Analyst tells other pundits to 'quit worrying' about Apple's possible 'iPhone 8' delays

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited July 2017
A new analyst's report is calling for calm, and pointing out that devout Apple fans will likely wait for the "iPhone 8" rather than jump ship to another device by Apple or another vendor entirely.




In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Robert Cihra from Guggenheim notes that while it is possible that the iPhone 8 will be delayed, a "short-lived" delay will not ultimately matter to the stock. Any pent-up demand will stay with Apple, and just be shunted to the beginning of the 2018 fiscal year, and extend past the holiday buying season.

Cihra still believes that fiscal year 2018, and in particular, Apple's holiday quarter will be "its biggest in three years. The firm believes that greater than 40 percent of the current install base that exceeds 700 million are now greater than two years old, more than double the number that were during the 2014 launch of the iPhone 6.

Other factors boosting Apple include a tech upgrade cycle will reach out past 2018, as the firm believes that it will take up to three years to roll out OLED screens across the entire line. Furthermore, enhancing a key metric, the "iPhone 8," which will be priced greater than that of any "iPhone 7s," will further boost average selling price.

The company believes that the "iPhone 8" could exceed the selling price of the "iPhone 7s" by up to $400. Cihra believes that the price jump will not be that significant, and notes that the original iPhone was also viewed as too expensive by analysts when it launched in 2007 at $499 with an AT&T contract required and attached carrier subsidies paid to Apple.

Guggenheim has slightly cut its estimate for the quarter ending in September by $0.18 per share as a result of reports of iPhone delays, but is boosting the holiday quarter's earnings per share by $0.25.

The "iPhone 8" is expected to include an edge-to-edge OLED panel with 5.1 inches of usable space, with the remainder dedicated to virtual buttons. Also expected is a larger battery in both size and capacity all encompassed within a form factor similar in size to the 4.7-inch iPhone 7. Also expected is a new 3D facial scanner.

Some reports, including Guggenheim's on Tuesday, peg the possible starting price of the "iPhone 8" quite high. Early reports suggested a cost of more than $1,000, and others as much as $1,200.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 20
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,888member
    "quit worrying" is probably good advice in this case. 

    If the informed speculation from people like Gruber is correct, then the iPhone 8 (or whatever it's called) is a halo product, not a mainstream product. It's analogous to the iMac Pro -- a very cool product that both gives people something to aspire to and provides reassurance that if your needs and wealth grow, Apple has you covered with a really awesome high end product. If availability is initially limited, that's no big deal because most people weren't going to buy it anyway. It's the announcement of it that will matter more than availability. 
    gregg thurman
  • Reply 2 of 20
    Why do none of these analysts ever bring up the lease/upgrade programs as a factor? This is overwhelmingly important. This is how the vast majority of iPhones have been purchased for the last 2 cycles. This year will undoubtedly be a record-breaking number of leases. The majority of these are also 12 month upgrade programs. People are paying to be able to upgrade every 12 months. Every month past 12 that goes by that Apple doesn't have their flagship iPhone available, customers now have to pay out of pocket for Apple's delay, by making installment payments they wouldn't otherwise be making. It also causes havoc AGAIN next year, when the "8s" comes out on time in September, but thanks to delays the 8-owners' 12 months is in October or November....which means if they want to upgrade at launch (as they expect to and are entitled to) they need to AGAIN pay excessively out of pocket to pay off their remaining installments before they can upgrade.

    TL;DR Apple doesn't have much choice but to deliver on time. If they don't, customers literally have to pay out of pocket for their delay.
    Rayz2016
  • Reply 3 of 20
    It was analysts who created the hysteria about the "Anniversary Phone".
    It was analysts who created the hysteria about the super cycle iPhone 8, iPhone 7S and iPhone 7S Plus.
    It was analysts who created the hysteria about the $1000+ iPhone.
    It was analysts who created the hysteria about the in-display fingerprint sensor bring problematic to build.
    It was analysts who created the hysteria about the fingerprint being on the back of the iPhone.
    It was analysts who created the hysteria about the iPhone 8 being delayed.

    gregg thurmankevin keepakitt
  • Reply 4 of 20
    This analyst must have fallen out with a lot of people
    - The doomsayers who preach that Apple is doomed at every opportunity
    - The Shorters who make their livelyhood purely by shorting APPL every three months
    - The other analysts like Kuo who apparently know more about the next Apple device than Apple themselves.

    Anyway, it is a breath of fresh air not to hear the daily 'doomed', 'delays', 'problems' and other tales of woe relating to anything that Apple is rumoured to be doing.

    gregg thurmanpakitt
  • Reply 5 of 20
    Rayz2016Rayz2016 Posts: 4,518member
    Wasn't Guggenheim the name of the creepy management consultant in House of Lies?
  • Reply 6 of 20
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,076member
    Haven't you heard? If the iPhone 8 isn't released on a very specific day in September, all iPhone owners will jump shit to some random Android phone, just because. It's so obvious. This is what all these moronic, frantic, panicked "reports" are implying.
    edited July 2017 watto_cobraanantksundaramStrangeDaysbrucemcgregg thurmanRonnnieOradarthekat
  • Reply 7 of 20
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 18,813member
    "...Apple fans will likely wait for the "iPhone 8" rather than jump ship to another device..."

