Everyone knows that the iPhone 6 was an aberration caused by pent up demand for larger screens. Far more important to look at trends from 5 to 7 unless you have an agenda.
Tim Cook isn't holding out any huge hope for the 4th quarter. In 2015 the 4th quarter revenue was $51.5 billion. Even at the top end of his estimates they will barely beat where they were two years ago. I'm thinking the new iPhone isn't going to launch before October 1. That kind of stagnant revenue growth is more likely from the launch of the 7S as opposed to the 8. At what is anticipated to be an entry price of $1,000 I would think the iPhone 8 would have a larger impact than the tail end of the 6 and the introduction of the 6S did two years ago even if unit sales are down.
iPhone unit sales for the quarter aren't anything to write home about either. While it isn't a drop like last quarter, the number of units only increased 1.5% from the same quarter last year. When compared to 3rd quarter 2015 though, sales have dropped from 47.5 million to 41 million which is a 13.7% decreased. Revenue in 2015 was also quite a bit higher at $49.6 billion.
Basically 2017 was slightly better than 2016, but it is substantially worse than 2015 when the iPhone 6 was out.
iPhone 6 was the first big Apple phone. Lot of pent up demand. Not typical.
Amazing. I expect Apple to do good things in the original content arena going forward also, what with the several entertainment industry hires that were recently made.
So sales of the Mac are still going up. Despite some claims that the upsurge was only due to pent-up demand for a new Mac and that a new Mac was released.
So sales of the Mac are still going up. Despite some claims that the upsurge was only due to pent-up demand for a new Mac and that a new Mac was released.
Yep, I agree. Plus I'd add more and more games are crossing over, it's a small but significant tell tail IMHO. Macs are not going anywhere any time soon I am glad to believe. With AR and VR coming to Macs too Apple should buy Steam, their own game portal has been one of the few bleak spots for Apple.
So sales of the Mac are still going up. Despite some claims that the upsurge was only due to pent-up demand for a new Mac and that a new Mac was released.
Yep, I agree. Plus I'd add more and more games are crossing over, it's a small but significant tell tail IMHO. Macs are not going anywhere any time soon I am glad to believe. With AR and VR coming to Macs too Apple should buy Steam, their own game portal has been one of the few bleak spots for Apple.
They could certainly do some kind of exclusive deal, but why should they buy Steam? Why bother?
Tim Cook isn't holding out any huge hope for the 4th quarter. In 2015 the 4th quarter revenue was $51.5 billion. Even at the top end of his estimates they will barely beat where they were two years ago. I'm thinking the new iPhone isn't going to launch before October 1. That kind of stagnant revenue growth is more likely from the launch of the 7S as opposed to the 8. At what is anticipated to be an entry price of $1,000 I would think the iPhone 8 would have a larger impact than the tail end of the 6 and the introduction of the 6S did two years ago even if unit sales are down.
iPhone unit sales for the quarter aren't anything to write home about either. While it isn't a drop like last quarter, the number of units only increased 1.5% from the same quarter last year. When compared to 3rd quarter 2015 though, sales have dropped from 47.5 million to 41 million which is a 13.7% decreased. Revenue in 2015 was also quite a bit higher at $49.6 billion.
Basically 2017 was slightly better than 2016, but it is substantially worse than 2015 when the iPhone 6 was out.
iPhone 6 was the first big Apple phone. Lot of pent up demand. Not typical.
That's pretty much my rationale for thinking the iPhone 8 won't launch in the 4th quarter. This won't be a typical release cycle either. There is a lot of pent up demand again, so much so that Tim Cook blamed that potential demand for the unit sales decline last quarter. While it may be production constrained Apple will undoubtedly sell every iPhone 8 it can make. I would expect the launch of the 8 would have substantially more revenue impact than the launch of the 6S on comparative 4th quarter financials. Hence my doubt it is coming out before October.
However, if they do launch in the quarter, it likely won't be until the very end, having a relatively small impact on the period.
For its fiscal 2017 fourth quarter, Apple provided the following guidance:
revenue between $49 billion and $52 billion
I'm trying to understand this -- projected revenue for next quarter which ends September, which means approximately 8 days of new iPhones sales if they go on sale Friday, September 22nd:
52 billion on the high end.
Up from 45 billion this past quarter.
How is that a "relatively small impact on the period"? Surely this includes some new iPhone launch revenue?
Pointless comparing Q4 to Q3, each quarter have very different sales cycles. Yes the quarter will contain a few days of new iPhone sales, but it does every year.
Q4 2016 was $46.9 billion so Apple is certainly expecting some growth in revenue. Some of that will be on-going increases in services revenues but clearly some is from new products. If we assume it is iPhone related, Apple either expect it to do better than the iPhone 7 or they plan to launch earlier to get more sales into the quarter. One thing it hopefully suggests is that there won't be a delay or shortage of phones at launch.
52 billion is exceptionally high. And the 3 billion spread (instead of usual 2 billion) is the telling factor. That's Apple not knowing how many iPhone 8 they will be able to ship in those 8 days. But they know they will be shipping them -- as many as they possibly can.
