^^^^ (Thank you for -- hopefully -- putting an end to his blather).
Not quite.
I'm not bashing Apple. Apple has put out a lot of innovative products.... etcetc
So, why don't you cut to the chase and tell us: (i) who is -- even in some reasonable future -- going to take Apple's place; (ii) with what if not a phone or phone-like CE product (some broad generalizations will suffice); (iii) by when (something broad will suffice, e.g., 5 years? 10? 20? 50 years?).
Otherwise, I am afraid your post amounts to the lot of speculative blather.
^^^^ (Thank you for -- hopefully -- putting an end to his blather).
Not quite.
I'm not bashing Apple. Apple has put out a lot of innovative products.... etcetc
So, why don't you cut to the chase and tell us: (i) who is -- even in some reasonable future -- going to take Apple's place; (ii) with what if not a phone or phone-like CE product (some broad generalizations will suffice); (iii) by when (something broad will suffice, e.g., 5 years? 10? 20? 50 years?).
Otherwise, I am afraid your post amounts to the lot of speculative blather.
All the posts about Apple's stock price are speculative blather from all sides. I have no internal knowledge of Apple's future plans and I'm absolutely certain that you don't either. I'm not saying Apple is going away, but I am confident that someday Apple will hit its peak and will have to fight against the commoditization of smart phones.
I've posted facts regarding Apple's slowing growth in iPhone unit sales, decreasing numbers in iPad unit sales, and slowing growth in revenue/profits. How about something more than speculative blather about Apple's future growth? What products will Apple introduce to maintain double digit earnings growth for the foreseeable future? Do you think Apple can reliably sell more than 250 million iPhones per year, and if so where? Will the Apple Car ever see the light of day, and even if it does can it be profitable when competition will inevitably come from Tesla, Google, General Motors, and any number of existing car manufacturers. Outside of exotic manufacturers like Ferrari, cars are even more commoditized than technology.
As far as my predictions go, I think Apple is going to settle in at 200 million or less iPhones per year after peaking at around 250 million next year. Huawei is making a concerted effort to expand its market and it is almost inevitable they will head to the U.S. If (and it is a big if) they can produce a quality flagship-level smartphone (display, camera, and biometric security being the main features) in the $500 range then I think it will be quite successful after a couple of generations. The market for $500+ phones is pretty saturated and any growth by Huawei is going to come mostly from Samsung but at least some from Apple. I think in the next 10 years Apple will see its smartphone market share at about 10% worldwide and 25% in the U.S.
Smartphones will continue to be the electronic hub of people's lives, and I think they will remain essentially unchanged except for a possible foldable form factor that would double screen size. I don't think phone capabilities will increase much as companies develop their own data gathering system and simply give you remote web access to that data. You are already seeing that happen with cars; maintenance information is fed through the car's built-in communication equipment and sent to the manufacturer who in turn notify you by app notification or text message. Home automation will likely follow suit; your refrigerator, HVAC, lights, etc. will be interfaced through the manufacturing companies' system, not through direct connection between your phone or even through Apple's servers. Companies are going to work to stay out of Apple's walled garden and avoid the associated fees and also retain control of their own data.
Regardless, the iPhone is not Apple's future as far as long-term growth goes. That market is just about tapped out. Apple needs to develop a $100 billion business line to keep its expected growth over the next decade. Basically it needs to reinvent the iPhone to meet expectations.
The one thing that impresses me now about Warren Buffett is that he can admit to his mistakes. Most of those other big investors never admit to being wrong about a company. They all think they're so smart and know everything. What a load of crap.
He's certainly more down to earth than most of the wealthy folks I personally know, more than willing to offer advice and to let others know what he did wrong along the way. Hes also quite impressed with Jeff Bezos, mentioning that he's one of those people who caught him by surprise with his business acumen. So when asked yesterday why he didn't buy Amazon stock years ago? He only needed one word: "Stupidity".
That view may conflict with Apple's experience in China in the March quarter, where the company's revenues were down drastically year-over-year. The company has slipped in the Chinese smartphone market in large part because local vendors can offer cheaper prices -- for many people, a new iPhone would cost a month or more's salary.
