Apple Pay may account for half of mobile wallet users by 2020

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in iPhone
In two years from now as many as 225 million people may be using Apple Pay on mobile devices, according to research estimates published on Monday.

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By 2020, the "OEM pay" market -- meaning platforms like Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Samsung Pay -- should hit 450 million users, Juniper Research said. The firm specifically noted it's expecting half of these people to be using Apple Pay, despite the broader global popularity of Android phones.

"We believe that growth over the next five years will continue to be dominated by offerings from the major OEM players," wrote Juniper's Nitin Bhas. "Additionally, we now have the likes of Huawei Pay and Fitbit Pay launching in several markets; this is now included in Juniper's contactless forecasts."

Fitbit Pay rolled out with the Ionic smartwatch last year, and has so far been limited to that and the Versa. Google Pay is supported by many more devices, even with the fragmentation of Android.

Apple Pay has been supported on iPhones and iPads since 2014, the Apple Watch since 2015, and Macs since the introduction of Apple Pay on the Web. Touch Bar-equipped MacBook Pros can use Apple Pay without a companion device.

Looking again at its 2020 target, Juniper suggests that OEM pay systems will top $300 billion in transactions, accounting for 15 percent of all contactless in-store payments.

Apple Pay is continuing to evolve, for instance through the introduction of PayPal-like Apple Pay Cash transfers and the switch from Touch ID to Face ID on the iPhone X. More devices are likely to adopt Face ID, such as upcoming iPhones and iPads.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 18
    macguimacgui Posts: 848member

    Apple Pay may account for half of mobile wallet users by 2020


    Not if Apple doesn't get actually aggressive about getting vendors to accept and advertise they accept Apple Pay. Apple talks about all the banks being added to the Apple Pay fan club. But until more Apple customers know that more vendors are accepting it, it's practically languishing.

    C'mon c'mon, Apple! AP commercials!  My local MacDonald's has been accepting AP since early days, and their staff is often surprised that it's used even though they see a lot of iPhones.

    When chatting up people with an iPhone, I find a lot of them don't really know what AP is and a few who have still never heard of it. 

    C'mon c'mon!
    edited July 30 artdentclaire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 18
    jdgazjdgaz Posts: 290member
    macgui said:

    Apple Pay may account for half of mobile wallet users by 2020


    Not if Apple doesn't get actually aggressive about getting vendors to accept and advertise they accept Apple Pay. Apple talks about all the banks being added to the Apple Pay fan club. But until more Apple customers know that more vendors are accepting it, it's practically languishing.

    C'mon c'mon, Apple! AP commercials!  My local MacDonald's has been accepting AP since early days, and their staff is often surprised that it's used even though they see a lot of iPhones.

    When chatting up people with an iPhone, I find a lot of them don't really know what AP is and a few who have still never heard of it. 

    C'mon c'mon!
    Tend to agree. Apple has never really done a good job of educating their buyers about the tools they deliver. Fortunately the competition is even worse. Apple Pay should be taught in every Today at Apple event + + +.
    jbdragonclaire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 18
    jdgaz said:
    macgui said:

    Apple Pay may account for half of mobile wallet users by 2020


    Not if Apple doesn't get actually aggressive about getting vendors to accept and advertise they accept Apple Pay. Apple talks about all the banks being added to the Apple Pay fan club. But until more Apple customers know that more vendors are accepting it, it's practically languishing.

    C'mon c'mon, Apple! AP commercials!  My local MacDonald's has been accepting AP since early days, and their staff is often surprised that it's used even though they see a lot of iPhones.

    When chatting up people with an iPhone, I find a lot of them don't really know what AP is and a few who have still never heard of it. 

    C'mon c'mon!
    Tend to agree. Apple has never really done a good job of educating their buyers about the tools they deliver. Fortunately the competition is even worse. Apple Pay should be taught in every Today at Apple event + + +.

    I don't think Apple has a choice.

    The number one reason to use Apple Pay is security. Tapping your card (or phone or watch) are all easy to do. Apple should be doing more to promote the security aspect of Apple Pay (instead of the convenience aspect). I think the reason they don't is because of agreements they have with card issuers.

    It wouldn't look good for Apple to heavily promote that tapping your phone is MORE secure than your card, as it would also imply tapping cards is LESS secure. Indirectly Apple would be showing tap & pay cards in a negative light - not good when banks are trying to get consumers to use tap & pay.

