Pegatron CEO slams analysts, 'cautiously optimistic' about Apple iPhone 7 sales

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  • Reply 21 of 32
    thedba said:
    sog35 said:
    I don't understand why people don't upgrade their phones at least every 2 years.

    Waiting 3 or 4 years to upgrade is DUMB. Unless you are totally desperate for money and can't even buy 3 meals a day, there really is no reason not to upgrade every other year.

    Cost of getting an iPhone every 2 years:

    1. Buy iPhone for $650
    2. After 2 years sell iPhone for $300
    3. Total cost of iPhone for 2 years was $350
    4. Comes out to less than 50 cents a day, $15 a month, $175 a year

    I mean seriously. 50 cents a day!  For something you use 12+ hours a day, every day. You are basically paying less than 4 cents an hour to use an iPhone. Go show me something else that gives so much value for such a cheap price.  People pay $6 for a cup of Starbucks coffee that is gone in 10 minutes.

    So lets say you hold your iPhone for 3 years. How much do you actually save?

    1. Buy iPhone for $650
    2. After 3 years sell iPhone for $200
    3. Total cost of iPhone for 3 years is $450
    4. Comes out to 41 cents a day

    So to save LITERALLY 9 cents a day you are willing to hang on to an out dated phone? Really? NINE CENTS A DAY you are willing to sacrifice a ton of extra features, slower CPU, and a battery that is half way into the grave? Nine. Cents.

    Or if you hold onto the phone for 4 years. You will get about $100 for trade in. That's 38 cents per day.

    So you are willing to have an ANCIENT phone that won't even run the latest version of iOS with a battery that dies in 6 hours?  To save 12 cents a day?  TWELVE CENTS!!!! Come on. Get real.


    Now if you are in poverty condition I understand wanted to save 9 cents a day or 12 cents a day to hold on to an old iPhone. But for the rest of us it makes ZERO sense, or CENTS.  Upgrading every 2 years is SMART. Trying to save a few pennies a day for a lesser experience and losing productivity is DUMB.
    That's like saying you're the only one who knows what they're doing. 
    An actual refutation of any or all of his points will advance the discussion.  

    Right now, you're merely proving his implicit argument that a lot of people don't know wtf they're doing.
    edited September 2016
  • Reply 22 of 32

    sog35 said:
    sog35 said:
    I don't understand why people don't upgrade their phones at least every 2 years.

    Waiting 3 or 4 years to upgrade is DUMB. Unless you are totally desperate for money and can't even buy 3 meals a day, there really is no reason not to upgrade every other year.

    Cost of getting an iPhone every 2 years:

    1. Buy iPhone for $650
    2. After 2 years sell iPhone for $300
    3. Total cost of iPhone for 2 years was $350
    4. Comes out to less than 50 cents a day, $15 a month, $175 a year

    I mean seriously. 50 cents a day!  For something you use 12+ hours a day, every day. You are basically paying less than 4 cents an hour to use an iPhone. Go show me something else that gives so much value for such a cheap price.  People pay $6 for a cup of Starbucks coffee that is gone in 10 minutes.

    So lets say you hold your iPhone for 3 years. How much do you actually save?

    1. Buy iPhone for $650
    2. After 3 years sell iPhone for $200
    3. Total cost of iPhone for 3 years is $450
    4. Comes out to 41 cents a day

    So to save LITERALLY 9 cents a day you are willing to hang on to an out dated phone? Really? NINE CENTS A DAY you are willing to sacrifice a ton of extra features, slower CPU, and a battery that is half way into the grave? Nine. Cents.

    Or if you hold onto the phone for 4 years. You will get about $100 for trade in. That's 38 cents per day.

    So you are willing to have an ANCIENT phone that won't even run the latest version of iOS with a battery that dies in 6 hours?  To save 12 cents a day?  TWELVE CENTS!!!! Come on. Get real.


    Now if you are in poverty condition I understand wanted to save 9 cents a day or 12 cents a day to hold on to an old iPhone. But for the rest of us it makes ZERO sense, or CENTS.  Upgrading every 2 years is SMART. Trying to save a few pennies a day for a lesser experience and losing productivity is DUMB.
    You remind of the dude who performed cost analysis for everything we did in the office. o   We found him annoying but appreciated what his numbers really portrayed. 
    Numbers tell the truth.

