TrueDepth Camera with Face ID could limit Apple's iPhone X production to 30M units this ye...

AppleInsider

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities has slashed his forecast for iPhone X shipments this fall to between 30 million and 35 million units, though he also told investors that any negative reaction to production issues could make for an attractive opportunity to buy more shares of AAPL.

While Kuo revised his iPhone X shipments lower, he isn't concerned about the device's long-term prospects. He believes competing manufacturers who build Android devices will take up to two and a half years to catch up with Apple's Face ID technology.

In the interim, Apple will solve its TrueDepth Camera production issues in short order, allowing the company to not only increase iPhone X manufacturing, but also to bring the technology to other models in the coming years.

"As issues with the production of TrueDepth Camera can potentially be overcome in a few months, we have full confidence in iPhone's growth prospects in the high-end smartphone market in 2018-19," Kuo wrote.

In the short-term, however, consumers may be waiting to get their hands on the iPhone X. Though the iPhone X is set to launch on Nov. 3, numerous supply chain reports have indicated that the handset's TrueDepth Camera is a bottleneck for Apple's production.

Apple's Face ID technology introduced in the iPhone X is made up of four components including an infrared camera, a flood illuminator, a dot projector, and the front camera. The combination of sensors generates a 3D map of the face that it compares to the mathematical models of the stored face, utilizing the new A11 Bionic neural engine.

Apple says Face ID will be more secure and reliable than Touch ID, the fingerprint-based technology it is superseding.

tmay

Looks like Apple, will have to face the (Apple) Music.

Me, I'm waiting for X2 anyway, so new Apple Watch and iMac Pro on my list.

lkrupp

AppleInsider said:

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities has slashed his forecast for iPhone X shipments this fall to between 30 million and 35 million units, though he also told investors that any negative reaction to production issues could make for an attractive opportunity to buy more shares of AAPL.

Translation: Manipulate AAPL by FUD’ing the price down to buy more at a discount. And voilà, AAPL is down $1.03. That’s how it works people. The stock market runs on two things and two things only, greed and fear. Nothing else matters.

edited October 2017

tmay

lkrupp said:

AppleInsider said:

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities has slashed his forecast for iPhone X shipments this fall to between 30 million and 35 million units, though he also told investors that any negative reaction to production issues could make for an attractive opportunity to buy more shares of AAPL.

Translation: Manipulate AAPL by FUD’ing the price down to buy more at a discount. And voilà, AAPL is down $1.03. That’s how it works people. The stock market runs on two things and two things only, greed and fear. Nothing else matters.

Remember when selling 30 million iPhones a quarter was a large number?

foggyhill

He's changed his "assessment" 4 times now in 1 month...

The situation at the manufacturer doesn't change that often.

Tells you everything you need to know about this bozo.

zoetmb

So this fiscal will be down a little and next fiscal will be a bit higher as production ramps up.  Much ado about nothing.   Unless one believes that a shortage of iPhone X's over the next 8-12 weeks is going to cause people to buy a non-Apple smartphone instead, which I think is a largely absurd notion.  Someone who desperately needs a phone is more likely to "settle" for an iPhone 8.   There's probably a cutoff earlier than 12/31 as to what Apple considers part of this fiscal year anyway.   I bet the date they use is the date they ship phones to dealers and their own stores and the date they "ship" phones to their own e-commerce store.   

If anything, a shortage of phones might increase demand.   People always want what they can't get.   

Phones are not movies.   It's not about the "opening weekend".  

anilu_777

I’m hoping for a X plus next year so I bought the 8+ this year. I like big phones for better typing. 

slurpy

So, Apple may only sell 30-35,000,000 of a single iPhone model (and tens of millions more of their other models) in a span of less than 2 months? 
What a fucking disaster. Apple might as well just wrap it up. /s

Wasn't there some other shitty "report" not long ago that they were only manufacturing 10,000 iPhone X per day? Assuming they ramped up production a month ago, with that rate for 3 months that would be around a million units. So, this estimate is now 30X the previous. 

How about this prediction- Apple will sell every single fucking iPhone X it can make for the forseeable future. Everything else is just noise. 

metriacanthosaurus

Maybe I'm missing something but...

Ming's own production estimates put iPhone X at 12 million units ready to ship on Nov. 3rd.

Apple sold 13 million iPhones on 6s launch weekend in 2015. We can assume Apple would have sold something like 15-16 million on launch weekend in 2016 had any 7 Plus been ready to go.  Here in 2017, undoubtedly they've already sold a few million iPhone 8. So what could the potential demand be for iPhone X at launch? I have a hard time believing that Apple could sell more than 12-15 million iPhone X on launch weekend, even if the units were available. There is no data to suggest otherwise.

So if Apple really has 12 million units ready to go, it is going to be a rather smooth launch.

badmonk

I have a feeling Apple will sell all iPhone X units they can make this year by the end of opening weekend.

suddenly newton

tmay said:

lkrupp said:

AppleInsider said:

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities has slashed his forecast for iPhone X shipments this fall to between 30 million and 35 million units, though he also told investors that any negative reaction to production issues could make for an attractive opportunity to buy more shares of AAPL.

