Spotify secretly files for IPO as it reaches 70M paid users

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As Spotify grows its user base to over 70 million paid subscribers, the company has also filed in secret for public offering of shares of the company's stock, but will make the shares available to the public in a non-traditional manner.




The company took to Twitter to announce the milestone. The last time it had made a public declaration of paid subscribers was in July, when it said that it had 60 million paid subscribers, with around 140 million paid subscribers plus ad-supported users at the time.

Hello 70 million subscribers

-- Spotify (@Spotify)
In contrast, Apple said during the 2017 WWDC that Apple Music had 27 million subscribers -- all paid or on the three-month trial.

Should the Security and Exchange Commission approve Spotify's plan, reports suggest that at some point in the first half of 2018, the stock will be available on the open market, without the initial public offering for investors to gage pricing and demand for the stock. This will allow investors and those granted shares of the company to not be bound by lockups, preventing sale for a set period of time, and theoretically allow early shareholders to cash out whenever they want.

The unusual method of stock sale will allow the company to go public, without needing any additional funding to do so prior to the sale.

According to Bloomberg's analysis of what is known about Spotify's documents, Google's IPO period was similar, but not identical. The search engine giant took a hybrid approach to it's initial offering, and issued over 14 million new shares in 2004, followed by 5.4 million sold by investors at an $85 per share offering price.

Spotify is facing a lawsuit from music rights management company Wixen, who administers music by Tom Petty, Zach De La Rocha and Tom Morello of Rage Against the Machine, Dan Auerbach of The Black Keys, Steely Dan's Donald Fagen, Rivers Cuomo of Weezer, David Cassidy, Neil Young, Sonic Youth's Kim Gordon and Stevie Nicks, among others. Wixen's suit alleges that a $43 million settlement that Spotify agreed to pay to settle a 2015 class action suit was insufficient, and is seeking $1.6 billion dollars to put things right.

It is not clear what effect, if any, the Wixen lawsuit will have on the public stock offering planned by Spotify.
applesnoranges

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 20
    mavemufcmavemufc Posts: 326member
    Still more than half of their users don’t actually pay for it.
    watto_cobraairnerd
     2Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 2 of 20
    EsquireCatsesquirecats Posts: 1,268member
    No lock-in shares for executives is one big fat red flag. Spotify is literally a commodity service with no differentiating products and IP that is totally owned by 3rd parties. Their business is a simple one: give it away for free and nag them until they can afford to pay for it - hoping that platform stickiness will stop them from moving to a growing list of convenient competitors.
    watto_cobraairnerdfirelock
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  • Reply 3 of 20
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Complete bs numbers, I'm part of their "paid" subscribers despite getting premiumm for 2 years as a promotion for zero, I'm guessing Rogers
    (a Canada Telecom) pays them, but its not $10/month for sure, probably no more than $4.

    I'd expect most of their "paid" customers are like that.
    If Apple barely makes money with an ASP likely 2-3 times higher than Spotify, it's likely their in deep financial shit.


    watto_cobraairnerd
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  • Reply 4 of 20
    ike17055ike17055 Posts: 121member
    Hiw does one “secretly” file for an IPO? The middle word is “Public”.  
    randominternetpersonwatto_cobraairnerd
     3Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 5 of 20
    ike17055 said:
    Hiw does one “secretly” file for an IPO? The middle word is “Public”.  
    The filed "confidential" (or not, since we all know about it now) with the SEC as a prelude to listing their shares on the market (presumably NASDAC).
    Soli
     0Likes 0Dislikes 1Informative
  • Reply 6 of 20
    Rayz2016rayz2016 Posts: 6,957member
    ike17055 said:
    Hiw does one “secretly” file for an IPO? The middle word is “Public”.  
    I was thinking the same thing. 
     0Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 7 of 20
    entropysentropys Posts: 4,403member
    Yeah, no.
    This is so the execs and board can make a motzah on the share listing from the gullible then race for the parachutes.
    bonobobwatto_cobraairnerdanton zuykovapplesnoranges
     5Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 8 of 20
    jbdragonjbdragon Posts: 2,313member
    Wait, how the hell did they jump up to 70 million paid users? How many Millions past that number are FREE users? Spotify hasn't made a profit since they first started many years ago and have lost more and more money every year. They are so far in the red, if they get into the Black at some point, they would still be in dept for years.
    watto_cobra
     1Like 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 9 of 20
    retrogustoretrogusto Posts: 1,152member
    Presumably this means that Spotify will be providing some insight into their finances to the general public before that happens, which will be interesting. I think they’ve been doing a lot better in the past couple of years, although it does seem that they have also been padding their “paid subscriber” numbers lately through various promotions, in anticipation of the IPO. In the end, it’s the kind of business where efficiency and economies of scale are everything, so the more they grow the more they lower their per-customer costs, and the more money they will be passing on to the music industry, which will help bolster their position. 
    applesnoranges
     1Like 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 10 of 20
    boltsfan17boltsfan17 Posts: 2,294member
    jbdragon said:
    Wait, how the hell did they jump up to 70 million paid users? How many Millions past that number are FREE users? Spotify hasn't made a profit since they first started many years ago and have lost more and more money every year. They are so far in the red, if they get into the Black at some point, they would still be in dept for years.
    Not sure how its hard to believe Spotify has 70 million paid users. Spotify is extremely popular and paid subscribers continue to increase. As of June, Spotify had over 140 million total users. Spotify filing for an IPO could help make the company profitable in the future. Spotify isn't doing as bad as they were, especially since they've negotiated new cheaper royalty payment deals with the record labels. 
    applesnoranges
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  • Reply 11 of 20
    bitmodbitmod Posts: 267member
    mavemufc said:
    Still more than half of their users don’t actually pay for it.
    70 million man... 70 freak'n million!!! - - 43 MILLION more than Apple. 
    That's 700 million in annual revenue from paid subscribers only. 
    Then they have an advertising audience of 70 freak'n million on top of that... 
    Then the swag... 



