Researchers expect 74 million iPhone sales in 2016 on strength of new releases

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in iPhone
New analyst research suggests that the iPhone 7 family of phones is selling better than that of the iPhone 6s, but numbers and financial impact for the third quarter are being kept low by early stock limitations on the sought-after iPhone 7 Plus.









According to Steve Milunovitch of UBS Research, supply chain sources see production volumes between that of the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6s. Additionally, the financial analyst firm points to a survey suggesting that interest in the iPhone 7 Plus is proportionally greater than that of the iPhone 6 Plus or iPhone 6s Plus.



The iPhone SE is holding on, but interest is dropping, according to the study. UBS believes that contribution of sales from the iPhone SE has fallen from 16 percent of US sales in the third quarter, to 9 percent in the fourth quarter -- although the latter may be mathematically impacted somewhat by approximately two weeks of iPhone 7 family availability.



Bolstering Apple's sales, Samsung is expected to see a net loss of future buyers as a result of the Galaxy Note 7 battery fire debacle. An associated survey polling smartphone buyers purchase intentions after the incidents show 17 percent of Samsung owners and 50 percent of those not devoted to a platform saying that they were less likely to buy a Samsung device in the future. The full impact of the battery recall of the Note 7 on the overall industry may not be felt for some time, however.









UBS expects to see "mid-single digit growth" in iPhone unit sales in 2016 with about an 8 percent growth in 2017. However, the firm expects a larger upgrade cycle similar to that of the iPhone 6 popularity in 2018 with a new design.



As a result of the strong out-the-gate performance during the iPhone 7 release, UBS expects Apple to hit revenue of $46.6 billion, in the middle of Apple's revenue estimate range, but a bit less than current Wall Street estimates suggest.



Factors impacting Apple's profit margin, which is expected to rise, is an all-time high of customers opting to pay $100 more for more storage in the iPhone, and an increase in buyers upgrading from older iPhones with 29 percent of the upgraders coming from an iPhone 5s.







For 2015, UBS expects that Apple will sell through 74 million iPhones with orders from suppliers to ship 89 million, but there may be more than expected sales, given the extra sales week after Christmas in the fourth quarter over last year.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 18
    coolfactorcoolfactor Posts: 1,505member
    For 2015? (in last paragraph)
  • Reply 2 of 18
    muadibemuadibe Posts: 133member
    "For 2015" should be For 2016.
  • Reply 3 of 18
    calicali Posts: 3,495member
    %2 of Samsung users said the fires had a very positive impact for the brand? Am I reading this wrong?


    Also I read an article that said iPhone 7 pre-orders sold out in 15 minutes in Korea!

    watto_cobraanton zuykov
  • Reply 4 of 18
    AppleBumAppleBum Posts: 37unconfirmed, member
    Speaking of Korea, my 7 Plus is there at the moment,  on its way from China to me. :)
    calilolliverwatto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 18
    kestralkestral Posts: 251member
    I'd buy a jet black iPhone 7 Plus right now if I could but here the wait time is 6-8 weeks.
  • Reply 6 of 18
    Wait, so Wall Street analysts are called "researchers" now?
  • Reply 7 of 18
    anomeanome Posts: 1,293member
    cali said:
    %2 of Samsung users said the fires had a very positive impact for the brand? Am I reading this wrong?


    Also I read an article that said iPhone 7 pre-orders sold out in 15 minutes in Korea!


    I think it actually means 2% of Samsung users thought that Samsung's handling of the situation and eventual recall was positive for the brand.

    Given the amount of dithering, and the e-mails about trying to cover it up, this is almost, but not quite, as crazy as thinking the actual fires were good for the brand. It's at least a bit more understandable to someone who already has a positive association with the brand, and hasn't heard all of the details.

    [EDIT: grammar]

    edited October 2016 caliwatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 18
    And those from Wall St that speak out of their backsides raise their estimates to 90Million just so that they can short APPL yet again. They will obviously be issuing the sell orders from their Samsung Galaxy Note 7. :)

    calilolliverwatto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 18
    tyler82tyler82 Posts: 879member
    AppleBum said:
    Speaking of Korea, my 7 Plus is there at the moment,  on its way from China to me.
    When did you order yours?
    Ordered my 7 plus black 128g on Oct. 13, still "processing........."

