I’m surprised r. Campbell didn’t get the memo the other AI writers seem to have gotten, which is that Nikkei pushes this narrative *every year* at this time, and every year they are wrong.
The iPhone X is the top-selling model of smartphone in the world. FACT.
In a world of alternative facts, facts themselves can be problematic.
All we can do is apply some logic and common sense.
Until this time next year Apple will not have peaked again. That's logical as Apple's historical model - up to this last release - was to release just two new phones a year and at the same time, hence high sales of relatively new models. The fact that Apple's iPhone 'x' is the top seller doesn't paint much of the picture as another vendor overtook Apple globally for at least half of last year but didn't register any top models because it offers a larger spread of models.
Something that Apple is now trying too and probably not because it wanted to but due to market conditions.
Some people are claiming Apple did better than expected because overall industry sales showed the largest slowdown in smartphone history. I think that needs some fleshing out. That reported slowdown was for the last quarter of 2017. Annually, industry sales were actually slightly up.
Apple's were basically flat but ASP was up. I suppose one way of looking at that is that Apple users are simply paying more than ever for the same amount of phones. Not sure if that situation is ideal for iPhone users.
However, with the new, far more varied model spread, at least iPhone users have far more options before them than ever before. Those that paid more iPhones probably convinced themselves that the price was worth it. We'll see how many more feel the same way as the year progresses.
However, we know that the market probably can't sustain record iPhone X sales all year round and that sustained growth was in the middle tiers. That's common sense and seeing that Apple's peak period has just passed, this latest report is stating part of the obvious. Whether things are really as dramatic as the estimates claim is something else.
Apple's biggest problem is also the industry's biggest problem: largely flat sales.
The industry has wiggle room in general as the developing world will be looked to for growth. The iPhone X won't have much say in that but there are rumours of a spring SE style phone. That's good for a few reasons.
It helps break Apple out of the yearly Christmas-focussed release cycle and the subsequent lull where competitors can release an avalanche of new models/features throughout the year, and adds a new stimulus for budget (and possibly size) conscious iPhone users. It also helps Apple even out the manufacturing strain by releasing phones 'out of season'.
Something from Strategy Analytics:
"Neil Mawston, Executive Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “Apple shipped 77.3 million smartphones worldwide in Q4 2017, slipping 1 percent annually from 78.3 million in Q4 2016. Despite robust iPhone X demand and an iPhone average selling price approaching an incredible US$800, we note global iPhone volumes have actually declined on an annual basis for 5 of the past 8 quarters. If Apple wants to expand shipment volumes in the future, it will need to launch a new wave of cheaper iPhones and start to push down, not up, the pricing curve. Samsung dipped 4 percent annually and shipped 74.4 million smartphones for 19 percent marketshare worldwide in Q4 2017, up slightly from 18 percent share a year ago. Samsung is under pressure from Chinese rivals in some major markets, like China and India, but it remains by far the largest smartphone brand on a global basis, shipping an unmatched 317.5 million units in full-year 2017.”
the funny thing is this same report was released Monday morning...I guess Nikkei forgot it was Presidents' day on Monday and the Stock Market was closed in the US....so they had to release the report again !!! hahahah
And they had to change the report from yesterday to justify re-releasing the report, so they added the words "or fewer" onto only producing "20 million".
I just had two failed Face ID authentications to log on to this forum and had to type in my passcode.
No one here believes you have an iPhoneX.
I do, really I do. But there’s no way I can prove this anyway. I could say the same thing about you claiming to have (or not have) certain hardware. Why the hell would I lie about having an iPhone X? This is not a highschool forum. Grow up man.
I just had two failed Face ID authentications to log on to this forum and had to type in my passcode. That’s become the new norm. I miss Touch ID. After the hype people realized that the X is not a great phone. It’s good, but it’s not great. Apple charged $250 extra to provide a solution for a problem that didn’t exist.
Indeed... I'm typing my passcode more times per week than I did in the years with TouchID... my g-friend would love to upgrade to the X, but she sees the passcode hassle I've had and has decided on either an 8 or 8plus (still money for Apple )...
I guess FaceID is optimized for white guys in warmer climates (without their caps and scarfs, jackets, face protection), who don't run around a lot and can stay still to point their phone at their face... oh and then after that still have to take my gloves off to swipe the phone up...
Well I can only give you my experience (I’m cacausian) but experience the same issues. I never realized there could be a difference per race? I know it’s not simply a camera system but more advanced depth scanning that works with no light at all, so I’m surprised skin color or facial features with certain races affect the ability to recognize you? I’m sure Apple would want to avoid such a difference to avoid a scandal? I live both in Southern California and Notthern Europe and I do get pissed off when Face ID again fails to recognize me with a scarf and hat when in Europe. Not even to mention when it gets locked in the car and need to stick it in my face, versus just resting my finger on the home button while remaining focused on the road. Or the lack of recognition in landscape mode. So incredibly dumb Apple just ignored all these usability regressions just so they can hide the home button. Or the awkward close-app gesture (because yes, closing apps sometimes is the better solution).