    applesnoranges
     1Like 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 12 of 20
    dachardachar Posts: 330member
    I tried Spotify once but gave up more than a year ago. I wonder if the user numbers have been independently audited to confirm an accurate picture of current users or if they include former users as well.
     0Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 13 of 20
    Rayz2016rayz2016 Posts: 6,957member
    bitmod said:
    mavemufc said:
    Still more than half of their users don’t actually pay for it.
    70 million man... 70 freak'n million!!! - - 43 MILLION more than Apple. 
    That's 700 million in annual revenue from paid subscribers only. 
    Then they have an advertising audience of 70 freak'n million on top of that... 
    Then the swag... 



    And still they don’t make a profit. 

    It’s almost as if every customer (paying or otherwise) also brings a cost with them. And since they charge a flat rate, then they have no idea whether that customer will be profitable or not., My guess is that many of them are not. 

    I think the the problem is that Spotify is really like an ISP for music: they will have about 20% of their customers who can be attributed to 80% of their costs, and under their current business model, the more they add then the worse it could get. 

    Maybe they need need to be looking at a some sort of usage tier, and start charging more for the individuals who are streaming music 24/7. 

    As you correctly point out, Spotify has 43 million more subscribers, but it’s possible that Apple is keeping the costs related to the service under control by keeping its subscriber levels to a manageable level.  

    https://qz.com/986641/unlike-spotify-apple-music-would-rather-make-money-than-have-400-million-users/
     0Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 14 of 20
    bitmod said:
    mavemufc said:
    Still more than half of their users don’t actually pay for it.
    70 million man... 70 freak'n million!!! - - 43 MILLION more than Apple. 
    That's 700 million in annual revenue from paid subscribers only. 
    Then they have an advertising audience of 70 freak'n million on top of that... 
    Then the swag... 



    Yeah I know, thats A LOT! but still more than half use the free service, Apple Music has a lot to catch up on..
     0Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 15 of 20
    dachar said:
    I tried Spotify once but gave up more than a year ago. I wonder if the user numbers have been independently audited to confirm an accurate picture of current users or if they include former users as well.
    What made you give it up? And did you move to Apple Music? There are some things I would change, e.g. the DT app is a bit clunky and you can't easily chromecast from it and I would tweak the way playlists are made and change the app layout a bit but otherwise I'm very happy with it. I cancelled my sub to try out Google Music in case it integrated better with Home but I didn't like it, no DT app, and recreating all of my playlists would be a nightmare so I went back to Spotify. In the end, Google better integrated Spotify with Home so I don't see myself changing any time soon. 
     0Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 16 of 20
    airnerdairnerd Posts: 693member
    I used Spotify.  Not a fan.  It was doable when it was about the only game in town and i streamed it at my work computer.  now I can throw a dart and hit a dozen streaming music companies, a few of which have better offerings.  Spotify isn't even on my list of considerations for what music I'm going to pay for.  Still haven't pulled the trigger, but it's between Apple and Amazon.  

    Amazon has ticked me off though with more and more of their music labeled "Unlimited only" and I don't want to reward them.  Looks like an Apple Family plan for me very soon, just wishing they offered an annual rate like for single stream.  I'm a family of two music listeners, but pay the same as a family of 6.  Go figure.
     0Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 17 of 20
    carnegiecarnegie Posts: 1,084member
    Rayz2016 said:
    bitmod said:
    mavemufc said:
    Still more than half of their users don’t actually pay for it.
    70 million man... 70 freak'n million!!! - - 43 MILLION more than Apple. 
    That's 700 million in annual revenue from paid subscribers only. 
    Then they have an advertising audience of 70 freak'n million on top of that... 
    Then the swag... 



    And still they don’t make a profit. 

    It’s almost as if every customer (paying or otherwise) also brings a cost with them. And since they charge a flat rate, then they have no idea whether that customer will be profitable or not., My guess is that many of them are not. 

    I think the the problem is that Spotify is really like an ISP for music: they will have about 20% of their customers who can be attributed to 80% of their costs, and under their current business model, the more they add then the worse it could get. 