The point I was trying to make is that it seems Neil was riding on the idea that the Q4 guidance was not going to include much in the way of iPhone 8 projection, and that turned out to be completely wrong.melgross said:
However, if they do launch in the quarter, it likely won't be until the very end, having a relatively small impact on the period.
For its fiscal 2017 fourth quarter, Apple provided the following guidance:
revenue between $49 billion and $52 billion
I'm trying to understand this -- projected revenue for next quarter which ends September, which means approximately 8 days of new iPhones sales if they go on sale Friday, September 22nd:
52 billion on the high end.
Up from 45 billion this past quarter.
How is that a "relatively small impact on the period"? Surely this includes some new iPhone launch revenue?
It’s a back to school quarter, so results are normally up. The question is what Apple would guide to. If below $49 billion, then it’s expected that the iPhone 8 would be delayed. Above that, then it’s expected to be on time. One week could be anywhere from 4 to 8 million in presales and sales, for that one model alone. Multiply by an ASP of $680, and you get a big number for a week, or so. If the phone is delayed, then that number isn’t there.
but my thinking here is that with iPad sales up over 14%, a big part of that optimistic quidance could be to that, rather than whether the iPhone 8 is delayed, or not. So it’s still hard to tell. I could not gather anything from the conference call about that, as expected.
Pretty much everyone that I've seen has concluded that these numbers mean iPhone 8 shipments will take place in the last week of September -- and Apple's guidance reflects that they know this, they just don't know how many they will be able to ship. An extra 1 million units shipped before the month ends is another 1 billion in revenue for Q4.
Everyone knows that the iPhone 6 was an aberration caused by pent up demand for larger screens. Far more important to look at trends from 5 to 7 unless you have an agenda.
That’s actually true. iphone 6 and 6+ sales were up a whopping 48% that year. I’ve been saying that it caused a lot of people who were two year cycle people to buy a new phone a year ahead of their normal plans. When the next year came, with the 6S 6S+ models, the expected upgraders for that year had partly upgraded the year before, and so didn’t upgrade that year, leading to a 15% drop in sales. This year, sales are slightly up from last year, and next year’s are expected to hit record highs.
However, if they do launch in the quarter, it likely won't be until the very end, having a relatively small impact on the period.
For its fiscal 2017 fourth quarter, Apple provided the following guidance:
revenue between $49 billion and $52 billion
I'm trying to understand this -- projected revenue for next quarter which ends September, which means approximately 8 days of new iPhones sales if they go on sale Friday, September 22nd:
52 billion on the high end.
Up from 45 billion this past quarter.
How is that a "relatively small impact on the period"? Surely this includes some new iPhone launch revenue?
Pointless comparing Q4 to Q3, each quarter have very different sales cycles. Yes the quarter will contain a few days of new iPhone sales, but it does every year.
Q4 2016 was $46.9 billion so Apple is certainly expecting some growth in revenue. Some of that will be on-going increases in services revenues but clearly some is from new products. If we assume it is iPhone related, Apple either expect it to do better than the iPhone 7 or they plan to launch earlier to get more sales into the quarter. One thing it hopefully suggests is that there won't be a delay or shortage of phones at launch.
52 billion is exceptionally high. And the 3 billion spread (instead of usual 2 billion) is the telling factor. That's Apple not knowing how many iPhone 8 they will be able to ship in those 8 days. But they know they will be shipping them -- as many as they possibly can.
The point I was trying to make is that it seems Neil was riding on the idea that the Q4 guidance was not going to include much in the way of iPhone 8 projection, and that turned out to be completely wrong.melgross said:
However, if they do launch in the quarter, it likely won't be until the very end, having a relatively small impact on the period.
For its fiscal 2017 fourth quarter, Apple provided the following guidance:
revenue between $49 billion and $52 billion
I'm trying to understand this -- projected revenue for next quarter which ends September, which means approximately 8 days of new iPhones sales if they go on sale Friday, September 22nd:
52 billion on the high end.
Up from 45 billion this past quarter.
How is that a "relatively small impact on the period"? Surely this includes some new iPhone launch revenue?
It’s a back to school quarter, so results are normally up. The question is what Apple would guide to. If below $49 billion, then it’s expected that the iPhone 8 would be delayed. Above that, then it’s expected to be on time. One week could be anywhere from 4 to 8 million in presales and sales, for that one model alone. Multiply by an ASP of $680, and you get a big number for a week, or so. If the phone is delayed, then that number isn’t there.
but my thinking here is that with iPad sales up over 14%, a big part of that optimistic quidance could be to that, rather than whether the iPhone 8 is delayed, or not. So it’s still hard to tell. I could not gather anything from the conference call about that, as expected.
Pretty much everyone that I've seen has concluded that these numbers mean iPhone 8 shipments will take place in the last week of September -- and Apple's guidance reflects that they know this, they just don't know how many they will be able to ship. An extra 1 million units shipped before the month ends is another 1 billion in revenue for Q4.