To me the next iPhone X really needs Touch ID embedded in the screen. I’m fine having no home button. I’m not fine having only a mediocre way to authenticate me while knowing there’s a better way.
I just had two failed Face ID authentications to log on to this forum and had to type in my passcode.
No one here believes you have an iPhoneX.
I do, really I do. But there’s no way I can prove this anyway. I could say the same thing about you claiming to have (or not have) certain hardware. Why the hell would I lie about having an iPhone X? This is not a highschool forum. Grow up man.
Just ignore "kill the messenger" stuff, it's weak sauce to begin with. You end up going down an endless black hole to try and appease some silliness so it's not worth it. Let it go.
Folk ask why Tim Cook doesn’t do more to protect the share price. This is why. How many times have we heard that you cannot glean anything from Apple’s complex supply ch— Holy cow! Is that Jony Ive … smiling??
If the Samsung Production is too high, it is not because the sky is falling and Apple is going under. To the suppliers who could not , would not , did not , furnish all the components Apple wanted, when they wanted them, at the right price - Beware, your sky is falling. When Apple stops production of the iPhoneX they will simply increase the production of the new iPhones for 2018 year - And I can hardly wait to get one; same for the iPadPro Models. Here comes AR with practical uses.
I just had two failed Face ID authentications to log on to this forum and had to type in my passcode. That’s become the new norm. I miss Touch ID. After the hype people realized that the X is not a great phone. It’s good, but it’s not great. Apple charged $250 extra to provide a solution for a problem that didn’t exist.
BS. Face ID has worked flawlessly. Only times I've ever had to enter my passcode is when the phone has been off or if I don't feel like lifting my sunglasses to let it see my eyes. So much more convenient than Touch ID. Don't even have to think about it.
I just had two failed Face ID authentications to log on to this forum and had to type in my passcode. That’s become the new norm. I miss Touch ID. After the hype people realized that the X is not a great phone. It’s good, but it’s not great. Apple charged $250 extra to provide a solution for a problem that didn’t exist.
Indeed... I'm typing my passcode more times per week than I did in the years with TouchID... my g-friend would love to upgrade to the X, but she sees the passcode hassle I've had and has decided on either an 8 or 8plus (still money for Apple )...
I guess FaceID is optimized for white guys in warmer climates (without their caps and scarfs, jackets, face protection), who don't run around a lot and can stay still to point their phone at their face... oh and then after that still have to take my gloves off to swipe the phone up...
Well I can only give you my experience (I’m cacausian) but experience the same issues. I never realized there could be a difference per race? I know it’s not simply a camera system but more advanced depth scanning that works with no light at all, so I’m surprised skin color or facial features with certain races affect the ability to recognize you? I’m sure Apple would want to avoid such a difference to avoid a scandal? I live both in Southern California and Notthern Europe and I do get pissed off when Face ID again fails to recognize me with a scarf and hat when in Europe. Not even to mention when it gets locked in the car and need to stick it in my face, versus just resting my finger on the home button while remaining focused on the road. Or the lack of recognition in landscape mode. So incredibly dumb Apple just ignored all these usability regressions just so they can hide the home button. Or the awkward close-app gesture (because yes, closing apps sometimes is the better solution).
To me the next iPhone X really needs Touch ID embedded in the screen. I’m fine having no home button. I’m not fine having only a mediocre way to authenticate me while knowing there’s a better way.
You're disappointed that a Face ID system doesn't work when it can't see your face?! Closing apps is a breeze once you learn the gesture. (Although, I will admit the need to push down on the apps after bringing up the deck does seem redundant.)
They either decided to use LCD vs. OLED in iPhone 9 (?) or they are ramping up another supplier like LG, or both. Samsung's days are number as an Apple supplier/manufacture.
I just had two failed Face ID authentications to log on to this forum and had to type in my passcode. That’s become the new norm. I miss Touch ID. After the hype people realized that the X is not a great phone. It’s good, but it’s not great. Apple charged $250 extra to provide a solution for a problem that didn’t exist.
Agreed and anytime I say as much, cue a litany of personal attacks by trolls. Touch ID is better, OLED is not that great, the (technically) bigger screen is actually narrower and feels smaller, interface changes to accommodate the edge-to-edge display are annoying, etc. It all feels like a very expensive small step back. Knowing what I know now and given the Apple charging pad hasn't been released yet, I would've skipped an upgrade cycle.
