Supply chain scuttlebutt stokes fears that Apple's $999 iPhone X price is too high

Posted:
in iPhone
Ahead of typical seasonal trends, where iPhone sales traditionally cool off after the holidays, supply chain reports have begun projecting doom and gloom for Apple's flagship iPhone X, prompting analysts to cut estimates.




The hand wringing over iPhone X sales began when hit-or-miss Taiwanese industry publication the Economic Daily News cited supply chain sources as saying Apple trimmed iPhone X orders next quarter from 50 million units to 30 million. Shares of Apple suppliers subsequently fell as analysts trimmed their estimates, Bloomberg noted in a report.

Apple officials have long warned against reading too much into supply chain speculation, as the company's large and complex series of suppliers make it difficult to pinpoint specific trends.

Similar concerns already cropped up in the fall, when the iPhone 8 launched weeks ahead of the iPhone X. Market watchers pondered who would buy Apple's mid-range handset when a premium flagship model was coming shortly thereafter.

As it turned out, the iPhone 8 outperformed its predecessor, the iPhone 7. iPhone sales during the launch quarter grew to 46.7 million, driven by the debuts of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus.




Apple does not break down iPhone sales by model, so without attempting to decipher average selling price data, it's impossible to know exactly which handset is most popular at any given time. However, the $999-and-up pricing of the iPhone X are predicted by more bullish analysts to help drive iPhone ASP to a record high of $740.

If that prediction proves true, it would blow away the $695 ASP achieved in the holiday 2016 quarter -- the first full frame of iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus sales.

Sales of the iPhone X kicked off in early November, with availability limited at launch but gradually increasing. While the December quarter will represent the launch of the iPhone X, the proceeding March frame will actually be the first full quarter of iPhone X sales.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 40
    Lol. Same song, verse 2. Or 200...
    edited December 2017 watto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 40
    linkmanlinkman Posts: 1,002member
    I think we are seeing this same cycle with every iPhone model: Apple introduces new phone, analysts claim supply too little to meet demand and the sales are weak, Apple then announces huge iPhone sales, analysts then claim Apple cuts orders, then Apple announces huge iPhone sales. Add stock volatility in the mix due to Wall Street paying attention to analysts.
    netmagelkruppSpamSandwichrusswdhawkins541StrangeDaysLukeCagewatto_cobraleptonbkkcanuck
  • Reply 3 of 40
    Even the AppleInsider is calling out the nonsense in this article, it does play in the games throughout the without calling out the historical nonsense. Maybe AppleInsider could be much proactive in 2018 to not push the nonsense which calling out the analysts and bloggers who have been consistently found to push false news every quarter. 
    SpamSandwichStrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 40
    BebeBebe Posts: 141member
    Here we go again.
    StrangeDayspscooter63watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 40
    NY1822NY1822 Posts: 621member
    the funny part of the analyst report was that there was 50% less mentions on Weibo about the X than the 6.....
    "There were only 4.97 million Weibo posts mentioning the iPhone X so far in December compared to over 11 million for the iPhone 6 in the equivalent period in 2014, the analysis showed."

    another made up stat the fit their narrative 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 40
    ksecksec Posts: 1,567member
    NY1822 said:
    the funny part of the analyst report was that there was 50% less mentions on Weibo about the X than the 6.....
    "There were only 4.97 million Weibo posts mentioning the iPhone X so far in December compared to over 11 million for the iPhone 6 in the equivalent period in 2014, the analysis showed."

    another made up stat the fit their narrative 
    May I ask why is it made up?
  • Reply 7 of 40
    NY1822NY1822 Posts: 621member
    ksec said:
    NY1822 said:
    the funny part of the analyst report was that there was 50% less mentions on Weibo about the X than the 6.....
    "There were only 4.97 million Weibo posts mentioning the iPhone X so far in December compared to over 11 million for the iPhone 6 in the equivalent period in 2014, the analysis showed."

    another made up stat the fit their narrative 
    May I ask why is it made up?
    bc i did the search myself and it's a lie....there, now fact check me
  • Reply 8 of 40
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,791member
    ksec said:
    NY1822 said:
    the funny part of the analyst report was that there was 50% less mentions on Weibo about the X than the 6.....
    "There were only 4.97 million Weibo posts mentioning the iPhone X so far in December compared to over 11 million for the iPhone 6 in the equivalent period in 2014, the analysis showed."