Translation: Manipulate AAPL by FUD’ing the price down to buy more at a discount. And voilà, AAPL is down $1.03. That’s how it works people. The stock market runs on two things and two things only, greed and fear. Nothing else matters.

Remember when selling 30 million iPhones a quarter was a large number?

Now 30 mil quarter means it's doomed.
I remember when Steve Ballmer chuckled at Apple charging $600 for the newly launched iPhone at a time when there was nothing like it. He was pretty sure Windows Mobile would retain top spot in Microsoft's fight against Blackberry.

gmgravytrain

foggyhill said:

He's changed his "assessment" 4 times now in 1 month...

The situation at the manufacturer doesn't change that often.

Tells you everything you need to know about this bozo.

He's definitely changing his tune far too often. Wasn't there a time when analysts used to concentrate on yearly numbers and not this constant quarterly crap? It's like they're working for the day traders or something. Do the hedge fund investors only invest for one quarter? I really don't understand the need for these constant reports. I'm not selling my Apple stock just because they run into some production problems. That can easily happen and it can usually be made up in the next quarter. iPhone production isn't like baking cookies. I also have to question where he's getting this information from. Surely, the company which produces those Romeo and Juliet modules isn't telling him they're having production problems. Apple would likely prevent that from happening. No matter how often analysts are told not to believe supply chain checks, they continue to do it. Another thing. Out of all the smartphone manufacturers on the planet, why is it that only Apple seems to have company-threatening production problems.

yojimbo007

sog35 said:

Ming Kuo.

I will repeat this again: Apple needs to send a security contractor to give Mr Ming a visit at his home and office.  Again nothing illegal. But he needs to feel Apple's presence. 

I mean how much would it cost for Apple to hire an outside contractor to visit Mr Ming?  Maybe 5 or 6 security experts.  Have a little 'chat' with Ming.

And the likes of him .

fastasleep

lkrupp said:

AppleInsider said:

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities has slashed his forecast for iPhone X shipments this fall to between 30 million and 35 million units, though he also told investors that any negative reaction to production issues could make for an attractive opportunity to buy more shares of AAPL.

Translation: Manipulate AAPL by FUD’ing the price down to buy more at a discount. And voilà, AAPL is down $1.03. That’s how it works people. The stock market runs on two things and two things only, greed and fear. Nothing else matters.

Can you really point to a singular cause for a .6% change in one day with any certainty?

nuttyappledude

jeez. now we have to behead someone to read their emails....

leavingthebigg

lkrupp said:

AppleInsider said:

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities has slashed his forecast for iPhone X shipments this fall to between 30 million and 35 million units, though he also told investors that any negative reaction to production issues could make for an attractive opportunity to buy more shares of AAPL.

Translation: Manipulate AAPL by FUD’ing the price down to buy more at a discount. And voilà, AAPL is down $1.03. That’s how it works people. The stock market runs on two things and two things only, greed and fear. Nothing else matters.

Agreed. To reach this 30-35 million iPhone X shipments Kuo is forecasting manufacturing iPhone Xs MUST have increased astronomically from 10,000 per day! Interestingly, AppleInsider and others never question Kuo's forecasts.

randominternetperson

zoetmb said:

So this fiscal will be down a little and next fiscal will be a bit higher as production ramps up.  Much ado about nothing.   Unless one believes that a shortage of iPhone X's over the next 8-12 weeks is going to cause people to buy a non-Apple smartphone instead, which I think is a largely absurd notion.  Someone who desperately needs a phone is more likely to "settle" for an iPhone 8.   There's probably a cutoff earlier than 12/31 as to what Apple considers part of this fiscal year anyway.   I bet the date they use is the date they ship phones to dealers and their own stores and the date they "ship" phones to their own e-commerce store.   

If anything, a shortage of phones might increase demand.   People always want what they can't get.   

Phones are not movies.   It's not about the "opening weekend".  

I'm not saying that this analyst's report is accurate, but logically it does matter if Apple can't make enough iPhone Xs to satisfy demand.  The iPhone product line represents a long-term stream of income from consumers as they buy one iPhone after another.  Anything that increases the time between sales (for example, my purchasing an iPhone 8 or X to replace my 6s) reduces the net present value of my steam of iPhone purchases.  Suppose I can't get my hands on an iPhone X until March instead of November.  None of the consequences of that are good for Apple.  I may decide to just wait 6 more months and get an iPhone 11; I may buy the X when I can, but not replace it for 2 years, or (best case scenario) I buy it in March and don't change my future buying habits.  In each case the net present value of my future iPhone purchases is lower than if they had more available at launch.

Having said that, I'm sure Apple is doing everything they can do make as many Xs as they can as fast as they can, so it is what it is.  But if I were a financial analyst trying to determine the revenue stream for Apple, this constraint is relevant.