Hmm... I wonder if Apple purposely exadurated expectations for the iPhone X so Samsung had to prepare to manufacture mass amounts of these displays. Now that they have invested so much into these the production of these displays, they might have to drop the selling price to entice more sales of the screen - meaning Apple can use the parts for a cheaper price, eventually gaining larger margins.
Just a thought.
To do that would be illegal. They said it on a quarterly earnings report. Lying or misrepresenting would result in at least huge fines, if not jail time.
I just had two failed Face ID authentications to log on to this forum and had to type in my passcode. That’s become the new norm. I miss Touch ID. After the hype people realized that the X is not a great phone. It’s good, but it’s not great. Apple charged $250 extra to provide a solution for a problem that didn’t exist.
Sure you did, sure you did. With your posting history of constant negativity towards Apple... sure you did. Maybe on your Samsung but not an iPhone X.
Apple sold 77.3 million iPhones in the first fiscal for this year and had a record $88.3 billion in net sales and over $20 billion in net income. The quarter is from 9/30 to 12/30. The iPhone X was released on 11/3. It's hard to believe that the iPhone X wasn't a large part of that record quarter.
So either the iPhone X is selling incredibly well or it's not and the iPhone 8 and 8+, which were released on 9/22 sold far better than previous models.
It DID sell incredibly well...for one quarter, until everyone willing to spend >$1000 for a phone bought one, now people are done and sales are down.
Or the record high price of the X accounts for those numbers and the ridiculous net profit on each iPhone X helped the net income.
Just imagine if the X were $100 less or $200 less (and Apple still making a healthy profit)...can you say stock crash? What is Apple going to do? Their customers have spoken and they don't want to spend over a $1000 for a phone. Now, how is Apple going to keep their sales and profits growing when people didn't take the bait on an overpriced X or 11? This year should be interesting for Apple. I hope they have other products in the pipeline because I think the iPhone has crested.
Apple sold 77.3 million iPhones in the first fiscal for this year and had a record $88.3 billion in net sales and over $20 billion in net income. The quarter is from 9/30 to 12/30. The iPhone X was released on 11/3. It's hard to believe that the iPhone X wasn't a large part of that record quarter.
So either the iPhone X is selling incredibly well or it's not and the iPhone 8 and 8+, which were released on 9/22 sold far better than previous models.
It DID sell incredibly well...for one quarter, until everyone willing to spend >$1000 for a phone bought one, now people are done and sales are down.
Or the record high price of the X accounts for those numbers and the ridiculous net profit on each iPhone X helped the net income.
Just imagine if the X were $100 less or $200 less (and Apple still making a healthy profit)...can you say stock crash? What is Apple going to do? Their customers have spoken and they don't want to spend over a $1000 for a phone. Now, how is Apple going to keep their sales and profits growing when people didn't take the bait on an overpriced X or 11? This year should be interesting for Apple. I hope they have other products in the pipeline because I think the iPhone has crested.
What a bizarre post. Apple's stock is not going to crash, and the X slowdown was expected. If you mean "crested" in that you won't see exponential growth anymore, that's obvious. They are selling 40-50 million phones a QUARTER. They are selling 200 million phones a year! And of course they have "more products" in the pipeline.
Specifically, Samsung was last Friday said to be in search of new customers after being "saddled with excess production capacity" of OLED panels.
This is quite dubious. Apple does not use out of the shelf OLED screens from Samsung. Apple uses custom designed screens and get them produced by Samsung’s manufacturing. How can then Samsung just retarget those screens to any other customers? This would mean that they are violating Apple’s IP by giving it to competitors.
Nikkei has had been for a while trying to spread fud about Apple for reasons that are obscure. Nikkei being a Japanese organization with close relations to Japanese corporations, it would not be surprising that they are trying this sort of manipulation to destabilize the competition of the local Japanese manufacturers which have been quite clueless on how to compete against Apple in terms of innovation.
That’s why I am not sure it makes sense to even report what Nikkei says at this point. They come up with totally unverified figures, eg. where the 45-50 million units figure comes from? And even they were shown to be wrong on their doom predictions about Apple at last quarter results, they continue to come up with what can only be called bullshit. This is troubling to say the least. They are the same by the way that last year insisted that the iPhone X will have a Touch ID on the back of the phone.
Right! So just maybe iPhoneX copycats having issues?
Even the talking heads on the CNBC financial shows are laughing at these reports now, calling them ridiculous, repetitive, and questioning their purpose and motives. Jim Cramer, of course, went off like a Falcon Heavy.
Comments
All we can do is apply some logic and common sense.