    Some people fell like they are saving a ton of money by holding onto a phone for 3 or 4 years. The reality is they are saving very little or sometime even LOSING money because of lack of warranty coverage and loss of productivity (slowing apps, and low battery life)

    If you own an iPhone for 2 years it costs about 48 cents per day.
    $650 less $300 trade in = $350 cost divided by 2 years = 48 cents per day

    If you own an iPhone for the 3rd year it will cost you 27 cents a day for the third year.
    $650 less $200 trade in = $450 cost divided by 3 years = 48 cents per day first 2 years, then 27 cents for 3rd year.

    The 4th year will also cost you about 27 cents a day.

    So is it REALLY worth saving a mere 20 cents a day to carrying around a dinosaur phone that is much slower, has a battery that last 50% less? Also remember that the old phone won't be under warranty, so you could lose 100% of your trade in with an accident. Then you save ZERO money. If you buy new phones every 2 years, you will be covered by warranty 50% of the time. If you keep older phones you will only be covered 33% or 25% of the time.

    So switching phones every 2 years versus every 3 or 4 years only cost about $70 more a year.

    $70 a year. That's it. That's basically a week's worth of Starbucks for many people. 

    The problem is most people don't take into consideration:

    1. The depreciation of the phone and trade in value. They forget that their phone is losing value while keeping it 3 or 4 years.
    2. Don't take into consideration warranty coverage of the 1st year of a new phone
    3. Don't take into consideration a battery going down hill in year 3 or 4. But then they say 'I can just replace the battery for $100'. Guess what? $100 is MORE than the amount you save sticking with an old phone.

    4. Don't take into consideration the loss of productivity from older/slower devices. If a new phone saves me even 5 minutes a week, it pays for itself. In contrast if an older phone slows me down even 1 minute a day, I'm losing money.
    Excellent points.
  • Reply 23 of 32
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,511member
    thedba said:
    sog35 said:
    I don't understand why people don't upgrade their phones at least every 2 years.

    Waiting 3 or 4 years to upgrade is DUMB. Unless you are totally desperate for money and can't even buy 3 meals a day, there really is no reason not to upgrade every other year.

    Cost of getting an iPhone every 2 years:

    1. Buy iPhone for $650
    2. After 2 years sell iPhone for $300
    3. Total cost of iPhone for 2 years was $350
    4. Comes out to less than 50 cents a day, $15 a month, $175 a year

    I mean seriously. 50 cents a day!  For something you use 12+ hours a day, every day. You are basically paying less than 4 cents an hour to use an iPhone. Go show me something else that gives so much value for such a cheap price.  People pay $6 for a cup of Starbucks coffee that is gone in 10 minutes.

    So lets say you hold your iPhone for 3 years. How much do you actually save?

    1. Buy iPhone for $650
    2. After 3 years sell iPhone for $200
    3. Total cost of iPhone for 3 years is $450
    4. Comes out to 41 cents a day

    So to save LITERALLY 9 cents a day you are willing to hang on to an out dated phone? Really? NINE CENTS A DAY you are willing to sacrifice a ton of extra features, slower CPU, and a battery that is half way into the grave? Nine. Cents.

    Or if you hold onto the phone for 4 years. You will get about $100 for trade in. That's 38 cents per day.

    So you are willing to have an ANCIENT phone that won't even run the latest version of iOS with a battery that dies in 6 hours?  To save 12 cents a day?  TWELVE CENTS!!!! Come on. Get real.


    Now if you are in poverty condition I understand wanted to save 9 cents a day or 12 cents a day to hold on to an old iPhone. But for the rest of us it makes ZERO sense, or CENTS.  Upgrading every 2 years is SMART. Trying to save a few pennies a day for a lesser experience and losing productivity is DUMB.
    That's like saying you're the only one who knows what they're doing. 
    That's exactly Sog's typical point of view.
  • Reply 24 of 32
    sog35 said:
    BxBorn said:
    sog35 said:
    BxBorn said:
    sog35 said:
    BxBorn said:
    Carrier incentives of $650 on an iPhone 6 or 6s is probably driving a lot of 7 sales. I bought 2 because of the incentive. My wife and I each had a 6 so it was a no brainer to get the 7 for $100 each. However, had there been no incentive, we'd be riding the 6 until it fell apart.
    There are carrier incentives every year. Since the very beginning of the iPhone.

    The truth is after 2 years any phone is falling apart, especially the battery. This has not changed.
    And if you hold you phone for 3 years you are really pushing it, and you will be missing out on a ton of good stuff.
    4 years? Forget about it, unless you are the most basic of all users.