    Maybe they need need to be looking at a some sort of usage tier, and start charging more for the individuals who are streaming music 24/7. 

    As you correctly point out, Spotify has 43 million more subscribers, but it’s possible that Apple is keeping the costs related to the service under control by keeping its subscriber levels to a manageable level.  

    https://qz.com/986641/unlike-spotify-apple-music-would-rather-make-money-than-have-400-million-users/
    Yes, Spotify incurs a cost with each additional paid subscriber. But that cost is known and is, for the most part (though there are some agreements in place which make this not strictly true), a set portion of the revenue which Spotify gets from that paid subscriber. That's part of the beauty of the model Spotify is working within. Its main suppliers (i.e. the music industry) have agreed to accept a portion of Spotify's revenues as payment for that which they supply rather than pricing it on a per-unit basis. More units - i.e. more songs being streamed - doesn't mean an increased cost (for music rights-holders) to Spotify. Whether a customer streams 2,000 songs a month or 5, Spotify is paying the same (e.g.) $7 per month out of that customers' (e.g.) $10 per month subscription fee to rights-holders.

    Incremental paid subscribers are profitable for Spotify. And its gross margins are pretty good. What it needs to be profitable is, mostly, scale. It has that now. It isn't yet profitable mostly because it chooses to continue to spend a lot of money on customer acquisition. That's what a lot of companies in comparable positions (and at comparable points in the development of their businesses) do and it's what Spotify should be doing. Grabbing market share is easier and cheaper now than it will be in the future when it will largely mean pulling customers away from competitors rather than pulling in customers who are new to streaming. So Spotify is delaying becoming profitable in order to grow its subscriber base as much as it can now. That should allow it to be more profitable later.

    Spotify also has significant borrowing costs and that has contributed to how much money it's been losing. That's another aspect of what it's doing where it's taking more pain now in order to be better off done the road. Instead of diluting existing owners by raising (even more) capital through new share issuances, it's raised a considerable bit through borrowing. But it has good operational cash flow now so that shouldn't represent a long-term problem. It also has a good amount of cash available so it shouldn't be a problem in the short term. I'd add that Spotify is, it seems, compensating its employees (and, I suspect, its employee owners) quite well. That has added to its loses and further suggests an ability to be profitable if that were the priority.

    If what has been reported about Spotify's results for the first half of 2017 is accurate, it's in pretty good shape now. It likely could be profitable any time it chooses to. The needed pieces are in place and the scale is there. It's just a question of when does Spotify want to sacrifice some of its great growth in order to be able to say that it's already making a profit.
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  • Reply 18 of 20
    carnegiecarnegie Posts: 1,084member

    AppleInsider said:

    ...

    Should the Security and Exchange Commission approve Spotify's plan, reports suggest that at some point in the first half of 2018, the stock will be available on the open market, without the initial public offering for investors to gage pricing and demand for the stock. This will allow investors and those granted shares of the company to not be bound by lockups, preventing sale for a set period of time, and theoretically allow early shareholders to cash out whenever they want.

    ...
    You made it clear in the article that Spotify, apparently, isn't intending to do an IPO. But your title still suggests that it is.

    If reports are accurate, Spotify hasn't filed for an IPO. It hasn't filed for any stock offering, actually. It's filed to be able to do a direct listing - to list existing shares such that they can be publicly traded on, e.g., the NYSE. That would effectively mean taking Spotify public, but without a new offering.
     0Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 19 of 20
    bitmod said:
    mavemufc said:
    Still more than half of their users don’t actually pay for it.
    70 million man... 70 freak'n million!!! - - 43 MILLION more than Apple. 
    That's 700 million in annual revenue from paid subscribers only. 
    Then they have an advertising audience of 70 freak'n million on top of that... 
    Then the swag... 



    Oh yeah, the swag indeed 😎
     0Likes 0Dislikes 0Informatives
  • Reply 20 of 20
    chasmchasm Posts: 3,711member
    jbdragon said:
    Wait, how the hell did they jump up to 70 million paid users?
    Not sure how its hard to believe Spotify has 70 million paid users.
    Both of you should read the article a bit more closely: it says that the 70 million “subscriber” figure includes those on the free trial. That’s not to be confused with the ad-supported free *tier*, but it is counting people who are not (yet) paying for it, some of whom won’t continue with the subscription (just as some people don’t opt for the subscription to Apple Music after their more generous three-month free trial). The truth of the matter is that Spotify still has more paid (really paid) subscribers than Apple Music, but doesn’t seem to be growing at the same clip Apple Music is (though we’ll get some further insight on that — maybe —on the next analyst conference call). People thinking of investing in Spotify may well see a quick return, but if I were them I’d pay *close* attention to the current songwriter lawsuit (which is unlikely to be resolved before the stock offering). If the publishing companies score even a partial victory, I think it would prove that Spotify’s business model is unsustainable, and that this move was just a “cashing out” move by the current management.
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