Analyst tells other pundits to 'quit worrying' about Apple's possible 'iPhone 8' delays
A new analyst's report is calling for calm, and pointing out that devout Apple fans will likely wait for the "iPhone 8" rather than jump ship to another device by Apple or another vendor entirely.
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Robert Cihra from Guggenheim notes that while it is possible that the iPhone 8 will be delayed, a "short-lived" delay will not ultimately matter to the stock. Any pent-up demand will stay with Apple, and just be shunted to the beginning of the 2018 fiscal year, and extend past the holiday buying season.
Cihra still believes that fiscal year 2018, and in particular, Apple's holiday quarter will be "its biggest in three years. The firm believes that greater than 40 percent of the current install base that exceeds 700 million are now greater than two years old, more than double the number that were during the 2014 launch of the iPhone 6.
Other factors boosting Apple include a tech upgrade cycle will reach out past 2018, as the firm believes that it will take up to three years to roll out OLED screens across the entire line. Furthermore, enhancing a key metric, the "iPhone 8," which will be priced greater than that of any "iPhone 7s," will further boost average selling price.
The company believes that the "iPhone 8" could exceed the selling price of the "iPhone 7s" by up to $400. Cihra believes that the price jump will not be that significant, and notes that the original iPhone was also viewed as too expensive by analysts when it launched in 2007 at $499 with an AT&T contract required and attached carrier subsidies paid to Apple.
Guggenheim has slightly cut its estimate for the quarter ending in September by $0.18 per share as a result of reports of iPhone delays, but is boosting the holiday quarter's earnings per share by $0.25.
The "iPhone 8" is expected to include an edge-to-edge OLED panel with 5.1 inches of usable space, with the remainder dedicated to virtual buttons. Also expected is a larger battery in both size and capacity all encompassed within a form factor similar in size to the 4.7-inch iPhone 7. Also expected is a new 3D facial scanner.
Some reports, including Guggenheim's on Tuesday, peg the possible starting price of the "iPhone 8" quite high. Early reports suggested a cost of more than $1,000, and others as much as $1,200.
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Robert Cihra from Guggenheim notes that while it is possible that the iPhone 8 will be delayed, a "short-lived" delay will not ultimately matter to the stock. Any pent-up demand will stay with Apple, and just be shunted to the beginning of the 2018 fiscal year, and extend past the holiday buying season.
Cihra still believes that fiscal year 2018, and in particular, Apple's holiday quarter will be "its biggest in three years. The firm believes that greater than 40 percent of the current install base that exceeds 700 million are now greater than two years old, more than double the number that were during the 2014 launch of the iPhone 6.
Other factors boosting Apple include a tech upgrade cycle will reach out past 2018, as the firm believes that it will take up to three years to roll out OLED screens across the entire line. Furthermore, enhancing a key metric, the "iPhone 8," which will be priced greater than that of any "iPhone 7s," will further boost average selling price.
The company believes that the "iPhone 8" could exceed the selling price of the "iPhone 7s" by up to $400. Cihra believes that the price jump will not be that significant, and notes that the original iPhone was also viewed as too expensive by analysts when it launched in 2007 at $499 with an AT&T contract required and attached carrier subsidies paid to Apple.
Guggenheim has slightly cut its estimate for the quarter ending in September by $0.18 per share as a result of reports of iPhone delays, but is boosting the holiday quarter's earnings per share by $0.25.
The "iPhone 8" is expected to include an edge-to-edge OLED panel with 5.1 inches of usable space, with the remainder dedicated to virtual buttons. Also expected is a larger battery in both size and capacity all encompassed within a form factor similar in size to the 4.7-inch iPhone 7. Also expected is a new 3D facial scanner.
Some reports, including Guggenheim's on Tuesday, peg the possible starting price of the "iPhone 8" quite high. Early reports suggested a cost of more than $1,000, and others as much as $1,200.
Comments
If the informed speculation from people like Gruber is correct, then the iPhone 8 (or whatever it's called) is a halo product, not a mainstream product. It's analogous to the iMac Pro -- a very cool product that both gives people something to aspire to and provides reassurance that if your needs and wealth grow, Apple has you covered with a really awesome high end product. If availability is initially limited, that's no big deal because most people weren't going to buy it anyway. It's the announcement of it that will matter more than availability.
