Considering they control the license, which in fact costs them nothing, and their are in a monopolistic position, this will undoubtedly wind up in court in the EU at least.
It doesn't "cost them nothing" as it costs them quite a bit to develop the OS. If it ends up in European court it's only because the EU likes targeting US tech companies.
OEMs can do the same thing MS does: fund the OS upgrade/transfer cost using hardware sales profit.
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OEMs can do the same thing MS does: fund the OS upgrade/transfer cost using hardware sales profit.