    This is the only reason I can think of why Apple hasn't been aggressive in promoting the security of Apple Pay.
    claire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 18
    macgui said:

    Apple Pay may account for half of mobile wallet users by 2020


    Not if Apple doesn't get actually aggressive about getting vendors to accept and advertise they accept Apple Pay. Apple talks about all the banks being added to the Apple Pay fan club. But until more Apple customers know that more vendors are accepting it, it's practically languishing.

    C'mon c'mon, Apple! AP commercials!  My local MacDonald's has been accepting AP since early days, and their staff is often surprised that it's used even though they see a lot of iPhones.

    When chatting up people with an iPhone, I find a lot of them don't really know what AP is and a few who have still never heard of it. 

    C'mon c'mon!

    You have a narrow view of the world. In the US it's slow, but around the world tap & pay is very common. Over 95% of my transactions are done via my Apple Watch. The only time I can't use Apple Pay are the rare occasions a retailer doesn't accept it or when I purchase something more expensive (over the limit).
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 18
    FolioFolio Posts: 368member
    Yes, even though you can ask Siri for nearby stores and restaurants that accept Apple Pay, it would be good of Apple to offer email sign up to people to get them accustomed to it, better security, speed, etc. and the local vendors near you via Siri. In fact, Apple really needs to overhaul their email offerings to customers. I reluctantly opted out of Apple email since I was getting to many suggestions for TV shows, books, apps, etc. it seemed like spam. I complained directly to Apple a week ago. And as of now anyway you CANNOT winnow that down, and only get news on Apps, since they lump it all together. Crazy! Apple is still a sleeping giant. Still a long way to go to utilize services in its customer base.
  • Reply 6 of 18
    FolioFolio Posts: 368member
    Make that "groggy giant" in services. Since it's what Fortune 100 territory already.
  • Reply 7 of 18
    macguimacgui Posts: 848member
    What 'tap & pay cards' are you talking about?

    There might be a case of Apple biting the financial arm of Apple Pay, maybe. But they can always back channel AP security awareness.

    Using Apple Pay is one of the few areas where security and convenience intersect with no significant compromise. Typically, you must sacrifice more convenience as security increases.

    Regardless, at this pace I think the 2020 estimate is overly optimistic.
    Soli
  • Reply 8 of 18
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,137member
    macgui said:
    Not if Apple doesn't get actually aggressive about getting vendors to accept and advertise they accept Apple Pay. Apple talks about all the banks being added to the Apple Pay fan club.

    […]

    When chatting up people with an iPhone, I find a lot of them don't really know what AP is and a few who have still never heard of it. 

    C'mon c'mon!
    Despite having a fraction of the number of NFC-capable devices in use has been leading the pack almost since Apple Pay was introduced, and they've done this without being "aggressive" so why don't think this trend will continue? Are others being more dominant? Do you think that people will jump from the iPhone to a Galaxy phone to get Samsung Pay because they don't know Apple Pay exists?

    This was never going to be an overnight conversation, but it's being adopted faster than I expected. Now, Apple Pay Cash—which they also advertise—will make Apple Pay an even easier step for many as they see APC as a clear benefit in ease, security, and lack of potential hidden fees that PayPal and others may offer.

    But until more Apple customers know that more vendors are accepting it, it's practically languishing.
    It's certainly not languishing, but if you really want more customers to know that vendors are accepting it there is something you can do about it. You can order a booklet of assorted decals from Apple (which they've offered for free since AP was launched):


    You might say, "that's not my responsibility," but are serious about wanting customers to know that Apple Pay is an option at places that you frequent? I know I do. I hand them out and explain them, as needed, not because I give two shits about helping Apple, but because I want *Pay (Apple Pay, Android Pay, Samsung Pay) to become so commonplace that carrying a physical credit or debit card is no longer the norm, and society has less card-related theft as a result. 

    Pro Tip: The packet has many stickers for the register (one-sided) and glass windows (two-sided), each in various sizes. Instead of just giving over some stickers, get the manager/owner involved by asking which size stickers do you want. In my experience they're much more likely to have them placed the next time you go in and not have misplaced them.