TL;DR Apple doesn't have much choice but to deliver on time. If they don't, customers literally have to pay out of pocket for their delay.
It was analysts who created the hysteria about the super cycle iPhone 8, iPhone 7S and iPhone 7S Plus.
It was analysts who created the hysteria about the $1000+ iPhone.
It was analysts who created the hysteria about the in-display fingerprint sensor bring problematic to build.
It was analysts who created the hysteria about the fingerprint being on the back of the iPhone.
It was analysts who created the hysteria about the iPhone 8 being delayed.
- The doomsayers who preach that Apple is doomed at every opportunity
- The Shorters who make their livelyhood purely by shorting APPL every three months
- The other analysts like Kuo who apparently know more about the next Apple device than Apple themselves.
Anyway, it is a breath of fresh air not to hear the daily 'doomed', 'delays', 'problems' and other tales of woe relating to anything that Apple is rumoured to be doing.
Likely? Likely?! Likely!!?? Hahaha...
Right now the iPhone is the product which brings in the most new customers to the Apple base, and in the past it was the iPod. The customers stay and expand due ecosystem, quality, simplicity.
So no, a delay of the next iPhone will only have a small effect on Apple's stock price, but no affect on Apple's business.
He says as a very happy 5S owner.
If your budget doesn't allow you to opt for a new iPhone model then a switch is more feasible.
Apple will do what they want. As they always did. And as it has helped them being who they are. Which is the reason while people buy their stuff.
Apple makes money from what user's do with their iPhone - namely apps/services and hardware related halo effect. And for good reasons.
Apple simply wants you to have a device that allows them to get the foot in the door (first users) or expand the eco system.
Like a commentator above, I started with an iPod shuffle, and then seeing the benefits of a reliable, private and secure, refined and beautiful, usable, up-to-date software, I have expanded to an iPad (second one), iMac (second one), MacBook (sold after years of faithful service), mini (second one, sold after years of faithful service), Apple TV (second one, first one passed on to my parents who enjoy it very much), a few accessories (e.g. 2 Airports) and services here and there, and yes.....iPhone - my 3rd (5, 5S and now 6).
And that expanded to my parents (both have iPhones and a MacBook - which they love after years of PCs) and some friends (iPhone mostly).
iPhones (and all hardware) is actively supported way longer than any Android device, and that increases the lifespan of the device so much, that it offsets any "extra" price adder compared to them.
Am I a "fan" - no. Am I buying everything they throw at me? No. Do I buy things they price absurdly? No. I play it smart.
Investors and analyst seem to think that the entire user base of Apple is a buch of "fan" kids, that have $$$ at their disposal to get the latest shiny things, and will jump at something else if Apple doesn't give them another toy. That the entire use base is the USA (where it seems instant gratification is the only thing Apple users want) instead of the whole world.
Reality is quite different, and no - it doesn't serve them (analysts) they way they want (i.e. speculate on Apple stock to get money to buy themselves the latest shiny thing from Apple).
As long as Apple offers *security*, *privacy*, ease of use, integrated services and hardware that are a pleasure to look at every day, I will stick with them. I am not seeing that on the other side of the fence (yet?) and the "premium" (supposedly) of Apple is something I am willing to (smartly) pay for.
BTW, I bought all my iPhones. I don't want 2 year contracts with phone companies that behave like Dracula.
Do I need/use/want an iPhone, yes. Do I need an iPhone x at 1000€? No.
I find the base model of the newest versions (e.g. currently the 7) with the smallest amount of RAM already quite pricey.
And about RAM/HDD space and "everybody" whining about it: with all the Cloud/iTunes services and smart "optmize memory" options and new space-saving iOS11/High Sierra video/pic codecs (I don't have 300 dead apps on my phone, like most people who complain " don't have space to take a pic anymore" do) huge amounts of RAM are simply not necessary. If you make a lot of long 4k videos, that is on you and you will pay for it. Sure. And if the iPhone doesn't have enough RAM for that - well what about using a device that is meant to take so much video???
Actually seeing the overall software and services strategy of how Apple is handling, now and in the future, the way storage is used by its devices, not only to the benefit of their servers and network usage, but also to the end-user, they clearly don't care to sell a 256GB iPhone, they care to sell you *an* iPhone - whichever it is. Because once you are in, they make money (and tons of it) from everything else not hardware related...
iPhone 8 or not.