    another made up stat the fit their narrative 
    May I ask why is it made up?
    It's a meaningless stat like YouTube movie trailer hits. 
    edited December 2017 watto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 40
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,791member
    How many of these analysts are ever correct?
    SpamSandwichGG1pscooter63watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 40
    The only correct with these ANALYSTS is the word that you can find in thier tittle, go figure....

    magman1979watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 40
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 8,890member
    When is the last time (if ever) that Apple missed its own forward looking guidance?
    RonnnieOchiaLukeCagemagman1979GG1pscooter63watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 40
    note:  Apple has to assume the best scenario and buy options for parts at the most optimistic sales levels through the year, and the most pessimistic QA rates as well.   Them 'cutting' orders is more a reality of the standard seasonal flow and ebb, and the supply chains saying Apple 'Ordered' XX, when in reality Apple 'required volumes UPTO XX' parts.  

    This is the reason why apple doesn't 'own/make' their own parts.  They design the key components to their spec, and even buy the equipment to make/assemble the parts for the supply chain, but there is huge risk in factory/staffing/inventory they avoid by jobbing it out.
    magman1979watto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 40
    The rubbish train just pulled in with another delivery. 

    “Taiwan's Economic Daily...citing unidentified sources...”

    Yep, we’re full!
    edited December 2017 RonnnieOmagman1979GG1pscooter63watto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 40
    BebeBebe Posts: 141member
    It is the same story every quarter and debunked as always. Let's wait for Apple earnings announcement, shall we?
    magman1979watto_cobra
  • Reply 15 of 40
    lkrupp said:
    When is the last time (if ever) that Apple missed its own forward looking guidance?
    This. Sales will be on par with guidance and the holiday quarter will be amongst its biggest ever.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 40
    Also reports of the screen and metal band scratch resistance wearing out too quickly
  • Reply 17 of 40
    trumptmantrumptman Posts: 16,464member
    Well I live in Southern California and one of my concerns is I don't have a single person I've encountered who has the iPhone X. I've only noticed it out and about in the wild 3-4 times in the hands of others. There are still mountains of iPhones out here but not the X. I also personally returned my own iPhone X because reachability it a mess.

    I also think there is truth to the pricing concerns. People focus on the pricing of the X but prices have risen overall. The highest end iPhone with every advanced feature available used to be $650. A storage upgrade put that at $750. The "low end" new iPhone now is $700. A storage upgrade puts that at $850. Since it doesn't have many of the tentpole features to drive sale since those are reserved for the X, you have to spend $1000 or $1150 respectively. That is a massive price increase no matter how people want to defend it.

    For now I'm happy with my iPhone 7. That doesn't mean Apple is dying but if enough people decide their phone is good enough then we don't have the supercycle that justifies the stock price.
  • Reply 18 of 40
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    Bloomberg reveals again how shabby and amateurish it is. Here's the lede paragraph:

    "Apple Inc. looks like it’s having a not-so Merry Christmas."

    Really, Bloomberg?

    NPR reports this morning that Apple stock is down after "reports of lackluster sales."

    Stupidity reigns. The Bloomberg article is unsigned, but Gurman should be ashamed to work there anyway.  


    StrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 40
    SoliSoli Posts: 10,029member

    Supplies are low = Apple sucks at managing a supply chain… and Tim Cook should be fired.


    Supplies are high = Apple makes an overpriced phone that no one wants…. and Tim Cook should be fired.

    edited December 2017 lkruppStrangeDayschiaLukeCageBeberusswwatto_cobra
  • Reply 20 of 40
    trumptman said:
    Well I live in Southern California and one of my concerns is I don't have a single person I've encountered who has the iPhone X. I've only noticed it out and about in the wild 3-4 times in the hands of others. There are still mountains of iPhones out here but not the X. I also personally returned my own iPhone X because reachability it a mess.

    I also think there is truth to the pricing concerns. People focus on the pricing of the X but prices have risen overall. The highest end iPhone with every advanced feature available used to be $650. A storage upgrade put that at $750. The "low end" new iPhone now is $700. A storage upgrade puts that at $850. Since it doesn't have many of the tentpole features to drive sale since those are reserved for the X, you have to spend $1000 or $1150 respectively. That is a massive price increase no matter how people want to defend it.

    For now I'm happy with my iPhone 7. That doesn't mean Apple is dying but if enough people decide their phone is good enough then we don't have the supercycle that justifies the stock price.
    Are you prepared to eat those words come next quarterly earnings report?
    russw
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