    C'mon c'mon, Apple! AP commercials!  My local MacDonald's has been accepting AP since early days, and their staff is often surprised that it's used even though they see a lot of iPhones.
    Your McDonald's likely was accepting Apple Pay from day one since they already had terminals for NFC-based payments in most stores. If you eat there you should check out their mobile app. It's a great way to save time during the lunch rush and there's probably a deal that will save you $1–3 on your order.
    edited July 30 claire1
  • Reply 9 of 18
    nunzynunzy Posts: 647member
    These analysts are always wrong. Don't believe a word they say.
  • Reply 10 of 18

    You have a narrow view of the world. In the US it's slow, but around the world tap & pay is very common. Over 95% of my transactions are done via my Apple Watch. The only time I can't use Apple Pay are the rare occasions a retailer doesn't accept it or when I purchase something more expensive (over the limit).
    It’s true that in the U.K. (and Europe) contactless cards are now the norm, so the infrastructure is there. I rarely even carry my wallet now since almost 100% of my offline purchases are via ApplePay. Last month I paid the £200 for my car service by ApplePay and the manager couldn’t believe his eyes! I just wish more stores updated their systems to prevent the £30 contactless cap kicking in. Tesco has this and it drives me nuts.
    Rayz2016watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 18
    macgui said:
    What 'tap & pay cards' are you talking about?
    In the U.K. most recent cards (debit and credit) have a contactless function that allows instant payment for up to £30. Every so often the card machine will ask for your PIN number to authorise the transaction. The banks will reimburse any fraudulent transactions as long as they are informed of a lost or stolen card promptly. The cards use NFC technology so the terminals also work with phones. The £30 limit doesn’t apply to ApplePay transactions because every payment is ‘authorised’ but some merchants haven’t updated their systems to allow this.
    chiawatto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 18
    claire1claire1 Posts: 327unconfirmed, member
    The knockoffs piggy backing Apples hard work.

    I hope we see LGPay, HTCPay, HuaweiPay etc. just for droid fragmentation purposes.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 18
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,137member
    claire1 said:
    The knockoffs piggy backing Apples hard work.

    I hope we see LGPay, HTCPay, HuaweiPay etc. just for droid fragmentation purposes.
    This is one area in which I would love to have as many copycats as possible. Having Android Pay and Samsung Pay using the same system as Apple Pay is good for all customers and allows the eventual need to not have physical cards on hand move even faster. I'm quite happy they're all—so far—adopting the same nomenclature framing, which is why you'll see me reference *Pay in my posts. As long as they use the same backend setup where the financial institution generates an "alias" virtual card number to tie to your physical card number and a cryptogram for that device which you have to authenticate when setting up, then it all adds to the overall security of the system.

    We will probably see similar setups with Swatch Group, Fitbit, and other devices that are kept on your person and can easily provide NFC.

    edited July 31
  • Reply 14 of 18
    DAalsethDAalseth Posts: 251member
    A few months ago my Credit Union finally changed card services so our new MasterCard would work with ApplePay. I set up the card in my wallet. Time passed. Last weekend I deleted the card and moved Wallet back into the “Never Used “ folder. Half of the stores I frequent still don’t support tapping. Mention ApplePay and they stare at you. Their are two stores around here that I know support ApplePay. Tim Horton’s, where I pay cash, and Londin Drugs, a place I visit maybe twice a year. ApplePay is great. Love the extra security. But it just doesn't happen for me in my area. A number of stores are still trying to push their own payment systems, with their own apps, for their own stores. Others, mostly smaller places just are not bothering. I wanted ApplePay to be my go-to system. But I just started feeling that having my cc on my phone was more of a security risk than any benefit I might get from ApplePay. I’ll check back after things shake out in a few years.
  • Reply 15 of 18
    chiachia Posts: 681member
    DAalseth said:
    But I just started feeling that having my cc on my phone was more of a security risk than any benefit I might get from ApplePay. I’ll check back after things shake out in a few years.
    What you feel and reality are two different things: Apple Pay doesn’t keep the card details on the device:

    “The safer way to pay.

    When you make a purchase, Apple Pay uses a device-specific number and unique transaction code. So your card number is never stored on your device or on Apple servers, and when you pay, your card numbers are never shared by Apple with merchants.”

    https://www.apple.com/uk/apple-pay/


  • Reply 16 of 18
    chiachia Posts: 681member
    webweasel said:

    You have a narrow view of the world. In the US it's slow, but around the world tap & pay is very common. Over 95% of my transactions are done via my Apple Watch. The only time I can't use Apple Pay are the rare occasions a retailer doesn't accept it or when I purchase something more expensive (over the limit).
    Last month I paid the £200 for my car service by ApplePay and the manager couldn’t believe his eyes! I just wish more stores updated their systems to prevent the £30 contactless cap kicking in. Tesco has this and it drives me nuts.
    I suspect Tesco doesn’t adopt this limit so that it can promote its own PayQuik app which requires giving Tesco your banking details. 
    In view of the latest revelations of the Dixon Carphone Warehouse data breach, I’m loathe to leave my card and other financial details with any retailer.