    I see no reason NOT to upgrade every 2 years or even every year. If you buy an iPhone for $650 and after 2 years get $300 for trade in you are literally only paying 50 cents a day for your phone. Or $15 a month. Tell me what other device do you use EVERY DAY, 12 hours a day, 365 days a year?  

    Its crazy that people are willing to spend $500 a year on Starbucks coffee and not $200 a year on a smartphone. Makes ZERO sense.


    yes, carriers have incentives but I've not seen anything to the likes of $650 on a trade in.

    Define "use"? I wouldn't say I "use" my phone 12 hours a day, it's sits on my desk or my table at home most of the day. I make a few calls, text, get mails and every once in a while take pictures. So I don't actually use it anywhere near 12 hours a day. Based on my own personal usage, there's no reason why I wouldn't expect it to be working just fine after 2 years.

    It's not loaded up with 200 apps with all types of background activity and I don't watch hours of Netflix on it so why shouldn't I get 2+ years out of it? I think the advancements made on devices are intriguing but, when I think about how much it will actually impact my day to day and if it's worth the cost, it's usually not worth it for me to spend the money.

    My own personal choice would be to save the money on the phone and put it towards a new, updated TV. I use my TV a hell of a lot more and appreciate a beautiful big screen on a TV far more than anything offered on a smartphone.


    You miss the point. 

    You do use your phone 12 hours a day, because at any moment you may receive an emergency phone call or text. Or a super important email from your employer. So you'd rather save 9 cents a day instead of getting a current phone? Well that's your decision, but IMO that is not a wise move unless your phone usage is like a feature phone user.

    As far as incentives, you need to read the fine print:

    1. You need to TRADE IN your iPhone6/6+ to get the 'free' iPhone7. Those devices are worth at least $300-$400 each
    2. Then you need to sign up for TWO YEARS on an expensive plan

    This basically the same thing as what the carriers were doing with the $199 iPhone 2 year subsidy. But instead of charging you $199 they take your phone that is worth MORE than $199 from you.

    So the incentives THIS YEAR are actually WORSE than before.

    In my case I could get a 'free' iPhone7 from Tmobile. But that would mean signing up to a plan that cost $40 more a month than what I currently have. So no the incentives are not all that great. They are basically giving you $200-$300 more for your trade in than market price, but then they get that $300 back by forcing you to sign up for 2 years on an expensive plan.
    2. Then you need to sign up for TWO YEARS on an expensive plan -> not true, my plan on Verizon is staying exactly the same. As a matter of fact, the line access fee for one line is going down from $40 to $20 because that line was still on a 2yr subsidized contract but eligible for an early upgrade (now on device payment plan). My bill will actually be a couple of dollars cheaper because the the two phones combined payment will be less than $20 thanks to the $650 on my trade in. Where as before the trade in, I had the $40 line access fee on one line, that's now reduced to $20 and combined, the device payment for both phones is around $14. The combined line access fee and 2 device payments comes to $34. That gives me an additional savings of $144 over the 24 months. I'm actually SAVING money - if I did the normal $300 trade in, it would be costing me MORE MONEY because while the line access fee would still be reduced to $20, the device payments would be more than doubled and my new bill each month there after would exceed the pre-upgrade bill by around $10 a month.

    I did all of the math and that's why I jumped on the $650 incentive verse waiting for my phone to begin to show signs of failing before I upgraded.

    You want to get a new phone every 2 years, knock yourself out but, don't speak to people as if your somehow this genius that knows so much more than everyone else. In my specific situation where I take care of the things that I own so that they do last and last reliably, I'm not going to upgrade and spend the money "just because". I have my cell phone, I have my work cell phone, I have a phone on my desk, I have email and iMessage on my iPad so I'm not concerned about ever being off the grid and unreachable in an emergency.



    Bottom line is you were being RIPPED off the last couple years on your phone plan. Its not that you are saving money now with the new plan. Its that you are finally being charged close to a fair rate. A $40 access fee on one line is ridiculous. But let me guess you got your iPhones for $199 under that plan? Right? So you were paying more because your phone was getting subsidized.

    You are NOT getting $650 for your trade in. PERIOD. Want proof? Trying going to Verizon and tell them you want $650 cash for your iPhone 6. They will laugh in your face. The truth is you are only getting about $400 for your trade in. They are getting the other $250 by locking you into a 2 year plan. How is this any different from subsides in previous years? It isn't. The deals today are no better than before. The truth is the cost of data has gone down significantly because of competition from Tmobile and the maturity of the LTE network. 

