( $661,15 ). And the Finnish Apple Store will sell me one for 599€.

    Every cent and euro counts for me, because I'm actually saving up to upgrade from my iPhone 5 64Gb to an iPhone SE 64Gb by collecting bottles and cans.

    I'm also documenting the process on my blog, http://deposit4se.tumblr.com. I've been on this project since 5th of May, and today I have 14,7% together out of the total cost of the iPhone SE.

    If Apple were to lower the price of an SE 64Gb, I'd be able to reach my goal quicker.

    A glass bottle is 0,10€, a can is 0,15€, a plastic bottle 0,5L is 0,20€ and a 1,5L bottle is 0,40€..

    Got a long ways to go but I think it's worth it. Friends keep joking Apple will be up to SE8 or something by the time I gets the dough together, but I have a feeling it'll be SE2 or SE3 instead.
    edited July 2016
  • Reply 31 of 35
    profprof Posts: 76member
    I'm still waiting for Apple to be hit with a clue bat that people are waiting for other products going back to the roots, too... Please Apple, take my money for a real MBP with non-glare retina display, replaceable parts and ethernet socket...
    mjhnl
  • Reply 32 of 35
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member
    I was in the happy minority on these forums predicting the SE would be a huge seller. 

    But. Prices for phones are going down. It's the iPad effect. This time instead of just sitting at the top, Apple seems to be accepting reality and offering lower priced phones 

    well I say, good for Apple. Let Apple cannibalize their sales rather than somebody else. 


  • Reply 33 of 35
    k2kwk2kw Posts: 1,767member
    TurboPGT said:

    Fully agree with this and think that, going forward, the smallest form factor will continue to have the latest processor and, as soon as they can, the latest features (force touch, etc.). So the idea that there will be only two updated phones this fall seems wrong - the SE is not a second-tier phone, it is just the smallest form factor of the current technology as much as is feasible. When the 7 (or 6SE, or whatever) comes out, the 5SE (or whatever new name it has) will also get the latest A series processor. FWIW, I also bought an SE because I wanted the smaller size and better battery. And, moreover, this accelerated my upgrade cycle whereas I would normally have waited until the fall for the next phone to update my 6. Anything that helps smooth the blockbuster release cycle must be helpful as the logistic hurdles on the iPhone releases must be killer.
    You're a little off the mark. The SE will remain a compelling offer in the lineup, but not too compelling. It will not get an update this fall, and won't be updated any sooner than next March.
    Apple cannot afford to update their lowest price tier at the same time as the highest priced tier. They simply don't do this. Not with iPhone, nor iPad, nor any product. Apple will release the iPhone 7 and 7 Plus...if you want the latest and greatest, you have to pay for it. If size is more important to you than features, than you'll have to settle for SE, or wait for that product to finish its own separate upgrade cycle.
    I don't expect an update to the SE till 2018.   But it may turn out to be Apple's biggest seller this year since it still has a headphone jack if the 6/6s and 6+/6s+ continues to struggle and the 7 disappoints.
    edited July 2016
  • Reply 34 of 35
    dysamoriadysamoria Posts: 2,269member
    Unexpected that people actually respond favorably to being able to comfortably hold and operate a phone in one hand...?

    i like the screen space, but my iPhone 6s is anything but comfortable. I'd have bought the 4" if it had come sooner, while I was being pushed to buy a new phone (by bloated websites, and unsupported Safari/iOS).
  • Reply 35 of 35
    g-newsg-news Posts: 1,107member
    They still can't meet demand here in Switzerland. Some of the biggest contract resellers have had customers waiting for their SE to ship literally for months! Including myself. It seems Apple is artificially keeping supply low to try and get ppl to buy the 6s. Alas, a lot of ppl don't want a 4.7" phone.
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