    I’m fortunate enough to live an area with a choice of competitors, so I tend to go to Sainsbury’s and Waitrose who’ve fully adopted Apple Pay; it does contribute to making the shopping experience easier and more pleasant.

    It’s short-sighted of Tesco not to adopt Apple Pay: they’re effectively making shopping more difficult for those who are actually willing to spend more.
    webweasel
  • Reply 17 of 18
    macguimacgui Posts: 848member
    Despite having a fraction of the number of NFC-capable devices in use has been leading the pack almost since Apple Pay was introduced, and they've done this without being "aggressive" so why don't think this trend will continue? Are others being more dominant? Do you think that people will jump from the iPhone to a Galaxy phone to get Samsung Pay because they don't know Apple Pay exists?

    It's clear by those questions you've chosen to read into what I posted, and not what I've posted, for reasons known only to you. There was absolutely no implication of any of that on my part.

    It's irrelevant to me that Apple 'leads the pack'.  I use Apple Pay whenever and wherever I can. Unfortunately, progress has been very slow as far as I'm concerned. Apple should be doing more to advertise this feature. 

    I say that AP is languishing or very close to it, given the paucity of places accepting it.  I never expected this to be an overnight transition, but it's going slower than I expected. And I hold Apple responsible for that.

     but if you really want more customers to know that vendors are accepting it there is something you can do about it. You can order a booklet of assorted decals from Apple (which they've offered for free since AP was launched)

    I do want more customers to know about it, and I do something about by chatting them up. NO, I'm NOT going to order decals, nor will I wear a sandwich board. The fact that someone might think I'm shirking my responsibility still doesn't relieve Apple of their responsibility to do a better job.


    You might say, "that's not my responsibility," but are serious about wanting customers to know that Apple Pay is an option at places that you frequent?

    To be more accurate, I damn well say it's not my job. It IS the job of management to inform their customers. Some do so, many do not. Some of the readers I've seen make no indication they accept NFC payment. Management can fix that by improving customer awareness for every customer they serve. I have other things to do.


    Your McDonald's likely was accepting Apple Pay from day one since they already had terminals for NFC-based payments in most stores. 

    Uh, no. The three stores near me may have had the capability since day one, but they certainly were not accepting it then. I only know because I was there. Day One, early days... That's not relevant. The relevant point was their employees seldom seemed to know, and often new employees still don't. Why is that you ask? Because their management doesn't see Apple Pay as a priority in their training.

    PRO TIP: When an employee has to be told how to conduct an Apple Pay transaction by the customer, the customer can them contact McDonald's via the address on the receipt and advise Customer Service of the situation. In return you get a free Quarter Pounder. You may surmise how I know this.

    I AM serious that Apple improves Apple Pay awareness and acceptance. Every time I shop, I ask a clerk or manager if they are handy, if they do or will be accepting Apple Pay. Then I notify Apple Feedback of the interaction and my desire to see more vendors accepting it.

    That it's not as much as I could do is not my concern. That my 'seriousness' is not the same as yours is not my concern. That this is not what Guy Kawasaki might do is not my concern. 

    My concern is that Apple should be doing more, and I see no sign that they are. I don't see it as a given that Apple Cash will significantly increase the number of vendors using Apple Pay. 

    Some POS terminals already contain the needed NFC kit for contactless payment. I would like to see them accept Apple Pay.

    Maybe if fifty people a day, I said fifty people a day walked in, handing out decals, chatting up customers, and walked out without buying anything, they might think it's a movement. Yeah! Don't worry Apple, I got this.

  • Reply 18 of 18
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,137member
    macgui said:

    To be more accurate, I damn well say it's not my job. It IS the job of management to inform their customers. Some do so, many do not. Some of the readers I've seen make no indication they accept NFC payment. Management can fix that by improving customer awareness for every customer they serve. I have other things to do.

    Everything you wrote screams entitlement. You want the business to advertise Apple Pay. You want Apple to advertise Apple Pay. You want management and all the employees to have as much knowledge about it as forum members here. You probably even want them to mention it to you as a payment option when you make a purchase.

    Me, I will look for the NFC symbol to be printed on the card swipe PIN pad or to appear on the display once they enter the total. Because so many switched to new devices that accept chipped cards over the last couple years and because NFC predates the chip card requirement in the US by several years I find that most of the places I shop (and nearly all mom-and-pop shops) accept Apple Pay.

    Personally, I prefer to be proactive about my own security. But, hey, you have every right to keep saying "it's not my job" to have more convenience and more security In your life despite how blatantly incorrect that statement is.
    edited July 31
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