    I never called myself a genius. So you are arguing against MATH not me. You save 20 cents a day sticking with a phone for 3 years or 4 years. That is MATH. If you want to argue with Math go right ahead.
    I just gave you math that demonstrated that by doing the trade in and capitalizing on the $650 incentive, my bill is actually going down. What part of that are you not understanding? I don't care if I'm given actual cash or not...

    Here's what my current state looks like right now, I have two brand new iPhone 7's and a lower monthly bill for service from Verizon all for giving them two phones that were two years old and as you've been saying, we're becoming increasing more unreliable each day.

    2 brand new iPhone 7s for $100 each out of pocket and lower monthly bill...there's no way that you could see that as a bad deal. The idea of having to stay with Verizon for 2 years means nothing to me because I've been with for well over 10 years and don't plan on going anywhere. Through various jobs I've had AT&T, T Mobile and Sprint and I've found their services to be, IMHO based on experience, not as good as Verizon which is why I feel confident that I won't be leaving them anytime soon.

    In any other scenario, I would agree with what you've laid out but what you've laid out wasn't my specific situation. You took my saying "until they fell apart" literally. Of course if at any point they started to show signs decline in performance I would look to upgrade. But, that's not the case...they work just fine so at this particular moment it time there wouldn't be any need for me to upgrade unless there was a good reason and that good reason was not really having to come out and a cheaper monthly bill.  
  • Reply 25 of 32
    sog35 said:
    BxBorn said:
    Carrier incentives of $650 on an iPhone 6 or 6s is probably driving a lot of 7 sales. I bought 2 because of the incentive. My wife and I each had a 6 so it was a no brainer to get the 7 for $100 each. However, had there been no incentive, we'd be riding the 6 until it fell apart.

    I see no reason NOT to upgrade every 2 years or even every year. If you buy an iPhone for $650 and after 2 years get $300 for trade in you are literally only paying 50 cents a day for your phone. Or $15 a month. Tell me what other device do you use EVERY DAY, 12 hours a day, 365 days a year?  

    Its crazy that people are willing to spend $500 a year on Starbucks coffee and not $200 a year on a smartphone. Makes ZERO sense.


    Couldn't agree with this more.  I've used this same reasoning with people before.  
  • Reply 26 of 32
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,368member
    Good God! A common sense attitude actually got reported?
  • Reply 27 of 32
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,368member
    sog35 said:
    lkrupp said:
    Good to see Apple suppliers chiming in and fighting back. Maybe Apple should try fighting back too. When financials are announced start calling out the nay-sayers by name and wonder publicly if investors should continue doing business with them.
    I 100% agree with this.

    Its time for Cook to take of the kitty gloves and come out swinging during conference calls and even on Twitter during the quarter.

    There is no reason for Cook not to call out analysist, especially when its based on pure lies.  Like Kuo stating the only reason iPhone7 is doing so well is because the Note7 is blowing up. Or the stupid report saying sales of the iPhone7 are down 25% around the world besides the USA.

    A CEO like Musk goes on the offensive when stupid lies like that appear about Tesla. Cook should do the same for Apple.  Its been 4 years since I began investing in this stock and Cook is still allowing these weaklings to strong arm Apple. Its pathetic.
    But that's why Elon Musk is so beloved to investors. Being a BS artist himself, he doesn't let some other BS artists spin some BS tales about his company's numbers. Dudes like Kuo are basically calling a whole bunch of other people liars because he believes he knows more about Apple's sales better than anyone else. I agree that Tim Cook probably shouldn't go swinging at everyone who says his sales numbers are wrong, but it still hurts that he allows these lying dirtbags all sorts of defamation liberties when they don't really have a true picture of what Apple is actually selling. Then again, I'm not even sure Cook is believed by anyone. I know a couple of years back Gene Munster basically called Tim Cook a liar about first weekend iPhone sales. Apple is just a freaking target of all those crooked Wall Street players. Companies like Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft aren't even being touched by the dirtbags. No shareholder wants to own a company with a constant doom and gloom scenario in the background.
    As you say it's all manipulation by the Wall Street crooks, so i say if you can't beat them join them.  Sell the day before release of a new Apple product, put a stop buy on several dollars lower.  Works every time.
  • Reply 28 of 32
    Once CEO Tim Cook starts commenting, he won't be able to stop. Apple said it won't comment on the sales so if he starts tweeting, then there goes the plan. And what if sales are down and someone says they are strong, does he have to correct them to prevent misinformation. Which analysts sales estimates should he choose to correct? They have chosen to focus on developing products and full disclosure happens quarterly. This is what most companies do. While Steve Jobs was CEO, they didn't even give projections for the upcoming quarter, which they do now.
    cali
  • Reply 29 of 32
    sog35 said:
    thedba said:
    sog35 said:
    I don't understand why people don't upgrade their phones at least every 2 years.