I don’t care what pretty much everyone thinks or says. They’re often wrong. I’m amazed at how little writers and analysts seem to know, or understand about this. Everything we read about this iPhone’s delivery schedule is guessing. I’m not impressed.
we can look to the erroneous drivel written by so many about the 15% drop in iPhone 6S sales. I wrote here, and in a number of other places, almost as soon as the 6S series came out, that sales would be down, and why it didn’t matter. But Apple’s stock took a big, extended, drop because of it, because it wasn’t understood.
the same thing is true here. Everyone is fixated by the iPhone 8. So fixated, that they aren’t capable of looking anywhere else. How many people here honestly expected that instead of another 15% drop in iPad sales, we got a 15% increase? Honestly. That was an astounding 30% turnaround. If Apple is expecting the same thing for this quarter, and remember that this quarter’s report was 10 days later than normal, then a large part of the guidance could be another 2%, or more (I would be expecting) rise in dollar based iPad sales volume, instead of the expected 10-15% drop. That alone would account for the high guidance. And remember that Apple has a decent idea of what iPad sales will be, as we’ve already passed the first month in sales for the quarter.
one reason for Apple’s sales numbers being lower over the past two years was iPad sales drops. Estimates for this quarter’s sales were lower than what Apple did, partly because of that expected iPad drop. The excellent numbers for this quarter came despite matching last year’s sales in iPhones and Macs. The rise in services helped, but that was expected, going by past performance. So what’s was different? The iPad sales rise.
if, as you say, Apple sells 1 million iPhone 8s during that last week, or so, then that would be well below what it would be expected to do given a normal volume of phones available. So then we could easily say that Apple worked very hard to get some of them out the door, but failed to get a normal number out. Therefor, effectively, it would be mostly delayed, with long waits. Or, Apple could actually delay it until more inventory was built up. It’s really hard to say which would be better (for the stock price). But on Bloomberg, in a discussion of Apple results, one financial company ceo said that it shouldn’t bother people one way or the other, because customers for the phone would wait, and so if sales didn’t generate this quarter, they would next quarter, or whenever it came out.
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So sales of the Mac are still going up. Despite some claims that the upsurge was only due to pent-up demand for a new Mac and that a new Mac was released.
The point I was trying to make is that it seems Neil was riding on the idea that the Q4 guidance was not going to include much in the way of iPhone 8 projection, and that turned out to be completely wrong.melgross said: Pretty much everyone that I've seen has concluded that these numbers mean iPhone 8 shipments will take place in the last week of September -- and Apple's guidance reflects that they know this, they just don't know how many they will be able to ship. An extra 1 million units shipped before the month ends is another 1 billion in revenue for Q4.
That’s actually true. iphone 6 and 6+ sales were up a whopping 48% that year. I’ve been saying that it caused a lot of people who were two year cycle people to buy a new phone a year ahead of their normal plans. When the next year came, with the 6S 6S+ models, the expected upgraders for that year had partly upgraded the year before, and so didn’t upgrade that year, leading to a 15% drop in sales. This year, sales are slightly up from last year, and next year’s are expected to hit record highs.
we can look to the erroneous drivel written by so many about the 15% drop in iPhone 6S sales. I wrote here, and in a number of other places, almost as soon as the 6S series came out, that sales would be down, and why it didn’t matter. But Apple’s stock took a big, extended, drop because of it, because it wasn’t understood.
the same thing is true here. Everyone is fixated by the iPhone 8. So fixated, that they aren’t capable of looking anywhere else. How many people here honestly expected that instead of another 15% drop in iPad sales, we got a 15% increase? Honestly. That was an astounding 30% turnaround. If Apple is expecting the same thing for this quarter, and remember that this quarter’s report was 10 days later than normal, then a large part of the guidance could be another 2%, or more (I would be expecting) rise in dollar based iPad sales volume, instead of the expected 10-15% drop. That alone would account for the high guidance. And remember that Apple has a decent idea of what iPad sales will be, as we’ve already passed the first month in sales for the quarter.
one reason for Apple’s sales numbers being lower over the past two years was iPad sales drops. Estimates for this quarter’s sales were lower than what Apple did, partly because of that expected iPad drop. The excellent numbers for this quarter came despite matching last year’s sales in iPhones and Macs. The rise in services helped, but that was expected, going by past performance. So what’s was different? The iPad sales rise.
if, as you say, Apple sells 1 million iPhone 8s during that last week, or so, then that would be well below what it would be expected to do given a normal volume of phones available. So then we could easily say that Apple worked very hard to get some of them out the door, but failed to get a normal number out. Therefor, effectively, it would be mostly delayed, with long waits. Or, Apple could actually delay it until more inventory was built up. It’s really hard to say which would be better (for the stock price). But on Bloomberg, in a discussion of Apple results, one financial company ceo said that it shouldn’t bother people one way or the other, because customers for the phone would wait, and so if sales didn’t generate this quarter, they would next quarter, or whenever it came out.