    Likely? Likely?! Likely!!?? Hahaha...
    RonnnieO
  • Reply 8 of 20
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 6,264member
    "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the iPhone"


  • Reply 9 of 20
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,488member
    Someday some analyst will learn that Apple's "secret sauce" is not in selling a key product at a point in time (Mac, iPod, iPhone), but in "creating customers".  Once in, those customers tend to be loyal (for logical reasons), and over time those with the means expand to other Apple products.  I started with the 3rd gen iPod, to now where my family has multiple iPhones, Macs, iPads, with an Apple Watch and AirPods for me.  I don't upgrade quickly - about 3 years for iPhone, 4 years for iPad, and even longer for Macs - but the cumulative effect is great for Apple's business.

    Right now the iPhone is the product which brings in the most new customers to the Apple base, and in the past it was the iPod.  The customers stay and expand due ecosystem, quality, simplicity.

    So no, a delay of the next iPhone will only have a small effect on Apple's stock price, but no affect on Apple's business.
    mattinozpakitt
  • Reply 10 of 20
    ksecksec Posts: 1,531member
    Why do none of these analysts ever bring up the lease/upgrade programs as a factor? This is overwhelmingly important. This is how the vast majority of iPhones have been purchased for the last 2 cycles. This year will undoubtedly be a record-breaking number of leases. The majority of these are also 12 month upgrade programs. People are paying to be able to upgrade every 12 months. Every month past 12 that goes by that Apple doesn't have their flagship iPhone available, customers now have to pay out of pocket for Apple's delay, by making installment payments they wouldn't otherwise be making. It also causes havoc AGAIN next year, when the "8s" comes out on time in September, but thanks to delays the 8-owners' 12 months is in October or November....which means if they want to upgrade at launch (as they expect to and are entitled to) they need to AGAIN pay excessively out of pocket to pay off their remaining installments before they can upgrade.

    TL;DR Apple doesn't have much choice but to deliver on time. If they don't, customers literally have to pay out of pocket for their delay.
    Because in the grand scheme of things, lease and upgrade is less then 50% in US AND 0% Outside US.
  • Reply 11 of 20
    ksec said:
    Why do none of these analysts ever bring up the lease/upgrade programs as a factor? This is overwhelmingly important. This is how the vast majority of iPhones have been purchased for the last 2 cycles. This year will undoubtedly be a record-breaking number of leases. The majority of these are also 12 month upgrade programs. People are paying to be able to upgrade every 12 months. Every month past 12 that goes by that Apple doesn't have their flagship iPhone available, customers now have to pay out of pocket for Apple's delay, by making installment payments they wouldn't otherwise be making. It also causes havoc AGAIN next year, when the "8s" comes out on time in September, but thanks to delays the 8-owners' 12 months is in October or November....which means if they want to upgrade at launch (as they expect to and are entitled to) they need to AGAIN pay excessively out of pocket to pay off their remaining installments before they can upgrade.

    TL;DR Apple doesn't have much choice but to deliver on time. If they don't, customers literally have to pay out of pocket for their delay.
    Because in the grand scheme of things, lease and upgrade is less then 50% in US AND 0% Outside US.
    Lol what? Do you think more than 5% of buyers actually pay full retail for iPhone? LOL.
  • Reply 12 of 20
    Because in the grand scheme of things, lease and upgrade is less then 50% in US AND 0% Outside US.
    Lol what? Do you think more than 5% of buyers actually pay full retail for iPhone? LOL.
    In Canada, I'm guessing most take advantage of carrier subsidies. Almost every iPhone I sell is heavily subsidized and in some cases, fully subsidized. I've never sold an iPhone at full price yet. 
  • Reply 13 of 20
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Because in the grand scheme of things, lease and upgrade is less then 50% in US AND 0% Outside US.
    Lol what? Do you think more than 5% of buyers actually pay full retail for iPhone? LOL.
    In Canada, I'm guessing most take advantage of carrier subsidies. Almost every iPhone I sell is heavily subsidized and in some cases, fully subsidized. I've never sold an iPhone at full price yet. 
    There is no such thing as a subsidy, its plainly a loan and that you repay every month on your bill until it runs out.
    pakitt
  • Reply 14 of 20
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    brucemc said:
    Someday some analyst will learn that Apple's "secret sauce" is not in selling a key product at a point in time (Mac, iPod, iPhone), but in "creating customers".  Once in, those customers tend to be loyal (for logical reasons), and over time those with the means expand to other Apple products.  I started with the 3rd gen iPod, to now where my family has multiple iPhones, Macs, iPads, with an Apple Watch and AirPods for me.  I don't upgrade quickly - about 3 years for iPhone, 4 years for iPad, and even longer for Macs - but the cumulative effect is great for Apple's business.