...
Another possible factor for Chinese market sales slippage (don't know how large a part) is that in China, the local vendors are...local. I was in Shanghai about a year ago and found a few people preferred their Huawei or whatever phone for nationalistic reasons. A limited sample obviously, but I think worth considering.
I did notice quite a few people with iPhones though--including many older models (5/5s and even some 4/4s). Maybe more people there hang on to older model iPhones longer, like many people hang on to iPads for a while. That could be another cause for the slippage.
Carl Icahn must be kicking himself, selling AAPL when it was somewhere in the $90 - $100 range. (IIRC)
the main reason Icahn sold was because his oil bets went sour and he needed cash.
still a bad decision by him.
Actually I think Icahn investment in Apple was holding apple back, everyone know he is only interested in forcing a company to do what he wants and breaking them up so he make money. when he dumped out the stock started to head north.
Icahn does have that reputation.
It is more than his reputation, I worked for one of the companies he targets and watch the company tear itself apart trying to rid itself of Icahn. Instead of the company focusing on what they should be doing next in the way of products, they spend the entire time trying to financially engineer itself to make Icahn happy. Then he exits and leave the company a mess not knowing which side is up.
Comments
Otherwise, I am afraid your post amounts to the lot of speculative blather.
All the posts about Apple's stock price are speculative blather from all sides. I have no internal knowledge of Apple's future plans and I'm absolutely certain that you don't either. I'm not saying Apple is going away, but I am confident that someday Apple will hit its peak and will have to fight against the commoditization of smart phones.
I've posted facts regarding Apple's slowing growth in iPhone unit sales, decreasing numbers in iPad unit sales, and slowing growth in revenue/profits. How about something more than speculative blather about Apple's future growth? What products will Apple introduce to maintain double digit earnings growth for the foreseeable future? Do you think Apple can reliably sell more than 250 million iPhones per year, and if so where? Will the Apple Car ever see the light of day, and even if it does can it be profitable when competition will inevitably come from Tesla, Google, General Motors, and any number of existing car manufacturers. Outside of exotic manufacturers like Ferrari, cars are even more commoditized than technology.
As far as my predictions go, I think Apple is going to settle in at 200 million or less iPhones per year after peaking at around 250 million next year. Huawei is making a concerted effort to expand its market and it is almost inevitable they will head to the U.S. If (and it is a big if) they can produce a quality flagship-level smartphone (display, camera, and biometric security being the main features) in the $500 range then I think it will be quite successful after a couple of generations. The market for $500+ phones is pretty saturated and any growth by Huawei is going to come mostly from Samsung but at least some from Apple. I think in the next 10 years Apple will see its smartphone market share at about 10% worldwide and 25% in the U.S.
Smartphones will continue to be the electronic hub of people's lives, and I think they will remain essentially unchanged except for a possible foldable form factor that would double screen size. I don't think phone capabilities will increase much as companies develop their own data gathering system and simply give you remote web access to that data. You are already seeing that happen with cars; maintenance information is fed through the car's built-in communication equipment and sent to the manufacturer who in turn notify you by app notification or text message. Home automation will likely follow suit; your refrigerator, HVAC, lights, etc. will be interfaced through the manufacturing companies' system, not through direct connection between your phone or even through Apple's servers. Companies are going to work to stay out of Apple's walled garden and avoid the associated fees and also retain control of their own data.
Regardless, the iPhone is not Apple's future as far as long-term growth goes. That market is just about tapped out. Apple needs to develop a $100 billion business line to keep its expected growth over the next decade. Basically it needs to reinvent the iPhone to meet expectations.
I did notice quite a few people with iPhones though--including many older models (5/5s and even some 4/4s). Maybe more people there hang on to older model iPhones longer, like many people hang on to iPads for a while. That could be another cause for the slippage.
It is more than his reputation, I worked for one of the companies he targets and watch the company tear itself apart trying to rid itself of Icahn. Instead of the company focusing on what they should be doing next in the way of products, they spend the entire time trying to financially engineer itself to make Icahn happy. Then he exits and leave the company a mess not knowing which side is up.