    Waiting 3 or 4 years to upgrade is DUMB. Unless you are totally desperate for money and can't even buy 3 meals a day, there really is no reason not to upgrade every other year.

    Cost of getting an iPhone every 2 years:

    1. Buy iPhone for $650
    2. After 2 years sell iPhone for $300
    3. Total cost of iPhone for 2 years was $350
    4. Comes out to less than 50 cents a day, $15 a month, $175 a year

    I mean seriously. 50 cents a day!  For something you use 12+ hours a day, every day. You are basically paying less than 4 cents an hour to use an iPhone. Go show me something else that gives so much value for such a cheap price.  People pay $6 for a cup of Starbucks coffee that is gone in 10 minutes.

    So lets say you hold your iPhone for 3 years. How much do you actually save?

    1. Buy iPhone for $650
    2. After 3 years sell iPhone for $200
    3. Total cost of iPhone for 3 years is $450
    4. Comes out to 41 cents a day

    So to save LITERALLY 9 cents a day you are willing to hang on to an out dated phone? Really? NINE CENTS A DAY you are willing to sacrifice a ton of extra features, slower CPU, and a battery that is half way into the grave? Nine. Cents.

    Or if you hold onto the phone for 4 years. You will get about $100 for trade in. That's 38 cents per day.

    So you are willing to have an ANCIENT phone that won't even run the latest version of iOS with a battery that dies in 6 hours?  To save 12 cents a day?  TWELVE CENTS!!!! Come on. Get real.


    Now if you are in poverty condition I understand wanted to save 9 cents a day or 12 cents a day to hold on to an old iPhone. But for the rest of us it makes ZERO sense, or CENTS.  Upgrading every 2 years is SMART. Trying to save a few pennies a day for a lesser experience and losing productivity is DUMB.
    That's like saying you're the only one who knows what they're doing. 
    Explain please.

    I was just showing the savings of keeping an iPhone for 2 years versus 3 years.

    If you keep it for the 3rd year you will be saving about 20 cents a day versus getting a new phone. That comes out to $6 a month.

    Is it really worth $6 a month to have an old device, with a creaky battery, and missing a ton of features? $6? Really? Plus unlike a new phone that 3 year old phone is out of warranty. One mistake or drop and you actually save NOTHING.
    First off, I was referring to this particular  statement: Waiting 3 or 4 years to upgrade is DUMB. 
    If a phone meets your most basic needs (eg. e-mail, iMessage, maps, phone calls) you don't need the latest and greatest to do all that. 

    Then you go on tirade about only 50 cents a day. How many people do you actually know that would start putting 50 cents into a piggy bank every day for two years straight, waiting for the next model? My answer to this is 0. Most people make that decision on the spot. Do I have 650 + tax (which you left out) + Apple care (if we accept your previous statements about warranties) and all of a sudden you're left with an 850 dollar bill. And this for the entry level model (iPhone 7 32 GB). OK 500, if you manage to sell your old one for 350. And that is one big if, for an entry level 2 yr. old model. 

    Math is one thing and besides, you can start filling up your piggy bank for much more important things than a smartphone. 
    Real world people behavior is a totally different matter. 




  • Reply 30 of 32
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,980member
    sog35 said:
    lkrupp said:
    Good to see Apple suppliers chiming in and fighting back. Maybe Apple should try fighting back too. When financials are announced start calling out the nay-sayers by name and wonder publicly if investors should continue doing business with them.
    I 100% agree with this.

    Its time for Cook to take of the kitty gloves and come out swinging during conference calls and even on Twitter during the quarter.

    There is no reason for Cook not to call out analysist, especially when its based on pure lies.  Like Kuo stating the only reason iPhone7 is doing so well is because the Note7 is blowing up. Or the stupid report saying sales of the iPhone7 are down 25% around the world besides the USA.

    A CEO like Musk goes on the offensive when stupid lies like that appear about Tesla. Cook should do the same for Apple.  Its been 4 years since I began investing in this stock and Cook is still allowing these weaklings to strong arm Apple. Its pathetic.
    You should ask Trump to be CEO instead...the guy is goid at fighting back on every little shit on Twitter!
  • Reply 31 of 32
    calicali Posts: 3,495member
    I wish this thread was full of Apple fan gloating instead of iPhone upgrade plans and math :(
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