    And I am one of the 5s owners upgrading. The wait is killing me!
    edited October 2016 watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 18
    tyler82 said:
    AppleBum said:
    Speaking of Korea, my 7 Plus is there at the moment,  on its way from China to me.
    When did you order yours?
    Ordered my 7 plus black 128g on Oct. 13, still "processing........."

    And I am one of the 5s owners upgrading. The wait is killing me!
    At least "killing" you in a good way instead of a Note7 way...
    calilolliverwatto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 18

    Bolstering Apple's sales, Samsung is expected to see a net loss of future buyers as a result of the Galaxy Note 7 battery fire debacle. 
    So Samsung's exploding phones impact on its customers produced a net loss of future buyers? Sounds gruesome... R.I.P.
    caliwatto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 18
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,984member
    sog35 said:
    cali said:
    %2 of Samsung users said the fires had a very positive impact for the brand? Am I reading this wrong?


    Also I read an article that said iPhone 7 pre-orders sold out in 15 minutes in Korea!

    I found out some Samsung fans are just crazy loyal.

    There are guys on Reddit that say they are willing to take the risk of the Note7 killing them and their family since its such a great phone.

    And they call Apple fan's Sheep? LOL. I never heard of an Apple fan willing to die for the company.
    It's more dangerous to put your family in a car than to have a Samsung Galaxy Note 7 around them. 
  • Reply 13 of 18
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,439member
    sog35 said:
    cali said:
    %2 of Samsung users said the fires had a very positive impact for the brand? Am I reading this wrong?


    Also I read an article that said iPhone 7 pre-orders sold out in 15 minutes in Korea!

    I found out some Samsung fans are just crazy loyal.

    There are guys on Reddit that say they are willing to take the risk of the Note7 killing them and their family since its such a great phone.

    And they call Apple fan's Sheep? LOL. I never heard of an Apple fan willing to die for the company.
    It's more dangerous to put your family in a car than to have a Samsung Galaxy Note 7 around them. 
    Try giving up using a car.
    caliwatto_cobraanton zuykov
  • Reply 14 of 18
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,162member
    sog35 said:
    cali said:
    %2 of Samsung users said the fires had a very positive impact for the brand? Am I reading this wrong?


    Also I read an article that said iPhone 7 pre-orders sold out in 15 minutes in Korea!

    I found out some Samsung fans are just crazy loyal.

    There are guys on Reddit that say they are willing to take the risk of the Note7 killing them and their family since its such a great phone.

    And they call Apple fan's Sheep? LOL. I never heard of an Apple fan willing to die for the company.
    Just announced this morning on CNBC, it’s a federal crime to take a Note 7 onto an airplane.  FAA has declared anyone caught taking a Note 7 onboard an aircraft is subject to prosecution and, if convicted, up to 10 years in prison plus $175,000.00 fine.  I wonder what those Samsung fanatics will do now?

    http://www.theverge.com/2016/10/16/13298846/galaxy-note-7-federal-crime-federal-aviation-administration
    edited October 2016 lollivercalityler82watto_cobraanton zuykov
  • Reply 15 of 18
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,984member
    eightzero said:
    sog35 said:
    cali said:
    %2 of Samsung users said the fires had a very positive impact for the brand? Am I reading this wrong?


    Also I read an article that said iPhone 7 pre-orders sold out in 15 minutes in Korea!

    I found out some Samsung fans are just crazy loyal.

    There are guys on Reddit that say they are willing to take the risk of the Note7 killing them and their family since its such a great phone.

    And they call Apple fan's Sheep? LOL. I never heard of an Apple fan willing to die for the company.
    It's more dangerous to put your family in a car than to have a Samsung Galaxy Note 7 around them. 
    Try giving up using a car.
    Easy, become a hipster.  :D 
  • Reply 16 of 18
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • Reply 17 of 18
    sog35 said:
    cali said:
    %2 of Samsung users said the fires had a very positive impact for the brand? Am I reading this wrong?


    Also I read an article that said iPhone 7 pre-orders sold out in 15 minutes in Korea!

    I found out some Samsung fans are just crazy loyal.

    There are guys on Reddit that say they are willing to take the risk of the Note7 killing them and their family since its such a great phone.

    And they call Apple fan's Sheep? LOL. I never heard of an Apple fan willing to die for the company.
    It's more dangerous to put your family in a car than to have a Samsung Galaxy Note 7 around them. 
    Bold font doesn't convince me. Besides, these probabilities are not mutually exclusive. Also, why would you compare that to a car, and not to a probability of ... say, an iPhone catching fire?
    watto_cobra
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