It looks to be that the user base has delayed a lot of purchases by holding on to their iPhones longer, somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 years average now. It's quite possible that average age will continue to grow, but its hard to imagine that it will grow much beyond 5 years. Belies the meme about iPhone forced obsolescence.
If we add in the users of refurbished and second hand iPhones, it's quite easy to understand how and why the user base continues to expand. Conservatively, we should start seeing a small but steady growth in unit sales trrending at a rate of 3% to 5% a year for the next few years.
Funny how that delay coincides with push for big phones yet every analyst and their dog is saying an even bigger phone is going to trigger the upgrades for these hold outs.
i personally suspect I’m just going to putting another new battery in my 5s come December. That model must be getting close to the most environmentally friendly phone they have made given its life span.
I had a friend that kept her iPhone 1 in use almost to the deprecation date for 2G communications that AT&T had imposed. She really liked the size of it. Sadly, she passed away a few months before that occurred.
The reality is, that Apple continues to support updates for any iPhone with a 64 bit ARM processor, lead by the iPhone 5S which was released in September, 2013.
The potential supercycle is going to depend on how Apple positions the rumored full-screen LCD devices. I think the $1K price of the X was off-putting to quite a few potential customers who had previously gotten flagship devices that started at $649. The 8 used the same four-generation old design with big bezels and was $50 more expensive. While the A11 processor was more powerful than the A10, I believe with a normal generational increment in processing and a small increase in base storage that the perception of the 8 was it wasn't generally worth the $150 premium over a comparable 7.
If Apple can hit that sweet spot of having a flagship quality device that starts around $700 then I think there is a lot of potential for people with 6, 6s, and 7 devices to upgrade this year. On the other hand, if it releases a deliberately crippled device with marginal RAM, minimal storage, an A11 or even an A10 processor, and a cut-down camera in an attempt to preserve the luxury exclusivity of the X then I think it could backfire.
What people are forgetting is that this year the iPhone X will be priced much lower at something like $799. Don't be surprised if you see a ton of iPhone Xs this holiday for that reason.
Personally, I don't think the SE 2 will follow in the footsteps of the first model. I think Apple was a bit overwhelmed by the popularity of the smaller screened SE and have decided this time around to release a smaller flagship phone in the Fall. If an SE 2 is released it won't have the latest and greatest, it'll be the same style with internals upgraded to last year's tech and the price kept the same.
I highly disagree with Apple re-releasing an iPhone 5 design this or next year. An iPhone X styled SE would sell like crazy. Apple isn't into holding on to old tech, they want as many users possible to be on board with new features to move tech forward. I expect all new models to have Face ID etc.
Awesome news. When you look at the stock price of Amazon stock and some others I won't mention you have to wonder what Apple's could be if perceptions could be changed.
Services will play a large role in changing valuation perceptions. Services, due to their nature of being recurring revenue, garner a higher price to sales ratio (7:1) versus hardware (4:1). For a long time Apple has traded less than 4:1, but growing services revenues in the mix could boost the overall valuation ratio to 4.5-5:1, adding $200-300 billion on top of Apple’s current market cap.
The potential supercycle is going to depend on how Apple positions the rumored full-screen LCD devices. I think the $1K price of the X was off-putting to quite a few potential customers who had previously gotten flagship devices that started at $649. The 8 used the same four-generation old design with big bezels and was $50 more expensive. While the A11 processor was more powerful than the A10, I believe with a normal generational increment in processing and a small increase in base storage that the perception of the 8 was it wasn't generally worth the $150 premium over a comparable 7.
If Apple can hit that sweet spot of having a flagship quality device that starts around $700 then I think there is a lot of potential for people with 6, 6s, and 7 devices to upgrade this year. On the other hand, if it releases a deliberately crippled device with marginal RAM, minimal storage, an A11 or even an A10 processor, and a cut-down camera in an attempt to preserve the luxury exclusivity of the X then I think it could backfire.
The higher priced flagships are acting to build a huge wave of users continuing to hang onto their current iPhone models. Apple might be very savvy in this respect. Knowing that people are hanging onto iPhones longer they are skimming the cream off the top of the market with these new models, especially the X which they likely would be supply constrained in producing at double the volume (if, for example, it were priced more attractively). So they are letting the future upgrade wave build, knowing that they can bring those users in at any time by releasing a new set of iPhones that are more compelling, either through price or capabilities, or both, as the average handset age within that wave stretches. The super cycle is under Apple’s control and I believe it’s using this year, and possibly next year, to manage the transition to full screen Face ID AR capable models without subjecting its entire user base to any early teething pains in the process. But the wave is coming.
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The reality is, that Apple continues to support updates for any iPhone with a 64 bit ARM processor, lead by the iPhone 5S which was released in September, 2013.
Pretty big deal.
I highly disagree with Apple re-releasing an iPhone 5 design this or next year. An iPhone X styled SE would sell like crazy. Apple isn't into holding on to old tech, they want as many users possible to be on board with new features to move tech forward. I expect all new models to have Face ID etc.