Until this time next year Apple will not have peaked again. That's logical as Apple's historical model - up to this last release - was to release just two new phones a year and at the same time, hence high sales of relatively new models. The fact that Apple's iPhone 'x' is the top seller doesn't paint much of the picture as another vendor overtook Apple globally for at least half of last year but didn't register any top models because it offers a larger spread of models.
Something that Apple is now trying too and probably not because it wanted to but due to market conditions.
Some people are claiming Apple did better than expected because overall industry sales showed the largest slowdown in smartphone history. I think that needs some fleshing out. That reported slowdown was for the last quarter of 2017. Annually, industry sales were actually slightly up.
Apple's were basically flat but ASP was up. I suppose one way of looking at that is that Apple users are simply paying more than ever for the same amount of phones. Not sure if that situation is ideal for iPhone users.
However, with the new, far more varied model spread, at least iPhone users have far more options before them than ever before. Those that paid more iPhones probably convinced themselves that the price was worth it. We'll see how many more feel the same way as the year progresses.
However, we know that the market probably can't sustain record iPhone X sales all year round and that sustained growth was in the middle tiers. That's common sense and seeing that Apple's peak period has just passed, this latest report is stating part of the obvious. Whether things are really as dramatic as the estimates claim is something else.
Apple's biggest problem is also the industry's biggest problem: largely flat sales.
The industry has wiggle room in general as the developing world will be looked to for growth. The iPhone X won't have much say in that but there are rumours of a spring SE style phone. That's good for a few reasons.
It helps break Apple out of the yearly Christmas-focussed release cycle and the subsequent lull where competitors can release an avalanche of new models/features throughout the year, and adds a new stimulus for budget (and possibly size) conscious iPhone users. It also helps Apple even out the manufacturing strain by releasing phones 'out of season'.
Something from Strategy Analytics:
"Neil Mawston, Executive Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “Apple shipped 77.3 million smartphones worldwide in Q4 2017, slipping 1 percent annually from 78.3 million in Q4 2016. Despite robust iPhone X demand and an iPhone average selling price approaching an incredible US$800, we note global iPhone volumes have actually declined on an annual basis for 5 of the past 8 quarters. If Apple wants to expand shipment volumes in the future, it will need to launch a new wave of cheaper iPhones and start to push down, not up, the pricing curve. Samsung dipped 4 percent annually and shipped 74.4 million smartphones for 19 percent marketshare worldwide in Q4 2017, up slightly from 18 percent share a year ago. Samsung is under pressure from Chinese rivals in some major markets, like China and India, but it remains by far the largest smartphone brand on a global basis, shipping an unmatched 317.5 million units in full-year 2017.”
www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180201006738/en/Strategy-Analytics-Global-Smartphone-Shipments-Tumble-9
And they had to change the report from yesterday to justify re-releasing the report, so they added the words "or fewer" onto only producing "20 million".
Why the hell would I lie about having an iPhone X? This is not a highschool forum. Grow up man.
Well I can only give you my experience (I’m cacausian) but experience the same issues. I never realized there could be a difference per race? I know it’s not simply a camera system but more advanced depth scanning that works with no light at all, so I’m surprised skin color or facial features with certain races affect the ability to recognize you? I’m sure Apple would want to avoid such a difference to avoid a scandal?
I live both in Southern California and Notthern Europe and I do get pissed off when Face ID again fails to recognize me with a scarf and hat when in Europe.
Not even to mention when it gets locked in the car and need to stick it in my face, versus just resting my finger on the home button while remaining focused on the road. Or the lack of recognition in landscape mode. So incredibly dumb Apple just ignored all these usability regressions just so they can hide the home button. Or the awkward close-app gesture (because yes, closing apps sometimes is the better solution).
To me the next iPhone X really needs Touch ID embedded in the screen.
I’m fine having no home button. I’m not fine having only a mediocre way to authenticate me while knowing there’s a better way.
Btw, just saw Steve Sinofski’s 44 tweets re Apple. Stunning. Must read. https://twitter.com/stevesi/status/963142502604779520
Closing apps is a breeze once you learn the gesture. (Although, I will admit the need to push down on the apps after bringing up the deck does seem redundant.)
Agreed and anytime I say as much, cue a litany of personal attacks by trolls. Touch ID is better, OLED is not that great, the (technically) bigger screen is actually narrower and feels smaller, interface changes to accommodate the edge-to-edge display are annoying, etc. It all feels like a very expensive small step back. Knowing what I know now and given the Apple charging pad hasn't been released yet, I would've skipped an upgrade cycle.
What a bizarre post. Apple's stock is not going to crash, and the X slowdown was expected. If you mean "crested" in that you won't see exponential growth anymore, that's obvious. They are selling 40-50 million phones a QUARTER. They are selling 200 million phones a year! And of course they have "more products" in the pipeline.