    Right now the iPhone is the product which brings in the most new customers to the Apple base, and in the past it was the iPod.  The customers stay and expand due ecosystem, quality, simplicity.

    So no, a delay of the next iPhone will only have a small effect on Apple's stock price, but no affect on Apple's business.
    The Airpods are so massively popular that I wonder if they'll be the #2 on the "creating new users" list.
  • Reply 15 of 20
    mattinozmattinoz Posts: 952member
    slurpy said:
    Haven't you heard? If the iPhone 8 isn't released on a very specific day in September, all iPhone owners will jump shit to some random Android phone, just because. It's so obvious. This is what all these moronic, frantic, panicked "reports" are implying.
    I think the bigger worry is they might just continue using iPhone 5S and above costing Apple money to support them while not getting revenue.
    He says as a very happy 5S owner.
    pakitt
  • Reply 16 of 20
    kevin keekevin kee Posts: 933member
    Keep Calm and Continue Speculating. Keep Calm and Trust Apple. Keep Calm and Stop Abusing This Meme.
  • Reply 17 of 20
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 3,069member
    "...Apple fans will likely wait for the "iPhone 8" rather than jump ship to another device..."

    Likely? Likely?! Likely!!?? Hahaha...
    The comments are largely common sense but there is one real consideration. You can now buy affordable premium Android phones at half the price of a similarly specced iPhone.

    If your budget doesn't allow you to opt for a new iPhone model then a switch is more feasible.
    pakitt
  • Reply 18 of 20
    pakittpakitt Posts: 152member
    This iPhone 8 thing has become boring. And useless.
    Apple will do what they want. As they always did. And as it has helped them being who they are. Which is the reason while people buy their stuff.
    Apple makes money from what user's do with their iPhone - namely apps/services and hardware related halo effect. And for good reasons.

    Apple simply wants you to have a device that allows them to get the foot in the door (first users) or expand the eco system.

    Like a commentator above, I started with an iPod shuffle, and then seeing the benefits of a reliable, private and secure, refined and beautiful, usable, up-to-date software, I have expanded to an iPad (second one), iMac (second one), MacBook (sold after years of faithful service), mini (second one, sold after years of faithful service), Apple TV (second one, first one passed on to my parents who enjoy it very much), a few accessories (e.g. 2 Airports) and services here and there, and yes.....iPhone - my 3rd (5, 5S and now 6).
    And that expanded to my parents (both have iPhones and a MacBook - which they love after years of PCs) and some friends (iPhone mostly).
    iPhones (and all hardware) is actively supported way longer than any Android device, and that increases the lifespan of the device so much, that it offsets any "extra" price adder compared to them.

    Am I a "fan" - no. Am I buying everything they throw at me? No. Do I buy things they price absurdly? No. I play it smart. 
    Investors and analyst seem to think that the entire user base of Apple is a buch of "fan" kids, that have $$$ at their disposal to get the latest shiny things, and will jump at something else if Apple doesn't give them another toy. That the entire use base is the USA (where it seems instant gratification is the only thing Apple users want) instead of the whole world.
    Reality is quite different, and no - it doesn't serve them (analysts) they way they want (i.e. speculate on Apple stock to get money to buy themselves the latest shiny thing from Apple).

    As long as Apple offers *security*, *privacy*, ease of use, integrated services and hardware that are a pleasure to look at every day, I will stick with them. I am not seeing that on the other side of the fence (yet?) and the "premium" (supposedly) of Apple is something I am willing to (smartly) pay for. 
    BTW, I bought all my iPhones. I don't want 2 year contracts with phone companies that behave like Dracula. 

    Do I need/use/want an iPhone, yes. Do I need an iPhone x at 1000€? No.
    I find the base model of the newest versions (e.g. currently the 7) with the smallest amount of RAM already quite pricey.
    And about RAM/HDD space and "everybody" whining about it: with all the Cloud/iTunes services and smart "optmize memory" options and new space-saving iOS11/High Sierra video/pic codecs  (I don't have 300 dead apps on my phone, like most people who complain " don't have space to take a pic anymore" do) huge amounts of RAM are simply not necessary. If you make a lot of long 4k videos, that is on you and you will pay for it. Sure. And if the iPhone doesn't have enough RAM for that - well what about using a device that is meant to take so much video???

    Actually seeing the overall software and services strategy of how Apple is handling, now and in the future, the way storage is used by its devices, not only to the benefit of their servers and network usage, but also to the end-user, they clearly don't care to sell a 256GB iPhone, they care to sell you *an* iPhone - whichever it is. Because once you are in, they make money (and tons of it) from everything else not hardware related...

    iPhone 8 or not.

  • Reply 19 of 20
    MacProMacPro Posts: 17,835member
    Robert Cihra didn't get the analyst only memo about stock manipulation through fake news ;)
    pakittmattinoz
  • Reply 20 of 20
    mattinozmattinoz Posts: 952member
    MacPro said:
    Robert Cihra didn't get the analyst only memo about stock manipulation through fake news ;)
    More likely his client wanted him the to push some stocks a different direction.
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